-
Follow us on Twitter @buckeyeplanet and @bp_recruiting, like us on Facebook! Enjoy a post or article, recommend it to others! BP is only as strong as its community, and we only promote by word of mouth, so share away!
Game Thread 2015 Sugar Bowl: (1) Alabama vs. (4) Ohio State, Jan 1st @ 8:30p ET, ESPN (civilized thread)
- Thread starter MD Buckeye
- Start date
Sorry, Josh, you can't guarantee a 21+pt victory. Your constitution towards back alley surgery is weak.
Upvote
0
My perception:
High-scoring shootout: OSU can hang quite nicely with Alabama.
Low-scoring slugfest: definitely favors Bama, though OSU's big play ability on O (and creating TOs on D) can help them overcome that.
If Sims plays badly: I think Bama still has a decent shot to win, though he'll need help with a stout defense bailing him out.
If Cardale plays badly: I think OSU has a much slimmer chance of winning. Bama will sell out to stop EzE and Cardale must make them pay through the air (and a little bit on the ground).
While Vegas is strictly in the business of projecting perception, not outcomes, I think their point spread is pretty fair. This is a pretty good Buckeye team but not a great one. Fortunately I don't believe there are any great teams this year.
High-scoring shootout: OSU can hang quite nicely with Alabama.
Low-scoring slugfest: definitely favors Bama, though OSU's big play ability on O (and creating TOs on D) can help them overcome that.
If Sims plays badly: I think Bama still has a decent shot to win, though he'll need help with a stout defense bailing him out.
If Cardale plays badly: I think OSU has a much slimmer chance of winning. Bama will sell out to stop EzE and Cardale must make them pay through the air (and a little bit on the ground).
While Vegas is strictly in the business of projecting perception, not outcomes, I think their point spread is pretty fair. This is a pretty good Buckeye team but not a great one. Fortunately I don't believe there are any great teams this year.
Upvote
0
bukIpower
Head Coach
I'm in the camp that understands we aren't quite there yet as far as ready to take home the crown, but having said that we still have as good of a shot as any. IMO, this is the biggest obstacle and if by some chance we get past Alabama it would just be catastrophic if we lost the next game. Seriously, it'd be like USA losing the gold medal game after beating Russia. Ok maybe Alabama isn't that far ahead and we certainly don't need a miracle to win but to me after further watching some of Bama' I'll just say I am very in doubt about my original prediction (osu wins).
After a little more review I'm amazed at how many 50/50 balls they lose on the deep pass. For the most part their guys are in the area of the pass but they just lose track of it and the other guy makes a great play. It's not like they blow in the secondary and they're giving up wide open gashes (ala our bucks 13') no they're contested balls that they haven't had the good fortune of making. After watching though a lot of the SEC this year (to me anyways) lacks a true great offensive line with good blocking tight ends such as ours and because of that I do feel like I've been saying that we will run the ball on Bama' infact I'd be surprised if we were anywhere south of 180 and while our bama' visitors may think that's crazy you have to understand that's still heavily under our season average per game. The wild card as you say Jwinslow is Cardale and how he performs because if he doesn't out perform Sims IMO we probably lose because really the running games are about equal.
After a little more review I'm amazed at how many 50/50 balls they lose on the deep pass. For the most part their guys are in the area of the pass but they just lose track of it and the other guy makes a great play. It's not like they blow in the secondary and they're giving up wide open gashes (ala our bucks 13') no they're contested balls that they haven't had the good fortune of making. After watching though a lot of the SEC this year (to me anyways) lacks a true great offensive line with good blocking tight ends such as ours and because of that I do feel like I've been saying that we will run the ball on Bama' infact I'd be surprised if we were anywhere south of 180 and while our bama' visitors may think that's crazy you have to understand that's still heavily under our season average per game. The wild card as you say Jwinslow is Cardale and how he performs because if he doesn't out perform Sims IMO we probably lose because really the running games are about equal.
Upvote
0
Which speaks to the perception problem. The hyperbole about the league caused a serious inflation for LSU & aTm (which stemmed from the inflation of SCar's ranking). LSU did not stop Wisconsin's rushing attack (an injury did).
Now that is not to say that Alabama does not have a stout defense, they do. But it's tough to judge whether it is very good or stellar given the struggles of the other defenses that faced them beforehand.
It helps Alabama that OSU is notably less efficient and explosive on the ground without Barrett (though Elliott/Samuel and Marshall are quite a handful). However, like the last QB switch in August, they have traded in QB running ability for more arm talent and potential in the passing game. Whether their green QB can realize that potential again remains to be seen.
And there is the key. I like Cardale's potential and Alabama's weaknesses to provide a half dozen opportunities for deep completions. I don't know if he will execute when given the opportunity, nor am I sure that those passes will reach the endzone if completed. Can he make smart decisions in the redzone? Will the balanced and multiple looks from the OSU offense be enough to outflank the Alabama defense with less room to oprate?
Upvote
0
Gcashwell
Heisman
The thing about LSU in the first few games of the season is that they are a totally different team than they are now. I don't think that is a good game to look at.
A half dozen plays may not be giving Cardale enough credit...
I've done some more studying. It looks like Bama's pass defense compares similarly to Minnesota and Wisconsin. OSU had 200 passing yds vs Minnesota and 257 vs Wiscy. I could see the numbers go much higher than that after the Auburn performance.
Upvote
0
I think that's probably fair. Overall, I think it's fair to say MSt played a lot of suspect defenses. When that changed, so did their offensive production and record
Probably not, but it would sound a bit ridiculous to say he will have 12+ chances to torch Bama deep. That's probably true but that's not really saying much in a game where a defense dares the opposing QB to burn them deep.
Naturally Wisconsin was stellar and that was while dialing it back a bit in the second half. Minnesota was a blizzard and a sloppy game from a turnover standpoint. TOs transformed that game.
Up 14-0, a 56 yd INT retrn set up their first TD. 14-7.
Jalin fumbles on the goal line. Minny answers with a TD. 14-14.
Up 31-14, fumbled punt by Jalin leads to TD drive starting in the redzone. 31-21.
Upvote
0
SECorBust
It is an ugly trophy anyway.
I wonder how much Rashaan Evans plays and how much tOSU will try to run read option plays with Jones? The coaches played the 5* true FR a lot the last two games and he seems to really have caught on late in the season. I like tOSU's chances better with play action/pass heavy in this game. I think that plays into Jones strengths better too. Before he was running an offense designed for JT.
Upvote
0
OSUK
Sometimes lucid, mostly confused
I like a week between games because we have a few days to decide what we think the keys to the game are - and little time for neurosis to set in. Our analyses are based on assumptions that will mostly show to be erroneous. By the time Jan 1 rolls around, most CFB fans are raving lunatics.
Bama is and should be the favorite. OSU is worthy and capable. One team will play better than the other and win.
I value my sanity.
Bama is and should be the favorite. OSU is worthy and capable. One team will play better than the other and win.
I value my sanity.
Upvote
0
Telekinesis
Easily Amused by the Bitterly Disappointed
While Cardale has mentioned recently that he's been working on the read option, I don't see us utilizing it a lot for this game. It didn't work out too well against Wiscy, so I can't imagine it being a big threat against Alabama. I wouldn't mind seeing some pitches to Jalin heading for the edge, though. If Cardale runs, I'd prefer it to be more north-south to pick up a few yards rather than going with the option.
Upvote
0
While the ladies do some last minute shopping, I'm watching some Alabama film and rewatching the WVU game.
What do our resident Bama fans think about the WVU offense and how Alabama did against it, especially trying to project the results to Ohio State? I think it's an interesting comparison because WVU's QB is not a particularly strong runner. He's a pocket passer that can relocate but is not built to beat you with his feet nor survive the beating he'd take.
WVU offensive drives:
Drive 1: I'm seeing a pretty similar offense to the one that Cardale will deploy. A lot of 2-3 WR sets, a ton of jet sweep motions to slow down the defense and create some nice running lanes for Shell despite a very average OL for WVU. A lot of room to operate no this opening drive. Multiple wide open receivers were missed as well by bad throws or deflections. They stalled at the 3 and then went with an idiotic fade route to a slot dot. I like OSU's chances of pounding it home compared to WVU's finesse offense.
Drive 2: screen pass to RB for 12. Bama blitzes to stop the option, leaves quick hitter to sot wide open for 7. Quick hitter to outside WR for 5 yds + 7 more after the catch. After that much success, Bama switches to 6 in the box vs 6 on the line + QB & RB). Smallwod falls down, wastnig the play and allowing bama to sub. WVU audibles their backs into empty set. Bama keeps 6 in the box, WVU goes deep to collins, who gets away with a lot of contact 1v1 vs White. WVU audiles into another empt set, but Bama drops 7 and Dixon smokes the left tackle. Only one play where Bama outplayed WVU but it was enough to stop the drive.
What do our resident Bama fans think about the WVU offense and how Alabama did against it, especially trying to project the results to Ohio State? I think it's an interesting comparison because WVU's QB is not a particularly strong runner. He's a pocket passer that can relocate but is not built to beat you with his feet nor survive the beating he'd take.
WVU offensive drives:
Drive 1: I'm seeing a pretty similar offense to the one that Cardale will deploy. A lot of 2-3 WR sets, a ton of jet sweep motions to slow down the defense and create some nice running lanes for Shell despite a very average OL for WVU. A lot of room to operate no this opening drive. Multiple wide open receivers were missed as well by bad throws or deflections. They stalled at the 3 and then went with an idiotic fade route to a slot dot. I like OSU's chances of pounding it home compared to WVU's finesse offense.
Drive 2: screen pass to RB for 12. Bama blitzes to stop the option, leaves quick hitter to sot wide open for 7. Quick hitter to outside WR for 5 yds + 7 more after the catch. After that much success, Bama switches to 6 in the box vs 6 on the line + QB & RB). Smallwod falls down, wastnig the play and allowing bama to sub. WVU audibles their backs into empty set. Bama keeps 6 in the box, WVU goes deep to collins, who gets away with a lot of contact 1v1 vs White. WVU audiles into another empt set, but Bama drops 7 and Dixon smokes the left tackle. Only one play where Bama outplayed WVU but it was enough to stop the drive.
Last edited:
Upvote
0
Gcashwell
Heisman
We were without depriest in that game. He is the brains of the defense, and we weren't in the proper set a lot of times. White also torched our secondary.
It was a pretty ugly game all around by both teams. You could tell it was the first game of the season. You will notice a lot of inconsistency in alabama's play until after the Arkansas game. They kind of started to gel a little bit after that it seems.
I can tell you it would look a lot different if they played again, but I don't know if the score would change. Does that make any sense?
Upvote
0