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2015 NCAA Basketball Tournament Discussion

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I'll be curious on the frontcourt matchups. Defensively, Poythress might have been UK's best choice for Dekker. If I was Cal, I'd put WCS on Dekker, Lyles on Hayes, and KAT on Kaminsky. If was Bo, I'd put FK on KAT, Hayes on WCS and Dekker on Lyles. They could all be pretty interchangeable though I guess. I think for Dukan to be a net positive or even neutral, he'll need to knock down a three or maybe two of them.
 
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NorthCoastKid said:
Won't be watching the FF or title game. Fuck all the teams.
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I have noticed an odd level of respect from myself towards this Wisconsin team. Perhaps it is the high level of skill on display, the lack of football tackling in lieu of defense and rebounding, or that Bo forgot to start a power forward that looks and plays like the muscled enforcers of a bond villain.

My spartan dad noticed a similar lack of hatred from him towards them as well.
 
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OSUK said:
In the post-game after Ohio State thumped Oregon, our fellow-Ohioan (or traitor depending on how you view him), Des Howard said, "I could kick myself. I know that at its core, football is a physical game, and the bigger, stronger, more physical team usually wins." Des picked Oregon, and we all know why: he didn't want Ohio State to win, so he manufactured reasons why Oregon would win and ignored the big reason why they wouldn't.

I'm going to bring that principle over to this Final Four. A lot of us don't want Ky to win, and we may be doing the same thing. At its core, basketball is a game where the bigger, deeper, more talented team usually wins - and we all know who that is.

It's too bad for Wisconsin that they weren't on the other side of the bracket. I think they would have a better chance against Ky if Ky had a day to prepare. I have a feeling Cal is down there getting their minds right, and scheming about how to stop Wisky's offense. If they play well, I think they win by 10 or more. If they do get beat, it will be to Duke in the championship. I don't think Sparty has enough to handle the 9 Ky puts out there, but Duke may.
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I don't necessarily disagree with your thinking - more than likely I am probably grasping at reasons why I truly believe Wisconsin will beat Kentucky, due to my dislike of Calipari and the "system" he has started at UK. However, I believe at its core, college basketball is a game where execution, skill, and having several true pro prospects is what results in national championships. We can look at UK with all these "one-and-done" types and flippantly say they have talent, but I would challenge us to look a little deeper. Towns is a true, top-level pro prospect. I'd argue Lyles isn't that far behind. Booker is supposed to be a major talent, though he rarely is a focal point of the offense. Those are the most skilled players for UK, with WCS being a big-time defensive player.

Wisconsin has three frontcourt players who all have a chance to be really good pro players, in Kaminsky, Dekker, and Hayes. They are weaker in the backcourt, but so is UK. I'd argue that the style of play of Wisconsin, especially that of the frontcourt players, could lead to some real trouble for UK to combat. Who guards who for UK? If WCS guards Kaminsky, who guards Dekker and Hayes? Can Towns and Lyles stay with those guys on the perimeter, and then limit penetration? Wisconsin really inverts their offense well, meaning all of a sudden UK's defenders are all out of their comfort zone. You can argue that Wisconsin doesn't match up all that well defensively with UK, but I'm not sure I believe UK is an elite offensive team. They struggle in the halfcourt if Towns or Lyles are not dominant.

The key to me will be how Wisconsin defends the perimeter, and how UK decides to match up with Wisconsin defensively. If it turns into a halfcourt game, I honestly think Wisconsin has the advantage because they are so efficient offensively and they can get a good shot most every possession.
 
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Bulls-Eye said:
I don't necessarily disagree with your thinking - more than likely I am probably grasping at reasons why I truly believe Wisconsin will beat Kentucky, due to my dislike of Calipari and the "system" he has started at UK. However, I believe at its core, college basketball is a game where execution, skill, and having several true pro prospects is what results in national championships. We can look at UK with all these "one-and-done" types and flippantly say they have talent, but I would challenge us to look a little deeper. Towns is a true, top-level pro prospect. I'd argue Lyles isn't that far behind. Booker is supposed to be a major talent, though he rarely is a focal point of the offense. Those are the most skilled players for UK, with WCS being a big-time defensive player.

Wisconsin has three frontcourt players who all have a chance to be really good pro players, in Kaminsky, Dekker, and Hayes. They are weaker in the backcourt, but so is UK. I'd argue that the style of play of Wisconsin, especially that of the frontcourt players, could lead to some real trouble for UK to combat. Who guards who for UK? If WCS guards Kaminsky, who guards Dekker and Hayes? Can Towns and Lyles stay with those guys on the perimeter, and then limit penetration? Wisconsin really inverts their offense well, meaning all of a sudden UK's defenders are all out of their comfort zone. You can argue that Wisconsin doesn't match up all that well defensively with UK, but I'm not sure I believe UK is an elite offensive team. They struggle in the halfcourt if Towns or Lyles are not dominant.

The key to me will be how Wisconsin defends the perimeter, and how UK decides to match up with Wisconsin defensively. If it turns into a halfcourt game, I honestly think Wisconsin has the advantage because they are so efficient offensively and they can get a good shot most every possession.
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I hear what you are saying too - and largely agree with it. Let me tell you what I see as the big hole in your thinking.

My son played on a DIV basketball team that went to state his senior year. He played post. He was 6-2 craning his neck, but meaner than a copperhead. Pretty good player for HS. They were a senior-laden team. He played with another guy that was in the 6 foot 3-4 range who was really good on both ends of the floor. They had a 5'11" all-state 2G who was incredible at everything. They defended like demons and ran a very disciplined Princeton offense that relied on precise passing and smart play. They were very, very well-coached. They had a slew of 6' and under guys who were very skilled and solid. They played 10, pressed and ran the whole game, shot 3's at a very high percentage, and wore everyone out. They killed people in DIV. They had scheduled Dayton Dunbar that year. Dunbar had 3 starters 6'8" to 6'10". They also had a guard, named Cole I think, who was amazing, and who went on to play DI college ball (Miami,OH?). The Dunbar players were bigger, stronger, faster and everything else good you can add an -er onto. My son's team lost by 20.

My point is that size, athleticism, and talent are the biggest factors in the game of basketball. If the size/athleticism/talent differential isn't that high, then things like experience, coaching, preparation, etc. come into play and can make the difference in who wins, but the team with more of the bigger and better players has a huge advantage walking onto the court to tip off.

Wisconsin has the size it needs, and some really good talent, but it does not have the depth. But I do think the differential is close enough that if they bring their A+ game - particularly if they hit shots like ND did and the way they did to beat Arizona - they can definitely win. But in the end, the odds are that the bigger, deeper, more talented team will come out on top.
 
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OSUK said:
I hear what you are saying too - and largely agree with it. Let me tell you what I see as the big hole in your thinking.

My son played on a DIV basketball team that went to state his senior year. He played post. He was 6-2 craning his neck, but meaner than a copperhead. Pretty good player for HS. They were a senior-laden team. He played with another guy that was in the 6 foot 3-4 range who was really good on both ends of the floor. They had a 5'11" all-state 2G who was incredible at everything. They defended like demons and ran a very disciplined Princeton offense that relied on precise passing and smart play. They were very, very well-coached. They had a slew of 6' and under guys who were very skilled and solid. They played 10, pressed and ran the whole game, shot 3's at a very high percentage, and wore everyone out. They killed people in DIV. They had scheduled Dayton Dunbar that year. Dunbar had 3 starters 6'8" to 6'10". They also had a guard, named Cole I think, who was amazing, and who went on to play DI college ball (Miami,OH?). The Dunbar players were bigger, stronger, faster and everything else good you can add an -er onto. My son's team lost by 20.

My point is that size, athleticism, and talent are the biggest factors in the game of basketball. If the size/athleticism/talent differential isn't that high, then things like experience, coaching, preparation, etc. come into play and can make the difference in who wins, but the team with more of the bigger and better players has a huge advantage walking onto the court to tip off.

Wisconsin has the size it needs, and some really good talent, but it does not have the depth. But I do think the differential is close enough that if they bring their A+ game - particularly if they hit shots like ND did and the way they did to beat Arizona - they can definitely win. But in the end, the odds are that the bigger, deeper, more talented team will come out on top.
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Again, I hear you, and with a normal, average joe Wisconsin team, I'd be right there with you. I feel though like this Wisconsin team is a little different in regards to talent, athleticism, and depth than a normal Wisconsin team.

Dekker and Hayes will hold their own athletically, and Kaminsky is no slouch. In fact, I look at Kaminsky and I see a poor man's Christian Laettner. He has sneaky good athleticism, and a skill set that completely belies his size and position. That helps alleviate any concerns I have of Wisconsin's frontcourt to hold their own, and that, frankly, is the reason why Kentucky has had such a huge advantage over most teams. UK's frontcourt is so much bigger and more athletic than what they've faced it has been a mismatch. Look at Notre Dame - they had Connaughton and Vasturia playing the 3 and 4 against Lyles and WCS. And yet, because of their skill and relative athleticism they held their own. Wisconsin's frontcourt is much better than Notre Dame's.

Wisconsin has faced the Harrison's in the FF last year. Their size and strength in the backcourt will not surprise the Badgers. An important X-factor will be Traevon Jackson. He's finally back but obviously not the same player he was earlier this season. If he reverts to anything close how he played prior to his injury, then look out.

I don't know what it is, but I have this feeling that the Badgers will beat UK. I had a similar type of feeling going into the OSU-Oregon championship game that the Buckeyes would run Oregon off the field, because of matchups. The matchups for Wisconsin are there - this is the same team, minus Ben Brust, that was in this position last season. If you look back at that game, the returners for UK really didn't play well. They shot poorly, and overall didn't play all that well. Julius Randle, James Young, and Alex Poythress saved their season. Only Dakari Johnson is a returner who really played well in that game.

Wisconsin won't be intimidated and they won't be overwhelmed by UK's size and athleticism. That is where UK has tended to win a lot of games.
 
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Bulls-Eye said:
Again, I hear you, and with a normal, average joe Wisconsin team, I'd be right there with you. I feel though like this Wisconsin team is a little different in regards to talent, athleticism, and depth than a normal Wisconsin team.

Dekker and Hayes will hold their own athletically, and Kaminsky is no slouch. In fact, I look at Kaminsky and I see a poor man's Christian Laettner. He has sneaky good athleticism, and a skill set that completely belies his size and position. That helps alleviate any concerns I have of Wisconsin's frontcourt to hold their own, and that, frankly, is the reason why Kentucky has had such a huge advantage over most teams. UK's frontcourt is so much bigger and more athletic than what they've faced it has been a mismatch. Look at Notre Dame - they had Connaughton and Vasturia playing the 3 and 4 against Lyles and WCS. And yet, because of their skill and relative athleticism they held their own. Wisconsin's frontcourt is much better than Notre Dame's.

Wisconsin has faced the Harrison's in the FF last year. Their size and strength in the backcourt will not surprise the Badgers. An important X-factor will be Traevon Jackson. He's finally back but obviously not the same player he was earlier this season. If he reverts to anything close how he played prior to his injury, then look out.

A healthy Jackson could help even up the backcourt match up, but he isn't fully healthy. Ky will have the advantage in the frontcourt just based on numbers, and it will be tough on Wisky to out-perform them in the backcourt with Jackson not being 100%. But if Ky brings their B- game and Wisky their A+, I think it will be really, really interesting. Otherwise, Ky by 10+.

I don't know what it is, but I have this feeling that the Badgers will beat UK. I had a similar type of feeling going into the OSU-Oregon championship game that the Buckeyes would run Oregon off the field, because of matchups. The matchups for Wisconsin are there - this is the same team, minus Ben Brust, that was in this position last season. If you look back at that game, the returners for UK really didn't play well. They shot poorly, and overall didn't play all that well. Julius Randle, James Young, and Alex Poythress saved their season. Only Dakari Johnson is a returner who really played well in that game.

Wisconsin won't be intimidated and they won't be overwhelmed by UK's size and athleticism. That is where UK has tended to win a lot of games.
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If it weren't Bo Ryan and the fact that they are Wisconsin, I might be a big fan of this team. They are experienced, talented, big, and they play really smart basketball. They are student-athletes. They make very few mistakes. They play the game the right way. I love Sam Decker's play.

What they aren't is better, man for man, than Ky. And when this is all said and done, I think the most talented, deepest, and biggest team is the one that's likely to emerge.

I think you are under-valuing Ky's backcourt. Andrew Harrison, somewhere along the way, decided to stop being a big pouty baby, and just play. Aaron is a big shot waiting to happen. That guy is cold-blooded. Tyler Ulis (man, would I have loved to see him at Ohio State) is a big asset. He applies gnat-like defense, doesn't care if he scores, rarely turns the ball over, and if you don't guard him, he kills you.

I'll say it again, I look at it in terms of what Ky's path to victory is vs. their opponents. If Ky applies their size and talent to a game, they are going to win. They don't have to play great, just good. Anyone who wants to beat them has to play excellent and hope Ky doesn't bring their full arsenal to bear. When you get into "hoping" that's not a good place to be. But I think Wisconsin has the broadest path to victory of any team left given what they have.
 
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Bucky32 said:
I'll be curious on the frontcourt matchups. Defensively, Poythress might have been UK's best choice for Dekker. If I was Cal, I'd put WCS on Dekker, Lyles on Hayes, and KAT on Kaminsky. If was Bo, I'd put FK on KAT, Hayes on WCS and Dekker on Lyles. They could all be pretty interchangeable though I guess. I think for Dukan to be a net positive or even neutral, he'll need to knock down a three or maybe two of them.
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The Kentucky guys on defense will be more interesting than the Wisconsin players on defense but both will be intriguing. I do not think that the Kentucky players can back that far off of the Wisconsin big guys because I like the dumb Irish they are tall enough to be able to shoot over the Kentucky players. Maybe Cal will go zone:biggrin2:
 
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Bracket is screwed so I'm going B1G today, mostly because I know the network is drooling over a potential Kentucky-Duke final. Hopefully one of our conference members will pull off an upset and give me something to watch Monday night. Kentucky-Duke does nothing for me.
 
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Jake said:
Bracket is screwed so I'm going B1G today, mostly because I know the network is drooling over a potential Kentucky-Duke final. Hopefully one of our conference members will pull off an upset and give me something to watch Monday night. Kentucky-Duke does nothing for me.
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Nice work with regard to the bracket:wink: I think with regards to today Bucky might have a better chance of pulling be upset then Sparty. I do not think MSU has anyone that can stop Okafor. The only thing they can hope for is that he gets in foul trouble or sprains something. I just do not think Costello can match up against him and while Dawson might be able to bully him a little I just do not see it happening. I think the only hope that MSU has is if Valentine and Trice and the rest of the BG go off big time. Maybe Izzo will go zone:biggrin:
 
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