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B10 title picture not all that unclear

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ScarletArrow said:
The picture is getting clearer.

Doesn't look like were going to be able to count on Purdue for anything.

Tiller has gone with a readshirt freshman QB mi-season - if that doens't say 'wait till next year' - I don't know what does.

I'm praying for a miracle upset at home against PSU next week.

I think Iowa can / will beat Wisky, but I don't know if anyone is going to beat PSU.
Click to expand...

I think Purdue will play spoilermaker role at least once this year. Hope its vs PSU. That new QB didn't look all that bad in a rough ass spot to make a start.

Sparty has my confidence as the one psycho team capable of getting shit hammered by Northwestern but ruining a good team like PSU's season. They are famous for it.
 
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With MSU appearing to go in the tank (gee, what a shock), Penn State's only real threat will be Wisconsin. Without a doubt, we have the toughest road to the title. I'd like for John L. and Stanton to right the ship, but don't count on it.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
I think Purdue will play spoilermaker role at least once this year. Hope its vs PSU. That new QB didn't look all that bad in a rough ass spot to make a start.

Sparty has my confidence as the one psycho team capable of getting shit hammered by Northwestern but ruining a good team like PSU's season. They are famous for it.
Click to expand...

Agreed on Purdue...tough place to get your first start. Things must be really bad for Tiller.

My fear w/ Sparty is that they used up their one spoiler win for the season against the Domers - but Stanton had an off day today...we'll see if he rebounds.
 
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I think the PSU/Wisconsin game is a toss up.
I hope Wisconsin wins because I can see them blowing another game.
Whereas if PSU wins, I can see them winning out...
We just need to take care of business.
If we go 9-2, and win in convincing fashion, we have a good shot at a BCS bowl still...
 
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Jax, the new Sagarin's are out. Ohio State now has played the toughest schedule and is ranked fourth overall.

We also are now ranked nearly 10 spots higher at #7 in the ELO rating that counts in the BCS. We should rise substantially in the BCS, and hopefully that will influence the human pollsters.

Now, here's what I am wondering. If we're the only one loss team, then we get the BCS bowl as Big Ten champions. If we and Penn State win out, do we have a chance for an at-large berth?


College Football 2005 thru Saturday, October 29, 2005 the BCS uses the ELO-CHESS from here
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.37 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO-CHESS | PREDICTOR
1 Texas A = 101.13 8 0 73.55( 33) 2 0 | 4 0 | 102.44 1 | 99.44 2
2 Southern California A = 100.99 8 0 74.66( 25) 2 0 | 3 0 | 99.74 2 | 101.64 1
3 Virginia Tech A = 96.52 8 0 72.41( 43) 0 0 | 2 0 | 99.09 3 | 93.98 4
4 Ohio State A = 92.16 6 2 81.20( 1) 0 2 | 3 2 | 90.69 7 | 93.07 5
5 Penn State A = 92.06 8 1 77.04( 11) 1 1 | 3 1 | 92.39 5 | 91.12 6
6 Notre Dame A = 89.57 5 2 80.18( 4) 1 1 | 1 2 | 85.27 19 | 95.03 3
7 Texas Tech A = 88.23 7 1 65.16( 97) 0 1 | 0 1 | 89.33 10 | 86.63 8
8 Oregon A = 88.20 7 1 75.55( 15) 0 1 | 2 1 | 89.59 9 | 86.36 9
9 Michigan A = 87.78 6 3 80.90( 2) 1 1 | 4 3 | 86.86 14 | 88.04 7
10 Miami-Florida A = 87.64 6 1 71.75( 48) 0 0 | 1 1 | 89.01 11 | 85.82 12
College Football 2005 thru Saturday, October 29, 2005 the BCS uses the ELO-CHESS from here
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.37 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO-CHESS | PREDICTOR
11 UCLA A = 86.87 8 0 69.03( 74) 0 0 | 1 0 | 91.46 6 | 82.99 18
12 Wisconsin A = 86.78 8 1 72.84( 38) 1 0 | 2 1 | 90.28 8 | 83.52 16
13 LSU A = 85.98 6 1 72.53( 42) 0 0 | 3 0 | 85.77 17 | 85.52 13
14 Florida State A = 85.19 7 1 68.87( 78) 1 0 | 2 0 | 88.08 13 | 82.27 20
15 Alabama A = 84.62 8 0 68.90( 76) 0 0 | 1 0 | 93.94 4 | 78.69 28
16 Florida A = 84.61 6 2 74.05( 29) 0 0 | 1 2 | 85.87 16 | 82.85 19
17 Colorado A = 84.29 6 2 74.57( 27) 0 2 | 0 2 | 86.24 15 | 81.99 21
18 Michigan State A = 83.84 5 3 75.46( 18) 1 2 | 1 3 | 81.31 26 | 86.03 10
19 Boston College A = 83.69 6 2 74.84( 22) 0 1 | 0 2 | 85.25 20 | 81.70 22
20 Minnesota A = 83.60 5 3 78.63( 9) 1 2 | 1 3 | 85.21 21 | 81.57 24
 
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Steve19 said:
Now, here's what I am wondering. If we're the only one loss team, then we get the BCS bowl as Big Ten champions. If we and Penn State win out, do we have a chance for an at-large berth?
Click to expand...

If I remember correctly, IF it's a Texas vs. USC Rose Bowl, the Fiesta gets first selection of at large berths... am I thinking in the correct direction?
The Fiesta Bowl has already sent a rep to one of our games this year (I forget which--gee, aren't I helpful) but we all know that Tempe LOVES the Bucks. I'd say if we do our part, and collect 3 more W's, then we've got a very good shot at a BCS berth, regardless of whether we get the Auto Bid.
 
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For an at large BCS we have to run the table and finish top 8 in the final BCS rankings. Now the question is can we jump that high? I think we can.

2 or 3 very overrated teams remain in our way UCLA, Miami and FSU are the ones I want to puke over when I see them ahead of us but each probably has 1 more loss coming and we should move up to 12 today due to the BC loss. So just doing that rough math you can make a plausible case for us finishing BCS top 8.

Also, PSU and Wisky are currently ahead of us in the BCS and they play each other this weekend. We pick up at least 1 BCS spot and get to beat up on Illinois at home to do it.
 
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If we lose to a BCS championship game participant and a BCS Big ten berth winner and that is it, I believe we will have a very good shot at an at large berth. Who else would get one? There are four.

Notre Dame
UCLA
VaTech if they don't win out
Maybe an SEC team
and us
 
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cincibuckeyenut said:
If we lose to a BCS championship game participant and a BCS Big ten berth winner and that is it, I believe we will have a very good shot at an at large berth. Who else would get one? There are four.

Notre Dame
UCLA
VaTech if they don't win out
Maybe an SEC team
and us
Click to expand...

Here's your current BCS top 15

[pre]<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblclbg5><TD class=yspdetailttl colSpan=2 height=18>BCS</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2 height=1><SPACER height="1" width="1" type="block"></TD></TR><TR><TD height=18> 1.</TD><TD>Texas</TD></TR><TR class=yspwhitebg><TD colSpan=2 height=1><SPACER height="1" width="1" type="block"></TD></TR><TR><TD height=18> 2.</TD><TD>USC</TD></TR><TR class=yspwhitebg><TD colSpan=2 height=1><SPACER height="1" width="1" type="block"></TD></TR><TR><TD height=18> 3.</TD><TD>Virginia Tech</TD></TR><TR class=yspwhitebg><TD colSpan=2 height=1><SPACER height="1" width="1" type="block"></TD></TR><TR><TD height=18> 4.</TD><TD>Georgia</TD></TR><TR class=yspwhitebg><TD colSpan=2 height=1><SPACER height="1" width="1" type="block"></TD></TR><TR><TD height=18> 5.</TD><TD>Alabama</TD></TR><TR class=yspwhitebg><TD colSpan=2 height=1><SPACER height="1" width="1" type="block"></TD></TR><TR><TD height=18> 6.</TD><TD>UCLA</TD></TR><TR class=yspwhitebg><TD colSpan=2 height=1><SPACER height="1" width="1" type="block"></TD></TR><TR><TD height=18> 7.</TD><TD>Miami (FL)</TD></TR><TR class=yspwhitebg><TD colSpan=2 height=1><SPACER height="1" width="1" type="block"></TD></TR><TR><TD height=18> 8.</TD><TD>LSU</TD></TR><TR class=yspwhitebg><TD colSpan=2 height=1><SPACER height="1" width="1" type="block"></TD></TR><TR><TD height=18> 9.</TD><TD>Penn State</TD></TR><TR class=yspwhitebg><TD colSpan=2 height=1><SPACER height="1" width="1" type="block"></TD></TR><TR><TD height=18> 10.</TD><TD>Florida State</TD></TR><TR class=yspwhitebg><TD colSpan=2 height=1><SPACER height="1" width="1" type="block"></TD></TR><TR><TD height=18> 11.</TD><TD>Oregon</TD></TR><TR class=yspwhitebg><TD colSpan=2 height=1><SPACER height="1" width="1" type="block"></TD></TR><TR><TD height=18> 12.</TD><TD>Wisconsin</TD></TR><TR class=yspwhitebg><TD colSpan=2 height=1><SPACER height="1" width="1" type="block"></TD></TR><TR><TD height=18> 13.</TD><TD>Ohio State</TD></TR><TR class=yspwhitebg><TD colSpan=2 height=1><SPACER height="1" width="1" type="block"></TD></TR><TR><TD height=18> 14.</TD><TD>Boston College</TD></TR><TR class=yspwhitebg><TD colSpan=2 height=1><SPACER height="1" width="1" type="block"></TD></TR><TR><TD height=18> 15.</TD><TD>Notre Dame</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>[/pre]

VT has to play Miami and probably the ACC champ game vs FSU(add 1 loss for each Miami and FSU)

LSU and now a 1 loss UGA play the SEC champ game(one of the 2 is gone)

PSU and Wisky play each other this week.(one of the 2 is gone)

UCLA has to play USC (more than likely will drop them below us)

PLUS we pick up USA and Harris poll points this week from BC's loss and 2 of our last 3 opponents are BCS top 25 so the computers will be there.

By my math we should be no worse than 12th later today and there are at least 4 and possibly 5 spots waiting to be jumped from the above teams losing.

12 minus 4 or 5 is 7th or 8th and thats all that we need.
 
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Walking around at the Texas game, I ran into reps from the Orange Bowl. They were in their official jackets and everything. I asked why they were out and about so early. They said they were there to scout out a team for the Orange Bowl, but unlike most games, they were here to scout the loser. The winner was going west.
 
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Well Steve it looks as though you were right.

Tellshow has only updated his BCS standings based on 2 computer polls and we are 11th in his projections.

I'm getting more and more confident that winning out=BCS one way or the other.
 
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Jax

You also forgot to mention that Bama and LSU play each other. So, that could be another spot that we move up. Realistically, if we are 11th after this week, we could move as high as 6th or 7th (considering we win out, which is far from certain).
 
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BearBuck27 said:
Jax

You also forgot to mention that Bama and LSU play each other. So, that could be another spot that we move up. Realistically, if we are 11th after this week, we could move as high as 6th or 7th (considering we win out, which is far from certain).
Click to expand...

I didn't forget to mention it, I forgot they played, lol.

But yes, the win out part of the equation has to be there, thats a given.

However, if we are indeed 11th now that means we have already jumped Wisky and so a new found spot from say LSU/Bama is a wash. I think 7th or 8th is the best we could do but it really doesn't matter. Anything better than 8 is just gravy, 8 is the magic #.
 
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