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Cincinnati Reds 2023 (sell the team Bob)

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Some Sunday morning musings

Going back to the date this team became this team (May 26th which was the Friday night of the 3 game sweep of the Cubs):
Reds MLB ranks according to FG

wRC+: 4th (117) behind ATL, Texas and LAA
rest of the Central
StL: 14th (103)
Mil: 25th (87)
Pit: 26th (85)
ChC: 27th (83)

wOBA
Reds: 2nd (.357)
StL: 15th
Mil: 24th
Pit: 25th
ChC: 27th

BsR (baserunning-however they calculate it):
Reds: 1st 7.9 (2nd place is Arizona at 7.1)
ChC: 7th
Mil: 14th
Pitt: 16th
StL: 30th

Overall team WAR
Reds: 3rd (8.8) behind ATL and Texas
StL: 18th (3.8)
Mil: 21st (3.5)
Pit: 25th (2.4)
ChC: 26th (2.1)

Some component stats:
Runs scored: Reds are first in all MLB with 237 (just ahead of ATL and Texas)
Stolen Bases: 1st in MLB with 74. Arizona is second at 50.
Home Runs: 5th (60). ATL is 1st with fucking 85! They are a machine.
OBP: Reds are 1st at .355
SLG: Reds are 3rd at .469
ISO: 4th (.198) behind ATL, LAA and LAD

They avoid making outs better than anyone, have power (now) and gain extra bases with elite baserunning.

So, they are far and away the best team in the NL Central at run creation (best in all MLB actually in terms of runs scored). I normally don't cherry pick dates for a sample that fits the argument but to me you can throw out the early season stuff because it's a team with different players. Not only are they new, they are young so this is them learning on the job so to speak.
 
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Now the Run prevention side of things for the same period (5/26 through yesterday, 7/8)

Runs allowed:
Reds are t25th with Oakland by giving up 206 runs (our friends in ATL have given up the second fewest runs in baseball in this span. They are a machine)

They accomplish this dubious feat by
walking too many: 29th in MLB in BB allowed with 156. This is 3 walks off the worst mark in all of MLB.
giving up too many HR's: 27th in MLB with 57 allowed, better only than WAS and COL.
Starters ranks
K/9: 21st
BB/9: 27th
HR/9: 28th
GB%: 30th

If this staff was just one guy- Being an extreme flyball pitcher who doesn't miss many bats and walks a lot of batters is no way to make a living. When half your games are in GABP, it's death.

Bullpen
K/9: 30th
BB/9: 23rd
HR/9: 24th
GB%: 7th

If this bullpen was just one guy- I'm not quite sure how the motherfucker does it because he misses no bats, walks too many and gives up too many HR's.

The defensive metrics are pretty bad as well.

It's safe to say we are seeing a team winning with elite run creation that overcomes dreadful run prevention. The rest of the teams in the Central aren't pitching/defending that much better than Cincinnati to offset the Red's huge advantage in offense. The Braves, on the other hand, are elite at both. It's remarkable actually.

So let's enjoy the show but keep in mind that historically good pitching shuts down good hitting so unless we drastically improve in run prevention, there could very well be a series or stretch of games where they hit a very rough patch.
 
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