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- Thread starter y0yoyoin
- Start date
I'm pretty sure I said this year's system. They can't wait for the bowls to be filled to start selling ad space - the Super Bowl doesn't, neither do the BCS bowls.
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t_BuckeyeScott
Hall of Fame
Last year for a few weeks towards the end of the year, I did bowl projections in the bowl projections thread. I haven’t done that this year because I don’t have enough time. Because people have been arguing about it with some faulty reasoning behind it I find it in my heart to do this again.
Rules found at http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597
Things to remember based on the rules:
1. The AAC conference (The one with the Bearkitties and Louisville for this year, also formerly Big East football teams that haven’t moved on to better conferences because no one wants them ) has an Automatic Qualifying team even though they shouldn’t (and won’t next year) UCF has clinched that bid and must be selected.
2. The highest ranked Non-AQ conference champ must be selected to a BCS bowl provided it ranks higher than one of the AQ qualifying conference champions (this somehow included the former Big East and now includes the AAC for one more year) and is in the top 16. This means NIU is in if the win and out if they lose.
3. The Team Selection procedures. The National Championship game gets first pick. After that the Bowls with conference ties that lost a team to the National Championship get to replace those teams in order of rank, but can’t choose a team whose conference has another BCS bowl tie-in in order of BCS rank of the team replacing. Then the rest of the Bowls may select the from the top 14 in the BCS in a predetermined order for the year, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta, this year. All AQ teams must be selected to include a team qualifying from rule #2 above.
4. I don’t believe in back room deals. No bowl in recent memory has not taken the best team for that Bowl.
5. Nobody wants an AAC team or a NON-AQ team.
6. #5 ad infintum
So Here Goes:
It’s amazing how many scenarios there still are with only one week to play.
I like exhausting this thing in the honor of completeness so let’s go by the most BCS affecting winning scenarios for this weekend.
At this point we can predict certain teams will definitely be in the BCS at some level OSU, FSU, SEC Champ, Alabama, Pac12 Champ, Big 12 Champ and UCF. That’s 7 of 10 possible BCS selections right there. MSU, NIU, and Duke can guarantee the final spots by winning their games. That’s 10 teams for 10 spots. Neither NIU nor Duke will be in a BCS bowl if they lose this weekend.
I’m personally torn whether MSU will stay in the top 14 should they lose to OSU. Sparty will almost certainly drop below Clemson and Oregon. If Stanford wins MSU is safer. If ASU beats Stanford, it will likely come down to whether MSU is ranked below 14 NIU, Stanford, 15 LSU and 16 UCF. MSU should probably cheer Stanford, Bowling Green, and SMU this weekend just in case. If MSU does stay in top 14 I think the Rose Bowl is loyal to the B1G and Sparty. MSU is the only possible B1G at large.
The other possible at large teams in some order of preference depending on bowls are Oregon, 1 loss Baylor, and Clemson. I think it will be 1 of those teams if NIU wins and 2 if they lose.
Easiest to most difficult.
Rose Bowl: Stanford vs. Michigan State
Easiest part: The winner of the PAC12 will be in the Rose Bowl. I’m projecting Stanford to win. Media has been hyping ASU so I expect the opposite. I’m nearly guaranteeing the loser will not be in a BCS bowl. Below, if ASU wins just sub them for Stanford. If MSU wins they go to the Rose. Lose and stay in BCS top 14 and they still go to the Rose. If MSU drops out of top 14 the Rose Bowl can’t select them and will be likely to choose from at-large FSU (if they lose), Baylor or Clemson if they lose due to other tie-ins and restrictions. I believe that’s the order of preference if they can’t have MSU.
Fiesta: Oklahoma State vs. Northern Illinois
I’m predicting Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma this weekend (I wonder if Brady Hoke is confused about this game too). The Fiesta will end up with the winner of the Big 12. If not OkSU, the winner of Baylor-UT. Probably Baylor. If UT neither OkSU nor Baylor will get at-large bids.
Predicting NIU will win and play the winner of the Big 12 in Fiesta who gets last team selection. NIU is last pick in every scenario. If NIU loses UCF goes to the Fiesta in every scenario.
Sugar: Missouri vs. Central Florida
Most likely First team will be from SEC: winner of SEC Championship, then Alabama. UCF will be in this game if NIU wins. That’s the easy part.
If one of top 2 loses then Alabama will go to Sugar. If both FSU & OSU lose the BCS Game will likely include both the SEC Champ and Alabama. The Sugar bowl with first pick takes OSU before FSU I think.
If NIU loses the Sugar’s choices for the second team will likely be Oregon, Baylor, or Clemson in that order.
Orange: Alabama vs. Oregon
Alabama is a an easy call for the first selection, but I may be going out on limb selecting Oregon over Clemson for the ACC aligning Orange, but ACC schools suck at traveling and this is a matchup lots of people have wanted to see for a couple of years. Also I don’t think the Orange loves its ACC alliance the way the Rose loves its alliances. I also could see Baylor over Clemson here for the same reason. Oregon over Baylor because Nike.
If OSU loses FSU wins think Ohio State is the easy choice for their first selection after Alabama ends up in the Fiesta. Think Oregon is still the 2nd pick. In the opposite Scenario Duke obviously becomes the ACC auto bid. But the 2nd pick becomes interesting if NIU wins and MSU is in the Rose Bowl. I think the ACC has no choice but to run back Duke & FSU in that scenario! If the Rose has FSU I still think the ACC takes Oregon.
If FSU and OSU both lose the Orange takes OSU and Oregon.
BCSNCG: Florida State vs Ohio State
Replacement Order: SEC Champ, Alabama
Rules found at http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597
Things to remember based on the rules:
1. The AAC conference (The one with the Bearkitties and Louisville for this year, also formerly Big East football teams that haven’t moved on to better conferences because no one wants them ) has an Automatic Qualifying team even though they shouldn’t (and won’t next year) UCF has clinched that bid and must be selected.
2. The highest ranked Non-AQ conference champ must be selected to a BCS bowl provided it ranks higher than one of the AQ qualifying conference champions (this somehow included the former Big East and now includes the AAC for one more year) and is in the top 16. This means NIU is in if the win and out if they lose.
3. The Team Selection procedures. The National Championship game gets first pick. After that the Bowls with conference ties that lost a team to the National Championship get to replace those teams in order of rank, but can’t choose a team whose conference has another BCS bowl tie-in in order of BCS rank of the team replacing. Then the rest of the Bowls may select the from the top 14 in the BCS in a predetermined order for the year, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta, this year. All AQ teams must be selected to include a team qualifying from rule #2 above.
4. I don’t believe in back room deals. No bowl in recent memory has not taken the best team for that Bowl.
5. Nobody wants an AAC team or a NON-AQ team.
6. #5 ad infintum
So Here Goes:
It’s amazing how many scenarios there still are with only one week to play.
I like exhausting this thing in the honor of completeness so let’s go by the most BCS affecting winning scenarios for this weekend.
At this point we can predict certain teams will definitely be in the BCS at some level OSU, FSU, SEC Champ, Alabama, Pac12 Champ, Big 12 Champ and UCF. That’s 7 of 10 possible BCS selections right there. MSU, NIU, and Duke can guarantee the final spots by winning their games. That’s 10 teams for 10 spots. Neither NIU nor Duke will be in a BCS bowl if they lose this weekend.
I’m personally torn whether MSU will stay in the top 14 should they lose to OSU. Sparty will almost certainly drop below Clemson and Oregon. If Stanford wins MSU is safer. If ASU beats Stanford, it will likely come down to whether MSU is ranked below 14 NIU, Stanford, 15 LSU and 16 UCF. MSU should probably cheer Stanford, Bowling Green, and SMU this weekend just in case. If MSU does stay in top 14 I think the Rose Bowl is loyal to the B1G and Sparty. MSU is the only possible B1G at large.
The other possible at large teams in some order of preference depending on bowls are Oregon, 1 loss Baylor, and Clemson. I think it will be 1 of those teams if NIU wins and 2 if they lose.
Easiest to most difficult.
Rose Bowl: Stanford vs. Michigan State
Easiest part: The winner of the PAC12 will be in the Rose Bowl. I’m projecting Stanford to win. Media has been hyping ASU so I expect the opposite. I’m nearly guaranteeing the loser will not be in a BCS bowl. Below, if ASU wins just sub them for Stanford. If MSU wins they go to the Rose. Lose and stay in BCS top 14 and they still go to the Rose. If MSU drops out of top 14 the Rose Bowl can’t select them and will be likely to choose from at-large FSU (if they lose), Baylor or Clemson if they lose due to other tie-ins and restrictions. I believe that’s the order of preference if they can’t have MSU.
Fiesta: Oklahoma State vs. Northern Illinois
I’m predicting Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma this weekend (I wonder if Brady Hoke is confused about this game too). The Fiesta will end up with the winner of the Big 12. If not OkSU, the winner of Baylor-UT. Probably Baylor. If UT neither OkSU nor Baylor will get at-large bids.
Predicting NIU will win and play the winner of the Big 12 in Fiesta who gets last team selection. NIU is last pick in every scenario. If NIU loses UCF goes to the Fiesta in every scenario.
Sugar: Missouri vs. Central Florida
Most likely First team will be from SEC: winner of SEC Championship, then Alabama. UCF will be in this game if NIU wins. That’s the easy part.
If one of top 2 loses then Alabama will go to Sugar. If both FSU & OSU lose the BCS Game will likely include both the SEC Champ and Alabama. The Sugar bowl with first pick takes OSU before FSU I think.
If NIU loses the Sugar’s choices for the second team will likely be Oregon, Baylor, or Clemson in that order.
Orange: Alabama vs. Oregon
Alabama is a an easy call for the first selection, but I may be going out on limb selecting Oregon over Clemson for the ACC aligning Orange, but ACC schools suck at traveling and this is a matchup lots of people have wanted to see for a couple of years. Also I don’t think the Orange loves its ACC alliance the way the Rose loves its alliances. I also could see Baylor over Clemson here for the same reason. Oregon over Baylor because Nike.
If OSU loses FSU wins think Ohio State is the easy choice for their first selection after Alabama ends up in the Fiesta. Think Oregon is still the 2nd pick. In the opposite Scenario Duke obviously becomes the ACC auto bid. But the 2nd pick becomes interesting if NIU wins and MSU is in the Rose Bowl. I think the ACC has no choice but to run back Duke & FSU in that scenario! If the Rose has FSU I still think the ACC takes Oregon.
If FSU and OSU both lose the Orange takes OSU and Oregon.
BCSNCG: Florida State vs Ohio State
Replacement Order: SEC Champ, Alabama
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If SMU upsets UCF and Cincy beats Louisville impressively enough tonight to jump UCF in the BCS standings, there will have been a lot of wasted talk about UCF's place in the BCS Bowls.
Scratch that. Even if UCF gets an automatic bid, there has been.
Scratch that. Even if UCF gets an automatic bid, there has been.
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Actually they can and do. Ad fees are sometimes even negotiated after-the-fact.
Super Bowl is a different animal since it's guaranteed "two best teams" from the most-watched Professional Sport.
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TampaBuckeyes
Assistant Coach
I can't believe we are still talking about this. I'm sorry to everyone that I started this mess.
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Talking about what? Young Brady Hoke eating pancakes?
Ok - IHOP pancakes or Denny's Pancakes? Anyone?
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scarletmike
Researching the Magic!
Picture looks like Denny's pancakes, however I much prefer IHOP's.
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