Are the Buckeyes more geared for a Ntl. Championship in 2010 or 2011

[NightmaresDad]

I would lean toward '11 as a better bet.

Next year, Iowa and Wisky are the next two best teams in the conference.

They return pretty much their whole starting teams.

We play them both at their place.

I think the DL takes a big hit with regard to depth, even if heyward and Gibson stay.
Although I have to admit it would be fun to see Simon and Larimore at tackles with Heyward and Gibson at ends.
So say - as long as Heyward stays - that our starting four are at least equal to if not slightly better than our starting four this year. We still lose all that experience and maturity, at least physically, that we had this year to be able to rotate very liberally throughout the season.
The young guys, expecially the tackles, will really have to step up.

The secondary is a big concern for me in '10. We saw the last couple of games how not-so-stellar they really were (exception Coleman) without the great consistent pass rush. Upside is that Hines can move to safety and hopefully we get Moeller back for the Star.

Offensively, my gosh except for J Boren, all the big-time talent will still be here in '11. How do we not get better and better on offense the next two years? Yeah, we'll be replacing both guards in '11, but every other position will be better and the depth will be much better quality. Linsley might just make us not miss J Boren too much anyway. Same kind of player.

 

[jlb1705]

Interesting to see people put an asterisk next to Pryor or talk about him right now as if he might leave early. He's a great athlete but he's nowhere near ready to be talked about as an early entrant.

The Buckeyes will need to win the title or come damn close for Pryor to be able to think about leaving after next year.

Since 1990, the first year that underclassmen could enter the NFL Draft, I count three "dual-threat" quarterbacks that were drafted in the 1st round as underclassmen: Michael Vick, Alex Smith & Vince Young. Calling Alex Smith a "dual-threat" QB may be stretching it a little bit, but that's another discussion entirely. All three of those QBs led their team to an undefeated regular season at one point or another along the way. For Pryor to be in a position to leave early, he'll likely have to do pretty close to the same thing.

 

[BigJim]

The quality of this year's seniors have absolutely nothing to do with whether OSU will more likely be heading toward a national championship in the 2010 or 2011 regular season. Bringing up how much would be lost with Denlinger has no bearing whatsoever. If anything, a better quality player graduating means theres a better chance that the backup is also high quality, not the other way around.

Also, just because 2010 is going to be loaded, as some have mentioned, doesn't mean 2010 should be more stacked than 2011. Most of the 2011 players will be the same ones on the stacked 2010 team! A year of growth/reps/etc. is huge. You have to look at who will be gone after the 2010 regular season and compare that to how much you expect everyone to improve. Yes next year's offense looks great. But unless someone leaves early, the only major losses are Sanz, Boren and Browning. Will those losses be more than the annual improvement you expect to see in the non-seniors? That along with possible early departures is what this debate should be focused on. Along with the schedule.

 

[jwinslow]

The quality of this year's seniors have absolutely nothing to do with whether OSU will more likely be heading toward a national championship in the 2010 or 2011 regular season.

Guys like Heyward & Boren don't grow on trees. OSU has an abundance of blue chip OL, and yet they don't have anyone else on Justin's level.

If anything, a better quality player graduating means theres a better chance that the backup is also high quality, not the other way around.

That doesn't make much sense.

Also, just because 2010 is going to be loaded, as some have mentioned, doesn't mean 2010 should be more stacked than 2011. Most of the 2011 players will be the same ones on the stacked 2010 team!

Boren, Heyward, Homan, Rolle will be awfully tough to replace. Chekwa, Torrence, Saine, Miller are also gone. That's probably 1/3 of the starting lineup.

A year of growth/reps/etc. is huge. You have to look at who will be gone after the 2010 regular season and compare that to how much you expect everyone to improve. Yes next year's offense looks great. But unless someone leaves early, the only major losses are Sanz, Boren and Browning. Will those losses be more than the annual improvement you expect to see in the non-seniors?

I'm not sure we've seen many offensive players take a big step forward between their jr & sr years.

That along with possible early departures is what this debate should be focused on

And how does one quantify the unpredictable amount that each underclassmen improves?

 

[BigJim]

Guys like Heyward & Boren don't grow on trees. OSU has an abundance of blue chip OL, and yet they don't have anyone else on Justin's level.

Heyward & Boren are juniors

If anything, a better quality player graduating means theres a better chance that the backup is also high quality, not the other way around.

That doesn't make much sense.

Let's say Denlinger graded at a B. That means his backup could arguably be as good as a B-. If Denlinger graded as a D yet still played that much then that doesn't speak well for next year. This doesn't really matter much in the 2010 vs. 2011 topic except that a possible major weak link is a lot harder to cover up in one year than two. (To be clear, I think Denlinger is a great player.)

Boren, Heyward, Homan, Rolle will be awfully tough to replace. Chekwa, Torrence, Saine, Miller are also gone. That's probably 1/3 of the starting lineup.

Very good. Getting closer to debating the topic at hand.

I'm not sure we've seen many offensive players take a big step forward between their jr & sr years.

I think that's an absolutely rediculous comment but let's say it's true. Do you seriously think 2011 is only going to see seniors starting on offense? That's literally impossible.

And how does one quantify the unpredictable amount that each underclassmen improves?

You don't. You make assumptions. There isn't a right or wrong answer at this point. Would you rather have next year Saine/Herron/etc. or take the chance that two years from now Herron/etc. will be better given what we know now. It's a tough question to answer but that doesn't mean we throw our arms up and not give your take.

 

[jwinslow]

Let's say Denlinger graded at a B. That means his backup could arguably be as good as a B-.

And he could be as terrible as an F. The starter's ability only limits the top end of the backups rating, it has no bearing on how bad it can be.

FWIW, Denlinger was the 3rd DT behind Larimore & Worthington. I'm excited for the next wave of DTs because of what John Simon has showed, not because Adam Bellamy must be really good because of how good the 2 deep was ahead of him. Bellamy is a good player, but it doesn't have anything to do with the starters, other than looking at a track record for position development.

 

[LordJeffBuck]

I think we lose too much on defense to feel comfortable about winning all our games next year.

2009 starter.......2010 starter...........upgrade/downgrade
DE: Gibson..........Williams..............slight downgrade
DE: Heyward.........Heyward...............slight upgrade
DT: Denlinger.......Larimore..............upgrade
DT: Worthington.....Simon.................upgrade
LB: Homan...........Homan.................slight upgrade
LB: Rolle...........Rolle.................slight upgrade
LB: Spitler.........Sabino/Sweat..........upgrade
_S: Coleman.........??????................major downgrade
_S: Hines...........Hines.................slight upgrade
CB: Torrence........Torrence..............slight upgrade
CB: Chekwa..........Chekwa................slight upgrade

I'm assuming that Heyward and Chekwa are staying and Gibson is leaving. I factored in a slight upgrade for each returning player. Larimore proved this year that he's a better payer than Denlinger, and Simon is probably the most talented DL on the team (yes, that's right - more talented than Gibson or Heyward). Nate Williams is a similar player to Gibson who has received valuable experience during his first two years, and should be able to take a step up as a starter next season. The only major loss is Coleman at safety, where the Buckeyes have no viable replacement at this point.

If Heyward were to leave, then that would be a major loss as well. Rob Rose (possible medical redshirt) and Melvin Fellows (never played a down of college football) would be his likely replacement, and both would be definite major downgrades.

I'm not really concerned about Chekwa leaving early, as Torrence is the real lock-down guy on this team, and there are plenty of young players with talent who could fill the vacant CB spot. I'd say that Chekwa's replacement would definitely be a downgrade, but perhaps not as great as most people would assume.

It might be surprisingly difficult to replace Anderson Russell as the nickel back.

The offense essentially returns intact next year, and the schedule is favorable, so it looks like 2010 is the ideal time to make the championship run.

 

[NFBuck]

Interesting to see people put an asterisk next to Pryor or talk about him right now as if he might leave early. He's a great athlete but he's nowhere near ready to be talked about as an early entrant.

This is absolutely true, but VY made drastic improvements between his sophomore/junior season and ended up coming out. How much effect his RS year had on that is possibly a factor as well though as those were his 3rd/4th years in Austin as opposed to 2nd/3rd...

 

[Steve19]

My opinion.

I couldn't care less which ESPiN announcers decide to pick Ohio State in their top whatever. When they are wearing that logo, they are all asshats in my opinion. Having spent years running Ohio State down, I think it will be great fun watching them kiss Jim Tressel's behind next year, like they knew it all along.

 

[BigJim]

And he could be as terrible as an F. The starter's ability only limits the top end of the backups rating, it has no bearing on how bad it can be.

What do you think the phrase "If anything" means... No shit he could be as terrible as an F.

FWIW, Denlinger was the 3rd DT behind Larimore & Worthington. I'm excited for the next wave of DTs because of what John Simon has showed, not because Adam Bellamy must be really good because of how good the 2 deep was ahead of him. Bellamy is a good player, but it doesn't have anything to do with the starters, other than looking at a track record for position development.

Don't spin my comments into me saying that I'm more excited about the younger guys because the seniors are good. That "If anything..." comment was simply a side note to the point that Denlinger leaving has nothing to do with comparing the 2010 and 2011 regular season teams.

I take it silence means you have no argument with my other responses to your comments?

 

[jwinslow]

I misread the senior quote.

I think that's an absolutely rediculous comment but let's say it's true.

Troy did, but there weren't that many dramatic transformations.

QB: Troy? Yes. Todd? No. Craig? No.
HB: Ross? No. Hall? No.
WR: Small? No. Robo? No. Robo? Yes. Hall? Eh. Childress? No.
OL: Cordle? Yes. Boone? No. Barton? Eh. Rehring? No. Person? No. Datish? Eh. Downing? Eh. Sims & Mangold? Yes, but they arguably took big steps earlier.
TE: Nicol? No. Hamby? No. Hartsock? Yes.

 

[lord vegas]

Do not forget about Moeller coming back. If his medical issues are behind him that is a HUGE edition to the defense.

 

[bukIpower]

For me it's next year in 2010.....

On offense
qb- Pryor will be better. Better put he'll be a better passer, and an even more effective runner now that we seem to have added the zone read in during this season. He'll be damn near unstoppable his final two years (he's staying in 2011 too)

RB- With Saine, Herron, Hall, Hyde (?), and the incoming guys we'll have great depth.

WR- We lose Small, but everyone else essentially returns. The offseason will give guys like Carter a chance to put on a little weight which would be huge. Next year having Posey, Sanzo, and Carter will be quite good. Posey/Carter out wide with Sanzo in the slot.

Oline/TE- The online is going to be nasty next year. Boren, Brewster, Adams, Shuggarts, Browning, Hall, and the other guys like Luongo etc will be the deepest part of our team next year. We should be running for 200 yards every game. As for TE we got Stoney coming as a better recieving threat (he reminds me of Rudolph from ND).

On Defense
This is the area where we're going to lose a couple people possibly, but if there's any place i'd rather lose talent its on defense. Because you know as well as I do we NEVER have a poor defense. NEVER, it just simply doesn't happen. Maybe we won't be as stout as this year but we'll have places on our defense that'll be better than this years as well.

Dline- If Heyward/Gibson both return then forget it this unit will be better than this years unit. Personally I don't feel EITHER is ready for the NFL, and I'd argue Heyward is more ready than Gibson. Gibson is a talent no doubt but i'm sure his numbers will hurt him even though he's such a beast. NFL people love their numbers and Gibson with what 4 or 5 sacks is going to get looked over a bit I feel. Regaurdless having Simon, Larimore,Goebel, is going to be a pretty good group. Giving Simon more time to hit the gym which he LOVES to do is only going to help. Larimore was considered out best DT till his injury as well. At End we still have Wells, Fellows, Williams, and Thomas in the rush end molds. Again you add Gibson/Heyward in here and this group is just as good as our Oline.

LB- We'll be better here. I love Spitler's game though. Don't forget Tyler Moellers impact as well. Having a LB group of Homan/Moeller/Rolle won't be the biggest but man can they run and cover and hit. Sabino/Sweat/Storm will factor in as well. Watch out for Jordan Whiting next year. IMO, he looked like a very good athlete when he showed up for fall camp. Big guy, and I see big things for him..

DB- Chekwa/Torrence will be back and should be even more effective. Saftey is a concern but with Hines already being a starter this yera really only leaves the spot by coleman open (which is a big spot). Your guess is as good as mine as who steps up and nabs that spot.

Next year is the year. We lose too much in 2010 on defense, and too much in key positions on offense to win it all. Next year though, we lose something like 3-4 total starters assuming Gibson/Heyward come back.

 

[BigJim]

For me it's next year in 2010.....

The original poster meant 2010 regular season vs. 2011 regular season, not 2010 bowl game vs. 2011 bowl game. This year isn't part of the discussion.

 

[BUXPWR]

BUXPWR

I agree on next year - 2010. We have all the heavy hitters at home. Pryor, IMO, will not be leaving early. From what I have seen, he will need all four years of training, experience and highlight reel footage to best position himself for the NFL draft. Seeing how teams approach Tebow in April 2010 might be a little telling.
I am very worried about The U next September. Jacory seems to be hitting as a Soph and I think will be even better next year - as a Junior and should be hitting his stride. It will be a battle and an OOC game we have to win.
Not to mention the coming Rose Bowl - no matter our opponent. We have to win convincingly against, I hope, The Ducks. If we beat the Beavers we will only hear about how the Pac-10 had a down year.