2006 BCS, polls, Bowl Predictions and computer ratings

[osugrad21]

ESPN

The Power 16

What a difference a week makes. Seven days ago, Auburn was No. 2 in the Power 16, while Florida was No. 5. But then the Gators swamped LSU and Arkansas spanked Auburn on Saturday, dropping Auburn all the way to No. 11. Florida moved up to No. 2, but the Gators have to share it with Michigan, which moved up from No. 4.

Ohio State is still a unanimous No. 1. USC slipped to fourth and West Virginia rounds out the top five. Georgia, Oklahoma and Oregon dropped out of the Power 16, opening the door for Arkansas, Cal and Missouri to move into the rankings.

1Ohio State (16)6-0256This Saturday's trip to East Lansing once looked like a dangerous stop. Now? Not so much.

2Florida6-0227The Gators' one-two QB punch of Chris Leak and Tim Tebow KO'd LSU. If they do the same to Auburn, make Florida the No. 1 contender.

2Michigan6-0227Why is this year's edition of the Maize and Blue different? The Wolverines rank first in the nation in rushing defense, allowing only 40.3 yards per game.


4USC5-0209The Trojans are still the class of the Pac-10, but Washington offered more proof that the gap is closing


.

5West Virginia5-0191Not even 11 penalties and sloppy play could stop the Mountaineers from mauling Mississippi State.

6Texas5-1178Remember when soft and Texas were synonymous? Times have changed. Just ask the Sooners.

7Louisville5-0161Cincinnati and at Syracuse are the only hurdles between the Cardinals and their showdown with West Virgina.

8Tennessee5-1144Good time for a bye week for the Vols, who must be tired after scoring 51 between the hedges.

9California5-1105Remember the Bears? They're back in the Power 16 after doing to the Ducks what the Vols did to them in Week 1

10Notre Dame5-1103The Irish gained a season-high 204 rushing yards against Stanford. Of course, the Cardinal are ranked last in the nation in rushing defense


.

11Auburn5-194Can the Tigers come Full Circle and beat the Gators after losing to Arkansas? ESPN will have all the angles covered on Saturday at 7:45 ET


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12Clemson5-187If not for Gaines Adams' game-changing fumble return, the folks in Clemson would be planning a wake this week


.

13Missouri6-043With a trip to Kyle Field looming, the Tigers shouldn't spend too much time celebrating their first 6-0 start since 1973.

14Georgia Tech5-140After surviving Maryland's scare, the Jackets have two weeks to prepare for Clemson


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15Arkansas5-132After roasting Auburn, the Razorbacks are in control in the SEC West. Anyone see that one coming?

15LSU4-232Life in the SEC is tough. After road trips to Jordan-Hare Stadium and The Swamp, the Tigers are 1-2 in the SEC.


Others receiving votes: Iowa 19, Georgia 10, Nebraska 9, Boise State 5 and Oregon 4.

 

[osugrad21]

CPD

Unbeaten Buckeyes possibly passable

Ohio State could win them all, not have chance to win it all
Wednesday, October 11, 2006Doug Lesmerises
Plain Dealer Reporter
Columbus -- So maybe poll voters will warm to Florida if the Gators survive the SEC. Maybe the computers will continue to show love to Southern Cal if the Trojans eventually add Notre Dame to previous nonconference wins over Arkansas and Nebraska.
With 6-0 Ohio State ready to start the second half of its season at Michigan State on Saturday, is there any reason to worry that an undefeated Ohio State team could be left out of the national title game, as undefeated Auburn was in 2004?
"It would be almost impossible for two teams to pass them," said BCS analyst Jerry Palm, who runs the Web site www.collegebcs.com. "I'd be shocked if the Ohio State-Michigan winner does not make it to the national championship, especially if it's Ohio State."
That's assuming both those teams enter their Nov. 18 matchup at 11-0. In the meantime, the best thing for Buckeyes fans to do, like it or not, is to root for both Michigan and Notre Dame the rest of the season, because the success of the Wolverines and Fighting Irish would help Ohio State with the computers. As an opponent, Ohio State should want Michigan as strong as possible, and as an opponent of an opponent (Notre Dame lost to Michigan), the Irish influence the Buckeyes as well. The first BCS standings will be released on Sunday.
If you haven't closely followed the Bowl Championship Series lately, you'll be happy to know a three-year-old change to the calculations is helping Ohio State's cause.
Starting with the 2004 season, the power of the human polls increased, with the total points of the polls factored into the BCS standings, not just the overall ranking.
So Ohio State is more than just No. 1. The Buckeyes' current dominance - with a combined 175 of 179 first-place votes in the coaches poll and Harris Interactive poll - carries a lot of weight. Each human poll counts for one-third of the BCS standings, while six computer polls combine for the other third.
"They have about as big a lead as you can have," Palm said. "They'd have to be about fifth in the computer polls to get passed, and that's just not going to happen."
At the moment, the Buckeyes would not be leading the cumulative computer ratings, five of which have released standings. The Buckeyes are first in one, second in three of them and third in another. USC is on top in four computer lists, and the computers will continue to love the Trojans as long as Arkansas and Nebraska roll along in the rankings, their only losses coming to USC.
This is where style points come in. Asked about the idea of winning impressively after a victory over Penn State three games ago that was tighter than the 28-6 score, Ohio State coach Jim Tressel dismissed the notion.

"I've never been accused of style," Tressel said. "I don't subscribe to the style-points thing. I know when you get into your conference, there's nothing stylish about it, they're battles."
But the Buckeyes don't have a very daunting schedule before the Michigan game, which may be reflected in more than the computer ratings. If the Buckeyes lose their dominating lead in the polls, or even fall out of the top spot in one poll, that's when the computers will matter much more, and that's probably not what Ohio State wants.
"If there's no consensus, you can let the computers decide," Palm said. "If there's a consensus, the computers are out of it, and that's where Ohio State is right now. But that can change. They're only a three-point win over Northwestern from that changing."
The computers no longer factor in victory margin, something with which Sagarin, the creator of one of the computer rankings used by the BCS, doesn't agree. In fact, his system - which does factor in scores - has Ohio State on top.
"They forbid us to use scores, but people look at scores," Sagarin said. "I remember a [conference] commissioner was asked about that, and he said human beings understand the nuance of scores, and computers don't understand the nuance of scores. That was the first time I heard the word 'nuance' used about college football."
So their fate with the computers is out of the Buckeyes' hands. But as long as USC and Florida haven't lost, looking good in victory - not just winning - will help the Buckeyes stay on top with the voters. And that's what they need to get where they want to go.

 

[ShakerBuck]

the bullshit calls that cost Oklahoma the game against Oregon will end up costing us BCS points.

Makes Oregon a higher quality oponent for USC, and slightly reduces the value of our win over Texas.

USC is already ahead of us in 4 of the 5 computer polls.

..as long as we take care of business though it shouldn't matter

 

[buckeyeboy]

In the meantime, the best thing for Buckeyes fans to do, like it or not, is to root for both Michigan and Notre Dame the rest of the season, because the success of the Wolverines and Fighting Irish would help Ohio State with the computers. As an opponent, Ohio State should want Michigan as strong as possible, and as an opponent of an opponent (Notre Dame lost to Michigan), the Irish influence the Buckeyes as well. The first BCS standings will be released on Sunday.

But to the extent that we should be worried about USC being one of the teams that could pass us according to this article, doesn't it make more sense to root for them to lose since they are an opponent of USC? It seems that an opponent of an opponent has less of an impact on a team's BCS ranking than does a team's opponent.

 

[DaddyBigBucks]

1

This is the first time this season that I will be asserting what follows. I sincerely hope that I will repeat myself many times, because that would mean the Buckeyes have continued to win.

*ahem*

Wasn't there enough hand-wringing in 2002? Weren't there enough people on a message board that shall remain nameless that were upset at Tressel, the pollsters, the computer programmers and the media for screwing us out of a NC berth that we WEREN'T screwed out of? Didn't enough of Buckeye Nation completely fail to relish that glorious season?

This is a fantastic time to be a Buckeye. Let's enjoy it people.

...............

When I made this point in that other hideous place during 2002, people reminded me ad nauseum that "just because we're winning doesn't mean we shouldn't discuss what could be done better..." blah blah flippity frickin blah.

Hey, it's a message board. I get it. Some of you are going to complain because that's what you do. Fine.

Those of us who choose to enjoy the ENTIRE season instead of just the glorious ending will be glad to welcome you to the party when you come to join us.

And if there is a stumble along the way, so be it. These are OUR BUCKEYES. This edition is giving their all for the Scarlet & Grey. God Bless Them no matter what happens.

I'm going to enjoy every second of this, all the way to Glendale.

 

[ShakerBuck]

Interesting Fact:

Bucks have a chance to do something that has never been done before...

win 3 #1 vs #2 matchups in the same year. (assuming we take care of business and scUM is wins out until "the game" and is ranked #2 at the time

#1 tOSU over #2 UT
#1 tOSU over #2 scUM
#1 tOSU over BCS #2 in National championship game

 

[Bucks21]

Interesting Fact:

Bucks have a chance to do something that has never been done before...

win 3 #1 vs #2 matchups in the same year. (assuming we take care of business and scUM is wins out until "the game" and is ranked #2 at the time

#1 tOSU over #2 UT
#1 tOSU over #2 UT
#1 tOSU over BCS #2 in National championship game

gonna need to edit your post to say tOSU over #2UM plus this has been discussed

 

[methomps]

? ? Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame at USC, Nov. 11, 18 and 25: The Trojans' tripleheader may decide a lot.

 

[methomps]

But to the extent that we should be worried about USC being one of the teams that could pass us according to this article, doesn't it make more sense to root for them to lose since they are an opponent of USC? It seems that an opponent of an opponent has less of an impact on a team's BCS ranking than does a team's opponent.

To the extent that USC remains in contention, buckeyeboy is correct.

 

[BB73]

To the extent that USC remains in contention, buckeyeboy is correct.

And if USC loses to Cal, that Oregon won over Oklahoma will help Cal versus Texas in a comparison of 1-loss teams.

 

[pianobuck46]

This is the first time this season that I will be asserting what follows. I sincerely hope that I will repeat myself many times, because that would mean the Buckeyes have continued to win.

*ahem*

Wasn't there enough hand-wringing in 2002? Weren't there enough people on a message board that shall remain nameless that were upset at Tressel, the pollsters, the computer programmers and the media for screwing us out of a NC berth that we WEREN'T screwed out of? Didn't enough of Buckeye Nation completely fail to relish that glorious season?

This is a fantastic time to be a Buckeye. Let's enjoy it people.

...............

When I made this point in that other hideous place during 2002, people reminded me ad nauseum that "just because we're winning doesn't mean we shouldn't discuss what could be done better..." blah blah flippity frickin blah.

Hey, it's a message board. I get it. Some of you are going to complain because that's what you do. Fine.

Those of us who choose to enjoy the ENTIRE season instead of just the glorious ending will be glad to welcome you to the party when you come to join us.

And if there is a stumble along the way, so be it. These are OUR BUCKEYES. This edition is giving their all for the Scarlet & Grey. God Bless Them no matter what happens.

I'm going to enjoy every second of this, all the way to Glendale.

That's as eloquent an endorsement of the Bucks as I've seen in a long time. Bravo and kudos!!

I was in Columbus last weekend and was lucky enough to go to the game. I was in C-Deck in the closed end, right above Teddy Ginn when he caught that 57-yarder. Wouldn't have been anyplace else--no way.

Curiously, after the game, I listened to the call-in shows (Earle Bruce as well as "1460 The Fan"), and was amazed at the quarter back coaches. They thought the game was lackluster, a so-so win, "they'd better play better than that against Michigan" , blah, blah, blah. I wonder how many times they've had a chance to see that great a team in person? They're plenty good on TV, but there's nothing like seeing them up-close-and personal, especially when they play that well.

I'm with you, friend--all the way to Glendale. Would that the Buckeyes had a million fans like you.


:gobucks3: :osu2: :gobucks4:

 

[Mr.FuzzyPants]

BCS Computer Rankings

I was just watching Sportscenter and it revealed the first BCS Computer rankings. I was shocked to see that it had USC ahead of Ohio State in the number 1 spot. Is this old news to everyone or what? I just simply could not believe it.

 

[lloydman]

I was just watching Sportscenter and it revealed the first BCS Computer rankings. I was shocked to see that it had USC ahead of Ohio State in the number 1 spot. Is this old news to everyone or what? I just simply could not believe it.

I don't believe it. 2 other sources have OSU 1 and USC 2. We will see which one is the most accurate at their projections.

http://grjash.netfirms.com/bcs/bcs_rankings.html

[B]rank    team           A&H       B     C     M       S     Cmptrs   H Pts    Harris    C Pts  Coaches      BCS[/B]
 
 1    Ohio St          2     1     2     3     2    0.96    2848    0.9993    1574    0.9994    0.9862
 2    USC              1     2     1     1     1    1.00    2621    0.9196    1461    0.9276    0.9491
 3    Florida             3     4     3     2     3    0.92    2599    0.9119    1412    0.8965    0.9095
 4    Michigan     4     3     4     4     4    0.88    2557    0.8972    1358    0.8622    0.8798
 5    Louisville         5    10     9    12    20    0.63    2181    0.7653    1207    0.7663    0.7194
 6    Notre Dame     6     8     5     7     7    0.77    1917    0.6726    1044    0.6629    0.7029
 7    Tennessee     8    15     8     6     6    0.75    1959    0.6874    1031    0.6546    0.6962
 8    Texas             18     6    16    14    10    0.51    2246    0.7881    1240    0.7873    0.6940
 9    West Virginia    14     5    15    24    28    0.33    2434    0.8540    1398    0.8876    0.6917
10    Auburn             12    13    10     9     8    0.63    1728    0.6063    0958    0.6083    0.6137

http://www.tellshowbcs.com/

                                 Comp      Coach's           Harris           BSC    
     Team                 W  L    [URL="http://www.tellshowbcs.com/CP.html"][COLOR=#0000ff]Ave[/COLOR][/URL]  Rank  Pts    BCS  Rank  Pts    BCS   Points 
  1  [URL="http://www.tellshowbcs.com/teams/osu.html"][COLOR=#0000ff]Ohio State[/COLOR][/URL]           6  0   0.96    1  1574  0.999    1  2848  0.999   0.9862
  2  [URL="http://www.tellshowbcs.com/teams/usc.html"][COLOR=#0000ff]Southern Cal[/COLOR][/URL]         5  0   1.00    2  1461  0.928    2  2621  0.920   0.9491
  3  [URL="http://www.tellshowbcs.com/teams/fl.html"][COLOR=#0000ff]Florida[/COLOR][/URL]              6  0   0.92    3  1412  0.897    3  2599  0.912   0.9095
  4  [URL="http://www.tellshowbcs.com/teams/mich.html"][COLOR=#0000ff]Michigan[/COLOR][/URL]             6  0   0.88    5  1358  0.862    4  2557  0.897   0.8798
  5  [URL="http://www.tellshowbcs.com/teams/lou.html"][COLOR=#0000ff]Louisville[/COLOR][/URL]           5  0   0.63    7  1207  0.766    7  2181  0.765   0.7205
  6  [URL="http://www.tellshowbcs.com/teams/nd.html"][COLOR=#0000ff]Notre Dame[/COLOR][/URL]           5  1   0.77    8  1044  0.663    9  1917  0.673   0.7018
  7  [URL="http://www.tellshowbcs.com/teams/ten.html"][COLOR=#0000ff]Tennessee[/COLOR][/URL]            5  1   0.75    9  1031  0.655    8  1959  0.687   0.6973
  8  [URL="http://www.tellshowbcs.com/teams/texas.html"][COLOR=#0000ff]Texas[/COLOR][/URL]                5  1   0.51    6  1240  0.787    6  2246  0.788   0.6951
  9  [URL="http://www.tellshowbcs.com/teams/wv.html"][COLOR=#0000ff]West Virginia[/COLOR][/URL]        5  0   0.33    4  1398  0.888    5  2434  0.854   0.6906
 10  [URL="http://www.tellshowbcs.com/teams/auburn.html"][COLOR=#0000ff]Auburn[/COLOR][/URL]               5  1   0.63   10   958  0.608   10  1728  0.606   0.6149

 

[NOTREDAMECHIEF]

ND at 8?? WTF! That is funny!

 

[TRON]

All of this does not matter...If we win out, we are gonna be the #1 team in the BCS