B10 title picture not all that unclear

[sandgk]

Any media member worth his salt knows that you're supposed to come up with some bullshit prediction during the preseason, and stick with it throughout the year, regardless of actual game results.

No slack being cut for the media from 73 these days

 

[Zurp]

This is all well and good, but for those of us who can barely remember which dresser drawer is for socks and which is for porn, it can all be simplified like this: OSU needs to win. If they win out, everything else will fall into place.

 

[jwinslow]

will the porn dresser be easier to find if we win out?

 

[Zurp]

will the porn dresser be easier to find if we win out?

You have an entire dresser devoted to porn? AWESOME!!

It's even funnier that you can't find this dresser easily enough.

My guess is that the porn will not be any easier to find if the Bucks win the rest of their games. I was just pointing out that I'm never going to remember scenarios that we need to hope for, but that it looks to me that if the Bucks win out, its going to be tough for any other team to also finish with just the one loss. I think that there will be only one 7-win team in the Big 10. And with the Bucks' schedule, I've got a pretty good feeling.

 

[JXC]

Mellonhead on ABC was going on and on about how muddled the B10 picture was but if you look its actually quite clear.

There are five 1 loss teams(PSU, Wisky, Iowa, NU, OSU)

PSU and Wiksy play each other so one won't make it.

We have already beaten Iowa and will play NU.

We do not play UW and have lost to PSU.

Soooo....

Ideallly we win out, PSU beats Wisky and then gets beaten the last weekend of the year @ MSU.

2nd best is we win out, Wisky beats PSU and then loses vs Iowa on the last weekend of the year.

3rd best is we win out, Wisky wins out and we split the B10 title, but they would get the BCS bid in a tie breaker so that would suck and isn't an option.

Bottom line is we have to win out and the other teams have a lot of football left to play.

PSU remaining sched:
@ Illinois
vs Purdue
vs Wisconsin
@ MSU

Wiksy remaining:
vs Purdue
@ Illinois
@ PSU
vs Iowa

We are either going to the BCS game (most likely Fiesta again) or the Citrus Bowl at worst imo.

Again...you assume we will win the rest of our games. I hope this is true, but it's a long season left. A lot of Buckeye fans were talking like we'd be 10-1 for sure before the PSU game. This team has the ability to go 9-2, but I think the main focus should be on winning the games we have...and if we do that...everything else can be sorted out later. But worst case scenerio isn't the Citruis Bowl...i'd say we still need to have a great finish to make a New Years bowl.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Again...you assume we will win the rest of our games. I hope this is true, but it's a long season left. A lot of Buckeye fans were talking like we'd be 10-1 for sure before the PSU game. This team has the ability to go 9-2, but I think the main focus should be on winning the games we have...and if we do that...everything else can be sorted out later. But worst case scenerio isn't the Citruis Bowl...i'd say we still need to have a great finish to make a New Years bowl.

Outback is New Years day as well, no way we fall any lower than that. Only potential loss left is scUM.

Fans looking ahead and not focusing on one game at a time has zero effect on the team actually winning or losing btw.

 

[Carmen Ohio]

This season it appears there is no clear favorite to win the Big Ten title. We can talk about what we hope will happen... but this year, nothing "makes sense" enough to say with any certainty who is going to win the conference. For example: Minnesota gets drubbed by Penn State who in turn barely lost to Michigan who Minnesota barely beat on the Wolverine's field. Minnesota then barely loses a home game to Wisconsin after the Badgers barely lost to Northwestern who was barely beaten by Penn State who barely beat us.

Iowa is gaining confidence, Purdue can't keep losing, Michigan may have awakened, Michigan State is pissed, Wisconsin is playing for the coach, Northwestern can score on anybody, Penn State is playing possessed, Minnesota is one dimensional but scary and we have the nation's best "D" (IMO) but a turnover-prone, inconsistent offense. The only confirmed doormats are Indiana and Illinois but inevitably they're going to take somebody out on their own field. It is unlikely to happen this weekend with us visiting Indiana and PSU at Illinois, but this year I wouldn't be shocked if something crazy happened.

The one thing you might be able to do is look at every team's schedule except Indiana and Illinois and assume they'll either win their home games or be very close at the end. You can then look at what kind of team they've struggled with this year to reasonably predict the outcome. I can't imagine a one-dimensional running team like Minnesota, or a pocket-passing Michigan to put up enough points to beat OSU. I'm much more concerned about Northwestern if we're going to continue this trend of turning the ball over.

My hope is that mathematically and through tie-breakers we have the title wrapped up before the Michigan game. Having said that my gut still tells me that we're going to have a bunch of two and three loss teams at the end of the season with OSU and PSU with one loss going into away games against Michigan and Michigan State respectively. With this crazy year in the Big Ten what happens then is anybodies guess.

 

[smitty03]

Penn State's chances of losing again have gotten much greater after the news of Williams being out the rest of the year.

I figured they would lose again regardless, but with the lose of an important piece to their offense like Williams, the chances are much greater.

 

[JXC]

Outback is New Years day as well, no way we fall any lower than that. Only potential loss left is scUM.

Fans looking ahead and not focusing on one game at a time has zero effect on the team actually winning or losing btw.

I know the fans don't...but people get ahead of themselves a lot. And...I sure as heck do not just take for granted we will be 8-2 on November 19th. Minnesota isn't a gimmie, and neither is Northwestern this year. Now...these are games we should win...and games I think we will win...but the games have still yet to be played. I feel as though our destiny in the Big 10 is in our own hands. If we win out, I don't think there is any way we won't be playing in the BCS. It is quite possible that come Nov 19. we may be the only 1 loss team in the Big 10 left...while scUM might still just have 2 losses. The game could still be for the Big 10 title...for both teams. It would be really nice to win the Big 10 this year though. Especially outright. It's the next best thing to winning the NC. It just SUCKS that the Rose Bowl is out of the picture because of the BCS.

 

[Carmen Ohio]

Penn State's chances of losing again have gotten much greater after the news of Williams being out the rest of the year.

I figured they would lose again regardless, but with the lose of an important piece to their offense like Williams, the chances are much greater.

It hurts them, but the key to Penn State's "O" this year has been Michael Robinson. Against us, I was counting on at least 3 bad decisions and he made none. I'm still shocked Michigan pulled that game out after you noticed Robinson found a new go-to-guy at the end. Still, Wisconsin looks like a toss-up and MSU looks like a loss.

 

[lvbuckeye]

Bingo. We'd be co-champs but for bowl purposes PSU gets the nod due to their win over us.

actually, that's somewhat incorrect, but in a convoluted sort of way:

B10 BCS tie breakers goes by
1. conf win %
2. overall win %
3. Head to head
4. Last to go rule

if we both win out, Penn State would win the Big Ten outright, due to the fact that they would have a better overall winning percentage... they did not lose an OOC game, and we did; so they are the Big Ten Champs if we both end up 7-1 in the Big Ten... they would be 10-1, and we would be 9-2, so even if they DIDN'T beat us head to head, they would still get the nod with an identical conference record... at any rate, the only way that we get the nod over the Nits is if they get another conference loss... they hold TWO tiebreakers against us... well, it's really three tiebreakers when you consider the 'last to go' rule... bottom line is, we REALLY need Penn State to lose another game... ah crap... i've just talked myself in such a circle that i agree with you... you said it much more succinctly...

it's kind of weird, but the Texas loss could potentially cost Ohio State the Big Ten title...

 

[Zurp]

actually, that's somewhat incorrect, but in a convoluted sort of way:


if we both win out, Penn State would win the Big Ten outright, due to the fact that they would have a better overall winning percentage... they did not lose an OOC game, and we did; so they are the Big Ten Champs if we both end up 7-1 in the Big Ten... they would be 10-1, and we would be 9-2, so even if they DIDN'T beat us head to head, they would still get the nod with an identical conference record... at any rate, the only way that we get the nod over the Nits is if they get another conference loss... they hold TWO tiebreakers against us... well, it's really three tiebreakers when you consider the 'last to go' rule... bottom line is, we REALLY need Penn State to lose another game... ah crap... i've just talked myself in such a circle that i agree with you... you said it much more succinctly...

it's kind of weird, but the Texas loss could potentially cost Ohio State the Big Ten title...

You and Mili are both right. But you're not arguing the same stuff, and Mili is more right than you are. In fact, he's just plain right.

For purposes of naming "Big 10 Champions," you look at only the conference records. If two teams end up 8-0 (2002), BOTH teams are conference co-champions, even though one team was 11-1 and the other was 13-0. If Ohio State ends up 7-1, and Penn State is 7-1, they will be co-champs, even though OSU is 9-2, and Penn State is 10-1.

For the "who goes to the BCS game" purposes, you then use the tie-breakers listed.

 

[wadc45]

Looking at the standings this weekend, it seemed to me the most likely scenario if we can win out is Penn State beats Wisconsin at home and then falls at Michigan State the following weekend. That is much more plausible than thinking that Wisconsin can go on the road and beat PSU and then Iowa go on the road and beat Wisconsin in Madison.

 

[BrutusBobcat]

You and Mili are both right. But you're not arguing the same stuff, and Mili is more right than you are. In fact, he's just plain right.

For purposes of naming "Big 10 Champions," you look at only the conference records. If two teams end up 8-0 (2002), BOTH teams are conference co-champions, even though one team was 11-1 and the other was 13-0. If Ohio State ends up 7-1, and Penn State is 7-1, they will be co-champs, even though OSU is 9-2, and Penn State is 10-1.

For the "who goes to the BCS game" purposes, you then use the tie-breakers listed.

Zurp is correct. Iowa were Big Ten co-champs in 2002 depite an OOC loss to Iowa State. Both Iowa and Ohio State finished their Big Ten schedule unbeaten in conference. I heard on ESPN that Iowa and Ohio State didn't play each other that year...I think Mark May mentioned it once or twice. :tongue2:

 

[ScarletArrow]

Ideallly we win out, PSU beats Wisky and then gets beaten the last weekend of the year @ MSU.

2nd best is we win out, Wisky beats PSU and then loses vs Iowa on the last weekend of the year.

3rd best is we win out, Wisky wins out and we split the B10 title, but they would get the BCS bid in a tie breaker so that would suck and isn't an option.

Bottom line is we have to win out and the other teams have a lot of football left to play.

PSU remaining sched:
@ Illinois
vs Purdue
vs Wisconsin
@ MSU

Wiksy remaining:
vs Purdue
@ Illinois
@ PSU
vs Iowa

The picture is getting clearer.

Doesn't look like were going to be able to count on Purdue for anything.

Tiller has gone with a readshirt freshman QB mi-season - if that doens't say 'wait till next year' - I don't know what does.

I'm praying for a miracle upset at home against PSU next week.

I think Iowa can / will beat Wisky, but I don't know if anyone is going to beat PSU.