Are the Buckeyes more geared for a Ntl. Championship in 2010 or 2011

[NateG]

Since the D plays alot of Nickel, I know Moeller can play the Star but is there anyway he could fill a safety spot and leave the LB spots to Sabino/Sweat and Klien? If that is a possibility that would make the D (with Gib/Hey/Chek returning) The best D in the country, bar none. With how Torrence took the other CB position, you would have 2 solid to great CBs Hines at safety and Ohrian, Nate Oliver, Aaron Gant(possible medical redshirt), or like I said Tyler at Safety with Homan, Rolle and the other backer stated above. Then everyone knows the depth we have on the D line. Light's out.

 

[Woody1968]

I agree on next year - 2010. We have all the heavy hitters at home. Pryor, IMO, will not be leaving early. From what I have seen, he will need all four years of training, experience and highlight reel footage to best position himself for the NFL draft. Seeing how teams approach Tebow in April 2010 might be a little telling.
I am very worried about The U next September. Jacory seems to be hitting as a Soph and I think will be even better next year - as a Junior and should be hitting his stride. It will be a battle and an OOC game we have to win.
Not to mention the coming Rose Bowl - no matter our opponent. We have to win convincingly against, I hope, The Ducks. If we beat the Beavers we will only hear about how the Pac-10 had a down year.

The biggest unknown on the schedule next year is Miami. I do not follow their program enough to know what they lose from this year. Harris has been really, really good at times, and horrible at others. What is up with Miami and skinny QBs?

Whoever we play in the Rose Bowl will be hyped. Sports Journalists have already stuck their necks out to claim the Pac-10 is the best or second best conference in the country. If Oregon State beats Oregon, they will have to continue to sleep in the bed that they made for themselves.

 

[AKAK]

Whether you want to argue about what kinds of guys/talent etc that we think we'll have in either year...

It needs to be 2010.

Regardless of Heyward and Gibson's respective decisions... we should have a very, very good defense. Not saying better, but, very very good. And if the big questions are in the front 7, we know more about their backups than we probably have in a while.

Also, another point... and I think this says as much about Pryor and the O-line as it does about Herron and Saine, but, for the first time in a while, probably since going into '06, our offense has an identity.

It may be a boring power run identity (to some of you) but my biggest complaint about "Jim Tressel Offenses" has never been play calling or philosophy as much as it is that it gets frustrating to feel like there's not one aspect of the offense we can kind of depend upon when things get tough. I don't mean so much that you can't score on 1st and goal inside the 5... but, my frustration is that there should be some specific thing you want to do in those kinds of situations, or any other time you struggle. Seems like now, we're a power run team-- and that's fine with me. Be something. I think that's as important as anything. You roll up 200+ yards on the ground-- with ease, for the most part, you then can get confidence, swagger, whatever those other intangibles are.

And, really, in the question of bringing Pryor along, we have a situation where the best thing for him is probably to know that he doesn't have to do it all, that there is a base of productivity to have him be able to build and expand his game on. Not saying he can't handle the pressure of loading the team on his back, but, it's got to be better not to have him have to.

In addition to all of that, I think Posey is VERY close to being a legit #1 homerun hitter/ go to guy. And just generally, I think we'll have the best recievers we've had since Ginn and Gonzo, etc. I think the explosiveness will come, both out of this group and when Pryor runs the ball himself, so, not too worried about that.

Long story short... we know we can run the ball, we know we can stop the run. This is a very good thing to start with.

We need some special teams work, actually... both in coverage and actual punting and kicking... but... I'm sure this will not be overlooked by Coach Tressel.

 

[exhawg]

I go into pretty much every year hoping for a MNC. I think the next two seasons rely mostly on Pryor's development as a QB. If he becomes the QB that we all hope he can become the sky is the limit for as long as he is at OSU.

 

[JXC]

2009 starter.......2010 starter...........upgrade/downgrade
DE: Gibson..........Williams..............slight downgrade
DE: Heyward.........Heyward...............slight upgrade
DT: Denlinger.......Larimore..............upgrade
DT: Worthington.....Simon.................upgrade
LB: Homan...........Homan.................slight upgrade
LB: Rolle...........Rolle.................slight upgrade
LB: Spitler.........Sabino/Sweat..........upgrade
_S: Coleman.........??????................major downgrade
_S: Hines...........Hines.................slight upgrade
CB: Torrence........Torrence..............slight upgrade
CB: Chekwa..........Chekwa................slight upgrade

I'm assuming that Heyward and Chekwa are staying and Gibson is leaving. I factored in a slight upgrade for each returning player. Larimore proved this year that he's a better payer than Denlinger, and Simon is probably the most talented DL on the team (yes, that's right - more talented than Gibson or Heyward). Nate Williams is a similar player to Gibson who has received valuable experience during his first two years, and should be able to take a step up as a starter next season. The only major loss is Coleman at safety, where the Buckeyes have no viable replacement at this point.

If Heyward were to leave, then that would be a major loss as well. Rob Rose (possible medical redshirt) and Melvin Fellows (never played a down of college football) would be his likely replacement, and both would be definite major downgrades.

I'm not really concerned about Chekwa leaving early, as Torrence is the real lock-down guy on this team, and there are plenty of young players with talent who could fill the vacant CB spot. I'd say that Chekwa's replacement would definitely be a downgrade, but perhaps not as great as most people would assume.

It might be surprisingly difficult to replace Anderson Russell as the nickel back.

The offense essentially returns intact next year, and the schedule is favorable, so it looks like 2010 is the ideal time to make the championship run.

Agree to disagree. I think the losses of Denlinger and Worthington are bigger than most realize. I think they are the two most underrated guys on this team. If Dex has a healthy great season next year, that would be big. And Simon is prime for a good year next year. But I don't see it as an automatic upgrade. I think it might be a downgrade. The play of Denlinger and Worthington is one of the biggest reasons this team is in the Rose Bowl. The experience alone is enough to be worried about losing, even without the talent losses too. I loved the depth we had on the DL this year, and I'm worried the depth next year, especially at DT, will be lacking. If both Heyward and Gibson stay, then I think it could make up for it. If no juniors leave this defense, then I think we'll have a good shot as being as successful on defense as this year.

Torrance, Homan, and Rolle are the 3 for sure returning guys that excite me the most.

 

[WaitingforKickoff]

Torrance, Homan, and Rolle are the 3 for sure returning guys that excite me the most.

People overlook the fact that Moeller was held in the same regard as Homan/Rolle/Hines before the idiot Florida fan slugged him. The dude is a fantastic blitzer and has the speed to cover. If he's healthy I have him pegged at star, at the very least, with a possible starting possible at either safety or linebacker.

 

[CalvinistBuck]

2009 starter.......2010 starter...........upgrade/downgrade
DE: Gibson..........Williams..............slight downgrade
DE: Heyward.........Heyward...............slight upgrade
DT: Denlinger.......Larimore..............upgrade
DT: Worthington.....Simon.................upgrade
LB: Homan...........Homan.................slight upgrade
LB: Rolle...........Rolle.................slight upgrade
LB: Spitler.........Sabino/Sweat..........upgrade
_S: Coleman.........??????................major downgrade
_S: Hines...........Hines.................slight upgrade
CB: Torrence........Torrence..............slight upgrade
CB: Chekwa..........Chekwa................slight upgrade

I'm assuming that Heyward and Chekwa are staying and Gibson is leaving. I factored in a slight upgrade for each returning player. Larimore proved this year that he's a better payer than Denlinger, and Simon is probably the most talented DL on the team (yes, that's right - more talented than Gibson or Heyward). Nate Williams is a similar player to Gibson who has received valuable experience during his first two years, and should be able to take a step up as a starter next season. The only major loss is Coleman at safety, where the Buckeyes have no viable replacement at this point.

If Heyward were to leave, then that would be a major loss as well. Rob Rose (possible medical redshirt) and Melvin Fellows (never played a down of college football) would be his likely replacement, and both would be definite major downgrades.

I'm not really concerned about Chekwa leaving early, as Torrence is the real lock-down guy on this team, and there are plenty of young players with talent who could fill the vacant CB spot. I'd say that Chekwa's replacement would definitely be a downgrade, but perhaps not as great as most people would assume.

It might be surprisingly difficult to replace Anderson Russell as the nickel back.

The offense essentially returns intact next year, and the schedule is favorable, so it looks like 2010 is the ideal time to make the championship run.

A solid reply to JXC's concern about the relative quality of the 2010 defense. However, the one area you neglected to mention is depth. Most of the players in the two-deep on the 2009 DL had significant experience. Losing Worthington, Denlinger, Wilson, and (probably) Rose, means losing considerable depth. Rotating with quality players is a valuable luxury, not to mention preparedness in dealing with the likelihood of injuries.

Given the Heyward-stays (Gibson leaves) scenario, I'm not ready to predict that the 2010 DL will be better. Even if we project slight improvement at LB and CB, losing a playmaker like Coleman at safety makes the whole defensive backfield suffer greatly. And, I think Anderson Russell will be missed, given the lack of depth.

While the 2010 defense has the potential to better than the 2009 version, the lack of quality depth for next season makes such speculation risky.

 

[CalvinistBuck]

Agree to disagree. I think the losses of Denlinger and Worthington are bigger than most realize. I think they are the two most underrated guys on this team. If Dex has a healthy great season next year, that would be big. And Simon is prime for a good year next year. But I don't see it as an automatic upgrade. I think it might be a downgrade. The play of Denlinger and Worthington is one of the biggest reasons this team is in the Rose Bowl. The experience alone is enough to be worried about losing, even without the talent losses too. I loved the depth we had on the DL this year, and I'm worried the depth next year, especially at DT, will be lacking. If both Heyward and Gibson stay, then I think it could make up for it. If no juniors leave this defense, then I think we'll have a good shot as being as successful on defense as this year.

Torrance, Homan, and Rolle are the 3 for sure returning guys that excite me the most.

To some extent we're on the same page. I made the previous post before I read your reply to LJB. We can only hope for the best with respect to depth.

 

[Jaxbuck]

A solid reply to JXC's concern about the relative quality of the 2010 defense. However, the one area you neglected to mention is depth. Most of the players in the two-deep on the 2009 DL had significant experience. Losing Worthington, Denlinger, Wilson, and (probably) Rose, means losing considerable depth. Rotating with quality players is a valuable luxury, not to mention preparedness in dealing with the likelihood of injuries.

Given the Heyward-stays (Gibson leaves) scenario, I'm not ready to predict that the 2010 DL will be better. Even if we project slight improvement at LB and CB, losing a playmaker like Coleman at safety makes the whole defensive backfield suffer greatly. And, I think Anderson Russell will be missed, given the lack of depth.

While the 2010 defense has the potential to better than the 2009 version, the lack of quality depth for next season makes such speculation risky.

IMO, this is just a matter of degrees that you always have with CFB turnover. At this point I look at units and ask will they be a weakness, a strength or can we chalk them up as just solid?

2010 DL with Cam back is a strength even if it isn't as good as 2009 right away. 2010 LB unit is a strength. 2010 secondary, specifically Saftey, is the big concern imo, especially with a team like Miami that can pass well, on the schedule early.

 

[CalvinistBuck]

IMO, this is just a matter of degrees that you always have with CFB turnover.

This is certainly true. The degree I'm speaking of here is lack of quality depth. I think the lack of quality depth on the DL and in the secondary will be missed next season--aside from the typical player turnover. All teams have backups, but they're not always experienced.

 

[stkoran]

If I had to make a pick right now, I think the choice is obviously the 2010 team, not because the 2011 team looks to be less good, but because there is simply not enough information to make an accurate prediction as to what will be happening in 2011, especially on the defensive side of the ball. At this point we don't even know who all the freshman will be on the 2010 team, let alone the 2011 team. If we end up picking up players like Henderson, Floyd and Joyner this year, maybe that starts to make the 2011 team look better. No one can know if we are going to pick up a season-altering freshman like MoC or Tedd Ginn, or even just a big time contributor like Jenkins.

In 2011 we lose both corners, a safety, 2 LBs, and 2 DL (this assumes Cam and Chekwa stay, Gibson leaves this year). Replacing that many starters would appear daunting.

But look at what the potential starting line-up could be (includes some recruiting guesses) with their total years in the program in 2011.

DE: N. Williams 4
DT: J. Simon 3
DT: S. Floyd 2
DE: M. Fellows 3
LB: E. Sabino 3
LB: A. Sweat 3
LB: J. Hicks 2
CB: C. Brown 3
S: O. Johnson 4
S: L. Joyner 2
CB: C. Barnett 3

On paper, that looks like a unit to salivate over. The problem is, we've only really seen two of these guys do anything on a college football field. Maybe they don't all pan out. Maybe other less heralded recruits step up. The key is that we just have no idea.

So the safe money is on 2010, no doubt. We basically know the product we are getting, and it is quite good. But we have to remember, after 2007 if we asked which defense would be better, 2008 or 2009, the easy money was on 2008, and that turned out to be incorrect (not that the 2008 unit was not good, quite to the contrary, I just think 2009 is better).

One other point to those who think DL depth will be poor next year:

If Cam returns there is really no argument that the starters will be excellent - Williams, Larimore, Simon, Heyward has to be a top 5 national unit. Everything I have read points to Adam Bellamy looking quite good - definitely good enough to be a productive back up. If Rose is back that is a huge plus. And then assuming we get Floyd and Turner is fully qualified, we would only need to got a solid back up type contribution from one of Floyd, Turner, Goebell, Newsome and Fellows to have a deep 7 man rotation.

 

[BigJim]

If I had to make a pick right now...

...

Great points throughout that post.

 

[JXC]

All i'm saying is there are a lot of 'ifs' on the DL for next year. This year we didn't have as many. IF Cam stays, IF Rose is back, IF we stay healthy next year, then there is little to worry about. Dex's injury this year was easily overcome with our depth. Lot's of depth with talent AND experience. The talent may be there next year, but the experience may not. And that could be a problem, especially with injuries.

I do love how deep and experienced our offense is going to be next year. And I have always felt that building good fundamentals into young players lets you reap benefits later in their career. If you just let a young kid run loose, then later in his career he will lose the poise that he may need in big games. This is especially so at quarterback. You need to build a good foundation before you can really start to excel. I think this offense has a great foundation. When things go tough next year, there will so much to fall back on, that I can't see much standing in the way of this team. Plus think of all the big game experience Pryor will have already had. 08 USC, Wisconsin (it was a big game when played), PSU, Texas 09 USC, PSU, Iowa, and the Rose Bowl. Some losses to learn from, some wins to learn from, and above all...he knows how to beat Michigan. Sophomore to Junior year is always the biggest for college QBs. I'm excited to see how 2010 starts off in the Rose Bowl.

 

[NateG]

IF Rose is back, IF we stay healthy next year

Point 1- Rose is a Senior
Point 2- This is every year

The big question of if is IF Gibson leaves. Alot of people are acting like this is a for sure thing. Didn't we think this with JL and Jenkins? He may find out that he is late 1st early 2nd round, have Cam and Chek talking to him, and look at the hardware he could get and be in the line up next year. That would mean solid DL, solid LB's, solid CB's and a solid Safety with the possibility of 2 with Moeller if he wants tons of playing time. Then add the O that we know is there and you are talking top 3 program with a nice 8 home game sched and 4 road games that are mid level at best. Nationally not as many teams to fight to get to the game, and could still run the table. 2010 is the year, don't fool yourselves.

 

[gracelhink]

2009 starter.......2010 starter...........upgrade/downgrade
DE: Gibson..........Williams..............slight downgrade
DE: Heyward.........Heyward...............slight upgrade
DT: Denlinger.......Larimore..............upgrade
DT: Worthington.....Simon.................upgrade
LB: Homan...........Homan.................slight upgrade
LB: Rolle...........Rolle.................slight upgrade
LB: Spitler.........Sabino/Sweat..........upgrade
_S: Coleman.........??????................major downgrade
_S: Hines...........Hines.................slight upgrade
CB: Torrence........Torrence..............slight upgrade
CB: Chekwa..........Chekwa................slight upgrade

I'm assuming that Heyward and Chekwa are staying and Gibson is leaving. I factored in a slight upgrade for each returning player. Larimore proved this year that he's a better payer than Denlinger, and Simon is probably the most talented DL on the team (yes, that's right - more talented than Gibson or Heyward). Nate Williams is a similar player to Gibson who has received valuable experience during his first two years, and should be able to take a step up as a starter next season. The only major loss is Coleman at safety, where the Buckeyes have no viable replacement at this point.

If Heyward were to leave, then that would be a major loss as well. Rob Rose (possible medical redshirt) and Melvin Fellows (never played a down of college football) would be his likely replacement, and both would be definite major downgrades.

I'm not really concerned about Chekwa leaving early, as Torrence is the real lock-down guy on this team, and there are plenty of young players with talent who could fill the vacant CB spot. I'd say that Chekwa's replacement would definitely be a downgrade, but perhaps not as great as most people would assume.

It might be surprisingly difficult to replace Anderson Russell as the nickel back.

The offense essentially returns intact next year, and the schedule is favorable, so it looks like 2010 is the ideal time to make the championship run.

Wanted to bump this analysis by LJB for its solid assessment of what is the potential for the D next year.
Agree about the DL, Simon and Larimore will be an upgrade and let's not forget Goebel the Gladiator in the mix.
Would be shocked if Rose gets the med RS. As noted earlier Cam is in love and the talent level at DE at plug and play level if Thad leaves early.
LB will be the strength of this defense and we can anticipate Rolle, Homan, Bino, Klein and Bell bringing terror.
DB is the major rebuild but especially if Chekwa, Hines, and Torrence grade out well at the combine.