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Game Thread CFP Semifinal: Ohio State vs. Clemson, Sat 12/31 @ 7p ET, ESPN

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FILM STUDY: OHIO STATE'S GAME PLAN FOR TAKING DOWN CLEMSON IN THE FIESTA BOWL

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As a football junkie, watching hours of Clemson film over the past month has been an absolute pleasure. As an Ohio State alum, the experience hasn't been quite as enjoyable.

In total, the Tigers are clearly one of the most complete and talented teams in the country and deserve all the praise heaped upon them over the past 12 months. Though they lost a close game to Pittsburgh and kept a few games closer than they should've been, discount Dabo Swinney's Tigers at your own risk.

Though the Buckeyes possess plenty of skill and natural ability on their own, they won't simply be able to show up and push their opponents around in this Fiesta Bowl. Though talent and execution almost always trump scheme in any game, the smallest of play-calling adjustments could make the difference between teams as loaded as these two.

With that in mind, here are three key areas that I believe could help the Buckeyes come out on top in what is sure to be an epic contest between two heavyweight programs:

THE QB RUN GAME

Good teams like Florida State and Virginia Tech that feature downhill rushing attacks saw limited success against the Tiger defense and only kept things close thanks to turnovers and trick plays. Conversely, Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson likely clinched the Heisman after his performance in Death Valley, racking up 162 yards on the ground to go with 295 through the air.

Clemson safety Jadar Johnson made waves earlier this week when he said the Tigers had faced better quarterbacks then Ohio State's J.T. Barrett, but lost in the bulletin-board material was an obvious focus of his team's upcoming game plan:

"I'm not taking anything away from him, he's definitely a good player but I feel like his strong point is on his legs. If we can limit him with that we'll be able to play."

Entire article: http://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-...an-for-taking-down-clemson-in-the-fiesta-bowl
 
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Jaxbuck said:
They played Louisville, VT, Pitt and FSU which are all comparable offenses to OSU. They gave up 35+ points to all of them and didn't keep any of them far off their season averages at all.

This isn't the '85 Bears we are talking about here
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Yep. Elite, or even excellent, defenses don't give up 35+ points in four regular games.
 
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Doing my best @DaddyBigBucks impression, I went through and tallied up the offensive points scored by our opponents in regulation against all their other FBS opponents except us, and then compared those total with what they scored against us:

scoring-diff-01.png

So, our opponents on average scored 17.5 points fewer against us than they did against other defenses. This is somewhat skewed, however, by lower scoring teams playing fairly well against our defense, which likely played down to the competition a bit (and the fact we were nearly everyone's "Super Bowl" on their schedule). To get a better idea of how we do when the defense is challenged, I took the four top-scoring opponents we faced and saw how we did against them:

scoring-diff-02.png

The scoring differential now jumps up to an astounding 26.5 points. Throw out Tulsa and it's still 22.4 points, or over three TDs. So, let's use that. Clemson averages 40.2 PPG, so if the defense ramps up to the level of competition like it did even against only OU, PSU, and TSUN, that's holding Clemson to under 18 points. It's totally achievable since NC State (#29 scoring defense 22.8 PPG) held them to 17 points (in regulation, lost in OT) and Auburn (#5 scoring defense, 15,6 PPG) held them to 19. Hell, I'll take holding Clemson to 20 points...
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
Doing my best @DaddyBigBucks impression, I went through and tallied up the offensive points scored by our opponents in regulation against all their other FBS opponents except us, and then compared those total with what they scored against us:

View attachment 14734

So, our opponents on average scored 17.5 points fewer against us than they did against other defenses. This is somewhat skewed, however, by lower scoring teams playing fairly well against our defense, which likely played down to the competition a bit (and the fact we were nearly everyone's "Super Bowl" on their schedule). To get a better idea of how we do when the defense is challenged, I took the four top-scoring opponents we faced and saw how we did against them:

View attachment 14735

The scoring differential now jumps up to an astounding 26.5 points. Throw out Tulsa and it's still 22.4 points, or over three TDs. So, let's use that. Clemson averages 40.2 PPG, so if the defense ramps up to the level of competition like it did even against only OU, PSU, and TSUN, that's holding Clemson to under 18 points. It's totally achievable since NC State (#29 scoring defense 22.8 PPG) held them to 17 points (in regulation, lost in OT) and Auburn (#5 scoring defense, 15,6 PPG) held them to 19. Hell, I'll take holding Clemson to 20 points...
Click to expand...


Great post, I agree :wink:

Jaxbuck said:
Stealing a page from @DaddyBigBucks playbook.

OSU and Clemson defense vs Opponents points per game (i.e. how does the opponents offense do vs OSU/Clemson defense in relation to their per game average). I have removed all non defensive points allowed for both teams.

Sorted by opponents offensive rank

View attachment 14617



OSU faced four offenses in the top 25. They held them to an average of 24.6 points below their average. These teams averaged 16 ppg vs OSU.

Clemson faced four offenses in the top 33. They held them to an average of 2.4 points below their average. These teams averaged 37 ppg vs Clemson.

It's hard not to be encouraged by this.
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Jaxbuck said:
and for OSU/Clemson offense vs opponent defensive ppg (D_PPG)

View attachment 14618

Clemson has faced one (1) top 10 defense and scored 2 points more than the average opponent

OSU has faced two (2) top 5 defenses and scored an average of 12.5 points more than the average opponent

Clemson has faced more top 50% defenses (64th or better) than OSU has, 10 to 6

Clemson has averaged 12.5 ppg higher than the average opponent vs top 64, OSU has averaged only 9.5 ppg higher than average.
Click to expand...
 
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MililaniBuckeye said:
Doing my best @DaddyBigBucks impression, I went through and tallied up the offensive points scored by our opponents in regulation against all their other FBS opponents except us, and then compared those total with what they scored against us:

View attachment 14734

So, our opponents on average scored 17.5 points fewer against us than they did against other defenses. This is somewhat skewed, however, by lower scoring teams playing fairly well against our defense, which likely played down to the competition a bit (and the fact we were nearly everyone's "Super Bowl" on their schedule). To get a better idea of how we do when the defense is challenged, I took the four top-scoring opponents we faced and saw how we did against them:

View attachment 14735

The scoring differential now jumps up to an astounding 26.5 points. Throw out Tulsa and it's still 22.4 points, or over three TDs. So, let's use that. Clemson averages 40.2 PPG, so if the defense ramps up to the level of competition like it did even against only OU, PSU, and TSUN, that's holding Clemson to under 18 points. It's totally achievable since NC State (#29 scoring defense 22.8 PPG) held them to 17 points (in regulation, lost in OT) and Auburn (#5 scoring defense, 15,6 PPG) held them to 19. Hell, I'll take holding Clemson to 20 points...
Click to expand...

Even better still considering OU scored on a Kick Return.
 
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