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2024 College Football Playoffs Discussion (12 Team Format)

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Ohio State’s path to the College Football Playoff; How many Big Ten teams make CFP?​

The Buckeyes can get one step closer to a spot in the Big Ten title game with a win over Indiana on Saturday.

Ohio State enters the week at 9-1 overall and 6-1 in Big Ten play, with its only loss of the season coming in a 32-31 road contest against now-No. 1 Oregon. Despite the one blemish on the record, all of the Buckeyes’ major goals still remain ahead of them, including a spot in the B1G title game and a trip to the College Football Playoff.

In order for Ohio State to make it to Indianapolis, they will have to defeat Indiana this coming Saturday. The Hoosiers remain unbeaten, with a 10-0 record overall and a 7-0 mark in-conference. Curt Cignetti’s group managed to avoid both Oregon and Penn State on this year’s schedule, and have dominated everyone else in their path aside from Michigan, who played Indiana close but ultimately fell short in a 20-15 battle in Week 11.

Now, the Hoosiers head to Columbus, with the winner sitting in a favorable spot to play in the Big Ten title game against Oregon.

Should Ohio State emerge victorious, the two programs would have equal conference records of 7-1, and the Buckeyes would get the nod in a tie-breaker based on the head-to-head win. Ryan Day’s group would still need to defeat Michigan in the season finale to officially clinch their spot, whereas Indiana would be virtually locked in for the B1G title game with a victory over Ohio State, barring a catastrophic loss to a 1-9 Purdue team to end the year.

In the incredibly unlikely scenario that Indiana beats Ohio State but then loses to the Boilermakers, it would actually be Penn State that plays in the title game based on tiebreakers.

The Buckeyes would be out at 7-2 in-conference, whereas the Hoosiers and Nittany Lions would own equal 8-1 B1G records, also with identical records against common opponents (3-1 against Ohio State, Purdue, UCLA and Washington). It would then come down to the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents, which favors Penn State and gets James Franklin's group to Indy.

You got all that?

Moving on to the College Football Playoff...

The only guaranteed lock at this point to make the CFP from the Big Ten is Oregon. In the unlikely event the Ducks were to lose their final game of the regular season against Washington, they have already clinched a spot in the B1G title game. Even if they were to also lose to any one of Ohio State, Indiana or Penn State — who would all be top-five teams should they meet at Lucas Oil Stadium — Oregon would not be left out of the field of 12 at 11-2 having banked impressive wins against the Buckeyes and a top-15 Boise State team.

There are three other Big Ten teams that remain in contention for a spot in the College Football Playoff: Ohio State, Indiana and Penn State.

Ohio State’s path to the CFP is pretty obvious: win at least one of its last two games. If the Buckeyes defeat both Indiana and Michigan, they are in regardless of whether or not they get revenge against Oregon in the B1G title game. If they lose to Indiana but beat Michigan, they still get in at 10-2 with their only losses to No. 1 and No. 5 and a win over then-No. 3 Penn State. The same is true if they defeat the Hoosiers but lose to the Wolverines, as wins over No. 3 and No. 5 would be good enough even without a trip to Indy.

There is a small chance Ohio State could even make the College Football Playoff if it lost its last two games, although its resume at 9-3 with one quality win over Penn State would probably not be enough unless things broke the Buckeyes’ way elsewhere in the rankings.

Indiana’s path is a bit more precarious. Fair or not, it is clear that the selection committee is weary of the Hoosiers’ strength of schedule, currently sitting behind three one-loss teams despite being unbeaten. If Indiana beats Ohio State, it is almost certainly going to go undefeated in the regular season, and would be in with or without a win against Oregon in Indy. If the Hoosiers lose to the Buckeyes, thereby missing the B1G title game, it would be a little murky whether or not the committee would put them in even at 10-2 without a single ranked win on its ledger.
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ORD_Buckeye said:
I'm guessing that the committee gets cute with where they spot the G5 program. They might move them up from 12 to 11 or 10 if that means they take one of the cold weather games and keep an SEC team out of it
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If Boise State wins out, they’ll be competing for one of the ‘4 highest rated conference champion‘ spots with the ACC and Big XII CCGs, which are likely Miami-SMU and BYU-Colorado.

If either of those CCG winners has 2 losses (Colorado already does, everybody else has 1 loss), then Boise State, whose only loss is by 3-points to Oregon, would likely get the 4 seed.

Assuming tOSU wins its next 2 home games, it could play out like this:

#1 tOSU-Oregon winner from Indy
#2 SEC Champ (1-loss Texas or 2-loss Bama or 2-loss UGA or 2-loss aTm)
#3 1-loss ACC Champ (Miami or SMU)
#4 1-loss Boise State or 1-loss BYU

#5 B1G CCG runnerup
#6 1-loss Penn State
#7 1-loss Notre Dame
#8 2-loss UGA/Bama/Texas (won’t move to #7 to avoid SEC Champ in 2nd round)

#9 1-loss BYU or 1-loss Boise St or 2-loss Texas or 3-loss Bama/UGA
#10 1-loss Indiana or 2-loss Texas or 3-loss Bama/UGA
#11 2-loss Ole Miss (likely won’t play in CCG)
#12 2-loss Colorado or 1-loss Indiana or undefeated Army (then ND is out)

It’s almost certain the ACC and Big XII only get 1 bid, and the ND-Army loser is out.

I think a 2-loss Bama or UGA that gets a third loss to Texas in the CCG will still get in. But not if they lose before the CCG.

So the B1G gets 4, the SEC gets 4, ACC and Big XII get 1 each, last 2 spots are for Boise and the ND-Army winner. If ND beats Army and loses to USC, or if Army beats ND and loses to Tulane in their CCG, then the SEC can get a 5th bid for Tennessee. I think it’s likely that Ole Miss will be playing at either Penn State or ND.

If aTm beats Texas, the 2-3-4-5 spots for the SEC get very tricky, and at least 2 SEC schools will be beating the drum for a 16-team playoff. But let’s try living with 12 for a few years.
 
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BB73 said:
If Boise State wins out, they’ll be competing for one of the ‘4 highest rated conference champion‘ spots with the ACC and Big XII CCGs, which are likely Miami-SMU and BYU-Colorado.

If either of those CCG winners has 2 losses (Colorado already does, everybody else has 1 loss), then Boise State, whose only loss is by 3-points to Oregon, would likely get the 4 seed.

Assuming tOSU wins its next 2 home games, it could play out like this:

#1 tOSU-Oregon winner from Indy
#2 SEC Champ (1-loss Texas or 2-loss Bama or 2-loss UGA or 2-loss aTm)
#3 1-loss ACC Champ (Miami or SMU)
#4 1-loss Boise State or 1-loss BYU

#5 B1G CCG runnerup
#6 1-loss Penn State
#7 1-loss Notre Dame
#8 2-loss UGA/Bama/Texas (won’t move to #7 to avoid SEC Champ in 2nd round)

#9 1-loss BYU or 1-loss Boise St or 2-loss Texas or 3-loss Bama/UGA
#10 1-loss Indiana or 2-loss Texas or 3-loss Bama/UGA
#11 2-loss Ole Miss (likely won’t play in CCG)
#12 2-loss Colorado or 1-loss Indiana or undefeated Army (then ND is out)

It’s almost certain the ACC and Big XII only get 1 bid, and the ND-Army loser is out.

I think a 2-loss Bama or UGA that gets a third loss to Texas in the CCG will still get in. But not if they lose before the CCG.

So the B1G gets 4, the SEC gets 4, ACC and Big XII get 1 each, last 2 spots are for Boise and the ND-Army winner. If ND beats Army and loses to USC, or if Army beats ND and loses to Tulane in their CCG, then the SEC can get a 5th bid for Tennessee. I think it’s likely that Ole Miss will be playing at either Penn State or ND.

If aTm beats Texas, the 2-3-4-5 spots for the SEC get very tricky, and at least 2 SEC schools will be beating the drum for a 16-team playoff. But let’s try living with 12 for a few years.
Click to expand...
thumb_no_math-9133728495.jpg
 
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BB73 said:
If Boise State wins out, they’ll be competing for one of the ‘4 highest rated conference champion‘ spots with the ACC and Big XII CCGs, which are likely Miami-SMU and BYU-Colorado.

If either of those CCG winners has 2 losses (Colorado already does, everybody else has 1 loss), then Boise State, whose only loss is by 3-points to Oregon, would likely get the 4 seed.

Assuming tOSU wins its next 2 home games, it could play out like this:

#1 tOSU-Oregon winner from Indy
#2 SEC Champ (1-loss Texas or 2-loss Bama or 2-loss UGA or 2-loss aTm)
#3 1-loss ACC Champ (Miami or SMU)
#4 1-loss Boise State or 1-loss BYU

#5 B1G CCG runnerup
#6 1-loss Penn State
#7 1-loss Notre Dame
#8 2-loss UGA/Bama/Texas (won’t move to #7 to avoid SEC Champ in 2nd round)

#9 1-loss BYU or 1-loss Boise St or 2-loss Texas or 3-loss Bama/UGA
#10 1-loss Indiana or 2-loss Texas or 3-loss Bama/UGA
#11 2-loss Ole Miss (likely won’t play in CCG)
#12 2-loss Colorado or 1-loss Indiana or undefeated Army (then ND is out)

It’s almost certain the ACC and Big XII only get 1 bid, and the ND-Army loser is out.

I think a 2-loss Bama or UGA that gets a third loss to Texas in the CCG will still get in. But not if they lose before the CCG.

So the B1G gets 4, the SEC gets 4, ACC and Big XII get 1 each, last 2 spots are for Boise and the ND-Army winner. If ND beats Army and loses to USC, or if Army beats ND and loses to Tulane in their CCG, then the SEC can get a 5th bid for Tennessee. I think it’s likely that Ole Miss will be playing at either Penn State or ND.

If aTm beats Texas, the 2-3-4-5 spots for the SEC get very tricky, and at least 2 SEC schools will be beating the drum for a 16-team playoff. But let’s try living with 12 for a few years.
Click to expand...
We're not going to be 5 with two losses. We might squeak out a home game but will probably drop down to the next line.

I just can't see them giving a poverty program a bye, but they just might to avoid the crappy ratings that Boise is going to bring to the first round. If Army beats ND and then beats a ranked Tulane in the CCG, they're in and Boise is out. There is just going to be too much media and political pressure to not include them, plus they'll deserve it They'll be undefeated; Boise will have a loss. They'll have two wins much better than anything Boise has. They'll be a great television draw; Boise (unless they draw us, Bama or ND) will be the lowest rated game of the playoff.. I still think there'll be a lot of pressure even if they lose a close game to ND.
 
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ORD_Buckeye said:
We're not going to be 5 with two losses. We might squeak out a home game but will probably drop down to the next line.

I just can't see them giving a poverty program a bye, but they just might to avoid the crappy ratings that Boise is going to bring to the first round. If Army beats ND and then beats a ranked Tulane in the CCG, they're in and Boise is out. There is just going to be too much media and political pressure to not include them, plus they'll deserve it They'll be undefeated; Boise will have a loss. They'll have two wins much better than anything Boise has. They'll be a great television draw; Boise (unless they draw us, Bama or ND) will be the lowest rated game of the playoff.. I still think there'll be a lot of pressure even if they lose a close game to ND.
Click to expand...

I still think we would be #5 if both losses are to Oregon, mostly because I'm not sure who would move up ahead of us. If we lose to Indiana I definitely agree we drop lower than that.
 
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ORD_Buckeye said:
I'm guessing that the committee gets cute with where they spot the G5 program. They might move them up from 12 to 11 or 10 if that means they take one of the cold weather games and keep an SEC team out of it
Click to expand...
The committee is going to get cute. For sure. There will be some last-second switches to keep northern teams playing in the north and southern teams in the south. At least, for the "darling" southern teams - they'll play in the south. Georgia at Indiana? Nah - switch Notre Dame to at Indiana, and Georgia to at Alabama.
 
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ScriptOhio said:
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This is the situation I want. Fuck the CCG. If you lose it you may get knocked down outside of #8.

Instead stay ranked 5-8 to clinch a home playoff game instead of having to play a CCG at a neutral site and then a playoff game at a neutral site.

Except I'd rather a southern team like Miami come to Columbus in December instead.
 
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So, Boise had national primetime (7ET) game on Fox featuring a Heisman favorite. They couldn't crack a million and a half viewers. It was the 12th watched game that weekend and lowest rated FOX telecast. I don't know what the committee is doing having Army ranked that much lower than Boise. If Army beats ND, and I don't care how close it is, they'd better swap them.
 
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ORD_Buckeye said:
So, Boise had national primetime (7ET) game on Fox featuring a Heisman favorite. They couldn't crack a million and a half viewers. It was the 12th watched game that weekend and lowest rated FOX telecast. I don't know what the committee is doing having Army ranked that much lower than Boise. If Army beats ND, and I don't care how close it is, they'd better swap them.
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Well.... I'm one who hopes the committee doesn't care about ratings. I know a lot of people want the ratings to be important, but I hope they aren't.

I'm not jumping into the argument of whether Boise deserves to be in over Army. I don't know that answer. I just hope that generally, the ratings don't impact the rankings.
 
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Ohio State Remains No. 2 in the Third College Football Playoff Rankings of the 2024 Season​

On Tuesday, the CFP committee ranked Ohio State as the second-ranked team in America. Three more weeks remain until the committee sets the inaugural 12-team field.

The Buckeyes came in behind Oregon in the third rankings. The rest of the top 12 consists of Texas, Penn State, Indiana, Notre Dame, Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss, Georgia, Tennessee and Boise State.
 
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