Post from Premierdrum over on Elevenwarriors this morning. I wondered how legit this poster was a few weeks back and asked about that on this board, but no one seemed to know who he was. Let's all hope he is accurate with his information, because this post is GOOD!
What a great morning it is, friends. I'm not one to take laps when I'm right, but these last few weeks have felt good. Also, it was great to see a few of you on Friday! The reach here is crazy.
This is going to be a bit of a long one, but stay with me. I think it's worth it.
It was clear to me on Friday that something was up, and I shared as much here. As it turns out, TCUN got a heads up that the NOA was coming this weekend. Two noteworthy points on that to start:
- The NCAA his historically diplomatic with these matters. Announcements, deliveries, and sanctions come out strictly when ready, with no care or concern for certain timeframes, information cycles, etc. However, as I've been telling you all for several weeks now, the goal has been to get this moving before the start of the season. Once they caught wind of the Stalions piece for Netflix, their plans were galvanized. And, when TCUN promoted Jim's return for the "championship" celebration this Saturday... well, that didn't play well. At all. I told you to memorize the phrase "reckless indifference to NCAA bylaws" to memory, and this was the northstar and guiding principle for the enforcement team. It's like running the same red light in front of the same cop every night, and giving him the double bird as you pass. Seeing the NCAA get this wrapped up in something like a 10 month timeframe is wild, and it shows the severity of the allegations and the amount of resources they committed to it.
- The NOA is worse and contains more serious charge than they expected. There was a believe with many in AA that the draft shared with them on July 25th may have been pumped up a bit to try to encourage a negotiated agreement between the parties. The beatwriters-in-blue had all but "confirmed" that the final NOA would be less severe than the draft, which should have been the first clue for everyone that it would be worse for them. More on the specific charges in a bit.
Anyways.
Their mid-Sunday leak came much earlier than expected, and of course via their sympathetics. That didn't just happen. There is lots of smoke that a copy of the final NOA is already in the hands of one journalist, almost certainly leaked by one of TCUN's attorneys. Once that info started spreading, TCUN panicked and "broke" that the formal notice had been received.
As for what's in it? The NOA was written to present a clear and comprehensive narrative that outlines exactly how the scheme was formed, how it operated, who managed it, who viewed its output, and the competitive advantage it provided. It also details the "reckless indifference to NCAA bylaws" not just in the scheme itself, but in the coverup and top-to-bottom lack of cooperation from TCUN leadership and coaches. There are likely a few nuggets that will surprise just about all of us once it drops. The only major question I haven't been able to answer yet is how much of the funding component is included in the notice. There were some, umm, interesting allegations this past spring.
So what do the next 90 days look like?
Don't rule out a negotiated settlement still. When talks broke down a few weeks ago, a major sticking point was that TCUN's attorneys wanted protection from the other open investigations if exchange for the "minimum acceptable framework" of punishment we've discussed here. Obviously that wasn't going to fly with the NCAA, given the severity of matters that still remain under active investigation.
Now that they have the NOA in hand - and they can scan the charges against the members of the COI - their motivation might have increased. An early season loss could be the tipping point for them to come back to the table to get this negotiated away. Publicly, they'll maintain their bluster and bravado up until the moment they can't, but the sense of those who know is that they are beginning to accept how bad this is for them.
On that "minimum acceptable framework" of punishments I've been discussing here, we should note that was the view of the enforcement staff and the NCAA's reps at the table due to the severity of the charges. In the NCAA's process, though, investigators don't recommend punishments to the COI. Some of the changes to the NOA from draft to final delivery were made to strengthen the outcome-based results of the investigation... setting the table for the COI to come to the "right" conclusion. Leaking the framework to a few of us over the last several weeks will prove beneficial as well, as its now in the collective understanding and awareness around CFB... especially those on the COI.
If this settles before 11/23, we likely won't get the satisfaction of beating Moore in our house. But that's okay.
When this all wraps up, possibly as late as early 2025, I'm confident we'll be satisfied. Their ill-gotten wins and championships will be wiped from the history books, their "iconic" coach's legacy will be forever tainted, and the smoldering remains of their program will be remembers for the biggest cheating scheme in the history of modern athletics.
And the NCAA *still* won't be done with them.
