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2006 BCS, polls, Bowl Predictions and computer ratings

Latest AP Poll

Is now out

RANK TEAM RECORD PTS LAST
1 Ohio St. (63) 6-0 1623 1
2 Florida 6-0 1516 5
3 Southern Cal 5-0 1451 3
4 Michigan 6-0 1429 6
5 West Virginia (2) 5-0 1416 4
6 Texas 5-1 1294 7
7 Louisville 5-0 1247 8
8 Tennessee 5-1 1159 13
9 Notre Dame 5-1 1068 12
10 California 5-1 1017 16
11 Auburn 5-1 943 2
12 Clemson 5-1 876 15
13 Georgia Tech 5-1 739 18
14 LSU 4-2 693 9
15 Iowa 5-1 661 19
16 Georgia 5-1 615 10
17 Arkansas 4-1 482 NR
18 Oregon 4-1 474 11
19 Missouri 6-0 469 23
20 Boise St. 6-0 449 20
21 Nebraska 5-1 431 22
22 Virginia Tech 4-1 360 21
23 Oklahoma 3-2 271 14
24 Rutgers 5-0 194 24
25 Wisconsin 5-1 86 NR
The drop for Auburn seems more realistic in this poll and Michigan at #4 solid seems right.
In the interest of civil discussion I am going to withold comment on the two 1st place votes accorded W. Va.

For those who want to play "Spot the Loony" though

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/external/onlinenews.ap.org/collegefootball_rankings/voters.php
 
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-ND back in the Top 10. I'll say it for the 1,000,001 time...the media bias for them is absolutely disgusting. Oh well, another prime time ass beating awaits if they draw Texas(or any top 10 team for that matter) in a BCS Bowl game.

-My midseason SWAG at what will happen in the NC race:

If I had to bet right now and wanted to get the odds in my favor as much as possible I'd say the winner of The Game and the L'ville/WVU game will be the teams in Arizona. MSU and PSU will have a lot to say about The Game being played by 2 undefeateds but, lets assume we both hold serve.

SEC will knock each other off
USC will lose to Cal and beat ND

If USC runs the table they will edge the BE champ for the #2 spot and you could see the media pitch a 1 loss ND vs an undefeated WVU/UL game as a possible NC game. Actually it would be like a pillow fight between Sigfried and Roy but the media has to create something to keep people reading so.... Personally my interest in a ND Bowl game this year is if ND actually wins the damn thing can the team carry Charlie off on their shoulders? I'm taking the under and saying no fucking way.

I know a lot of football left to be played...I'm just saying IF I had to bet right now I'm going with OSU vs WVU for the NC.
 
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Link



Sunday 7: A lot of good candidates for No. 2 right now
257.jpg
Oct. 8, 2006
By Dennis Dodd
CBS SportsLine.com Senior Writer
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica]

[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Seven things we learned on Sunday. ... [/FONT]
img9714453.jpg
Everyone is competing for the spot behind the Buckeyes in the BCS. (Getty Images) [FONT=Arial, Helvetica] The No. 2 team in the nation is ...: The Doyel likes Michigan, but what does he know? [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] No. 1 Ohio State keeps perking along. Well, unless you discount Bowling Green rising up and forcing Troy Smith into three incompletions (in 20 attempts). [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] The question, then, at this stage is who is No. 2? [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Is it Florida? Is it USC? Is it West Virginia? Heck, is it Tennessee? [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Are six questions in the first four paragraphs too many? [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] If it were Dec. 2, this argument would be a lot more meaningful. The Scare at Jordan-Hare (Arkansas 27, Auburn 10) shuffled things quite a bit at the top of the polls. But what do the polls really mean at his point? We're a week away from the first BCS standings. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] You remember, the really sensible way to decide things. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Houston Nutt is the SEC coach of the year: Maybe national coach of the year. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] To this point. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Aside from an opening night blowout loss to USC, Nutt has guided what could have been a dysfunctional program to a 4-1 record. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Dodd's Power Poll
1. Ohio State 2. Florida 3. West Virginia 4. Texas 5. USC 6. Michigan 7. Louisville 8. Tennessee 9. Auburn 10. Notre Dame 11. Missouri 12. Cal 13. Oregon 14. Clemson 15. Nebraska 16. Georgia 17. LSU 18. Boise State 19. Georgia Tech 20. Arkansas 21. Iowa 22. Virginia Tech 23. Rutgers 24. Wisconsin 25. Oklahoma
[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] It was simple against Auburn. The big Hogs on the offensive line lined up and whipped the Tigers. Darren McFadden sliced through the Tigers for 145 yards. Mitch Mustain threw only 10 times. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Really, nothing has changed in the SEC. You've got to be able to run the ball and play defense. Arkansas did it the best Saturday. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] NCAA stats lie! They lie, I tell you: The stat geeks in Indianapolis told us last week that Georgia was No. 1 in scoring defense. They had all kinds of fancy numbers and such to back it up, too. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Then Tennessee snapped the ball. And scored. And scored again. Quarterback Erik Ainge (two passing touchdowns, one rushing) tripled the previous average output against Georgia himself. The last time someone was this successful in Georgia, Jimmy Carter was running for president. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] For only the second time, a team hung half a hundred on the Dawgs (51) in Athens. Tennessee joined Steve Spurrier and the Gators in that exclusive club, so Dawgs everywhere had to feel good about Saturday. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] "I can't say enough about the offensive line," Ainge said. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] We can't say enough about how much a fraud Georgia's D appears to be. It fell from No. 1 to No. 17 in scoring defense. How's that for cypherin'? [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] A Heisman candidacy ended: When Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson let that Paul Thompson lateral go Saturday in Dallas, that might have done it for a lot of Heisman voters. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Passing from his own 17 in the fourth quarter of the Red River Shootout, OU's quarterback threw a screen pass to Peterson at the 12. The ball sailed over the back's head and fell incomplete. Or so he thought. Texas' Aaron Ross scooped up the ball and ran in for the last touchdown in a 28-10 victory. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Officials on the field ruled it a lateral. A review upheld the call. Here's the thing: It's one thing to get beat. It's another not to hustle. All we ask from our Heisman candidates is accountability. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Ross kept going, never hearing a whistle while Peterson basically stood there. There is no excuse, especially after being shown up by a rival. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] This is what you expect from a league that cashes $90 million checks and poaches teams: At least one complete program. Clemson might be the class of the All About Cash Conference after beating Wake Forest 27-17. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Both coach Tommy Bowden and offensive coordinator Rob Spence have had to remake their philosophies. Clemson is a power-running team that employs a short-passing game. Oh, and the Tigers play a little defense too. End Gaines Adams led the comeback by returning a muffed field goal snap 66 yards for a score in the fourth quarter. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] "I would very much say if we continue to do well, that could very well be the (signature) play (of the season)," Bowden said. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] You live by the kick, you die by the kick. Clemson is probably still kicking itself for losing to Boston College. How? A blocked extra point, of course. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Wait, there might be two complete teams in the ACC: Georgia Tech (5-1) has its first five-game winning streak in six years. It has its first 3-0 ACC start in eight years. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Saturday's 27-23 victory over Maryland was typical of a game the Jackets used to lose. Tech trailed most of the game before rallying. Maryland moved the ball to the Jackets 7 in the waning moments. Reserve defensive end Michael Johnson then broke through on consecutive plays to get sacks. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Game over. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Only an admirable four-point loss to Notre Dame in the opener is the difference in Georgia Tech working on an undefeated season. Receiver Calvin Johnson (10 catches, 133 yards) is a stone lock to be an All-American. Linebacker Philip Wheeler might be. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] The league's two best teams get it on Oct. 21 at Clemson. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Your honor, I'm going to have to recuse myself: Not! What, Missouri grad, can't write about Missouri team? We're all from somewhere. Fan Boy here is merely pimping a football team the Journalism School can finally be proud of. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] In case you didn't catch it, Mi-zoo-rah pounded Texas Tech 38-21 in Lubbock. The Tigers are 6-0, one of the nine unbeatens left. Ready, aim, noses in the air, alums. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] I'm talking to you, Brad Pitt and Sheryl Crow. Bear with us while we gush: This is the Tigers' best start since 1973, when Al Onofrio was on the headphones. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Uncle Al was famous for beating Nebraska, then, like, losing to Kansas in the same season -- which actually happened 33 years ago. Or shutting out Arizona State one week and giving up 59 to Wisconsin the next (1974). [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] Not to get ahead ourselves -- which Missouri fans tend to do -- but we should be 9-0 going to Nebraska on Nov. 4. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] What the J-School has produced, let no man put asunder. Whenever a ball is kicked off somewhere in America, we are there in force pounding a keyboard and snarfing up a free lunch. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica] The next meeting of the Press Box Pinkels convenes in Lincoln. [/FONT]
 
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Link

The whole picture at halftime

October 9, 2006
It was another rocking, shocking weekend in college football as the national picture begins to sort itself out. By winning 27-10 at then-No. 2 Auburn -- the first top-10 team to lose to an unranked team this season -- Arkansas proved Tigers coach Tommy Tuberville's point about how tough it is for a Southeastern Conference team to win a national title. In other weekend highlights, Florida and its quarterback tandem scored a big-time 23-10 victory over LSU; Tennessee rallied to come away with an impressive 51-33 victory at Georgia; and Cal showed a lot of gears in throttling Oregon 45-24.
At the very top, though, nothing changed. Despite plugging in nine new starters on defense, Ohio State is in position to win its second national championship in six years.
Halfway through another tumultuous season in the best sport that doesn't know how to crown a champion, it's time to take a look at what has happened -- and what's in store for the rest of the season:

STILL THE ONE: Ohio State, which began the season No. 1, is giving every indication it will finish the season that way. The Buckeyes look stronger than the squad that won the 2002 national championship. Then again, the Miami team that Ohio State beat for the 2002 title looked unstoppable, too.

WHO'S NO. 2? Based on what it has done, Florida gets the nod over USC. The Gators have impressive victories at Tennessee and against LSU. But before securing a ticket to the Bowl Championship Series title game, they'll have to deal with Auburn and Georgia in their next two games, not to mention the season finale against Florida State and the SEC championship game. The young Trojans, meanwhile, have November home dates with Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame.

WHO'S LURKING? Michigan could make a strong case for the championship game with a victory Nov. 18 at Ohio State. The Big East also should have a strong candidate after West Virginia visits Louisville on Nov. 2. And there's a host of once-beatens, including Notre Dame and defending champion Texas, that could sneak in.
HEISMAN ON ICE? If Ohio State runs the table, senior quarterback Troy Smith can strike the pose. Nobody's even close. And considering that the Buckeyes -- who were awfully sharp during a rugged September schedule -- don't play a team with a winning record until Michigan comes to Columbus, Smith is looking awfully good.

BACK, BACK, BACK: The Heisman remains a huge reach, but Northern Illinois senior Garrett Wolfe is running away with the national rushing title and is in position to be one of the finalists invited to New York. With 223.8 yards per game after getting 162 on Sunday night at Miami of Ohio, Wolfe has a monstrous lead on Rutgers' Ray Rice (161.2) and West Virginia's Steve Slaton (153.6).
TOUGHEST CONFERENCE: The Big Ten, Pac-10 and Big East have outstanding one-two punches. For week-after-week quality showdowns, though, the SEC stands alone. Florida, Tennessee, Auburn, LSU and Georgia are armed, and Arkansas, Alabama and South Carolina are dangerous.

BIGGEST FLOPS: Perennial top-10 heavyweights Miami and Florida State are major disappointments. This week marks the first time in 24 years that neither is ranked. The Hurricanes were embarrassed 31-7 at Louisville after losing their home opener to the Seminoles. FSU has lost at home to Clemson and at N.C. State.
Closer to home, Michigan State -- despite having an accomplished quarterback and a decent supporting cast -- could use a heart transplant after blowing a big fourth-quarter lead against Notre Dame and hanging its head vs. Illinois.

WORST MELTDOWN, PART ONE: The replay official had ample opportunity to make sure Oklahoma didn't get jobbed at Oregon. He blew an onside-kick call, though, allowing the Ducks to score two touchdowns in the final 72 seconds of a wild 34-33 victory.

WORST MELTDOWN, PART TWO: Oklahoma fans acted as if the national championship had been stolen, rather than an early-season nonconference game.

THE BEST THAT'S YET TO COME:
? ? Northern Illinois at Iowa, Oct.28: Wolfe gets a chance to strut his stuff on a big stage.
? ? West Virginia at Louisville, Nov. 2: The Big East championship game comes a month early.
? ? Michigan at Ohio State, Nov. 18: It could be as big as it gets.
? ? Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame at USC, Nov. 11, 18 and 25: The Trojans' tripleheader may decide a lot.
 
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At the very top, though, nothing changed. Despite plugging in nine new starters on defense, Ohio State is in position to win its second national championship in six years.

Wow, we replaced 9 starters on defense? Who knew?

Second NC in six years? Buy a calculator, dude.

HEISMAN ON ICE? If Ohio State runs the table, senior quarterback Troy Smith can strike the pose. Nobody's even close.

As long as Brady Quinn plays for Notre Lame, I won't be this confident about the voting.
One more huge scUM game ought to take care of it, though!
 
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CPD

Gators could snap up top ranking



Monday, October 09, 2006 Doug Lesmerises

Plain Dealer Reporter
Here is a quick six around the world of college football.

1. 12-0 and No. 2?
If Ohio State wins out, the Buckeyes will play for the national title. But could Ohio State get to Glendale, Ariz., not as No. 1 but No. 2? If Florida runs the table in the SEC, the Gators will have done it in the toughest conference in the country. Florida would be 13-0 with wins against five elite teams (Tennessee, LSU, Auburn, Georgia and the SEC championship game) and three good teams (Alabama, South Carolina and Florida State). Ohio State would be 12-0 with two elite wins (Texas and Michigan) and two good wins (Iowa and Penn State). http://www.buckeyeplanet.com/forum/

forum
This week, Florida jumped to No. 2 in the AP poll but for some reason remained No. 3 in the coaches poll and Harris Interactive poll behind a Southern Cal team that has tried to lose its past two games. You'd think the Gators would make a move if they beat Auburn and Georgia the next two weeks, and if that happens, you'd have to listen to a Florida argument for No. 1.
The good news for the Buckeyes is that the computer polls like them better than the Gators for now. Six computer rankings make up one-third of the BCS ratings that will come out for the first time after next weekend's games, with the coaches poll and Harris poll each worth one-third as well.
Two computer rankings are up to date, and both list USC first, followed by Ohio State and Florida. One ranking isn't out, and the other three as of last week had Ohio State first, with Florida fourth in two of them and seventh in the other.
It's not Ohio State's fault, but the Big Ten is down, and that won't help. Michigan State is no Auburn. Blame the Spartans.

2. But no Heisman in Gainesville
Even if Florida does go undefeated, quarterback Chris Leak won't win the Heisman. I was skeptical of Urban Meyer's rotating quarterbacks, but the 1-2 punch of Leak and freshman Tim Tebow is a big reason why the Gators beat LSU on Saturday. Leak threw for 155 yards, but Tebow, in 15 snaps at quarterback, threw for two touchdowns and ran for another.
It can't be easy for Leak personally, no matter how effective it is, so the senior deserves credit for giving way without a fuss. Gators fans threw out a "Leak for Heisman" chant, but it doesn't make sense. I'm not even considering the candidacy of a quarter back that's less than a full-timer. Leak will have to settle for that national title run and knowing he's staying quiet while his coach puts the team first.

3. Not all sunshine
Florida's up, but for the first time since the end of the 1982 season, both Miami and Florida State are unranked this week. Do you miss them? Didn't think so.
4. It won't be USC
I thought before the season that Cal would be the best team in the Pac-10 and immediately thought differently after the Golden Bears lost at Tennessee to open the season. But 5-1 Cal destroyed Oregon on Saturday, and when Cal visits USC on Nov. 18, there will be plenty of reasons to have confidence in the Bears again.
5. Hoosier freshman?
Besides Tebow, Arkansas freshman quarterback Mitch Mustain engineered an upset of Auburn, Texas's Colt McCoy beat Oklahoma and, last week, freshman Juice Williams led Illinois past Michigan State. Add to the list Indiana freshman quarterback Kellen Lewis, who led a 60-yard drive in the final 2:31 Saturday for a 34-32 comeback win at Illinois. Said Indiana coach Terry Hoeppner, whose team broke a 17-game road losing streak in conference games: "We ought to have some disciples now. We ought to have some believers now."

6. Eight and eight
There are eight undefeated teams left and eight winless teams left. The best shots at keeping a zero? The eventual winners of Michigan-Ohio State and West Virginia-Louisville and Boise State on the good side. On the other side, two major programs, Colorado and Stanford, could both be in some trouble.
 
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Dispatch

OHIO STATE NOTEBOOK
Computer rankings neglect Buckeyes
No. 1 team in coaches poll doesn?t rule entire formula
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
Tim May
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

While the Ohio State Buckeyes have almost all of the poll voters convinced they?re the No. 1 team in the country, they?ve got some work to do with several of the computer rankings used as part of the Bowl Championship Series formula.
The good news for the Buckeyes is the computer ratings make up just one-third of the formula, with the USA Today coaches poll and the Harris Interactive poll being the other two-thirds. In those votes, OSU is the overwhelming No. 1 this week, followed by Southern California and Florida.
But in the four computer rankings available yesterday ? six are used ? the Buckeyes were No. 1 only on the Richard Billingsley list. The top five in the rankings available were as follows:
? Billingsley: Ohio State, Southern Cal, Michigan, Florida and West Virginia.
? Kenneth R. Massey: Southern Cal, Florida, Ohio State, Michigan and Arkansas.
? Jeff Sagarin: Southern Cal, Ohio State, Florida, Michigan and Arkansas.
? Colley Matrix: Southern Cal, Ohio State, Florida, Michigan and Notre Dame.
This week?s ratings from the computer of Anderson and Hester (a k a, Seattle Times poll) weren?t out yet. Last week, OSU was No. 1, followed by USC. The ratings from Dr. Peter Wolfe won?t be released until next week, coinciding with the first official BCS rankings.
Freshman soothsayer

Considering how things went for Ray Small in the area of guarantees last week, it would be interesting to know what the Ohio State freshman receiver has in mind for Saturday at Michigan State.
He said he had been working hard for a while in his role as the understudy to Ted Ginn Jr., and that emboldened him to walk up to coach Jim Tressel during practice last week and make a promise.
"I just told Coach Tressel, ?You give me a chance, I?m going to get in this week,? " Small said.
By "in" he meant into the end zone, someplace he had not been as a collegian. So rolling out of the slot usually occupied by Ginn in the team?s Shot Ginn formation, Small caught a swing pass from Troy Smith, warded off one defender and completed an 11-yard scoring play in the fourth quarter of the 35-7 win over Bowling Green.
"He?s a soothsayer," Tressel said.
Small, who like Ginn is from Cleveland Glenville, said he?s just "one of the players trying to making a contribution to this team. That?s all."
Reps die hard

If you think of "three yards and a cloud of dust" when you think about the Ohio State offense, then think again. OSU is third in the Big Ten in passing (235.17-yard average) and 10 th of 11 teams in rushing (151.50).
The interesting thing about those numbers is that the Buckeyes trail the No. 1 rushing team, Michigan, by just 44.17 yards per game. They trail Purdue, the No. 1 passing team, by 71.83 yards.
 
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I wouldnt worry about the computer polls, they'll come around. Once the teams we've already beaten start collecting wins we will be fine, texas will win the big 12, NIU might very well win the MAC, Penn State and Iowa should each have one or two more losses each at most. Besides USC and UF are going to lose.
 
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