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Handicapping the Heisman
By
Richard Cirminiello
Posted Dec 4, 2006
You know the drama that gripped the country for about 18 hours this weekend as everyone wondered whether Florida or Michigan would face Ohio State in the National Championship game? Yeah, you?re not going to get anything remotely like that this week as the Heisman Trophy gets set to name its 72nd recipient.
Troy Smith had this award in the vault weeks ago, leaving his margin of victory and who?d accompany him to New York City as the only areas for serious debate between now and Saturday night. Still, the lack of suspense is no reason to poo-poo Smith?s crowning moment of a brilliant and improbable college career. When he?s at that podium this weekend, just keep in mind that this is a player that wasn?t even the highest-rated quarterback in Ohio State?s class of 2002. In fact, he wasn?t even labeled a quarterback at that time, wearing the ?athlete? tag instead. It wasn?t until 2004, when starter Justin Zwick was injured, that Smith got his chance to shine, never dimming since. Yeah, there?ll be no drama when the envelope is unsealed on Saturday, but that can?t detract from Smith, who?s undergone a rather dramatic transformation in Columbus over the last two years.
The following ranking is not a personal opinion, rather a handicapping of how the contenders would fare if a vote was taken today.
1.
QB Troy Smith, Ohio State ? When the smoke clears this weekend on another Heisman race, consistency will be cited as the hallmark of Smith?s senior season. Once he took the lead after Ohio State toppled Texas in week two, he never gave voters a reason to stray from his side. Not once. With each Buckeye win and each crisp, mistake-free performance, the gap between No. 10 and the rest of the field seemed to widen.
Last Week: Idle
2006 Season: 199-of-297 for 2,507 yards, 30 TDs and 5 INTs ? 62 carries for 233 yards and 1 TD
Defining Moment:: Leading the Buckeyes to a third straight win over Michigan, which sealed a perfect season and a spot in the National Championship game.
2.
QB Brady Quinn, Notre Dame ? Give Quinn credit for battling back after a Sept. 16 Michigan game that many felt had already sealed his Heisman fate. He got back in position to contend for the award, but Smith never buckled and Quinn was just average against USC in his last ditch effort to increase his base of support.
Last Week: Idle
2006 Season: 274-of-432 for 3,278 yards, 35 TDs and 5 INTs ? 2 rushing TDs
Defining Moment:: Leading the Irish back from a 16-point fourth quarter deficit against Michigan State just a week after losing badly to Michigan.
3.
RB Darren McFadden, Arkansas ? McFadden probably could have vaulted Quinn with a monster game against Florida, but a Hog loss and a pedestrian 73 yards on the ground will keep him from ascending beyond No. 3. A rebound game in the Capital One Bowl will solidify his position as the front-runner heading into the 2007 season.
Last Week: 21 carries for 73 yards ? 1-of-3 for 2 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT (Florida)
2006 Season: 265 carries for 1,558 yards and 14 TDs ? 6-of-8 for 72 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT ? 1 TD catch ? 1 kick return TD
Defining Moment:: Running for 181 yards and two scores and adding a touchdown pass in a 31-14 rout of Tennessee.
4.
RB Mike Hart, Michigan - Hart developed enough of a following as the offensive MVP for one of the nation?s three best teams to be a strong contender to return to his Empire State roots in two weeks. He probably can peak as high as No. 3 in the vote, but is unlikely to drop any lower than fifth place. An early end to the regular season and no league title game spoils some of the momentum for Big Ten candidates.
Last Week: Idle
2006 Season: 301 carries for 1,515 and 14 TDs ? 15 catches for 127 yards
Defining Moment:: Keeping Michigan in its finale with Ohio State by running for 142 yards and three touchdowns.
5.
RB Steve Slaton, West Virginia ? Forgettable games against Louisville and South Florida will keep Slaton from seriously contending for the award, however, his total body of work should be enough for a top 5 finish. He finished the regular season third nationally in rushing and second in all-purpose running, putting up big numbers in nationally televised games.
Last Week: 23 carries for 112 yards and 2 TDs (Rutgers)
2006 Season: 245 carries for 1,733 yards and 16 TDs ? 25 catches for 340 yards and 2 TDs
Defining Moment:: Blowing up Pittsburgh for 345 total yards and four scores in a primetime Thursday night affair.
6.
QB Colt Brennan, Hawaii ?To ascend much higher, Brennan needed to cap a Warrior win over Oregon State by breaking David Klingler?s single-season record for touchdown passes. Neither happened in a less than stellar performance, making an invite to the awards ceremony in New York City doubtful.
Last Week: 37-of-50 for 401 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs ? 1 rushing TD (Oregon State)
2006 Season: 373-of-517 for 4,990 yards, 53 TDs and 11 INTs ? 79 carries for 351 yards and 5 TDs
Defining Moment:: Throwing three touchdown passes in the fourth quarter, rallying Hawaii to a 42-35 win over Purdue.
7.
RB Ray Rice, Rutgers ? Rice played well against West Virginia, as he?s done all year, but a Rutgers loss with a Big East title and a berth in the Orange Bowl on the line may have stunted his momentum at a most inopportune time. Getting named a Maxwell Award finalist is an indication he likely won?t fall any lower than here.
Last Week: 25 carries for 129 yards and 2 TDs (West Virginia)
2006 Season: 311 carries for 1,624 yards and 19 TDs
Defining Moment:: Running for a career-high 225 yards and a touchdown in a pivotal upset of Pittsburgh.
8.
RB Ian Johnson, Boise State ? Western region voters looking for someone to champion have a very viable option in Johnson, who led the country in scoring on a team that?s headed to the Fiesta Bowl. He didn?t just beef up on WAC defenses, saving his most prolific effort of the year for No. 25 Oregon State of the Pac-10.
Last Week: Idle
2006 Season: 253 carries for 1,613 yards and 24 TDs
Defining Moment:: Searing Oregon State for five touchdowns and 240 yards in front of a national TV audience.
9.
QB John Beck, BYU ? Beck takes the place of West Virginia?s Pat White, who was physically unable to play against Rutgers Saturday night. Beck was brilliant all year leading the Cougars to a sweep of the Mountain West, but may have sealed a spot in the top 10 when he scrambled from pressure and found TE Jonny Harline to beat Utah on the final play of the game two weeks ago.
Last Week: Idle
2006 Season: 261-of-371 for 3,510 yards, 30 TDs and 6 INTs ? 5 rushing TDs
Defining Moment:: Beating rival Utah on with a miraculous 11-yard touchdown flip with no time left on the clock.
10.
WR Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech ? There are enough savvy voters that recognize Johnson is one of the best all-around players in America to land the junior in the top 10. Those same voters realize that when Johnson had poor numbers in a game, it had more to do with the quarterback throwing him the ball than a cornerback that shut him down.
Last Week: 8 catches for 117 yards (Wake Forest)
2006 Season: 67 catches for 1,016 yards and 13 TDs
Defining Moment:: Hauling in two touchdown receptions in the Sept. 30 upset of Virginia Tech.
Also Getting Votes .?. QB Chris Leak (Florida), WR Ted Ginn (Ohio State), WR Dwayne Jarrett (USC), QB Zac Taylor (Nebraska), QB Pat White (West Virginia), QB JaMarcus Russell (LSU), QB John David Booty (USC), QB Chad Henne (Michigan), RB Marshawn Lynch (Cal), RB P.J. Hill (Wisconsin), RB Garrett Wolfe (Northern Illinois)