Here are some bits ahead of week 1. When the Lollipop Guild is struggling to find good things to say at positions of serious concern that could cripple your season, things are...you know...not good.
Trying to move Zak Zinter to C in place of Vastardis: Cross-training your guards in case of injury makes sense, but this became a serious storyline from the end of spring through when he got dinged up in fall camp. It didn’t seem to take, and Vastardis seems firmly entrenched back at center. The fact that they tried—and the fact that Vastardis has lost weight two years in a row (he was 317, now 294) tells me this might be a problem spot. It also almost certainly means they were hoping to replace him with one of the guys on the bench.
So, you tried finding a warm body off the bench to replace your expected starting C and nobody was up to it? That's the anchor of an already iffy position group. You've basically been saying for 9 months that your running game is going to be excellent, but the guys that need to block for your 3 (unproven) RBs can't find a guy that's good enough for you to be comfortable at the key position on the line? Sounds great!
Remember, they had a promising FR Center who transferred to IU this offseason. Ouch.
RG/RT Andrew Stueber staying at RT: The cascade of injuries to the OL last year necessitated Stueber kicking back outside for most of the year after a couple of games at guard, where I was really hoping he could team up with Zinter. He might be overmatched by elite edge rushers. He also might not see one until November.
Your starting RT has bounced around and might struggle against good EDGE guys? And you're breaking in a new QB? Excellent.
Viper Michael Barret to WLB: The vipers are going to eat the transition cost the hardest, and Barrett at the ILB spot worried me because he gave back all the points he earned screaming off the edge by getting blocked into the Gatorade by tight ends, and now he’ll have to take on any linemen that escape the five-man front. He’s got enough size to play it in Macdonald’s system, and flipping from one 4-3 OLB position to another isn’t that big of a deal. Getting passed by Hill-Green is evidence Barrett’s been removed from his wheelhouse. The Ravens would use a hybrid there so there’s a role still, and this is relatively minor.
So, "Thicc Curtis Samuel" was, idk, okay? at your "Viper" position, but he got passed by a freshman there so you moved him to ILB where his biggest flaws are likely to be brutally exposed? Smart.
6th OL Joel Honigford to (slimmer) TE. He was an effective snowplow last year in their 6th lineman packages. He slimmed down 48 pounds and is now 257 and a tight end in fact. Can he catch a pass? Could he not at 305 when nobody was expecting it? Does this say anything about the position’s depth. Probably not.
You're thin and full of questions on the OL, but took one of your O-linemen and made him a TE. But, that probably doesn't say anything about the depth at TE (a crucial piece of any harbrau offense). Right.
Unused safeties to CB and vice versa. New safeties coach Ron Bellamy traded German (twin brother of Gemon) Green and Quinten Johnson to the cornerbacks for Jalen Perry and future considerations. German is another surviving member of the “let’s not get fades anymore” tall guy class but Quinten arrived the year after as an athlete with an injury. These might have been “let’s throw something at the wall” moves when they saw the CB situation, but none of these guys have produced a whisper since.
Your DBs were a disaster last year. So, take your only seemingly competent S and play him in some kind of "hybrid" role while throwing a bunch of other crap against the wall, none of which has apparently worked. Your new defense is going to be heavily predicated on blitzing. Seems like doing that with a pretty bad situation in the secondary might be a questionable decision, but whatever, I'm sure it'll work out because Ravens.
Mike Sainristil back to slot WR(?). He wasn’t bad but the addition of Baldwin means Sainristil too can move back inside after a season trying to be Nico Collins but half a foot shorter.
Sainristil has been hyped for what seems like a half of a decade now and has done nothing of note. He's their version of Barn Childress.
Mazi Smith to 3-4 nose tackle. It didn’t take long for the “Mazi needs to get his body in shape” talk to change into “Mazi is the breakout player of the defense” once Macdonald put him at the “tip of the spear” for his 3-4 defense. Smith is also up to 326 after being listed at 305 the last two seasons. Seems like a natural fit.
Former top DT recruit has done nothing, but he's bigger now!
Prediction time!
Yes there is, because we’ve been through waiting to fire the coach seasons before, and if it comes to that they really could go 3-9. Really. NIU is the only freebie on the schedule.
Best Case: I consider three of their games highly unlikely, but the rest are beatable. Tape the defense back together into something functional and weird, and there’s enough offensive firepower to go 10-2.
Final Verdict
I honestly can’t tell you which is more likely. But I can paint a feelingsgraph.
"I honestly can't tell you which is more likely."
I can.
