I don't know about TCU, but ND won't win out. They'll most likely pickup a loss in November. They're very young this year, and between the suspended players and injuries I think the depth and inexperience will hurt come November. They were lucky to make it to this point with one loss. If I had to guess, it'll be SEC champ, probably FSU, PAC-12 champ, and B1G champ. I think TCU will struggle with either WV or Kansas State, and the Big 12 won't get the benefit of a championship game. The only wrench in that formula is if the talking heads find a way to push for the 2 SEC team bull[Mark May].
Every year by the end of September all the talking heads go on and on about what are we going to do with all these undefeated teams? Eight weeks later we're all dissecting the corpses to determine which one-loss team, or even two-loss team, is most deserving. FSU will probably go unbeaten, though they certainly look a lot more vulnerable than they did last season. A very small group of teams, perhaps four or five, will finish with one loss, and every other team in the country will have two losses or more, and that probably includes Notre Dame. So yes, I agree with what you said.
However, if TCU and ND are among those one loss teams, and Oregon too, I say Ohio State is absolutely out. Kansas St could also pose a problem (narrow loss to Auburn in a game that anyone that watched knows they could have won by 2 TDs).
At this point we all should be praying for chaos, because OSU absolutely carries the albatross of having the worst loss in CFB. VT just looks worse and worse each passing week.
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