BCS predictions/discussion/Knock Em' Off

[Palpie]

The OU-OkSU game is irrelevant now that UT lost today, right? I would assume the tie breaker would be that OU beat UT earlier this season.

Actually it would eb a three way tie between OK, UT and OkSU. And according to ABC/ESPN it would go through all the tie breakers and the final one is highest in the BCS. That would likely be OK.

 

[playultimate]

I dont know how the actual points average out like points per spot in poll and computer spot but with lsu losing and at least kans or miss losing Ohio State is going to gain 1 spot in the usa poll on wvu, a half spot in the harris and go ahead of wvu by a quarter spot in the computers so by how close we are to wvu im not throwing out the possibility of a jump of wvu so we might be in right now.


ohio state avg comp with wins by top teams-24
wvu avg in comp with wins-23.75

ohio state usa poll-3 prev 5
wvu usa poll 2 prev 3

ohio state harris poll- 3 prev 5
wvu harris poll-2 prev 3.5

do your own math and help me cause im no bcs guru but that looks good enough to jump them.

this was a distinct possibility before we gave up our lead in the computers in the latest BCS (not sure why...we beat Scum, they beat Cincy). The computers are the one unknown. There's 5 computes that all likely use their own criteria. No doubt it get's closer, but being behind WV in 2/3rds of the BCS (harris and USA Today) is tough to overcome.

 

[buckeyemania11]

OU Wins The Big 12 Or West Virginia Loses And Ohio State Is In

Simple As That

 

[WaitingforKickoff]

I don't think anyone at espn realizes just how close we are to the NC game. They keep mentioning WVU but don't seem to realize we're an OU Big-12 CG win away from joining them.

either that or they are just burying their heads in the sand...

 

[jlb1705]

I dont know how the actual points average out like points per spot in poll and computer spot but with lsu losing and at least kans or miss losing Ohio State is going to gain 1 spot in the usa poll on wvu, a half spot in the harris and go ahead of wvu by a quarter spot in the computers so by how close we are to wvu im not throwing out the possibility of a jump of wvu so we might be in right now.


ohio state avg comp with wins by top teams-24
wvu avg in comp with wins-23.75

osu gains.01

ohio state usa poll-3 prev 5
wvu usa poll 2 prev 3

ohio state harris poll- 3 prev 5
wvu harris poll-2 prev 3.5

do your own math and help me cause im no bcs guru but that looks good enough to jump them.

The problem with your line of thinking is that the BCS standings are not calculated using the rankings from the polls. They are calculated as a percentage of possible vote-points each team receives. When there's a shakeup like this, you can't really know how these kind of things are gonna turn out without the votes being cast.

I really don't think Ohio State will be able to pass WVU without them losing.

 

[NateG]

yeah my thinking was 1(comp) x 3 x 3 = 2.33 osu
3 x 2 x 2= 2.33 wv

 

[jlb1705]

yeah my thinking was 1(comp) x 3 x 3 = 2.33 osu
3 x 2 x 2= 2.33 wv

That's the way it used to work. Not anymore.

 

[WaitingforKickoff]

The problem with your line of thinking is that the BCS standings are not calculated using the rankings from the polls. They are calculated as a percentage of possible vote-points each team receives. When there's a shakeup like this, you can't really know how these kind of things are gonna turn out without the votes being cast.

I really don't think Ohio State will be able to pass WVU without them losing.

Unless they either lose a key star player to injury or sneaks out with a W in a turnover fest. I think there would be a lot of discussions if WVU again loses metal focus on the field.

 

[Palpie]

Question: Should JT and/or the OSU AD/BIG 10 start campaigning for voters to jump OSU over WVU? I (very very biasedly) think there's a good arguement that OSU's resume is better than WVU's (and probably better than either of the big 12 teams). So should we be agressively trying to convince voters to reassess their ballots? It certianly seemed to help Urban last year.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Question: Should JT and/or the OSU AD/BIG 10 start campaigning for voters to jump OSU over WVU? I (very very biasedly) think there's a good arguement that OSU's resume is better than WVU's (and probably better than either of the big 12 teams). So should we be agressively trying to convince voters to reassess their ballots? It certianly seemed to help Urban last year.

Wait untill the dust clears and the pollsters have to start considering a KU/Mizzou vs WVU NC game.

You can bank on the fact it will at the very least become a highly debated and close call.

Obviously one more game goes our way and there is no beauty pagent but if it comes down to it between OSu and WVU for that #2 spot look for things to get real interesting.

WVU not only has to win these next two games they have to win pretty and pray they don't get an injury to Slayton or White. Even if they win and one of those guys goes down the pollsters will drop them.

They struggle with Uconn and or Pitt like they have with UC and L'ville the media will make them pay.

 

[Jaxbuck]

i'm fairly certain that the Nebraska debacle in 2001, followed by the Oklahoma debacle in 2003, in conjunction to what the voters did with Meatchicken in the final polls last year should be rather indicative of the BCS's attitude regarding MNC 'contenders' who don't win their own conference...

I would agree but if it comes down to a 1 loss Kansas and a 2 loss UGA I would still wager on the 1 loss team. 2 losses is the magic barrier even for SEC teams.

 

[CausticMick]

Wouldn't the CFB world be set on end and up in arms over an OSU/WVU BCS National Championship Game?!


The 323

The Team: Ohio St.
The Path: Kansas-Mizzou winner loses in the title game AND, LSU or WVU lose.
Chances to get there: Pretty good. They need some chips to fall, but it's certainly possible.
Why they should play for the title: The Buckeyes are consistent if nothing else. They have a great defense, a steady, conservative offense, and are well coached. They deserve.......ahhhhhh I can't do it. Fuck Ohio State. Fuck Jim Tressell. Thank God Illinois beat them and (hopefully kept them out of the title game). The Big 10 is a joke, surpassed only by OSU's nonconference schedule. If they somehow make the title game I am boycotting it. No joke. -Walter
Why they shouldn't: Because they got blown out in the title game last year, because they lost to Illinois, because the Big 10 sucks, because their non-conference wins (Washington? Please.) are pathetic. -Frazier
The Verdict: 5 JoePa's, ugh, not terribly worthy, not exactly assured.

The Team: West Virginia
The Path: Win out (UConn, Pitt) and Kansas-Mizzou winner loses, OR LSU loses.
Chances to get there: Pretty good. Big 12 title game will be rarified air for either team.
Why they should play for the title: They played one bad game months ago. They have a brilliant coach, a dynamic offense, and a vastly underrated defense. Their only getting better, and the Big East has a lot more depth than anyone gives them credit for. -Frazier
Why they shouldn't: They've beaten who exactly? Their signature win is over Cincinatti (wait is this basketball season), and they got pasted by a South Florida team that is reeling right now. General rule, if you have to beat UConn to win your conference and it's not in basketball, you're conference isn't very good. -Walter
The Verdict: 6 JoePa's, they definitely have a chance, but are they worthy?

Rebuilding, my ass...

 

[sandgk]

Wouldn't the CFB world be set on end and up in arms over an OSU/WVU BCS National Championship Game?!

Not as much as they would be over OSU vs. Kansas, or OSU vs. UGA for that matter.

Reason why? W. Va. was a popular pick to do well before the season started. none of OSU, UGA or KU was thought to be really in the mix.

 

[ChrisStassen]

Wouldn't the CFB world be set on end and up in arms over an OSU/WVU BCS National Championship Game?!

Maybe so, but that looks like the most likely single pairing now, at 41% likely.

I redid the calculations, to account for the LSU loss.

One issue that I can't easily account for in the calculations is the Big XII tiebreaker. Should Oklahoma lose to Oklahoma State, it is unclear who the Big XII title game representative would be. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas would be tied for the top of the Big XII South. The Big XII's tiebreakers (head-to-head, record in division, record vs. common opponents from the other division, record vs. 4th-place team in the division) would have no effect, down to the very last rule. The final Big XII tiebreaker is BCS standing, but it's pretty difficult to guess what what would be. Oklahoma would be considered the strongest team, and probably have the best computer rating, but in this hypothetical scenario they'd be coming in on a two-game losing streak.

Anyway, with the calculation assuming the Big XII South title game representative is Oklahoma, Ohio State is now at 59% to get to New Orleans. The full calculation is here:
OSU odds to BCS title game: 59%

The projected likelihood of matchups are:

41% Ohio State vs West Virginia
33% West Virginia vs Kansas
9% Ohio State vs someone else (Georgia, LSU, etc.)
8% West Virginia vs Missouri
7% Ohio State vs Kansas
2% Ohio State vs Missouri

And each team's chances to get to the title game (adds up to 200% since there are two teams going):

West Virginia - 83%
Ohio State - 59%
Kansas - 40%
Missouri - 9%
Someone else (both WVa and KU/MU winner lose) - 9%

 

[7Brutus7]

I don't want to get too ahead of anything here, but if WVU wins out i think you have to start looking at strength of schedule and in that case....


*Illinois is like 4 or 5 spots higher than South Florida
*The Big Ten should be ranked higher than the Big East (in a perfect world)


However they will have an extra win by playing one more game than us and going two weeks beyond what we played....but oh well, it should be interesting

and who would've thought that the some of the biggest games of the year for the Buckeyes would be the Big 12 championship, WVU-UConn, and WVU-Pitt



I love this season :)