With Ohio State's big win on the road against Michigan State, it is now time to talk play-offs. And if it's time to talk play-offs, then it's also time to talk national championships.
The conventional wisdoms states that the 2014 Buckeyes cannot possibly win a national championship because they have a "bad loss" on their record, namely a 35-21 drubbing at the hands of a Virginia Tech squad that is struggling to become bowl eligible. Ohio State fans can point to a number of factors to excuse their team's performance against Virginia Tech - a rookie quarterback starting in just his second college game, a young and inexperienced offensive line, an amped up opponent that played over its head, and simple bad luck. But no amount of excuses can change the bottom line - the Virginia Tech loss was a bad one, a very bad one.
So the question remains: Can Ohio State survive that bad loss and win a national championship? Of course they can, because many other teams have done so in the past. Let's take a look:
1957 Ohio State - The Buckeyes opened their season at home with an 18-14 loss to TCU, a team that finished 5-4-1 on the season. The Buckeyes were able to recover and reel off nine straight wins, including victories against top-20 foes Iowa, Wisconsin, and Oregon in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State (9-1-0) won national championships from the UPI (coaches poll) and the FWAA (football writers), while Auburn (10-0-0) won the AP title.
1960 Minnesota - The Golden Gophers won their first seven contests in 1960, including a week seven victory against #3 Iowa. In a classic trap game, Minnesota lost at home to Purdue (4-4-1) in week eight by the score of 23-14. The Gophers finished their regular season with a win against Wisconsin and their final record of 8-1-0 was good enough to earn them the AP and coaches title that year, both of which were awarded before the bowl games had been played (in 1968, the AP began naming its national champion after the bowl games; the coaches poll followed suit in 1974). But the Purdue loss proved to be a bad omen. Minnesota went to the Rose Bowl and lost to PAC-8 champ Washington, 17-7, which led many to claim that the true national champion for 1960 was Ole Miss (who was 10-0-1 but had suffered a bad tie to a 5-4-1 LSU team).
1961 Ohio State - This Buckeye squad did not lose a game but they had a very bad tie. Again, Ohio State opened its season at home against TCU, and again TCU provided the only blemish on the Buckeyes' record in the form of a 7-7 tie. The Horned Frogs would finish the season at 3-5-2, while the Buckeyes would win their remaining eight contests, capping their fine season with a 50-20 annihilation of Michigan. With a record of 8-0-1, the Buckeyes finished second to Alabama (11-0-0) in both major polls, but they were able to earn the FWAA title. The Ohio State University claims a national championship for the 1961 season.
1965 Alabama - The Crimson Tide opened their 1965 campaign with a one-point loss at Georgia (6-4-0) and four weeks later tied Tennessee (8-1-2). Alabama entered the bowl season with an 8-1-1 record and a #4 ranking in the polls, but previously unbeaten #1 Michigan State lost in the Rose Bowl, previously unbeaten #2 Arkansas lost in the Cotton Bowl, and the Tide knocked off previously unbeaten #3 Nebraska in the Orange Bowl. The AP took a ballot after the bowl games and awarded its national title to Alabama (9-1-1).
1970 Nebraska - When #1 Texas and #2 Ohio State both lost their bowl games, Nebraska was able to back into a national championship with an 11-0-1 record. The Cornhuskers' tie came in a week two road game at Southern Cal, who finished the season at 6-4-1. Nebraska won the AP national title in 1970, with the coaches (pre-bowl) title going to Texas.
1974 Southern Cal - Oklahoma (11-0-0) was probably the best team in college football in 1974. The Sooners won the AP title, but because they were on probation they were ineligible for the coaches championship. As things turned out, the coaches championship would be decided in the Rose Bowl, where 10-1-0 Ohio State (with a bad loss to 7-3-1 Michigan State) would play 9-1-1 Southern Cal (with a bad loss to 6-4-1 Arkansas and a bad tie with 7-3-1 California). The Trojans won the game, and the coaches title, with a late touchdown and two-point conversion.
1975 Oklahoma - The date is November 8, 1975. The Oklahoma Sooners are defending national champions. They have not lost a game on the field in their last 37 attempts (although three of those wins were later forfeited). They have beaten those 37 opponents by an average score of 36-10. They are riding a 10-game winning streak against the hapless Kansas Jayhawks, who will undoubtedly become victim #38, especially because the game is being played in the friendly confines of Memorial Stadium. But no! In one of the biggest upsets of all time, Kansas (7-5-0) rises up and lays a 23-3 beat down on Oklahoma, dropping the Sooners from the top of both polls. Oklahoma won its final two regular season games and then beat #6 Michigan in the Orange Bowl to finish the season with an 11-1-0 record. When previously unbeaten #1 Ohio State fell to UCLA in the Rose Bowl (a monumentally bad loss), Oklahoma was able to reclaim the top spot in both major polls.
1977 Notre Dame - The Irish had a week two road loss to Ole Miss (6-5-0) and then went on a ten-game winning streak, with an average margin of victory of 39-11. Notre Dame capped its season with a 38-10 destruction of previously unbeaten #1 Texas in the Cotton Bowl, and that victory earned them both the AP and coaches titles for 1977.
1982 Penn State - In week five, the Nittany Lions traveled to Alabama and got rolled 42-21 by a Crimson Tide team that would finish the season with an 8-4-0 record. Penn State would recover and win its final seven games, including the regular season finale against #5 Pittsburgh and the Sugar Bowl against previously unbeaten #1 Georgia. Penn State earned both the AP and the coaches titles for the 1982 season.
1983 Miami - The Hurricanes were beginning to emerge as a football power in the early 80s, but their 1983 season got off to a very bad start. In their season opener, the Canes traveled to Gainesville and got blown out by the Gators, 28-3. Although Florida would finish the season with a 9-2-1 record and a #6 ranking in both polls, a 25-point loss is difficult to overcome no matter who lays it on you. But Miami somehow managed to accomplish that feat. The Canes won their final ten regular season games and then edged previously unbeaten #1 Nebraska in the Orange Bowl to secure the top spot in both major polls.
1990 Colorado - The Buffs tied Tennessee (9-2-2) on a neutral field in week one, and suffered a one-point road loss to Illinois (8-4-0) in week three, and then ran off ten straight wins. Colorado beat five ranked teams including #5 Washington and #6 Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl. No team was particularly outstanding in 1990, and Colorado was able to win the AP title with a 11-1-1 record.
1990 Georgia Tech - The Rambling Wreck had a mid-season tie with a mediocre North Carolina squad that finished with a 6-4-1 record. Georgia Tech played a Charmin soft schedule but they were the only team to finish the season without a loss (11-0-1), and that's got to be worth something. In 1990, it was worth a national championship in the coaches poll.
1998 Florida State - Okay, so Florida State did not win a national championship in 1998. But they had a chance to win one despite having a very bad loss on their resume'. The Seminoles entered the 1998 season at #2 in the polls, but an inexplicable loss to North Carolina State (7-5-0) seemed to crush their chances for a national title. Then in week nine, previously unbeaten #1 Ohio State suffered an even more inexplicable loss, at home, to 28-point underdog Michigan State (6-6-0). When it came time to pick two teams for the inaugural BCS title game, #1 Tennessee (12-0-0) was an easy selection. For the Volunteers' opponent, the committee chose Florida State (11-1-0, early bad loss) over Ohio State (10-1-0, late bad loss). The Noles lost to Tennessee, but they still had a shot for the crystal football even though they couldn't beat a bad North Carolina State team early in the season.
2003 LSU - In week six, the Bayou Bengals lost at home to Florida (8-5-0) by the score of 19 to 7. That bad loss was offset by two victories against #7 Georgia (regular season and SEC championship game) and one against #13 Ole Miss. LSU earned a spot in the BCS title game where they faced #1 Oklahoma, who somehow managed to retain their position atop the BCS rankings despite a very ugly 35-7 loss to Kansas State in the Big Twelve title game. LSU beat Oklahoma to and earned a BCS championship.
2003 Southern Cal - The Trojans suffered a week four road loss to California (8-6-0), but then ran the table to finish the season with a 12-1-0 record. Along the way, Southern Cal knocked off #9 Washington State and #6 Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Although the Trojans missed out on the BCS title game, they did win the AP national championship in 2003.
2007 LSU - The 2007 season was a crazy one in college football, as it seemed no one wanted to win it all that year. Ohio State finished the regular season with the #1 ranking after a bad loss to Illinois (9-4-0), and LSU finished at #2 in spite of two even worse losses (8-5-0 Kentucky and 8-5-0 Arkansas). LSU beat Ohio State in the BCS championship game, and that victory also earned the Tigers an AP title.
Before the BCS, a team needed to end its season at #1 in order to claim a national title. In the BCS era, a team needed to be in the top two slots in order to get a chance at the title. With the new play-off system, a team only needs to be one of the four best in the country to be in national title contention, which will make it much easier for teams to come back from one bad loss. Ohio State till has a lot of football left to play - a surprisingly strong Minnesota squad on the road, the hapless Indiana Hoosiers, the rivalry Game with Michigan, and then the Big Ten championship game. If the Buckeyes can run the table and finish the regular season at 12-1, then they could very well find themselves in the play-offs despite having suffered a really bad loss.
The conventional wisdoms states that the 2014 Buckeyes cannot possibly win a national championship because they have a "bad loss" on their record, namely a 35-21 drubbing at the hands of a Virginia Tech squad that is struggling to become bowl eligible. Ohio State fans can point to a number of factors to excuse their team's performance against Virginia Tech - a rookie quarterback starting in just his second college game, a young and inexperienced offensive line, an amped up opponent that played over its head, and simple bad luck. But no amount of excuses can change the bottom line - the Virginia Tech loss was a bad one, a very bad one.
So the question remains: Can Ohio State survive that bad loss and win a national championship? Of course they can, because many other teams have done so in the past. Let's take a look:
1957 Ohio State - The Buckeyes opened their season at home with an 18-14 loss to TCU, a team that finished 5-4-1 on the season. The Buckeyes were able to recover and reel off nine straight wins, including victories against top-20 foes Iowa, Wisconsin, and Oregon in the Rose Bowl. Ohio State (9-1-0) won national championships from the UPI (coaches poll) and the FWAA (football writers), while Auburn (10-0-0) won the AP title.
1960 Minnesota - The Golden Gophers won their first seven contests in 1960, including a week seven victory against #3 Iowa. In a classic trap game, Minnesota lost at home to Purdue (4-4-1) in week eight by the score of 23-14. The Gophers finished their regular season with a win against Wisconsin and their final record of 8-1-0 was good enough to earn them the AP and coaches title that year, both of which were awarded before the bowl games had been played (in 1968, the AP began naming its national champion after the bowl games; the coaches poll followed suit in 1974). But the Purdue loss proved to be a bad omen. Minnesota went to the Rose Bowl and lost to PAC-8 champ Washington, 17-7, which led many to claim that the true national champion for 1960 was Ole Miss (who was 10-0-1 but had suffered a bad tie to a 5-4-1 LSU team).
1961 Ohio State - This Buckeye squad did not lose a game but they had a very bad tie. Again, Ohio State opened its season at home against TCU, and again TCU provided the only blemish on the Buckeyes' record in the form of a 7-7 tie. The Horned Frogs would finish the season at 3-5-2, while the Buckeyes would win their remaining eight contests, capping their fine season with a 50-20 annihilation of Michigan. With a record of 8-0-1, the Buckeyes finished second to Alabama (11-0-0) in both major polls, but they were able to earn the FWAA title. The Ohio State University claims a national championship for the 1961 season.
1965 Alabama - The Crimson Tide opened their 1965 campaign with a one-point loss at Georgia (6-4-0) and four weeks later tied Tennessee (8-1-2). Alabama entered the bowl season with an 8-1-1 record and a #4 ranking in the polls, but previously unbeaten #1 Michigan State lost in the Rose Bowl, previously unbeaten #2 Arkansas lost in the Cotton Bowl, and the Tide knocked off previously unbeaten #3 Nebraska in the Orange Bowl. The AP took a ballot after the bowl games and awarded its national title to Alabama (9-1-1).
1970 Nebraska - When #1 Texas and #2 Ohio State both lost their bowl games, Nebraska was able to back into a national championship with an 11-0-1 record. The Cornhuskers' tie came in a week two road game at Southern Cal, who finished the season at 6-4-1. Nebraska won the AP national title in 1970, with the coaches (pre-bowl) title going to Texas.
1974 Southern Cal - Oklahoma (11-0-0) was probably the best team in college football in 1974. The Sooners won the AP title, but because they were on probation they were ineligible for the coaches championship. As things turned out, the coaches championship would be decided in the Rose Bowl, where 10-1-0 Ohio State (with a bad loss to 7-3-1 Michigan State) would play 9-1-1 Southern Cal (with a bad loss to 6-4-1 Arkansas and a bad tie with 7-3-1 California). The Trojans won the game, and the coaches title, with a late touchdown and two-point conversion.
1975 Oklahoma - The date is November 8, 1975. The Oklahoma Sooners are defending national champions. They have not lost a game on the field in their last 37 attempts (although three of those wins were later forfeited). They have beaten those 37 opponents by an average score of 36-10. They are riding a 10-game winning streak against the hapless Kansas Jayhawks, who will undoubtedly become victim #38, especially because the game is being played in the friendly confines of Memorial Stadium. But no! In one of the biggest upsets of all time, Kansas (7-5-0) rises up and lays a 23-3 beat down on Oklahoma, dropping the Sooners from the top of both polls. Oklahoma won its final two regular season games and then beat #6 Michigan in the Orange Bowl to finish the season with an 11-1-0 record. When previously unbeaten #1 Ohio State fell to UCLA in the Rose Bowl (a monumentally bad loss), Oklahoma was able to reclaim the top spot in both major polls.
1977 Notre Dame - The Irish had a week two road loss to Ole Miss (6-5-0) and then went on a ten-game winning streak, with an average margin of victory of 39-11. Notre Dame capped its season with a 38-10 destruction of previously unbeaten #1 Texas in the Cotton Bowl, and that victory earned them both the AP and coaches titles for 1977.
1982 Penn State - In week five, the Nittany Lions traveled to Alabama and got rolled 42-21 by a Crimson Tide team that would finish the season with an 8-4-0 record. Penn State would recover and win its final seven games, including the regular season finale against #5 Pittsburgh and the Sugar Bowl against previously unbeaten #1 Georgia. Penn State earned both the AP and the coaches titles for the 1982 season.
1983 Miami - The Hurricanes were beginning to emerge as a football power in the early 80s, but their 1983 season got off to a very bad start. In their season opener, the Canes traveled to Gainesville and got blown out by the Gators, 28-3. Although Florida would finish the season with a 9-2-1 record and a #6 ranking in both polls, a 25-point loss is difficult to overcome no matter who lays it on you. But Miami somehow managed to accomplish that feat. The Canes won their final ten regular season games and then edged previously unbeaten #1 Nebraska in the Orange Bowl to secure the top spot in both major polls.
1990 Colorado - The Buffs tied Tennessee (9-2-2) on a neutral field in week one, and suffered a one-point road loss to Illinois (8-4-0) in week three, and then ran off ten straight wins. Colorado beat five ranked teams including #5 Washington and #6 Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl. No team was particularly outstanding in 1990, and Colorado was able to win the AP title with a 11-1-1 record.
1990 Georgia Tech - The Rambling Wreck had a mid-season tie with a mediocre North Carolina squad that finished with a 6-4-1 record. Georgia Tech played a Charmin soft schedule but they were the only team to finish the season without a loss (11-0-1), and that's got to be worth something. In 1990, it was worth a national championship in the coaches poll.
1998 Florida State - Okay, so Florida State did not win a national championship in 1998. But they had a chance to win one despite having a very bad loss on their resume'. The Seminoles entered the 1998 season at #2 in the polls, but an inexplicable loss to North Carolina State (7-5-0) seemed to crush their chances for a national title. Then in week nine, previously unbeaten #1 Ohio State suffered an even more inexplicable loss, at home, to 28-point underdog Michigan State (6-6-0). When it came time to pick two teams for the inaugural BCS title game, #1 Tennessee (12-0-0) was an easy selection. For the Volunteers' opponent, the committee chose Florida State (11-1-0, early bad loss) over Ohio State (10-1-0, late bad loss). The Noles lost to Tennessee, but they still had a shot for the crystal football even though they couldn't beat a bad North Carolina State team early in the season.
2003 LSU - In week six, the Bayou Bengals lost at home to Florida (8-5-0) by the score of 19 to 7. That bad loss was offset by two victories against #7 Georgia (regular season and SEC championship game) and one against #13 Ole Miss. LSU earned a spot in the BCS title game where they faced #1 Oklahoma, who somehow managed to retain their position atop the BCS rankings despite a very ugly 35-7 loss to Kansas State in the Big Twelve title game. LSU beat Oklahoma to and earned a BCS championship.
2003 Southern Cal - The Trojans suffered a week four road loss to California (8-6-0), but then ran the table to finish the season with a 12-1-0 record. Along the way, Southern Cal knocked off #9 Washington State and #6 Michigan in the Rose Bowl. Although the Trojans missed out on the BCS title game, they did win the AP national championship in 2003.
2007 LSU - The 2007 season was a crazy one in college football, as it seemed no one wanted to win it all that year. Ohio State finished the regular season with the #1 ranking after a bad loss to Illinois (9-4-0), and LSU finished at #2 in spite of two even worse losses (8-5-0 Kentucky and 8-5-0 Arkansas). LSU beat Ohio State in the BCS championship game, and that victory also earned the Tigers an AP title.
Before the BCS, a team needed to end its season at #1 in order to claim a national title. In the BCS era, a team needed to be in the top two slots in order to get a chance at the title. With the new play-off system, a team only needs to be one of the four best in the country to be in national title contention, which will make it much easier for teams to come back from one bad loss. Ohio State till has a lot of football left to play - a surprisingly strong Minnesota squad on the road, the hapless Indiana Hoosiers, the rivalry Game with Michigan, and then the Big Ten championship game. If the Buckeyes can run the table and finish the regular season at 12-1, then they could very well find themselves in the play-offs despite having suffered a really bad loss.
