Reds trade makes sense if you really seek playoffs
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
BOB HUNTER
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The uproar in the immediate aftermath of the Reds trade with Washington was predictable. In a sports world consumed with offense, trading Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez for a couple of relief pitchers and an old shortstop must have seemed absolutely loony to a lot of people, particularly after hearing for so long that Kearns was going to be a star.
Some of this stems from our Rotisserie-league mentality. A good fantasy league GM would never give up a couple of potential 30-home run guys for some middle relief help (Bill Bray and Gary Majewski) and a veteran shortstop (Royce Clayton) whose defense is more reliable than Lopez’s was.
But wait a minute, this is real baseball, isn’t it? Little things like a shortstop’s range and the number of routine grounders an infielder boots have a bearing on winning and losing games. A reliever who regularly pitches a scoreless inning or two in a close game can affect a team’s record just as much as a guy who occasionally wins a game with a home run.
Relief pitching isn’t sexy. The bullpen doesn’t receive so much as a passing glance when it’s doing its job. But when it is consumed by failure, as the Reds bullpen was, it can be every bit as fatal as a lineup of .200 hitters.
It pays to remember the best trades aren’t always the most popular ones on the day they are made. One of the most unpopular moves in Reds history — the trade of Lee May, Tommy Helms and Jimmy Stewart to Houston in November 1971 — turned out to be one that revved up the Big Red Machine for most of the next five seasons.
It was heavily criticized in Cincinnati because May and Helms were popular with fans and May was a proven slugger, and because it didn’t appear the Reds were getting much offense in return. That turned out to be wrong; Joe Morgan won two National League MVPs for his offense and defense. But the trade was also huge because it gave the Reds a solid starting pitcher (Jack Billingham) and a capable center fielder (Cesar Geronimo) that helped complete one of the great teams in baseball history.
Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky might have paid too high a price for relief help. It seems as if he could have gotten two capable relievers for something less than two everyday players, and if he had waited, maybe he could have.
But given the way the Reds were losing games — they finished the first half with a 5.21 relief ERA that was highest in the majors — the window of opportunity was closing quickly.
There are three good teams in the National League. Four make the playoffs. That simple equation opened the door for a merely decent Reds team, which has been leading this pack of wild-card pretenders for most of the season and has a narrow 2 1 /2-game edge entering a three-game series with the National League East-leading New York Mets.
Some might not see this as an important opportunity, but the facts suggest otherwise: Wildcard teams have played in the past three World Series and won two. It’s the nature of a sport that requires 162 games to separate the best from the worst: If you get into the playoffs, even teams that might be only the best of a mediocre lot of wildcard contenders have a chance to win it all.
But Lopez and Kearns? A lot of general managers take the cautious approach. Former Reds general manager Bill Bergesch wouldn’t consider trading any of the team’s "crown jewels" until some proved to be cubic zirconia. The thought of trading a guy who might become a star somewhere else was an anathema to him, even if it meant sacrificing a chance to win a title.
Crazy as that notion seemed 15 years ago, it seems even crazier now. The Reds haven’t been to the postseason since 1995. They probably weren’t good enough to make it this year with Lopez and Kearns and a bad bullpen.
A good trade? Hard to say. But too steep a price? No.
When you’re a small-market GM in a big-market game, you can’t afford to let a good chance go.
Bob Hunter is a sports colum nist for The Dispatch
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