Big 10 Bowl Matchups

[BB73]

Only one of those things are likely and that is the first one and it doesn't matter. You might want to take a closer look at the BCS standings. When they debut today Illinois should be #15. That means that we would only need to jump one team to get to #14. Both BC and UT should be ranked ahead of us. If VT beats BC and LSU beats UT, shouldn't be too difficult, then Illinois would definitely be in the #14.

I agree with Illinois being #15 later today. I guess you simply took issue with my use of 'fairly likely' regarding their chances of moving up to 14. That may be likely, but it's not guaranteed, and it's just semantics I don't care to debate. I'd be happy with Illinois in the Rose Bowl, I was just making sure everybody understood the BCS mechanics to allow it.

I posted this in our BCS Projections thread last night:

Without the polls, computers, or tellshow being updated, I'm guessing the top of the BCS will look somthing like this tomorrow:

1. Mizzou
2. West Va.
3. tOSU
4. Georgia
5. LSU (still alive if Mizzou and W. Va lose)
6. Va Tech (anybody here or lower has no chance at the title game)
7. USC
8. Oklahoma
9. Kansas
10. Florida
11. Arizona State
12. Boston College
13. Hawaii
14. Tennessee
15. Illinois
16. Oregon

 

[Zem]

If OSU makes the title game then Illinois will go to the Rose. There is no way the Rose would pass on a BCS eligible Big Ten team with the #1 pick. Not after that fuss they made in 2003 when the Orange stole Iowa from them.

Iowa went undefeated in the Big10 that year, and had only one loss. Since Illinois has three losses, I'd think the Rose would select Oklahoma to play USC if the Sooners beat Missouri.

 

[holybuckeye33]

Iowa went undefeated in the Big10 that year, and had only one loss. Since Illinois has three losses, I'd think the Rose would select Oklahoma to play USC if the Sooners beat Missouri.

If the Sooners beat Missouri, they're going to the Fiesta. Big 12 champion automatically goes there.

 

[BengalsAndBucks]

Ok, I dont really understand the circumstances here for Illinios. I thought that if they ended up in the Top 14 of the BCS that they were eligible to be picked for a BCS game no matter who was in front of them. Then we are saying that if tOSU makes it to the title game, that the Rose would have the first selection of an at large. Can't they then select Illinios no matter what, as long as Illinios is top-14 in the BCS, and whoever has the last at-large selection gets stuck with an eligible Hawaii team?

 

[Zem]

If the Sooners beat Missouri, they're going to the Fiesta. Big 12 champion automatically goes there.

Okay, that must be a new thing since they added the extra game last year. Maybe the RB would choose Illinois. But Ill's relatively low ranking and record might counter-balance their affection for Big10 v. Pac10. If not IU or OSU, I think it'll be UGA, whom is a more nationally known brand than IU and would probably be perceived as a better matchup against USC. IU might buy up more tickets than UGA, though.

 

[BB73]

Ok, I dont really understand the circumstances here for Illinios. I thought that if they ended up in the Top 14 of the BCS that they were eligible to be picked for a BCS game no matter who was in front of them. Then we are saying that if tOSU makes it to the title game, that the Rose would have the first selection of an at large. Can't they then select Illinios no matter what, as long as Illinios is top-14 in the BCS, and whoever has the last at-large selection gets stuck with an eligible Hawaii team?

That is correct.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

(LSU would slaughter Hawaii, but that's beside the hypothetical point).

I don't think they would. I haven't been all that impressed by LSU's pass defense in the games I've seen them. No one in the country has a relentless passing attack like Hawaii's. If LSU could get consistent pressure on Brennan, then yeah they'd probably win...if not, they'll get ripped to shreds.

 

[Zurp]

Ok, I dont really understand the circumstances here for Illinios. I thought that if they ended up in the Top 14 of the BCS that they were eligible to be picked for a BCS game no matter who was in front of them. Then we are saying that if tOSU makes it to the title game, that the Rose would have the first selection of an at large. Can't they then select Illinios no matter what, as long as Illinios is top-14 in the BCS, and whoever has the last at-large selection gets stuck with an eligible Hawaii team?

That is correct, as long as there aren't any teams with automatic bids who are going to be left out, if the Rose Bowl takes Illinois. For instance, 5 bowls = 10 teams. 6 conferences give out automatic bids, and let's say teams 1 and 2 are Hawaii and Southern Mississippi, which gives them automatic bids (to the national championship game). And maybe Notre Dame gets their fancy-pants automatic bid for winning 5 games (I know - they get a bid if they're in the top 6 or 8 or something), and maybe Oregon ends up #4, behind #3 USC (and USC got the Pac-10 automatic bid). That's 10 teams right there. No bowl game may take anyone outside of those 10 teams.

But, back on subject, this year, the Rose Bowl is allowed to take anyone inside the top 12 or 14 or something, as long as they aren't already assigned to another BCS bowl game. If Illinois is ranked that highly, then you're right. I would guess, however, that they'd choose to take a team with only 1 or 2 losses. They may love tradition more than I love a cold beer on a warm Christmas morning, but they also love money that comes with a nationally interesting game. And I don't think USC-Illinois is as nationally interesting as other possibilities could be.

 

[daveeb]

Wisconsin accepts a bid to the Outback Bowl.

 

[Zem]

Doesn't this leave a vacuum in the Big10's Capital One Bowl slot if Illinois is invited to the BCS. All that has to happen is for ASU or Hawaii to lose. I suppose it would have to be Meesheegan vs. Florida to the Cap One. Egads, Mike Hart would need to have a once-in-a-lifetime game for scUM to have a chance. I'm assuming the Cap One isn't forced to choose the SEC CG loser, and I would think they'll go with UF.

 

[daveeb]

Call me crazy, but I think Michigan may have a chance in that matchup. Florida gives up 249 yards through the air per game. While their run defense only gives up 99 yards per game, their flaw through the air can be exploited by Chad Henne.

Plus, there has to be emotions going into Lloyd Carr's last bowl game and last game as coach. And, there are going to be feelings going through that locker room at a want for the ability to prove that they aren't just some random bad power team from the Big Ten. Manningham is going want to prove that he won't drop passes all day long.

If Henne can establish the passing game early on, it should open up some lanes for Mike Hart (Who should be filled with colorful comments throughout that game). Michigan looked really bad running the ball in one game all year: against Ohio State. And that is because Ohio State dominated the line of scrimmage. Florida will not be able to dominate a fired up Michigan offensive line.

I look at this Florida team, and I see a team that has to rely on outscoring their opponent. I don't mean that in a John Madden way. They have to rely on redeeming their defense all day. If Chad Henne, Mike Hart, and Mario Mannigham actually play as they should have all year, Michigan has a shot.

It will, however, take something that very few people have been able to do (And given Michigan's track record, still unlikely): Stop Florida 5 or 6 times. Like, a 3 and out. Or, only give up 2 first downs, and then force them out.

 

[SNIPER26]

The only problem with the UF/Michigan game is that UF would assrape us due to them having a mobile QB that can throw.

 

[WolverineTX]

Call me crazy, but I think Michigan may have a chance in that matchup.

Crazy! :crazy:

It will, however, take something that very few people have been able to do (And given Michigan's track record, still unlikely): Stop Florida 5 or 6 times. Like, a 3 and out. Or, only give up 2 first downs, and then force them out.

Bingo.

Personally, I think Tebow could beat us with two fractured hands. We're not in good shape.

 

[buckeyes_rock]

Call me crazy, but I think Michigan may have a chance in that matchup.

Crazy

 

[Zem]

<snip>
It will, however, take something that very few people have been able to do (And given Michigan's track record, still unlikely): Stop Florida 5 or 6 times. Like, a 3 and out. Or, only give up 2 first downs, and then force them out.

Yep, that's why I typed that Hart would need to have a huge day. They would probably need their time of possession to be 38 minutes or something astounding like that.

Originally Posted by Wolverine TX
Bingo.

Personally, I think Tebow could beat us with two fractured hands. We're not in good shape.

Hmm.. I had forgotten about that. Bad shoulder, broken hand, but still expected to be okay.. what is he, and android.