Joe6809;1859894; said:
I'm not saying it will, but if that SC commitment happens, people are going to start flying off the handle about the "sanction" the NCAA put on their scholarship count, considering they're already 10 over the limit. I realize there are ways to play with the numbers, but 25 is 67% more than 15. That's a big margin of error.
And if the Walker commitment doesn't happen, and SC gets only 24 athletes, not 25, people will be calm?
USC only used 17 schollies last year, so they can get 8 early enrollees that would count against last year's total, not this year's. I believe that they already have 8 January enrollees, so that part of their class is done.
The limits for USC in 2011 are 15 schollies for the year, 75 total. However, they're trying to appeal the NCAA decision. Here's the potential results:
1. NCAA appeal not resolved by signing day. If this happens, I believe there are no sanctions in place as of signing day (the appeal postponed their enforcement), and USC can sign up to their 25 annual/85 total levels, just like any other FBS school. Given the scholarship levels they currently have (55-57 returning, I believe), that means they could actually have 8 early enrollees + ~20-22 LOIs signed this year, for a total of 28-30 athletes from the 2011 class as defined by Rivals.
2. NCAA rules against USC. Then USC has to greyshirt or rescind a couple of offers, as they can only use 15 schollies in 2011. However, the 8 early enrollees don't count against that 15--so if you look at the recruiting class as defined by Rivals, USC could still end up with 23 athletes from the 2011 class. (Note: USC has only 55-57 returning scholarship players, so it's the annual limit that is binding, not the total scholarship limit in this case.)
3. NCAA reduces the sanctions to 20 scholarships annually, 80 total. (Some here in LA believe that's the most likely scenario). In this case, USC could sign a total of 23-25 players because of the 80-schollie limit (the 23-25 estimate includes the 8 early enrollees--meaning there would be 15-17 players actually signing LOIs), as the binding constraint would be the 80 total schollies. In this case, USC's current commitments are very close to a "full class" right now.
So, long story short--given the NCAA rules and the fact that USC seems to already have 8 early enrollees...their class (as defined by Rivals) should be able to hit 23 at a minimum. No matter how morally questionable anyone finds Lane Kiffin...his class isn't outrageous given the way the NCAA counts scholarships. Lane still can't coach, mind you...but so far his class isn't too far out of hand.
However, if the NCAA does uphold the sanctions, it'll be interesting to see if Lane Kiffin rescinds an offer or two at the last minute. If this does turn out to be the case, I hope that Aundrey Walker's family and friends are looking out for him and making sure that he actually has the opportunity to sign the LOI that he wants. If Aundrey is seriously considering committing to USC, he may be part of a very dangerous numbers game, and I hope he's factored that into his decision.
