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#5 Ohio State (24-8) vs #12 South Dakota State (28-6) - Thursday, March 15 @ 4:00 ET (TNT)

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buckeyesin07 said:
Ugh. Not good. I was actually surprised, when I looked up the stat, that we only give up 34.6%--I would've guessed way closer to 40%.
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even though osu is average nationally in three-point percentage defense, we're talking about marginal percentage differences resulting in big differences in ranking. at 34.6%, we're 147th in three-point defense. if, instead, we were 33% in three point defense, that would place us 60th, which is quite solid. nothing wrong with the 83rd percentile. and the difference between 34.6% and 33% comes out to just a single point (0.33 x 20 x 3 vs. 0.346 x 20 x 3) per an average game of 20 three-point attempts.

moreover, i think we tend to suffer with our three-point defense based on the kind of offense we're facing. if it's a team whose threes rely quite a bit on ball movement, then i think we're okay. if it's a team whose threes rely on drive-and-kicks, then i don't think it's so good for us. we're 275th in points per possession given up off of an opponent's drive. this is why an opponent with athletic and strong 2s and 3s is our kryptonite. it's no surprise that gonzaga dismantled us. they're 20th in points per possession off of ball penetration.

That percentage would be much higher if we didn't play a bunch of poor 3-point shooting teams this year.
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at least compared to the power conferences, i'm not sure where osu stands in opponents' accuracy from outside the arc. we know how they shot against us, but i'm not sure how they shot throughout the season.

one more point... a team's three-point defense can be a bit like a team's free throw shooting defense. not much you can do about your opponent's free throw percentage, and there's often little you can about your opponent's three-point percentage. sometimes your opponent misses all their wide open threes, and sometimes your opponent makes all their wide open threes. no matter how good your defense is, you're going to give up some wide open three opportunities. in my opinion, the best free throw and three-point defense comes down to limiting attempts of either.
 
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Watching Daum move, there's no way he can stay with KBD on defense. The trick is to catch them on the switches and put a crapload of pressure on him. If he were to get in foul trouble, the Bucks will roll them. I also don't think they will have an answer for Tate either if he can stay on the floor. SDSU can shoot and like people said on here they can win it behind the arc. Pretty obvious what it will take for our Bucks to survive and advance.
 
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I'm taking @OSU_Buckguy's stat about the Jackrabbits' poor 2-pt defense to not be so much about their post D (i.e. get Wesson going) and more about bad perimeter D with no interior presence at the rim. Again, that's just a guess, but would be unfortunate because Ohio State lacks guards that can break a guy down and finish inside. I actually think that guy is going to be Tate.

Expecting him to get in the lane with the left hand and score a lot. My .02 prediction.

Go Bucks
 
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OHSportsFan said:
I'm taking @OSU_Buckguy's stat about the Jackrabbits' poor 2-pt defense to not be so much about their post D (i.e. get Wesson going) and more about bad perimeter D with no interior presence at the rim. Again, that's just a guess, but would be unfortunate because Ohio State lacks guards that can break a guy down and finish inside. I actually think that guy is going to be Tate.

Expecting him to get in the lane with the left hand and score a lot. My .02 prediction.

Go Bucks
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there are 351 division 1 teams. sdsu ranks 350th in points per possession (ppp) allowed off of dribble penetration, 349th in ppp allowed off of isolation sets, and 249th in ppp allowed off of post-ups. the only thing on defense they do better than mediocre or downright horrible is defend spot-up shooters (53rd).

i absolutely agree that tate will be key. as their coach recently said, they just don't see guys like tate in the summit league. i mean, tate hits them in both of their weak spots: dribble-drive and post-up. he's a nightmare opponent. kbd, too. i wouldn't be surprised if jallow gives us 8 or more points.

my guess is we go small a lot. i don't see kaleb guarding daum much, but sdsu has more than one guy who can pull kaleb from the basket. on the offensive end, no kaleb means more less congestion for kbd and tate to play inside-out. i just hope that jackson and williams hit their jumpers. if sdsu is hitting from deep, then we're going to need more than a 2-player offense. if jackson and/or kam are hitting, then it's night-night.
 
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OSU_Buckguy said:
there are 351 division 1 teams. sdsu ranks 350th in points per possession (ppp) allowed off of dribble penetration, 349th in ppp allowed off of isolation sets, and 249th in ppp allowed off of post-ups. the only thing on defense they do better than mediocre or downright horrible is defend spot-up shooters (53rd).

i absolutely agree that tate will be key. as their coach recently said, they just don't see guys like tate in the summit league. i mean, tate hits them in both of their weak spots: dribble-drive and post-up. he's a nightmare opponent. kbd, too. i wouldn't be surprised if jallow gives us 8 or more points.

my guess is we go small a lot. i don't see kaleb guarding daum much, but sdsu has more than one guy who can pull kaleb from the basket. on the offensive end, no kaleb means more less congestion for kbd and tate to play inside-out. i just hope that jackson and williams hit their jumpers. if sdsu is hitting from deep, then we're going to need more than a 2-player offense. if jackson and/or kam are hitting, then it's night-night.
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Feel even better about the offense then, provided Tate stays out of foul trouble and turnovers. Going to keep my eye on 5dimes for any player props with his points (for entertainment purposes)

Overall still confident in the Bucks handling business, but there is enough there to give me some pause- 1 game playoff, never know. 3 more hours
 
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This is the kind of game I'm looking for, almost expecting, an upset when it's someone else's school. Probably doesn't help that it feels like a month since the Bucks won a game.

Let's get off to a good start and make them play from behind. Don't give them confidence early. Come on, Bucks!
 
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