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2011 NCAA Tournament Projections/Bracketology

Jake;1884228; said:
Interesting potential match ups in this updated projection:
Second round - Tennessee
Sweet 16 - Xavier or St John's
Regional Final - Florida or Notre Dame

That bracket also had a potentially dangerous #4 seed.
 
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BB73;1884238; said:
That bracket also had a potentially dangerous #4 seed.

True.

I was speaking more along the lines of recent history (Tennessee, Florida, Xavier) and regional interest (ND). We haven't had a meaningful match up with St. John's since the 1999 Final Four run (that has been erased from history).

I did see us beat them in St. John Arena on our way to the 1986 NIT title, though. :biggrin:
 
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What does everyone think of the new format? I think the opening games should be the lowest 8 auto qualifiers to make more competitive 16s, not the "last 4 in" bubble crap personally.
 
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Bucklion;1884247; said:
What does everyone think of the new format? I think the opening games should be the lowest 8 auto qualifiers to make more competitive 16s, not the "last 4 in" bubble crap personally.

TV ratings.

The projections showed two of the "play in" games included schools like Boston College, Virginia Tech and Michigan State. Few people are going to tune in for Bethune Cookman versus McNeese State.

You didn't think it was about fairness, did you? :p
 
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Lucky for your head, I don't see SDSU doing much damage.
SDSU: great off/def efficiency, rebounds well, has decent size (Leonard 6'7, White 6'6, Thomas 6'9, Carlwell 6'10), scores in the paint consistently with Leonard and Thomas and their FT% is dramatically increased over the last 2 seasons. I think they will challenge very well for sweet-16 and possibly elite-8. After that its always a crap-shoot. Seeing as, in their history, they have yet to win an NCAA tournament game, I will gladly take 2 or 3 wins in the 2011 tournament.

I don't think "doing much damage" is a suitable way to put it. Their 2 losses came to BYU, a team that relied on jump-shots and 3-pointers. Very similar to the losses that Ohio State suffered against Wisconsin and Purdue. As an Aztec fan, I've grown to not be too optimistic on winning games. But SDSU is legitimately a top-10 team this season.
 
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Diego-Bucks;1884278; said:
SDSU: great off/def efficiency, rebounds well, has decent size (Leonard 6'7, White 6'6, Thomas 6'9, Carlwell 6'10), scores in the paint consistently with Leonard and Thomas and their FT% is dramatically increased over the last 2 seasons. I think they will challenge very well for sweet-16 and possibly elite-8. After that its always a crap-shoot. Seeing as, in their history, they have yet to win an NCAA tournament game, I will gladly take 2 or 3 wins in the 2011 tournament.

I don't think "doing much damage" is a suitable way to put it. Their 2 losses came to BYU, a team that relied on jump-shots and 3-pointers. Very similar to the losses that Ohio State suffered against Wisconsin and Purdue. As an Aztec fan, I've grown to not be too optimistic on winning games. But SDSU is legitimately a top-10 team this season.

Living in San Diego now, I will root for the home team. But the problem is... they haven't beaten anyone. No victories against any teams in the top 25, one win against a team that was in the top 25 at the time in Gonzaga (by 3 points), and failed miserably against BYU twice, losing by 13 each time.

So again, while I root for SDSU when they play, I really don't think they're top 10 quality. 29 wins against mediocre competition. UNLV and New Mexico are solid, but worthy wins to be in the top 10, not.
 
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Living in San Diego now, I will root for the home team. But the problem is... they haven't beaten anyone. No victories against any teams in the top 25, one win against a team that was in the top 25 at the time in Gonzaga (by 3 points), and failed miserably against BYU twice, losing by 13 each time.

So again, while I root for SDSU when they play, I really don't think they're top 10 quality. 29 wins against mediocre competition. UNLV and New Mexico are solid, but worthy wins to be in the top 10, not.
They have 2 games against current top-25 teams and it is to BYU x2. Anyone who watched the games knows that BYU didn't destroy SDSU in those games. They were close contests for 35+ minutes.

They are 5-2 against RPI top-50 teams, 11-2 against RPI top-100 teams. They are 34th in SOS (on par with Duke) and their conference, the MWC is the #3 RPI conference. In Jeff Sagarin's polls, the MWC is the #5 conference, and SDSU is the #6 team in his power poll. BTW, in Sagarin's polls, UNLV is a top-25 team, and SDSU is 2-2 vs. the top-25 and 4-2 against the top-50. Sagarin has their schedule rated at #48, on par with Texas.

Is the RPI ranking perfect? Not at all. But it does at least show that SDSU has played and beaten consistently good (not mediocre) competition.
 
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Diego-Bucks;1884326; said:
They have 2 games against current top-25 teams and it is to BYU x2. Anyone who watched the games knows that BYU didn't destroy SDSU in those games. They were close contests for 35+ minutes.

They are 5-2 against RPI top-50 teams, 11-2 against RPI top-100 teams. They are 34th in SOS (on par with Duke) and their conference, the MWC is the #3 RPI conference. In Jeff Sagarin's polls, the MWC is the #5 conference, and SDSU is the #6 team in his power poll. BTW, in Sagarin's polls, UNLV is a top-25 team, and SDSU is 2-2 vs. the top-25 and 4-2 against the top-50. Sagarin has their schedule rated at #48, on par with Texas.

Is the RPI ranking perfect? Not at all. But it does at least show that SDSU has played and beaten consistently good (not mediocre) competition.

Good stats, again, I'm not discrediting SDSU, they're a good team, just saying I don't feel they are a legit top 10 team. Compare those numbers to other teams in the top 10, 15, 20 and 25. RPI has 9/11 BIG 10 teams in the RPI top 100, and 5 in the top 50. The Big East has 9 in the top 33!

But, forget Saragin and RPI, and look at straight top 25... as an RPI 100 doesn't mean much when half those teams don't even make the tournament. SDSU had 2 opprotunities to show they are a top tier team in playing BYU, and no matter if they played "close" at times, they lost, both games... by 13. And even at that, BYU's only impressive wins outside of the MWC was a drubbing against U of A and a one point win against St. Marys... not exactaly Kansas, Pitt or Duke.
 
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BB73;1884238; said:
That bracket also had a potentially dangerous #4 seed.
Forget the year but it was one of Ayers' last (thank goodness) and we played St. Johns in the Silverdome and Louie embarrassed us so bad, well I should say embarrassed RA's coaching, that I didn't even stick around for the next day I was so embarrassed.

I'm also another one that does not want the boys from South Bend in our bracket. They sort of remind me of a better sCum .
 
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Ken Pomeroy's rankings show SDSU as #9 nationally; I think that's probably about right.

Regarding Notre Dame, they don't frighten me at all. (BTW, kenpom has them at 15th nationally, well below Wisconsin and Purdue, both top-7 teams in his rankings.) The teams I find scary are North Carolina, Kansas, Pittsburgh, Kentucky and Texas. Not coincidentally, I think the remaining one-seeds will come from this cohort (not including UK, but definitely including the Tarheels, who I think should be a one-seed).
 
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