Oregon will win if ... it gets up early. The last thing Ohio State needs is to try to mount any sort of a comeback by throwing the ball. The Oregon secondary is a strength, the Buckeye passing game finished last in the Big Ten and 106th in the nation, and with a lead, the Duck attack can do what it does best and run the ball to grind out the game. But Oregon can?t be afraid to get the passing game going early on to mix things up. Ohio State will have been drilled for the last month to be disciplined and tough against the run, but Masoli has to open up the attack to go after the good, but not elite OSU corners. Purdue was able to beat the Buckeyes with 281 passing yards from Joey Elliott, USC came up with the win after Matt Barkley got hot on the key late drive, and everyone else struggled to consistently produce through the air. Navy showed that a team cam both run and throw effectively, with Ricky Dobbs completing 9-of-13 passes for 156 yards and two touchdowns with an interception. Masoli has to be just as effective.
Ohio State will win if ... the running game cranks out big yards and the team wins the turnover battle. Ohio State?s biggest advantage is its bulk and its toughness. Oregon can be shoved around, and Ohio State will certainly try by barreling the ball with both Dan Herron and Brandon Saine, and it needs to control the clock and keep Oregon?s O off the field. In OSU?s two losses, it ran for 88 yards against USC and 66 against Purdue. It ran for 97 yards in the win over Wisconsin, but that?s because the offense never had the ball. Against everyone else, OSU ran for 150 yards or more and in the last five games, including against Penn State and Iowa, the offense ran for 228 yards or more in each game with 11 touchdowns. The bigger key for a team without a lot of offensive firepower will be the turnovers. OSU gave it away five times in the loss to Purdue and just 12 times the rest of the year on its way to finishing fourth in the nation in turnover margin. Oregon is almost always good for two turnovers a game, and OSU has to take advantage of every mistake.
What will happen: By all logic and reason, Oregon should win this game. The offense is better, Pryor is hurt, and OSU doesn?t have a whole bunch of firepower, but don?t diminish just how good Jim Tressel and his staff are when it comes to preparing for the big games. Again, Oregon isn?t USC of the past few seasons and it?s not a national-title caliber superpower. This is a great Duck team, but it?s not an elite one, and the Buckeye defense, especially if the front four is as inspired like it was against Wisconsin can take over a game. Either this will be an Oregon blowout with an impressive performance that will launch a top five 2010 preseason ranking, or it?ll be a close, tight, Tressel Ball kind of a game with the Buckeyes coming up with the win. Ohio State wins on a late field goal.
CFN Prediction: Ohio State 26 ? Oregon 24 ... Line: Oregon -4