2025 tOSU Offense Discussion

[OHSportsFan]

Georgia/Miami/A&M simply cannot replicate the same "structural discomfort" IU can create.

Good stats and it gives me some comfort.

That said, these 3 teams will at least have a much smaller individual talent gap compared to IU vs OSU (I assume).

IU is very well coached, experienced and aggressive on defense. They play similar “team defense” as OSU in a way.

But Georgia/Miami/TAMU could still have individual matchup edges where - if coached well - could be a problem in a one game playoff. Especially if they found what IU did and OSU doesn’t have an answer.

I’ll be honest I don’t know enough about their rosters to say. And a lot can still change in 3 weeks - hopefully with OSU coaches correcting course.

 

[OHSportsFan]

Btw, I’m totally with you @Jaxbuck where I view the Buckeyes’ likelihood to win through the lens of - can the OSU offense reach 21-24 points?

It’s pretty simple in a way. They need to execute on say, 4 out of 8 drives a game (3 TDs, 1 FG).

From there, will the opponent score more than 20? Possible for a few drives, broken plays, etc. but highly unlikely.

Day’s got a lot of grace with the defensive unit he’s been given this year. It’s up the offense to just do their minimum part. And I’m still confident they can.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Good stats and it gives me some comfort.

That said, these 3 teams will at least have a much smaller individual talent gap compared to IU vs OSU (I assume).

IU is very well coached, experienced and aggressive on defense. They play similar “team defense” as OSU in a way.

But Georgia/Miami/TAMU could still have individual matchup edges where - if coached well - could be a problem in a one game playoff. Especially if they found what IU did and OSU doesn’t have an answer.

I’ll be honest I don’t know enough about their rosters to say. And a lot can still change in 3 weeks - hopefully with OSU coaches correcting course.

The one thing stats can't perfectly call out is true talent. It just can't tell if you have an NFL 1st rounder at NG who's been dinged up and not playing at his best but after a months rest goes nuclear on you.

But that's why it's all probabilities and not guarantees (that kind of thing wouldn't wildly swing win % anyway)

No doubt the talent gap closes with these teams but on the other hand-they have had all year to put up numbers against the better competition so to a pretty healthy degree, you are what your data says you are (good data, scrubbed for garbage time, adjusted for opponents etc) at this point in the year.

Upsets happen from turnovers, short fields, fluky explosive plays and empty RZ trips from the favorite almost exclusively. If you know what to look for in style types you can see the red/yellow/green signals that one unit may be a real problem for the other.

The pre game "script" for IU/OSU wasn't wrong. IU got the two turnovers they needed in the second half to go with the pressure on Sayin and that was what they needed. Odds were against them but as they say, shit happens.

 

[scarletngray]

Part of the problem was that a number of plays took too long to develop. A shorter and faster passing game could have avoided some of the pressure Sayin was under. We also didn't trust the running game enough.

 

[Mike80]

Part of the problem was that a number of plays took too long to develop. A shorter and faster passing game could have avoided some of the pressure Sayin was under. We also didn't trust the running game enough.

Early on Indiana was jumping the early passing game. Watch Sayin double pump and pull the ball down. This also directly led to 3-4 of the sacks too. As it was, the misdirection element was missing. This was one thing that needed to be adjusted in the 1st half but wasn't until the 2nd half.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Early on Indiana was jumping the early passing game. Watch Sayin double pump and pull the ball down. This also directly led to 3-4 of the sacks too. As it was, the misdirection element was missing. This was one thing that needed to be adjusted in the 1st half but wasn't until the 2nd half.

100% this.

That's why I keep saying it was more on the coaches and IOL than Sayin. They were out game planned and then adjusted too slow.

 

[BB73]

One thing I would like them to consider in the red zone.

Have 3 or 4 WRs and let Sayin audible (verbal or hand signals, ones not used before). There were a handful of occasions where it looked like a slant to JJ was easy pickings in the red zone on Saturday.

Study the hell out of what the opposing defenses do against each formation, shift to that formation after the 15-second mark (so there’s no electronic communication available to the defenses green-dot LB), and then go quickly after getting into the new formation and sending the signal to the WRs. They shouldn’t need more than 2 seconds of pass pro on these plays, and don’t try to go past the second read if the first one looks too well-covered after the snap, just throw it through the end zone.

I think Julian would be able to handle this, especially with the extra prep time before games now.

 

[Merih]

Some perspective after last night using a mix of BCFtoys (what you have done on the field) CFB graphs data (how you have done it):

SUMMARY TABLE — DEFENSIVE QUALITY (OSU SIDE ONLY)​

Team	DFEI Rank	DSR Rank	DAY Rank	Overall Danger to OSU
Indiana	#3	#3	#5	Very High
Miami	#7	#10	#7	Moderate
Georgia	#13	#12	#17	Moderate–Low
Texas A&M	#14	#15	#17	Low
Ole Miss	#22	#15–20	#15	Low
Tulane	#30+	#25+	#35+	Negligible

IU is far and away the best defense we will face before a possible rematch with it.

None of:
-Georgia
-Miami
-A&M
-Ole Miss
are even close.

Indiana:
best early-down efficiency
top-tier drive denial
elite finishing drives allowed
elite available-yards suppression
elite FEI stability
best red-zone constraints
best suited for OSU’s style (this is the killer)

Georgia/Miami/A&M simply cannot replicate the same "structural discomfort" IU can create.

Great data. I bet Georgia is trending upwards though over last 4-5 games. Not a shock but I think Indiana (#1 seed) and Georgia (#3 seed) are the biggest threats to OSU.