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2025 College Football Playoffs Discussion (12 Team Format)

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RhodeIslandBuck said:
Just kind of looking at things from a broader perspective...

There are about 7 teams that are basically in, no doubt, barring some pretty unexpected results

1. Ohio State*
- In
2. Indiana
- In
3. Texas A&M*
- In, but a loss in the SEC title game could shake up the seeding
4. Georgia
- In, they're not losing to GaTech
5. Oregon
- In if they take care of business against USC, but a loss there puts them firmly in a precarious spot on the bubble
6. Mississippi
- In
7. Texas Tech*
- In, no one in the Big 12 is gonna take them down
*Projected conference champ

The ACC Champ is in, as is the best G5 team, as of now, I suppose id bet on GaTech/UVA but not with confidence, if Miami somehow sneaks into the acc title game and wins, that would open up another. I'll go with James Madison or North Texas at the moment for the G5 spot, but with the advent of the portal, I don't think the G5 deserves an auto bid, JMO.

This leaves, for all intents and purposes, 3 at large spots available, being fought over by:

Oklahoma
- they're kinda flaky, but two games against two mediocre teams are all that stands in their way

Alabama
- a loss to Auburn would, hilariously, end the season, and I wouldn't be so sure about a W there, given how their offense is playing

Notre Dame
- Interesting position they're in, if the chalk plays out, there's a good chance the last spot comes down to them and...

Miami
- I don't think this team is consistent enough to compete in a playoff scenario, but if they win out, and don't make the ACC title game, the last spot likely comes down to 10-2 Miami and 10-2 Notre Dame, would be extremely interesting to see how they choose, given the head to head. If they do make the ACC title, Notre Dame would likely be a shoe in

USC
- If they beat Oregon, good chance they're in, replacing Oregon, who would be thrown into the debate with, likely, Miami and Notre Dame, for the last spot, although the head to head against ND doesn't favor USC, so that's something to watch potentially

Michigan
- fuck them, it's not happening, even if the bullshit persists, I'm not sure who they would replace

Vanderbilt
- see above, unless there's chaos

I don't think BYU or Utah are legitimate options
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If chalk persists then it’s okie ND Bama in the 8,9,10 spots. Ole miss likely drops to 8 if Oregon wins out. So let all of those fools play each other. Oregon and Georgia getting the American and ACC champ.

Important thing here in this weeks rankings is if they drop Bama below ND or BYU. Setting up who the first one out is if chalk wins. If BYU sits above Bama then Bama is in a real bad spot.

Big games would be BYU getting revenge in the CCG to knock the lower of Bama/ND.

Then Bama losing to Auburn. Not crazy, the gap isn’t as big as their records indicate as Auburn got cheated out of Oklahoma (with a pre injury Mateer) and Georgia. That puts ND and BYU in.

Other is if USC beats Oregon. If so where does Oregon sit among BYU, ND, Bama and even Miami. That’s the one that would really make the committees job difficult. Easier if Bama also loses but still how do you compare them to Okie, BYU, ND and Miami when only 3 make it in.
 
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buckeyemania11 said:
Bama is almost certainly going to the SEC title game. I doubt Barn beats them. Feels like they'll jam them in even after taking a 3rd loss there if they lost in the SEC title game.
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Good point. Remember when a 1-loss Alabama team got into the 4-team playoff over undefeated Florida State? Sure, it turns out that Florida State wasn't that good, and maybe they got it right. Except, Alabama failed to beat the cheaters... Where was I going with this?
Oh yeah - the precedent is set for taking Bama teams over other teams with fewer losses.

If we did this current format for 100 years, I would guess that at least 90% of the time, it could be thought of as a 3-3-3-3 system. 3 Big Ten teams, 3 SEC teams, 3 from ACC/Big 12/G5, and then 3 more that everyone else gets to fight over. If SEC gets 6 teams in, that means the SEC has won in all of the last spots. Or... the Big Ten failed to get all 3 of their teams in.
If Oregon gets in, I think the Big Ten has gotten all 3 of their teams in. So, after all of the conference champions and the SEC's best 3 teams, they think the SEC has the NEXT BEST 3 teams? Over Notre Dame? Over USC? Over BYU? Utah? A second ACC team? I mean... maybe. But I don't see them getting all 3 of those spots. They aren't winning those 3 spots with their best 3. It's their 4-6 teams.
 
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Zurp said:
Good point. Remember when a 1-loss Alabama team got into the 4-team playoff over undefeated Florida State? Sure, it turns out that Florida State wasn't that good, and maybe they got it right. Except, Alabama failed to beat the cheaters... Where was I going with this?
Oh yeah - the precedent is set for taking Bama teams over other teams with fewer losses.

If we did this current format for 100 years, I would guess that at least 90% of the time, it could be thought of as a 3-3-3-3 system. 3 Big Ten teams, 3 SEC teams, 3 from ACC/Big 12/G5, and then 3 more that everyone else gets to fight over. If SEC gets 6 teams in, that means the SEC has won in all of the last spots. Or... the Big Ten failed to get all 3 of their teams in.
If Oregon gets in, I think the Big Ten has gotten all 3 of their teams in. So, after all of the conference champions and the SEC's best 3 teams, they think the SEC has the NEXT BEST 3 teams? Over Notre Dame? Over USC? Over BYU? Utah? A second ACC team? I mean... maybe. But I don't see them getting all 3 of those spots. They aren't winning those 3 spots with their best 3. It's their 4-6 teams.
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If USC beats Oregon that might get the Big 10 4 teams. Seeing that USC didn't lose to UCLA and didn't lose to Washington.

The B1G is almost certainly getting a 3 teams at least.

Don't think the ACC is getting 2. Only way that may happen is if Ga Tech beat Georgia and then lost to whoever in the ACC title game. Though they do seem to like Cryami for some reason guess it's not out of the question that they get in along with the champ

Big 12 has a strong shot at 2 if Texas Tech and BYU get to the title game with 1 loss. Texas Tech only has 1 game left (West Virginia) so it's very likely for them. I guess they might still get 2 even if the 2nd team has 2 losses and manages to beat Texas Tech.

I don't think Vanderbilts resume would be strong enough to justify putting them in over a team who has 2 losses but took that 2nd loss in their conference title game.
 
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buckeyemania11 said:
Sadly 6 is extremely realistic with how the teams from other conferences keep failing. The SEC is going to capitalize big time off the ineptitude of the ACC Big 12 and BIG after Ohio State Indiana & Oregon
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Teams in every conference are failing. It’s just in the sec they fail up, Bama picks up second loss means they are in and so is Oklahoma. If Oregon picks up a second loss and they are out. Miami out with 2. Utah out with 2. BYU out with 1.
 
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buckeyemania11 said:
If USC beats Oregon that might get the Big 10 4 teams. Seeing that USC didn't lose to UCLA and didn't lose to Washington.

The B1G is almost certainly getting a 3 teams at least.

Don't think the ACC is getting 2. Only way that may happen is if Ga Tech beat Georgia and then lost to whoever in the ACC title game. Though they do seem to like Cryami for some reason guess it's not out of the question that they get in along with the champ

Big 12 has a strong shot at 2 if Texas Tech and BYU get to the title game with 1 loss. Texas Tech only has 1 game left (West Virginia) so it's very likely for them. I guess they might still get 2 even if the 2nd team has 2 losses and manages to beat Texas Tech.

I don't think Vanderbilts resume would be strong enough to justify putting them in over a team who has 2 losses but took that 2nd loss in their conference title game.
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If USC beats Oregon, there's also a chance the Big Ten only gets two teams, depending on what happens with Miami and ND.
 
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RhodeIslandBuck said:
If USC beats Oregon, there's also a chance the Big Ten only gets two teams, depending on what happens with Miami and ND.
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USC is getting in over Miami in this scenario. They are only 2 spots behind Miami right now (might be only 1 spot in tomorrows ranking with how Ga Tech looked Saturday). If they beat #8 Oregon @ Oregon they are 100% jumping Miami and Miami doesn't have a game left on their schedule that will jump them back ahead of USC.
 
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buckeyemania11 said:
USC is getting in over Miami in this scenario. They are only 2 spots behind Miami right now (might be only 1 spot in tomorrow’s ranking with how Ga Tech looked Saturday). If they beat #8 Oregon @ Oregon they are 100% jumping Miami and Miami doesn't have a game left on their schedule that will jump them back ahead of USC.
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USC gets Oregon's spot if they win. Question is will Oregon make it
 
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TampaBuckeyes said:
USC gets Oregon's spot if they win. Question is will Oregon make it
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Oregon's resume when it comes to wins is not good. Their best win in this scenario would be against Iowa.

However Oregon's losses would be much better than Miami (SMU and Louisville) it would depend on how much they value Miami's win vs ND and if they choose to ignore that Miami's losses were worse.
 
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