BCS Standings & Title Game Contenders - 2010 season

[Meyer]

If things turned out like this we might up with essentially 3 National Championships games. Auburn-Oregon, Michigan State-Mizzou, and TCU-Boise....

Of course it won't end up like this, but it would be some good TV. And hell, I wouldn't even mind it. It fuel the playoff fire like never before.

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

Auburn-Oregon - Putting the exclamation point on the phrase "Defense wins championships!"

Michigan State-Mizzou - Maybe if Bubba Smith and Kellen Winslow were in there prime and at their respective alma maters

TCU-Boise - Seen it. Yawn.

 

[BB73]

If things turned out like this we might up with essentially 3 National Championships games. Auburn-Oregon, Michigan State-Mizzou, and TCU-Boise....

Of course it won't end up like this, but it would be some good TV. And hell, I wouldn't even mind it. It fuel the playoff fire like never before.

Of course it won't end up like that, because if the Title Game is Oregon-Auburn, then the Rose Bowl will be taking one of Boise-TCU-Utah, but not two. :tongue2:

 

[JXC]

What matters is the final pecking order. Here's a guess at how things could project in the final BCS standings.

1) Unbeaten Auburn, with a win in the SEC Title game
2) Unbeaten Oregon
3) Unbeaten Sparty
4) Unbeaten Mizzou as a Big XII Champion
5) One-loss Alabama as SEC champion
6) Unbeaten Boise State
7) Unbeaten TCU
8) One-loss LSU/Auburn SEC Champion
9) Unbeaten Utah
10) One-loss Oklahoma with a win over Mizzou in the Big XII CCG
11) One-loss Ohio State
12) One-loss Oregon
13) One-loss Wisconsin

3, 4, 5, 9 and 10 are already out...

If Oregon slips up, Auburn loses the SEC championship game, and we win out, then it's going to be quite possible. According to this, you'd have TCU playing Boise if this happened. But it'd be hard for me to believe that the voters would let that happen. If the SEC East wins the SEC championship game, then the SEC champ is out. So the choices would be either TCU, Boise, one loss Pac-10 champ, one loss Big Ten champ, or one loss non conference champ (like LSU or Auburn).

I guess the question for Ohio State is whether they would go ahead of TCU and Boise. If no, then we have no shot. If yes, then we have a very real chance.

 

[Tonyank]

If TCU plays BSU for the MNC, ill lose faith in the NCAA

 

[cincibuck]

HTF do you get ranked #3, just 5 points behind #2 with this:

Mon, Sep 06 Virginia Tech 5 6 at Fed Ex Field 6:00 pm 33 - 30 (W)
ESPN
Sat, Sep 18 Wyoming 3 - at Laramie, WY 6:00 pm 51 - 6 (W)
CBS College Sports
Sat, Sep 25 Oregon State 3 24 Bronco Stadium 6:00 pm 37 - 24 (W)
ABC/ESPN

Sat, Oct 02 New Mexico State * 3 - at Las Cruces, NM 6:00 pm 59 - 0 (W)
KTVB
Sat, Oct 09 Toledo 4 - Bronco Stadium 6:00 pm 57 - 14 (W)
KTVB

Sat, Oct 16 San Jose State * 2 - at San Jose, CA 6:00 pm 48 - 0 (W)
KTVB

Tue, Oct 26 Louisiana Tech * 2 - Bronco Stadium 6:00 pm 49 - 20 (W)
ESPN 2

Sat, Nov 06 Hawai'i * - - Bronco Stadium 1:30 pm
ESPNU

Fri, Nov 12 Idaho * - - at Moscow, ID 7:00 pm
ESPN 2
Fri, Nov 19 Fresno State * - - Bronco Stadium 7:30 pm
ESPN 2

Fri, Nov 26 Nevada * - - at Reno, NV 8:15 pm
ESPN2
Sat, Dec 04 Utah State * - - Bronco Stadium 1:00 pm

This is flat out insane.

 

[JBaney45]

3, 4, 5, 9 and 10 are already out...

If Oregon slips up, Auburn loses the SEC championship game, and we win out, then it's going to be quite possible. According to this, you'd have TCU playing Boise if this happened. But it'd be hard for me to believe that the voters would let that happen. If the SEC East wins the SEC championship game, then the SEC champ is out. So the choices would be either TCU, Boise, one loss Pac-10 champ, one loss Big Ten champ, or one loss non conference champ (like LSU or Auburn).

I guess the question for Ohio State is whether they would go ahead of TCU and Boise. If no, then we have no shot. If yes, then we have a very real chance.

We could use Wisconsin getting knocked out of the way somehow, seems to be sort of a ceiling for us at this point

 

[OSU_D/]

What matters is the final pecking order. Here's a guess at how things could project in the final BCS standings.

1) Unbeaten Auburn, with a win in the SEC Title game
2) Unbeaten Oregon
3) Unbeaten Sparty
4) Unbeaten Mizzou as a Big XII Champion
5) One-loss Alabama as SEC champion
6) Unbeaten Boise State
7) Unbeaten TCU
8) One-loss LSU/Auburn SEC Champion
9) Unbeaten Utah
10) One-loss Oklahoma with a win over Mizzou in the Big XII CCG
11) One-loss Ohio State
12) One-loss Oregon
13) One-loss Wisconsin

3, 4, 5, 9 and 10 are already out...

If Oregon slips up, Auburn loses the SEC championship game, and we win out, then it's going to be quite possible. According to this, you'd have TCU playing Boise if this happened. But it'd be hard for me to believe that the voters would let that happen. If the SEC East wins the SEC championship game, then the SEC champ is out. So the choices would be either TCU, Boise, one loss Pac-10 champ, one loss Big Ten champ, or one loss non conference champ (like LSU or Auburn).

I guess the question for Ohio State is whether they would go ahead of TCU and Boise. If no, then we have no shot. If yes, then we have a very real chance.

*Edit* Well JBaney45 beat me to it...

One additional issue is #13 is in front of number #11 in BCS rankings and unless Michigan beat UW on 11/20 I don't see how OSU gets in front of them.

 

[BB73]

What matters is the final pecking order. Here's an updated guess at how things could project in the final BCS standings.

1) Unbeaten Auburn, with a win in the SEC Title game
2) Unbeaten Oregon
3) Unbeaten TCU (big win at Utah moved them up)
4) One-loss LSU/Auburn SEC Champion
5) Unbeaten Boise State
6) One-loss Wisconsin
7) One-loss Ohio State (computers won't make up for humans using head-to-head)
8) One-loss LSU not appearing in the SEC CCG
9) One-loss Oregon
10) One-loss Nebraska as Big XII Champion
11) One-loss Stanford
12) One-loss Okie St as Big XII Champion
13) One-loss Sparty

 

[NateG]

What matters is the final pecking order. Here's an updated guess at how things could project in the final BCS standings.

1) Unbeaten Auburn, with a win in the SEC Title game
2) Unbeaten Oregon
3) Unbeaten TCU (big win at Utah moved them up)
4) One-loss LSU/Auburn SEC Champion
5) Unbeaten Boise State
6) One-loss Wisconsin
7) One-loss Ohio State (computers won't make up for humans using head-to-head)
8) One-loss LSU not appearing in the SEC CCG
9) One-loss Oregon
10) One-loss Nebraska as Big XII Champion
11) One-loss Stanford
12) One-loss Okie St as Big XII Champion
13) One-loss Sparty

Agree with most... disagree with points highlighted.
If we can jump LSU then we can jump Wisky. If we are butted up, the comps can push a team.
SEC champ if only 1 loss is in title.
May be hard to jump Neb as B12 champ.

 

[BB73]

Agree with most... disagree with points highlighted.
If we can jump LSU then we can jump Wisky. If we are butted up, the comps can push a team.
SEC champ if only 1 loss is in title.
May be hard to jump Neb as B12 champ.

My projections are only intended to list the pecking order for the top-2 spots. So when I'm comparing Wiscy or Nebraska to tOSU, I'm doing so in a year-end scenario where there's only 1 team ranked ahead of them.

It's somewhat different when two teams are contending for the number 2 spot than contending for the #6 spot. The numbers of the computers tend to have less variance when there are only a couple of 1-loss teams, making it harder to jump a team that is 1 solid spot ahead in the hunman polls.

And I don't think a 1-loss LSU jumps TCU. LSU needed 13 men on the field to beat Tennessee, and a lucky bounce on a fake-punt 'lateral' to beat Florida, and the voters will remember that. And if Auburn loses very late, it will also hurt them with the voters. They also barely survived against Clemson early in the season.

 

[DallasHusker]

My projections are only intended to list the pecking order for the top-2 spots. So when I'm comparing Wiscy or Nebraska to tOSU, I'm doing so in a year-end scenario where there's only 1 team ranked ahead of them.

It's somewhat different when two teams are contending for the number 2 spot than contending for the #6 spot. The numbers of the computers tend to have less variance when there are only a couple of 1-loss teams, making it harder to jump a team that is 1 solid spot ahead in the hunman polls.

And I don't think a 1-loss LSU jumps TCU. LSU needed 13 men on the field to beat Tennessee, and a lucky bounce on a fake-punt 'lateral' to beat Florida, and the voters will remember that. And if Auburn loses very late, it will also hurt them with the voters. They also barely survived against Clemson early in the season.

Not arguing whether it SHOULD be this way or not, but it seems his point is valid that OSU doesn't have much chance to jump Nebraska, assuming Nebraska wins out and wins the B12 CCG. Last week OSU was 4 spots under Nebraska - this week they're still one spot under, even with Nebraska's close call against IA State. If Nebraska wins out, how could OSU jump them, with the significant disparity in the computer rankings?

 

[NateG]

My projections are only intended to list the pecking order for the top-2 spots. So when I'm comparing Wiscy or Nebraska to tOSU, I'm doing so in a year-end scenario where there's only 1 team ranked ahead of them.

It's somewhat different when two teams are contending for the number 2 spot than contending for the #6 spot. The numbers of the computers tend to have less variance when there are only a couple of 1-loss teams, making it harder to jump a team that is 1 solid spot ahead in the hunman polls.

And I don't think a 1-loss LSU jumps TCU. LSU needed 13 men on the field to beat Tennessee, and a lucky bounce on a fake-punt 'lateral' to beat Florida, and the voters will remember that. And if Auburn loses very late, it will also hurt them with the voters. They also barely survived against Clemson early in the season.

Right your projection has us jumping LSU without a CG appearance but not Wisky. Or that Wisky would get put in a title game before OSU or LSU with 1 loss. If Aub or LSU win the SEC CG with 1 loss they will get so much love from the system that they will make it to 2, even if Aub loses 1 game late and wins the SEC CG ala LSU in 07. I think Aub would have to lose 2 or lose in the CG for that 1 loss to affect them that much.

Nebraska would also be ahead of others besides a LSU SEC Champ due to the SOS that the comps have given the B12 if they win out.

If it came down to OSU/Wisky, there would be 3 parts. 1. voter push for money 2. comp gain per last 3 games and others is greater for OSU than Wisky 3. MOV per voters on similar games scUM/Iowa

 

[BB73]

Not arguing whether it SHOULD be this way or not, but it seems his point is valid that OSU doesn't have much chance to jump Nebraska, assuming Nebraska wins out and wins the B12 CCG. Last week OSU was 4 spots under Nebraska - this week they're still one spot under, even with Nebraska's close call against IA State. If Nebraska wins out, how could OSU jump them, with the significant disparity in the computer rankings?

Again, this is only based on the pecking order for BCS #1 and #2. I'm not trying to predict who'll finish BCS #5, #6, #7 because it's meaningless for the title game. I know it could be the Rose Bowl tiebreaker between Wiscy and tOSU, but that's not what this thread is about. THis thread is about who can make it to the BCS Title Game.

If several teams lose and Ohio State and Nebraska end up #2 and #3 in the human polls, I don't think Nebraska's computer advantage would be large enough to overcome the 2/3 part of the poll that is the human votes. All of the teams that would be losing in order to move tOSU and Nebraska up that high would close most of the gap in the computers between Nebraska and a tOSU team that wins out. The voters will consider tOSU's loss at Wiscy to be more forgiveable than a Husker home loss to 5-or-6 loss Texas, and remember Iowa State's failed 2-point conversion, and I'm envisioning a clear advantage for tOSU in the human polls.

 

[jimotis4heisman]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/storie...TAKE?SITE=OHCOL&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

The final Bowl Championship Series standings had to be corrected after a mistake was found that changed the rankings of Boise State and LSU, but did not affect any bowl matchups.
Jerry Palm, who runs the websites http://www.collegebcs.com and http://wwww.collegerpi.com , found a discrepancy in the Colley Matrix computer ratings, one of six used by the Bowl Championship Series to determine which teams play for the national championship and in some of the other marquee bowl games.
Wesley Colley says Palm, who verifies the Colley Matrix ratings, noticed the results of an FCS playoff game involving Appalachian State and Western Illinois had not been included in the data based used to generate the ratings.
In the revised standings, Boise State moves from 11th to 10th and LSU drops from 10th to 11th.
BCS executive director Bill Hancock said in a statement that he was "deeply disturbed" when he learned of the mistake.
"This error should not have happened and is unacceptable. The final standings have been corrected. Fortunately, it had no effect on any team's eligibility for the BCS games. But the simple fact that it could have means this issue will be near the top of the agenda for the conference commissioners' annual review next spring," Hancock said.
Colley also said that his rankings for Nebraska and Alabama were affected by the missing score, but BCS ratings for those teams were unchanged.

apparently somebody forgot to carry a 9er...