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BCS predictions/discussion/Knock Em' Off

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Palpie said:
Question: Should JT and/or the OSU AD/BIG 10 start campaigning for voters to jump OSU over WVU? I (very very biasedly) think there's a good arguement that OSU's resume is better than WVU's (and probably better than either of the big 12 teams). So should we be agressively trying to convince voters to reassess their ballots? It certianly seemed to help Urban last year.
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I think that JT shouldn't have to campaign to move us up... I thought that Urban's playing up and campaigning for that title was completely awful and unprofessional. I don't think that JT is that much of a media whore to play that card.
 
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ChrisStassen said:
Maybe so, but that looks like the most likely single pairing now, at 41% likely.

I redid the calculations, to account for the LSU loss.

One issue that I can't easily account for in the calculations is the Big XII tiebreaker. Should Oklahoma lose to Oklahoma State, it is unclear who the Big XII title game representative would be. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas would be tied for the top of the Big XII South. The Big XII's tiebreakers (head-to-head, record in division, record vs. common opponents from the other division, record vs. 4th-place team in the division) would have no effect, down to the very last rule. The final Big XII tiebreaker is BCS standing, but it's pretty difficult to guess what what would be. Oklahoma would be considered the strongest team, and probably have the best computer rating, but in this hypothetical scenario they'd be coming in on a two-game losing streak.

Anyway, with the calculation assuming the Big XII South title game representative is Oklahoma, Ohio State is now at 59% to get to New Orleans. The full calculation is here:
OSU odds to BCS title game: 59%

The projected likelihood of matchups are:

41% Ohio State vs West Virginia
33% West Virginia vs Kansas
9% Ohio State vs someone else (Georgia, LSU, etc.)
8% West Virginia vs Missouri
7% Ohio State vs Kansas
2% Ohio State vs Missouri

And each team's chances to get to the title game (adds up to 200% since there are two teams going):

West Virginia - 83%
Ohio State - 59%
Kansas - 40%
Missouri - 9%
Someone else (both WVa and KU/MU winner lose) - 9%
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One other consideration that those odds don't account for.

LSU's loss opens the door for another situation where a team in the national title game could not be a conference champion.

As of now, before tomorrow night's game, it stands to reason that the "temporary" BCS standings are:

1) Kansas
2) WVU
3) Missouri
4) OSU

Let's say Kansas beats Missouri by 1. Maybe Missouri does not drop? Remember OSU/Michigan last year? Michigan was #2 before AND after that game. They did get jumped after Florida won the SEC, so there can still be movement, but if Kansas or Missouri win by 1, you could still see them in the top 3 with:

1) winner
2) WVU
3) loser
4) OSU

And then if the #1 team loses to OK, they could either not get knocked out of the top 2 (not likely), or they get dropped, and the loser of tomorrow's game slides up to the NC game (unless the voters pull a "Florida" and move OSU above the loser of that game).

Oh my.
 
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lawfive;1004666; said:
One other consideration that those odds don't account for.

LSU's loss opens the door for another situation where a team in the national title game could not be a conference champion.

As of now, before tomorrow night's game, it stands to reason that the "temporary" BCS standings are:

1) Kansas
2) WVU
3) Missouri
4) OSU

Let's say Kansas beats Missouri by 1. Maybe Missouri does not drop? Remember OSU/Michigan last year? Michigan was #2 before AND after that game. They did get jumped after Florida won the SEC, so there can still be movement, but if Kansas or Missouri win by 1, you could still see them in the top 3 with:

1) winner
2) WVU
3) loser
4) OSU

And then if the #1 team loses to OK, they could either not get knocked out of the top 2 (not likely), or they get dropped, and the loser of tomorrow's game slides up to the NC game (unless the voters pull a "Florida" and move OSU above the loser of that game).

Oh my.
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If Mizzou loses by 1 point, that will be their second loss and they will drop below OSU, a one loss team. Consider that to be a fact.
 
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lawfive;1004666; said:
Let's say Kansas beats Missouri by 1. Maybe Missouri does not drop? Remember OSU/Michigan last year? Michigan was #2 before AND after that game. They did get jumped after Florida won the SEC, so there can still be movement, but if Kansas or Missouri win by 1, you could still see them in the top 3 with:

1) winner
2) WVU
3) loser
4) OSU

And then if the #1 team loses to OK, they could either not get knocked out of the top 2 (not likely), or they get dropped, and the loser of tomorrow's game slides up to the NC game (unless the voters pull a "Florida" and move OSU above the loser of that game).

Oh my.
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Problem is that Mizzou has 1 loss already, a loss to Kansas no matter how close gives them 2...they are going to drop.

Say Mizzou beats kansas, the first "decent" team Kansas plays beats them will be the cry from the pollsters. They will drop. They are already behind 1 loss teams when they are undefeated, you think they could lose now and stay in the top 5? I say no way in hell.
 
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Jaxbuck;1004672; said:
Problem is that Mizzou has 1 loss already, a loss to Kansas no matter how close gives them 2...they are going to drop.

Say Mizzou beats kansas, the first "decent" team Kansas plays beats them will be the cry from the pollsters. They will drop. They are already behind 1 loss teams when they are undefeated, you think they could lose now and stay in the top 5? I say no way in hell.
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totally agree. good insight. great post.
 
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lawfive;1004666; said:
One other consideration that those odds don't account for.

LSU's loss opens the door for another situation where a team in the national title game could not be a conference champion.

As of now, before tomorrow night's game, it stands to reason that the "temporary" BCS standings are:

1) Kansas
2) WVU
3) Missouri
4) OSU

Let's say Kansas beats Missouri by 1. Maybe Missouri does not drop? Remember OSU/Michigan last year? Michigan was #2 before AND after that game. They did get jumped after Florida won the SEC, so there can still be movement, but if Kansas or Missouri win by 1, you could still see them in the top 3 with:

1) winner
2) WVU
3) loser
4) OSU

And then if the #1 team loses to OK, they could either not get knocked out of the top 2 (not likely), or they get dropped, and the loser of tomorrow's game slides up to the NC game (unless the voters pull a "Florida" and move OSU above the loser of that game).

Oh my.
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2 loss Missouri doesn't stay ahead of 1 loss Ohio State.

1 loss Kansas, with one of the worst schedules in college football does not stay ahead of OSU.
 
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Buckeye_Nate said:
2 loss Missouri doesn't stay ahead of 1 loss Ohio State.

1 loss Kansas, with one of the worst schedules in college football does not stay ahead of OSU.
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good points, but I am not so sure about the 1 loss Kansas. To your points, I agree, people have been complaining about their schedule all year....plus...a late season loss is always hard to overcome.

All I know...I wanna see a close game to the end...then someone run away with it. Just to be sure.
 
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lawfive;1004679; said:
good points, but I am not so sure about the 1 loss Kansas. To your points, I agree, people have been complaining about their schedule all year....plus...a late season loss is always hard to overcome.

All I know...I wanna see a close game to the end...then someone run away with it. Just to be sure.
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The only hope for a 1 loss kansas is that WVU goes down(as well as Mizzou) and the pollsters must choose from 1 loss Kansas and some 2 loss teams for the #2 spot.
 
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