I was going to post this in the 2008 BCS Rankings thread, but after watching gatorubet and BB73 go at it for a few pages, I figured I'd post here to avoid it getting buried in that cyber landfill. 
After having a few cold ones, I started to wonder just how good our chances are at finishing in the top five this year, in either poll. The AP coaches and coaches polls are virtually identical aside from having Florida and Oklahoma flip-flopped from each other, so my following guess work would apply to both. But for reference purposes, I'll use the AP poll, the current top nine of which are listed below (we're, of course, #10):
1. Florida
2. Oklahoma
3. Texas
4. Alabama
5. USC
6. Penn State
7. Utah
8. Texas Tech
9. Boise State
No matter had badly Florida or Oklahoma would lose, I think there's little chance we'd jump the loser of their game even if we were to blow out Texas (which ain't gonna happen). So, in my mind both will stay ahead of us, so neither will be one of the five teams we'd need to jump to finish in the top five. So, let's look at each game involving the other six of the seven teams currently ahead of us (Texas being the seventh):
#9 Boise State lost to #11 TCU by one point, so we'd jump Boise State and TCU wouldn't jump us, no matter how close out win over Texas would be. So, one down and four to go. A win against Texas obviously gets us past Boise State.
#8 Texas Tech vs. #22 Mississippi (Cotton Bowl). Not looking good for us here. Although Ole Miss beat Florida at Florida, I'm not holding my breath here. But, if TTU has major problems with the Rebels, I think we jump them with a win over Texas. We have to hope that TTU doesn't blow Mississippi out. A decent win against Texas and a non-blowout win by TTU (or, of course, a TTU loss) likely gets us past TTU.
#7 Utah vs. #4 Alabama (Sugar Bowl). A loss by Utah drops them below us should we beat Texas, no matter how closely they loss to Alabama and how closely we beat Texas. The problem is if Utah wins, which very likely would be by a small margin (I don't see any team being able to blow out Alabama even if The Tide has a bad day). Should Alabama lose, they'd probably be jumped only by Utah and the Rose Bowl winner (and also TTU if TTU wins big). I think we really need 'Bama to beat Utah.
#6 Penn State vs. #5 USC (Rose Bowl). We need USC to beat Penn State. It would be much easier to justify us jumping Penn State than us jumping USC (can you imagine the media shitstorm if we beat Texas, Penn State beats USC, and we end up ahead of USC despite our identical records and USC's 35-3 win over us?). It would be easy to negate Penn State's close win over us in The Shoe by pointing that they won the game mainly due to a mistake made by a true-freshman QB late in the game. Conversely, all the "We didn't have Beanie" and "we used two QBs" arguments for the USC debacle won't cut it for justifying us being ahead of USC should Penn State pull the upset. But, if our defense can shut down Penn State, I think USC's can, too.
So, I guess all this points to the fairly obvious: We we need the four teams ranked closest to us (Penn State, Utah, Texas Tech, and Boise State) to all lose and for us to beat Texas (I'd say by at least a TD, so that we'd jump Texas) for us to get into the top five. With Boise State's earlier loss, we now have only three more teams to root against. We may squeak into the top five even if Alabama and USC lose instead of Utah and Penn State, respectively, but I'd rather not rely on that.
After having a few cold ones, I started to wonder just how good our chances are at finishing in the top five this year, in either poll. The AP coaches and coaches polls are virtually identical aside from having Florida and Oklahoma flip-flopped from each other, so my following guess work would apply to both. But for reference purposes, I'll use the AP poll, the current top nine of which are listed below (we're, of course, #10):
1. Florida
2. Oklahoma
3. Texas
4. Alabama
5. USC
6. Penn State
7. Utah
8. Texas Tech
9. Boise State
No matter had badly Florida or Oklahoma would lose, I think there's little chance we'd jump the loser of their game even if we were to blow out Texas (which ain't gonna happen). So, in my mind both will stay ahead of us, so neither will be one of the five teams we'd need to jump to finish in the top five. So, let's look at each game involving the other six of the seven teams currently ahead of us (Texas being the seventh):
#9 Boise State lost to #11 TCU by one point, so we'd jump Boise State and TCU wouldn't jump us, no matter how close out win over Texas would be. So, one down and four to go. A win against Texas obviously gets us past Boise State.
#8 Texas Tech vs. #22 Mississippi (Cotton Bowl). Not looking good for us here. Although Ole Miss beat Florida at Florida, I'm not holding my breath here. But, if TTU has major problems with the Rebels, I think we jump them with a win over Texas. We have to hope that TTU doesn't blow Mississippi out. A decent win against Texas and a non-blowout win by TTU (or, of course, a TTU loss) likely gets us past TTU.
#7 Utah vs. #4 Alabama (Sugar Bowl). A loss by Utah drops them below us should we beat Texas, no matter how closely they loss to Alabama and how closely we beat Texas. The problem is if Utah wins, which very likely would be by a small margin (I don't see any team being able to blow out Alabama even if The Tide has a bad day). Should Alabama lose, they'd probably be jumped only by Utah and the Rose Bowl winner (and also TTU if TTU wins big). I think we really need 'Bama to beat Utah.
#6 Penn State vs. #5 USC (Rose Bowl). We need USC to beat Penn State. It would be much easier to justify us jumping Penn State than us jumping USC (can you imagine the media shitstorm if we beat Texas, Penn State beats USC, and we end up ahead of USC despite our identical records and USC's 35-3 win over us?). It would be easy to negate Penn State's close win over us in The Shoe by pointing that they won the game mainly due to a mistake made by a true-freshman QB late in the game. Conversely, all the "We didn't have Beanie" and "we used two QBs" arguments for the USC debacle won't cut it for justifying us being ahead of USC should Penn State pull the upset. But, if our defense can shut down Penn State, I think USC's can, too.
So, I guess all this points to the fairly obvious: We we need the four teams ranked closest to us (Penn State, Utah, Texas Tech, and Boise State) to all lose and for us to beat Texas (I'd say by at least a TD, so that we'd jump Texas) for us to get into the top five. With Boise State's earlier loss, we now have only three more teams to root against. We may squeak into the top five even if Alabama and USC lose instead of Utah and Penn State, respectively, but I'd rather not rely on that.
