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2026 tOSU Offense Discussion

I think it was @jwinslow that said it but I agree with whoever it was; the way either of these two can be "better" than Sayin isn't going to be in completion %, it can be in pocket presence/awareness.

Replacing the rattled version of Sayin really isn't that tall of a task and that is the real inflection point imo.

The offense was capped at Rattled Sayin.

Putting a rough number on it: a ~60% completion 50/50 TD/INT guy with zero run threat against the better quality defenses we would face in a playoff.
I’m more worried about turnovers. Over throws fumbles
 
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Ryan Day’s Ohio State Quarterback Decision Comes Down to Toughness​

Ohio State has a quarterback decision to make before Saturday’s game at USC. Ryan Day also has a pretty good idea of what the answer needs to look like, even if he doesn’t know yet which player will provide it.

Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair are both preparing for the possibility of leading the Buckeyes against the Trojans. Fahey was ahead of St. Clair entering the Indiana game, but with Julian Sayin’s status changing the equation, Ohio State has to be ready for more than one scenario.

Day isn’t ready to name a starter. He wants a few more days of practice, a better feel for what each quarterback can do, and a plan that gives the Buckeyes the best chance to win.

But the evaluation isn’t just about who throws the best ball or looks most comfortable running the offense. Day was asked what he needs to see from either quarterback to know he’s ready.

His answer was simple.

“If you’re saying like one thing, they gotta be tough. You gotta be tough,” Day said. “If our guys play tough, and what I mean by that is like physically, mentally, and emotionally tough, that’s critical here.”

That’s the challenge for two young quarterbacks preparing for a road game against a talented USC team. The job is to run the offense, make the routine plays and keep a difficult situation from becoming a worse one. It is not to turn every snap into a rescue mission.

“We know we got to make routine plays routinely,” Day said. “We gotta stay on schedule. We can’t make bad situations worse.”

That last part matters. Ohio State doesn’t need its quarterback to solve everything by himself. It needs him to play within the offense, trust the preparation and avoid letting the moment dictate his decisions.

And the moment can arrive quickly.

Fahey got that reminder against Indiana, when he found himself in the game in the fourth quarter. Day said the experience was a lesson in how little warning a backup can get before his number is called. The same is true for St. Clair, who is now competing with Fahey for the backup spot once again after losing the backup job to Fahey at the beginning of the season.

“When you’re a backup, and certainly when you’re in the third string, you don’t ever feel like you’re going to get in the game, and then before you know it, you’re in it in the fourth quarter,” Day said. “So that’s a lesson learned for all of us.”

It is a lesson Ohio State can’t afford to learn twice. The staff has to prepare both quarterbacks, and both quarterbacks have to prepare as if the offense could be theirs at any moment.

“Every rep will be very, very important,” Day said.
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Cardale Jones Confident Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair Will Succeed As Buckeyes’ New Quarterback: “They’re At Ohio State For A Reason”​

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As Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair prepares to take over as Ohio State’s new starting quarterback, there’s no better example of what they could accomplish than Cardale Jones.

Twelve years ago, Jones took over as Ohio State’s starting quarterback after J.T. Barrett went down with a season-ending ankle injury in the Buckeyes’ regular-season finale against Michigan. He proceeded to lead Ohio State to a 59-0 win over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game, an iconic win over Alabama in the College Football Playoff semifinals and a triumph over Oregon in the first-ever CFP national championship game.

Now, either Fahey or St. Clair will become Ohio State’s starting QB under similar circumstances after Julian Sayin suffered a potentially season-ending elbow injury in the Buckeyes’ last game against Indiana.

Jones knows that one of their lives is about to change in a big way. But he also says they don’t need to be anything but themselves to succeed in their new role.

“Just go out there and be yourself,” Jones told Eleven Warriors when asked what advice he would give Fahey and St. Clair. “I mean, you're here at Ohio State for a reason. It's easy to go out there to feel like you should prove somebody wrong. I think all these guys are here for a reason and understand that they don't have to do it by themselves. You don't have to go out there and be Julian Sayin, but quick, easy decisions are often going to get the job done.”

When Jones thinks back on his own transition from backup quarterback to starter, he credits his Ohio State teammates and coaches with setting him up for success. And he’s confident Ryan Day and the current Buckeyes will do the same for their new quarterback.

“I think it just took the guys around me upping their play. I think the talent or the confidence was never an issue or concern for me personally. I mean, my coaches may think differently,” Jones said with a laugh. “But I think just coming into a situation where I felt as comfortable as possible with the talent that I had around me and knowing, truly feeling like I didn't have to go out there and do anything that was out of my abilities.

“One thing I give a lot of credit to with that coaching staff, with guys like Urban Meyer and Tom Herman, is that they didn’t put me in and say, ‘You got to go out there and be J.T. Barrett.’ Even from the different style of plays that we would call, was fitted more for the things I did well. I think that's what I expect from Ryan Day and this coaching staff to do some of those things with Luke or Tavien.”
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Ohio State doesn’t need its next QB to be a star; it needs him to be Craig Krenzel​

Ohio State doesn’t need Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair to be Julian Sayin. With a healthier, improving defense and plenty of offensive firepower, the Buckeyes just need a little Craig Krenzel magic to keep their title hopes alive.

I don’t know about you, but I have spent a considerable amount of time over the past two weeks trying to convince myself that Ohio State’s national championship aspirations didn’t disappear the moment Julian Sayin suffered an injury to his throwing arm against Indiana. Although, having broken down enough film Zapruder-style, I’m increasingly convinced that he was initially injured against Maryland.

And while I certainly recognize that losing a Heisman-finalist quarterback is never a good thing — especially in the middle of a season as absurdly wide open as this one — I have talked myself into optimism heading into Saturday’s game at the Coliseum. The more I think about it, the more I am convinced that the Buckeyes might not need their next signal-caller to be nearly as spectacular as the guy he’s replacing; in fact, I don’t think he needs to be spectacular at all. I think he needs to be Craig Krenzel.

While I don’t believe that either Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair is a molecular genetics major, and college football has changed an incredible amount in the 24 years since the Krenzel-led Buckeyes won a national title in my (first) senior year at Ohio State, I have to imagine that two guys who were recruited by Ryan Day — regardless of how inexperienced — can operate the offense enough to keep the team’s collective heads above water.
As magical as that season was — and I was at every home game, the Holy Buckeye Game at Purdue, and the BCS Championship Game in Tempe — Krenzel was not exactly setting the world on fire, but he wasn’t being asked to either.

During that undefeated campaign, Krenzel completed 148 of 249 passes (59.4%) for 2,110 yards (150.7 yards per game), 12 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Those aren’t numbers that would typically inspire confidence from Ohio State fans accustomed to modern quarterback production, but what made Krenzel so valuable was that he understood precisely what his team needed him to be.

He threw an interception on just 2.8% of his attempts, averaged an impressive 8.5 yards per pass, and found ways to make plays with his legs when necessary; nowhere was that more apparent than against Miami in the national championship game, when he rushed for 81 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries, leading both teams in rushing.
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Which brings me back to Krenzel, Fahey, and St. Clair.

I’m not suggesting that whichever youngster gets the start should be relegated to handing the ball off 40 times and hoping the defense does the rest. For one thing, that would be an unconscionable waste of Jeremiah Smith, who remains the most dangerous player in college football.
Rather, I want the next Ohio State quarterback to embrace the fundamental principles that made Krenzel so successful: Protect the football, make intelligent decisions, take the opportunities the defense gives you, and trust the extraordinary talent surrounding you.

Get the ball to Smith. Find Devin McCuin and Chris Henry Jr. when defenses inevitably devote additional attention to No. 4. Let Bo Jackson, Isaiah West, and maybe even Legend Bey provide some balance, and understand that an incompletion or punt is infinitely preferable to a reckless interception. And when the situation demands something more, don’t be afraid to make a play.
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Cardale Jones Confident Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair Will Succeed As Buckeyes’ New Quarterback: “They’re At Ohio State For A Reason”​

164897_h.JPG


As Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair prepares to take over as Ohio State’s new starting quarterback, there’s no better example of what they could accomplish than Cardale Jones.

Twelve years ago, Jones took over as Ohio State’s starting quarterback after J.T. Barrett went down with a season-ending ankle injury in the Buckeyes’ regular-season finale against Michigan. He proceeded to lead Ohio State to a 59-0 win over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game, an iconic win over Alabama in the College Football Playoff semifinals and a triumph over Oregon in the first-ever CFP national championship game.

Now, either Fahey or St. Clair will become Ohio State’s starting QB under similar circumstances after Julian Sayin suffered a potentially season-ending elbow injury in the Buckeyes’ last game against Indiana.

Jones knows that one of their lives is about to change in a big way. But he also says they don’t need to be anything but themselves to succeed in their new role.

“Just go out there and be yourself,” Jones told Eleven Warriors when asked what advice he would give Fahey and St. Clair. “I mean, you're here at Ohio State for a reason. It's easy to go out there to feel like you should prove somebody wrong. I think all these guys are here for a reason and understand that they don't have to do it by themselves. You don't have to go out there and be Julian Sayin, but quick, easy decisions are often going to get the job done.”

When Jones thinks back on his own transition from backup quarterback to starter, he credits his Ohio State teammates and coaches with setting him up for success. And he’s confident Ryan Day and the current Buckeyes will do the same for their new quarterback.

“I think it just took the guys around me upping their play. I think the talent or the confidence was never an issue or concern for me personally. I mean, my coaches may think differently,” Jones said with a laugh. “But I think just coming into a situation where I felt as comfortable as possible with the talent that I had around me and knowing, truly feeling like I didn't have to go out there and do anything that was out of my abilities.

“One thing I give a lot of credit to with that coaching staff, with guys like Urban Meyer and Tom Herman, is that they didn’t put me in and say, ‘You got to go out there and be J.T. Barrett.’ Even from the different style of plays that we would call, was fitted more for the things I did well. I think that's what I expect from Ryan Day and this coaching staff to do some of those things with Luke or Tavien.”
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12 gage knows they didn't come to play school!
 
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Before Woody passed he acknowledged that the game had passed him by. He freely admitted that he could not coach the game of the 80s because, "they've turned it into a basketball game". What must he be thinking now as he looks down on us?

The Buckeyes lead the B1G in scoring offense, total offense, passing offense, yards per pass attempt, and passing efficiency. What would Woody say though if he were to see that his Buckeyes rank eleventh in the Big Ten in Yards per Rush.

Eleventh

In the Big Ten

And now the Buckeyes need to lean on that rushing attack more than ever.

Save us Woody, you're our only hope

So now that you're had your daily dose of black-pill, let me give you a few reasons to believe that this rushing attack is better than many Ohio State fans believe. While the USC rush defense is also better than a lot of people believe, when you really dig into it, there are good reasons to be optimistic. Some are difficult to quantify, others can easily explained with a little DSA. Let's start with the former...

The Buckeyes told us that Julian would be at liberty to change plays at the line of scrimmage this year, but play after play they would stubbornly run into a stacked box. It's not that they ran too much... that's not the point I'm making here... it's that they ran the ball at times when the other team had the box loaded with defenders and the best player in the country covered man-to-man (or boy-to-man, as it often looks out there). I guess we'll never know if Julian really had that authority or not. For my part, I think it looked like we were running into stacked boxes just to practice doing it sometimes.

Another layer to this is that the Buckeyes appear to have played tougher run defenses than most other teams in the B1G. This is quantifiable though, and I can state categorically that it doesn't just appear that way and it's not most. The Buckeyes look much better when analyzed by DSA than they do when you use raw stats, and that only happens if you are facing tougher defenses than others.

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The above shows B1G teams ranked in order of their Differential Rushing Offense (yards per carry). DRO for yards per game is also shown, as is their rank in terms of raw yards per carry. The first thing to note here is that Iowa is not nearly what the media would have you believe. They are number one in YPC in the B1G, sure. But they are #5 in terms of Differential yards per carry. Maryland also has benefited from a soft schedule. While they rank 4 spots ahead of Ohio State in raw YPC; the Buckeyes are 4 spots ahead of them in terms of Differential YPC. Nebraska is the only team on the chart that moved up more than one spot when shifting from raw to differential numbers. They moved up two. The Buckeyes moved up 4 spots. So while the Buckeyes rank in the lower half of the league, their differential numbers are actually well above average (1).

This is not to say that the Buckeyes' numbers are up to the Buckeye standard. Dear Wood no, they are not. But when you consider that the Buckeyes opponents have, themselves, played tougher competition for the most part, than the teams on this list, then it would seem the Buckeyes are about to experience what most people will consider unexpected improvement in the rushing output, because the same cannot be said for the teams on the remainder of the schedule.

The last major factor to consider in the compilation of these numbers is that Ohio State has faced their toughest opponents with their most depleted roster. And the Buckeyes now have a full complement of offensive linemen ready to go for the post-bye portion of the season.

With the Buckeyes now at full strength on the OL and the backups having had reps... I truly believe that the numbers support a significant boost in rushing production for the remainder of the year and a finish in the top 3 in the conference.
 
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I put this in the USC game thread as kind of a post mortem but I think it needs to go here as a go forward point of discussion;

USC and IU before them (even with Sayin) I think have shown this strategy and this is what we can expect to see going forward until we show we can break it: make them work a long field and they will make a mistake. Simple as that. Only teams are going to let us run it until we prove we can win that way.

Consider the elements of that strategy- what kind of team is it great against?
-poor special teams play produces long fields via accumulated net yards? Check
-penalty prone? Check
-no top end/explosive run game talent to break explosives? Check
-red zone issues if they even do make it to the red zone? Check

vs
-almost certain death if we let them get the ball to their WR's

We now live in a day (no pun intended) where teams are willing to let OSU run the ball 40 times if they want because they don't think it can hurt them as much as taking away the explosive passing game hurts OSU.

I put the numbers from USC in the game thread but we have touched on it since Sayin got hurt. What does this team do well but get explosives from 4? Nothing. Every other facet of the game this year was in the 50-80's in national rank. Well here it is playing out.

Oregon and everyone else on the schedule have the ability to do this same thing until we can make them pay for it. Consistently.
 
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