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- Thread starter bkochmc
- Start date
MaxBuck;1890647; said:
I'm with Max in regards to UK. Same way I felt about Tennessee last year, bad matchup but if we can get past them we should be ok.
The more I think about Belmot vs UW the more I lean UW. Belmont is a high tempo team and in the tourney the half court game usually reigns supreme. If Belmont controls tempo though they will run Wisky out of the gym.
I like Zags to beat St Johns, Wofford over BYU and Utah State over K State for an unreasonable amount of upsets in one bracket but that bracket is FUBAR'd to start with so tifwiw.
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Diego-Bucks
Lost in Canada
S-D-S-U SDSU Aztecs fight!
We are gonna rock the tournament this year and meet up with the Buckeyes in the Final Four. You heard it hear first...
We are gonna rock the tournament this year and meet up with the Buckeyes in the Final Four. You heard it hear first...
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DZ83CK
Not Banned
Bucky32;1890565; said:
Oakland plays zero defense, though. I'm not a big fan of how Texas has been playing, but I would be very surprised if they don't handle Oakland given how weak Oakland's defense is & how tough UT's defense is in the paint - Oakland gave up over 100 points to Valpo for crying out loud.
Richmond over Vandy might be a good upset pick, but it's hard to say - you could make an argument for both sides - on the one hand Richmond has a great PG and a very talented forward who can step out and shoot well, they play a Princeton style that is hard to prepare for while Vandy has struggled with turnovers this year after losing their PG last year; on the other hand, Vandy has a more talented group of players than Richmond and one of the best 3-point shooters in college basketball, and Richmond plays a zone defense.
St. John's is the type of team that I can't see going very far - they overachieved during the regular season and had a key player just tear an ACL, but on the other hand I believe Gonzaga is overrated. Gonzaga came on at the end of the year, and their weakness on D is opponents hitting a lot of 3s and SJU doesn't shoot a lot of 3s, so Gonzaga might be the right pick. Whoever wins the SJU-Zags game should lose in the next round.
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Jaxbuck;1890657; said:
Honestly I don't think there will be too many double digit seed upsets (11 or above...7/10s can be a jump ball) this year...it's trendy, so as has been said already, it will probably hold closer to true to form. I like Missouri over Ohio's only NCAA team (well, in the bottom half of the West bracket, that is), and that's about it. The old 5/12 I think Richmond has a shot over Vanderbilt, and of course Utah State is intriguing...beyond that I think there are some good clubs (Oakland, Belmont, Bucknell, Gonzaga...but no one really jumps out at me. One other to watch is Morehead State...that dude is large on the boards, and Louisville has been known to either make a run to the Final 4 or suck hind tit in the tournament, so...
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DZ83CK
Not Banned
I really don't like Utah State. There's a reason they were a #12 seed in spite of only losing 3 games this year - the WAC is not very good. Utah State is a mid-major who's only great against other mid-majors - if you watched them play, you would know they are not a very good basketball team, numbers be damned - they got killed on the boards against all the high major teams they have played the past couple years. Utah State has had a similar profile the past several years and made the tourney a lot but hasn't won a game in almost 10 years with multiple blowout losses - they just don't pass the smell test to me.
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Bucklion;1890671; said:
In 6/11 games I could see UC and St Johns getting beat
In 5/12's K State and maybe WVU (Huggins is famous for it)
Thats about a normal amount for those seeded games I think. 1-4's I think you are always better off taking the chalk, just from the percentages you are playing in your favor (gotta be well north of 80% total).
7/10 and 8/9 games, break out your lucky coin.
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Diego-Bucks
Lost in Canada
Meh. I am not concerned. We are playing with house money. Beat the #15 seed and we'll have done what no other Aztec squad could do. Temple/Penn State is favorable. And if we face off against UConn, it'll be in Anaheim, CA... about an hour away from campus.You'll have to make it to the 3rd round first, and that ain't happening ...
We shall see, I anticipate SDSU being the least liked top-4 seed in any of the brackets to advance.
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SloopyHangOn
WhoO WhoO WhoO!
Xavier, Arizona, Louisville, St. John's.
Easiest Final Four predictions ever. I'm 'bouts tah be RICH!
Easiest Final Four predictions ever. I'm 'bouts tah be RICH!
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Diego-Bucks
Lost in Canada
According to KenPom efficiency log5 formula and Jeff Sagarin's Predictor models.
Duke gets the toughest #2 seed (San Diego State is #6 in KenPom and #8 in JS), the easiest #3 seed UConn is #17 and #16 in the two polls) and by far the hardest #4 seed with Texas (the #4 overall team in both formulas).
Ohio State gets the 3rd best #2 seed with UNC (the #14 and #15 overall, behind SDSU and Notre Dame), the 2nd best #3 seed and the 2nd hardest #4 seed with Kentucky (who is a #7 overall in both formulas).
KenPom did quite well in predicting the conference tournaments. I'll be paying close attention.
http://kenpom.com/
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1011.htm
I'll reiterate, I think SDSU will go undervalued in most bracket considerations dramatically behind the exposure that a team like UConn and Duke receives nationally. However, you look at most metrics like off./def. efficiency and SDSU ranks in the elite levels nationally. Over 33 games against some major competition (#43 overall schedule, not far from Duke, Texas and Kansas' strength of schedule), its not the worst thing in the world to consider the Aztecs more than pretty good, slightly less than legit title contender...
Do I expect Final Four? I don't think we cause enough FTA to punish hard defensive sets, and we don't have a consistent 3-point shot. However, we play tough, consistent defense and can find points in the paint in multiple ways. Its a recipe for consistency but perhaps ripe for a hot hand to knock us off.
Duke gets the toughest #2 seed (San Diego State is #6 in KenPom and #8 in JS), the easiest #3 seed UConn is #17 and #16 in the two polls) and by far the hardest #4 seed with Texas (the #4 overall team in both formulas).
Ohio State gets the 3rd best #2 seed with UNC (the #14 and #15 overall, behind SDSU and Notre Dame), the 2nd best #3 seed and the 2nd hardest #4 seed with Kentucky (who is a #7 overall in both formulas).
KenPom did quite well in predicting the conference tournaments. I'll be paying close attention.
http://kenpom.com/
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1011.htm
I'll reiterate, I think SDSU will go undervalued in most bracket considerations dramatically behind the exposure that a team like UConn and Duke receives nationally. However, you look at most metrics like off./def. efficiency and SDSU ranks in the elite levels nationally. Over 33 games against some major competition (#43 overall schedule, not far from Duke, Texas and Kansas' strength of schedule), its not the worst thing in the world to consider the Aztecs more than pretty good, slightly less than legit title contender...
Do I expect Final Four? I don't think we cause enough FTA to punish hard defensive sets, and we don't have a consistent 3-point shot. However, we play tough, consistent defense and can find points in the paint in multiple ways. Its a recipe for consistency but perhaps ripe for a hot hand to knock us off.
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DZ83CK
Not Banned
I can't pick SDSU to the Final Four because they showed an extreme lack of poise on O when I saw them play BYU when the Cougars were at full strength. You won't win in the tourney when your offense is largely based on transition baskets and your halfcourt offense can most accurately be described as "throw the ball at the hoop, storm the offensive glass, repeat" - that works in the MWC, but that shit won't fly when you play teams with good frontcourts that limit your second chances. I think the first team that SDSU plays with a strong frontcourt that is able to limit the transition opportunities of the Aztecs will beat them.
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