TampaBuckeyes
Assistant Coach
It means at least 3/4 get in. But frankly I’d love to see the sec land 2+ schools in the 9-12 spots and end up playing at Oregon and ND.
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DZ83CK
Not Banned
It seems plausible that Bama loses in the SEC championship game and BYU loses in the Big 12 title game, Bama ends up with 3 losses and BYU 2.
In a hypothetical Playoff 12: OSU, IU, A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oregon, TTU, Oklahoma, ND, ACC champ, G5 champ - those seem probable. Then let's say you have one spot for 3-loss Bama, 3-loss Texas, 2-loss BYU, 2-loss Vandy, and 2-loss Utah ... who gets it? I would lean BYU.
In a hypothetical Playoff 12: OSU, IU, A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oregon, TTU, Oklahoma, ND, ACC champ, G5 champ - those seem probable. Then let's say you have one spot for 3-loss Bama, 3-loss Texas, 2-loss BYU, 2-loss Vandy, and 2-loss Utah ... who gets it? I would lean BYU.
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Zurp
I have misplaced my pants.
1. To answer your question, I would lean toward a 2-loss team over a 3-loss team. Not knowing the schedules and results, I think I'm aiming for BYU or Utah. Did they already play each other? Who won? That's the team I'd pick.
2. This would start a gross precedent: the loser of a conference championship game being likely in before the loss, and then out after the loss. How long until teams start declining the invite to the CCG? And then, if they can't back out, how long until we get the conspiracy theory that a conference pulled the referee strings to make the one team win so that they'd get into the playoff, since the other team was going to get in, anyway?
3. The whining coming out of Pawl and his callers will be beautiful, if Bama gets left out, again.
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RhodeIslandBuck
This guy's a real jerk
Just kind of looking at things from a broader perspective...
There are about 7 teams that are basically in, no doubt, barring some pretty unexpected results
1. Ohio State*
- In
2. Indiana
- In
3. Texas A&M*
- In, but a loss in the SEC title game could shake up the seeding
4. Georgia
- In, they're not losing to GaTech
5. Oregon
- In if they take care of business against USC, but a loss there puts them firmly in a precarious spot on the bubble
6. Mississippi
- In
7. Texas Tech*
- In, no one in the Big 12 is gonna take them down
*Projected conference champ
The ACC Champ is in, as is the best G5 team, as of now, I suppose id bet on GaTech/UVA but not with confidence, if Miami somehow sneaks into the acc title game and wins, that would open up another. I'll go with James Madison or North Texas at the moment for the G5 spot, but with the advent of the portal, I don't think the G5 deserves an auto bid, JMO.
This leaves, for all intents and purposes, 3 at large spots available, being fought over by:
Oklahoma
- they're kinda flaky, but two games against two mediocre teams are all that stands in their way
Alabama
- a loss to Auburn would, hilariously, end the season, and I wouldn't be so sure about a W there, given how their offense is playing
Notre Dame
- Interesting position they're in, if the chalk plays out, there's a good chance the last spot comes down to them and...
Miami
- I don't think this team is consistent enough to compete in a playoff scenario, but if they win out, and don't make the ACC title game, the last spot likely comes down to 10-2 Miami and 10-2 Notre Dame, would be extremely interesting to see how they choose, given the head to head. If they do make the ACC title, Notre Dame would likely be a shoe in
USC
- If they beat Oregon, good chance they're in, replacing Oregon, who would be thrown into the debate with, likely, Miami and Notre Dame, for the last spot, although the head to head against ND doesn't favor USC, so that's something to watch potentially
Michigan
- fuck them, it's not happening, even if the bullshit persists, I'm not sure who they would replace
Vanderbilt
- see above, unless there's chaos
I don't think BYU or Utah are legitimate options
There are about 7 teams that are basically in, no doubt, barring some pretty unexpected results
1. Ohio State*
- In
2. Indiana
- In
3. Texas A&M*
- In, but a loss in the SEC title game could shake up the seeding
4. Georgia
- In, they're not losing to GaTech
5. Oregon
- In if they take care of business against USC, but a loss there puts them firmly in a precarious spot on the bubble
6. Mississippi
- In
7. Texas Tech*
- In, no one in the Big 12 is gonna take them down
*Projected conference champ
The ACC Champ is in, as is the best G5 team, as of now, I suppose id bet on GaTech/UVA but not with confidence, if Miami somehow sneaks into the acc title game and wins, that would open up another. I'll go with James Madison or North Texas at the moment for the G5 spot, but with the advent of the portal, I don't think the G5 deserves an auto bid, JMO.
This leaves, for all intents and purposes, 3 at large spots available, being fought over by:
Oklahoma
- they're kinda flaky, but two games against two mediocre teams are all that stands in their way
Alabama
- a loss to Auburn would, hilariously, end the season, and I wouldn't be so sure about a W there, given how their offense is playing
Notre Dame
- Interesting position they're in, if the chalk plays out, there's a good chance the last spot comes down to them and...
Miami
- I don't think this team is consistent enough to compete in a playoff scenario, but if they win out, and don't make the ACC title game, the last spot likely comes down to 10-2 Miami and 10-2 Notre Dame, would be extremely interesting to see how they choose, given the head to head. If they do make the ACC title, Notre Dame would likely be a shoe in
USC
- If they beat Oregon, good chance they're in, replacing Oregon, who would be thrown into the debate with, likely, Miami and Notre Dame, for the last spot, although the head to head against ND doesn't favor USC, so that's something to watch potentially
Michigan
- fuck them, it's not happening, even if the bullshit persists, I'm not sure who they would replace
Vanderbilt
- see above, unless there's chaos
I don't think BYU or Utah are legitimate options
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CincyInterloper
Hall of Fame
I think projected ratings, er, I mean the eye test will determine which three teams fill the at-large spots. Maybe it should be called the eyeball test.
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Zurp
I have misplaced my pants.
Point of order: There is no P4 or G5, anymore. No conferences get auto bids. Only the top 5 conference winners. 98% of the time, all of what we all consider the "P4" will get those auto bids, with the "G5" getting one of them.
That being said, I think the G5 will always get at least one auto bid. Do you remember the old BCS? The old, old BCS? The original BCS rules stated that the G5 teams (they called them something different, back then) needed to be in the top 4 of the BCS standings in order to get an auto bid to one of the BCS bowl games. And there were only 4 BCS bowl games, counting the championship game. I believe that the G5 conferences threatened a lawsuit, so the P5 conferences opened a 5th bowl game (keeping the existing 4 BCS bowl games, and adding a championship game to the 4 bowl sites), and changed the criteria for G5 teams from top 4 to top 12.
I don't know who sues or gets sued, but the story we were fed back then (2005-ish) was that opening the gate to let more G5 teams in was started by threats of a lawsuit.
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RhodeIslandBuck
This guy's a real jerk
That's fair, not technically an auto bid, but functionally an auto bid. Seeing as their rosters get poached at the sight of any success, it's time to just make the old "G5" a separate competitive entity.
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ORD_Buckeye
Wrong glass, Sir.
Man, they're keeping Arch...errr, I mean tejas...as close as they can. Highest ranked 3-loss team. They can move them up based on a win against Arky and hopefully a couple of losses above them. Then, they jizz in aggy's jar--and it's the "greatest SEC win evah"---lo and behold they're sitting at 11 or 12 and then can slide into the top 10 with a couple of CCG losers dropping.
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Zurp
I have misplaced my pants.
Yeah - not "actually" an auto bid, but it actually is an auto bid.
And I'm not disagreeing with you that maybe they shouldn't get auto bids. But they will always get one.
Fix it by making an SEC vs Big Ten playoff. Don't call it a "national championship" playoff. Just Big Ten vs. SEC. The championship game is the College Awesome Bowl, or something. The winner is the Awesome Champions. Let the ACC and Big 12 and Group of whatever have their own "national championship" if they want.
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RhodeIslandBuck
This guy's a real jerk
Yea were on the same page here 100 percent. The one bid they get is, more than anything, just a patronizing move to cover their asses legally, until the inevitable split into a super league, they get a seat at the table, albeit a booster seat
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cincibuck
You kids stay off my lawn!
Not a stretch to see undefeated Ohio State and Indiana Ranked 1&2 why risk loosing the two top slots in the CFP by playing in a CCG?" Hell, it’s not a far stretch to see Notre Dame get to 2 if CCGs produce upsets and they didn’t have to risk anything in a CCG.
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