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2016 CFB Week 5 Open Thread

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The Wisconsin +10 line is one of those inflated warnings that the bookmakers/early-money know something you don't. It almost made me not pick them in the upset contest. Almost.

Maybe they know something, maybe not. There's a reason I don't bet real $. But I suspect what's in play here is that there are a lot of wolverweenies and Harbaugh-believers out there that are hammering the kool-aid hard.

Don't know who'll win, but Wiscy +10 seems crazy
 
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DaddyBigBucks said:
The Wisconsin +10 line is one of those inflated warnings that the bookmakers/early-money know something you don't. It almost made me not pick them in the upset contest. Almost.

Maybe they know something, maybe not. There's a reason I don't bet real $. But I suspect what's in play here is that there are a lot of wolverweenies and Harbaugh-believers out there that are hammering the kool-aid hard.

Don't know who'll win, but Wiscy +10 seems crazy
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Wiscy +10 does seem crazy. However, this feels like it's setting up to be scU M ~-17. This too is why I don't bet real cash, or as I call it, making a donation.
 
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DaddyBigBucks said:
The Wisconsin +10 line is one of those inflated warnings that the bookmakers/early-money know something you don't. It almost made me not pick them in the upset contest. Almost.

Maybe they know something, maybe not. There's a reason I don't bet real $. But I suspect what's in play here is that there are a lot of wolverweenies and Harbaugh-believers out there that are hammering the kool-aid hard.

Don't know who'll win, but Wiscy +10 seems crazy
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tsun is the most publicly bet team this season, by a lot and that line keeps going up. -11 right now.

DFBIA is putting their money where their boyfriends suckhole is and believing this will be a 2td+ kind of game.
 
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with biegel and gags out, i'd take ttun -11. it's not a bet i'd love, but i'd feel somewhat confident about it. i see wisconsin scoring very few points. if the badgers beat the spread (or win), it will be because speight fails against the pass rush and gives up some freebies that uw capitalizes on. otherwise, if ttun takes care of the ball, i think they roll.
 
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OSU_Buckguy said:
with biegel and gags out, i'd take ttun -11. it's not a bet i'd love, but i'd feel somewhat confident about it. i see wisconsin scoring very few points. if the badgers beat the spread (or win), it will be because speight fails against the pass rush and gives up some freebies that uw capitalizes on. otherwise, if ttun takes care of the ball, i think they roll.
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The part that gets me is that Wisky has already had 2 games against "like" talent levels in LSU and MSU.

This will be the first time all year tsun faces a team that has the same kind of athletes.

Then I think about that marshmallow soft tsun OL and, like you said, Speight under actual pressure for once. Biegel may be out but Watt is still there. I don't think tsun will be able to run and this is going to the first real test of Speight.

Flip it around when Wisconsin is on offense and they have seen at least something like the tsun DL in LSU and Sparty. If they can give their QB time, there are holes in the tsun secondary.

Special teams is a huge edge to tsun both because their (Wisky) fat kicker is out and they suck at covering punts which is not good if they kick to peppers.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
The part that gets me is that Wisky has already had 2 games against "like" talent levels in LSU and MSU.

This will be the first time all year tsun faces a team that has the same kind of athletes.

Then I think about that marshmallow soft tsun OL and, like you said, Speight under actual pressure for once. Biegel may be out but Watt is still there. I don't think tsun will be able to run and this is going to the first real test of Speight.

Flip it around when Wisconsin is on offense and they have seen at least something like the tsun DL in LSU and Sparty. If they can give their QB time, there are holes in the tsun secondary.

Special teams is a huge edge to tsun both because their (Wisky) fat kicker is out and they suck at covering punts which is not good if they kick to peppers.
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what i like about wisconsin is that with clark (6'4") out for ttun, they don't really have a third corner. when the badgers spread out, lewis will no longer be manning the slot. wheelright and fumagalli (te) are both over 6'3", so they should have big games. fumagalli, especially, should be targeted a lot since the end should be a blitz-killer. that being stated, i just don't have enough faith in wisconsin scoring in the big toilet. ttun should make enough big plays on both sides of the ball and certainly on special teams to pull away comfortably. i hope i'm wrong.

in regards to our game against ttun, losing clark is a massive blow. ttun has been most susceptible to teams with a mobile quarterback and a talented slot. with barrett and samuel, we'll be hitting them where they're weakest. good luck sending the house on us.
 
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Jake said:
I'm not buying Washington as a top ten team, yet. If they beat Stanford Football™ tonight I'll consider it.
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Top 10? Actually, yeah I think they're a Top-10 team. At this point, I'd take them over everyone BUT Ohio State, Bama, Clemson, Houston, Louisville, Wisconsin and we'll see about Stanford Football tonight. Somewhere betwen 7-10 seems about right to me.

The thing is, if they beat Stanford tonight, they are going to start getting playoff hype. I don't think they are that good.
 
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Mike80 said:
Top 10? Actually, yeah I think they're a Top-10 team. At this point, I'd take them over everyone BUT Ohio State, Bama, Clemson, Houston, Louisville, Wisconsin and we'll see about Stanford Football tonight. Somewhere betwen 7-10 seems about right to me.

The thing is, if they beat Stanford tonight, they are going to start getting playoff hype. I don't think they are that good.
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They were 7-6 last season. Their wins so far are over Rutgers, Idaho, Portland State, and Arizona - the last one in OT. There's nothing impressive on that resume'.

But they just went up 13-0 on the Cardinal so maybe tonight is when they earn some validation for the lofty ranking.
 
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Jaxbuck said:
The part that gets me is that Wisky has already had 2 games against "like" talent levels in LSU and MSU.

This will be the first time all year tsun faces a team that has the same kind of athletes.

Then I think about that marshmallow soft tsun OL and, like you said, Speight under actual pressure for once. Biegel may be out but Watt is still there. I don't think tsun will be able to run and this is going to the first real test of Speight.

Flip it around when Wisconsin is on offense and they have seen at least something like the tsun DL in LSU and Sparty. If they can give their QB time, there are holes in the tsun secondary.

Special teams is a huge edge to tsun both because their (Wisky) fat kicker is out and they suck at covering punts which is not good if they kick to peppers.
Click to expand...

This is excatly where my head is at. I think that tsun doesn't do much of anything when they have the ball. The Oline is still their greatest liability. I think it comes down to who has a cople of explosive plays.
 
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