The Penn State-Ohio State showdown headlines Week 9’s Big Ten College Football betting lines
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


The Nittany Lions and Buckeyes clash in Columbus on Saturday afternoon in a matchup that will shake up the College Football Playoff.

Last week ATS: 3-8 (2-3 National, 1-5 B1G)

Season ATS: 55-52-2 (22-20 National, 33-32-2 B1G)

Penn State-Ohio State isn’t the only game between ranked teams this weekend, as three more are on tap nationally on Saturday. You can find my picks for those games and three other intriguing national games here.

B1G games:


No. 5 Wisconsin (-26) v. Illinois - 12:00 PM EST - ESPN

Illinois was able to at least keep last week’s game against Minnesota close until giving up two touchdowns late, but Wisconsin is no Minnesota. The Badgers are going to run all over the Fighting Illini. Jonathan Taylor adds to his tremendous freshman year as the Badgers stay undefeated with a easy win over Illinois.

Wisconsin 54, Illinois 14

Rutgers v. Michigan (-24) - 12:00 PM EST - Big Ten Network

How things have changed in just over a year. In early October 2016, Michigan laid a 78-burger on the Scarlet Knights in Piscataway. Now the Scarlet Knights have actually won two games in a row, while Michigan is completely lost.

Last week the Scarlet Knights gutted out a 14-12 win over Purdue, surviving a two-point conversion attempt from the Boilermakers late in the game. Rutgers still can’t do much on offense, and that won’t change against the Wolverines. Where Rutgers will need to find their points is by forcing John O’Korn into some turnovers that the Scarlet Knights can turn into points.

Can Michigan even score 24 points? Right about now I’m not all that sure they can. Take away the Ohio State game, and the only team that has scored at least 30 points against the Scarlet Knights has been Washington. Rutgers isn’t going to win, but they at least show some fight against a struggling Michigan team.

Michigan 27, Rutgers 14

No. 16 Michigan State (-2) v. Northwestern - 3:30 PM EST - ESPN

After last week I pretty much want to pick against Michigan State every week. I took Indiana as a touchdown underdog to the Spartans and all was looking good with the Hoosiers clinging to a 9-3 lead in the fourth quarter. Then the Spartans come out of nowhere to score two touchdowns in the last six minutes to cover the spread.

Northwestern earned their second win a row last week, outlasting Iowa 17-10 in overtime. I honestly have no idea what to think about Northwestern. They really haven’t done anything noteworthy this year. A couple wins here, a couple rather lopsided losses there. Just blah.

At what point is Michigan State’s luck going to run out? The Spartans have won four games in a row, all but eight points or less. I think Michigan State extends their winning streak to five before falling next week to Penn State. Even though I’m not crazy about taking the Spartans on the road here, I do like them at essentially a coin flip.

Michigan State 21, Northwestern 17

Indiana (-4) v. Maryland - 3:30 PM EST - Big Ten Network

Indiana squandered a golden opportunity to inject some excitement into the second half of their season last week when they blew a fourth quarter lead to Michigan State in East Lansing. Now the Hoosiers hit the road again, and will see if Peyton Ramsey can make some noise against a suspect Maryland defense.

On offense the Terrapins do have some pieces in running back Ty Johnson and wide receivers Taivon Jacobs and D.J. Moore. It’s just a shame they couldn’t stay healthy at quarterback, or they could have made a little more noise in the Big Ten.

After a couple of close losses, Indiana puts together a more complete performance Saturday against the Terrapins. The defense will carry the Hoosiers early on and eventually wear a beaten up Maryland team down. Indiana will return to Bloomington for next week’s game with Wisconsin with a little pep in their step.

Indiana 33, Maryland 20

Minnesota v. Iowa (-7.5) - 6:30 PM EST - FS1

Neither of these teams are very fun to watch right now. Minnesota slogged through a 24-17 win over Illinois last week, snapping a three-game losing streak. The Golden Gophers have issues at quarterback, with Demry Croft only completing five of his 15 passes last week. Luckily, Minnesota had Kobe McCrary and Rodney Smith to shoulder the load, combining for 256 yards on the ground.

Iowa is in just as rough a shape as Minnesota, with the Hawkeyes having lost three of their last four games. The Hawkeyes should be better on offense with quarterback Nathan Stanley and running back Akrum Wadley, but something just isn’t clicking. It’s like the loss to Penn State totally derailed the season for the Hawkeyes.

With both teams looking terrible of late, I just can’t bring myself to give a touchdown and the hook. Iowa wins in a game that is close all the way and doesn’t feature a whole lot of scoring.

Iowa 17, Minnesota 14

Nebraska v. Purdue (-5.5) - 7:30 PM EST - Big Ten Network

For as terrible as they have played this year, Nebraska is somehow still tied for second in the Big Ten West. The Cornhuskers got a much needed bye last week after getting housed in Lincoln by Ohio State. At least Nebraska saw something from redshirt freshman wide receiver J.D. Spielman, who is the nephew of Chris Spielman.

Things were looking good early on in the season for Purdue, but lately it has gotten dark for the Boilermakers. Last week Purdue fell to Rutgers 14-12, and now the Boilermakers have to find three wins in their last five games to become bowl eligible. The quarterback position is a bit of a mess right now, with neither Elijah Sindelar or David Blough performing well on a consistent basis.

Aside from Northern Illinois, Nebraska is at least beating teams they should beat on their schedule. Purdue is better with Jeff Brohm as their head coach, but I’m wondering if they came out of the gates a little too hot. There hasn’t been nearly as much excitement on offense lately for the Boilermakers. I trust Tanner Lee and what Nebraska has on offense to move the football a little more than I trust Purdue right now.

Nebraska 31, Purdue 27

No. 2 Penn State v. No. 6 Ohio State (-6) - 3:30 PM EST - FOX

Say goodbye to the cupcakes, Ohio State is playing a real football team. The Buckeyes are in the midst of their best offensive stretch in school history, racking up at least 500 yards in each of the last five games. It’ll be tough for Ohio State to extend that streak though, as Penn State is the nation’s leading scoring defense, only allowing 9.6 points per game.

Much like Ohio State, who has Penn State really played lately? Sure, Michigan is tough on defense but their offense is non-existent. A win under the lights at Iowa is nice, but since Penn State won in Iowa City the Hawkeyes have fallen off the map. The only thing we truly know about the Nittany Lions is that Saquon Barkley is really, really good.

I’m not expecting Ohio State to completely shut Barkley down, but I do think they are more likely to slow down the running back than Penn State is likely to shut down Buckeye running backs J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber. The Ohio State running game will open up some holes in the improved Buckeye passing game which J.T. Barrett will exploit. The senior quarterback will break the tie with Drew Brees for most passing touchdowns in Big Ten history.

Unlike earlier this year when the Buckeyes laid an egg against Oklahoma, Urban Meyer will have his team ready to play. I’d love to see Ohio State blow Penn State out but I know the Nittany Lions are going to give the Buckeyes a tough game. I could see this game being within a touchdown for two or three quarters but by the end the Buckeyes end up winning by double digits.

Ohio State 34, Penn State 24

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Urban Meyer reveals why JT Barrett is such a vital piece to the Buckeyes' continued success - FOXSports.com
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Urban Meyer reveals why JT Barrett is such a vital piece to the Buckeyes' continued success
FOXSports.com
Urban Meyer reveals to Nick Wright and Cris Carter why J.T. Barrett is such a vital piece to the Buckeyes' continued success. Big Ten · CFB · FBS (I-A) · First Things First · J.T. Barrett · Mid-American · Ohio Bobcats · Ohio State Buckeyes · Saquon ...

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Examining Penn State-Ohio State conference and playoff implications
Kyle Sumner McKinnon via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


One of the biggest games of the year has even bigger implications.

The strength of the Big Ten has seldom been greater with No. 2 Penn State and No. 6 Ohio State set to face off on Saturday.

Well, the strength of the Big Ten East, that is.

In a crowded division, the implications to follow the heavyweight matchup are a plenty. The East has two top 10 teams and three ranked teams overall, each with no more than one loss as we head into the final six weeks of the college football season.

And with Michigan having already tapped out, that leaves Ohio State, Michigan State, and Penn State in the race for a spot in Indianapolis. All three have yet to play each other.

Cue the Big Ten insanity.

Here’s a look at the remaining schedules for the East’s contenders.

Ohio State (6-1, 4-0)

vs. Penn State

at Iowa

vs. Michigan State

vs. Illinois

at Michigan

Penn State (7-0, 4-0)

at Ohio State

at Michigan State

vs. Rutgers

vs. Nebraska

at Maryland

Michigan State (6-1, 4-0)

at Northwestern

vs. Penn State

at Ohio State

vs. Maryland

at Rutgers



The timeliness couldn’t be anymore perfect, but it’s hardly new territory for the teams involved.

Ohio State, Michigan State, and Penn State have successfully run the B1G gambit in recent years since divisions and a conference championship game were introduced prior to the 2011 campaign.

The Spartans have made three appearances in the Big Ten title bout in that time, winning twice. Coming off a down season, Mark Dantonio has Michigan State back on track. They’re tied for second in the East with Ohio State and earned a signature victory over rival Michigan in Week 6.



Dual-threat quarterback Brian Lewerke has paced their offense with 1,362 passing yards and 10 touchdowns. He’s added another 313 yards and three scores on the ground.

What’s more, the Spartans are ranked fourth nationally in total defense. They’re eighth in the FBS with 93.6 rushing yards per game allowed and lead the Big Ten in rush defense, yielding 72.5 yards per game in four conference contests.

Lining up across from Michigan State in about a week is Penn State.

The Nittany Lions captured their first Big Ten title in eight years last season, James Franklin’s third at the helm.

Now the folks in Columbus might take issue, but there isn’t a better backfield in college football today than Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley. Barkley and his 1,494 all-purpose yards, 13 touchdowns, and ever-looping highlight reel are why he’s the Heisman Trophy frontrunner.



Defensively, a stingy secondary anchors Penn State’s No. 1 ranked scoring unit.

Then we have Ohio State.

The Scarlet and Gray are riding a five-game win streak. During that time, J.T. Barrett has thrown for 1,838 yards, 21 touchdowns, with a 72.1 completion percentage and zero interceptions. He’s run for 359 yards and five touchdowns, too.

For a better idea of how efficient Ohio State has been with the ball in their hands, they’re currently No. 3 in the country in total offense, No. 18 in rushing, No. 12 in passing, No. 4 in passing efficiency, and No. 2 in scoring.



Per the usual throughout the past two years, the Buckeyes defense is one of the very best in nation. Led by Nick Bosa, Sam Hubbard, and Jerome Baker, the defensive front is the backbone of the team.

So, if it isn’t clear by now, allow me to interject: No conference in all of college football has a division that’s as contentious as the Big Ten East.

It’s not even close.

The implications for Penn State’s meeting with Ohio State are at stratospheric levels.

Should the Nittany Lions lose, they risk putting the Buckeyes back in the driver’s seat. If Urban Meyer and Co. can’t pull off the upset, there’s no chance they qualify for the playoff, let alone the Big Ten championship game.

And what about Michigan State?

Regardless of who wins between Penn State and Ohio State, the Spartans season comes down to a critical two-week stretch in November featuring their aforementioned conference rivals.

There’s more on the line than a mere ‘W’ this Saturday.

The next month will be telling.

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I Got Five on it: Can Ohio State avoid Tecmo Bowl playcalling against Penn State?
Colton Denning via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


Plus, kicking to Saquon Barkley isn’t a very good idea.

The game we’ve all been waiting for is finally here, and no, I don’t mean Northwestern-Michigan State.

After five weeks of Pacman-ing their way through delicious cupcakes —plus a bye week— Ohio State squares up against No. 2 Penn State in a game with major national implications, and that will probably determine who wins the Big Ten East.

For Penn State, it’s a chance to prove last year wasn’t a fluke, to cement Saquon Barkley as the Heisman Trophy favorite, and firmly entrench themselves towards a spot in the College Football Playoff.

For Ohio State, it’s an opportunity to redeem last year’s bitter loss in Happy Valley, prove that the offense has indeed turned the corner (praying hands emoji), and remind everyone who the real king of the Big Ten is.

With that in mind, let’s move past the lame fluff and get to the bad jokes, plus five things to watch for tomorrow:

Avoiding the ‘J.T. Barrett left, J.T. Barrett right,’ crutch


Throughout Barrett’s four years as starting quarterback, it’s almost a given that if Ohio State needs a first down in a close game, No. 16 is running the ball. The strategy has produced one of the most hilariously good moments in program history, but more often than not, it’s resulted in some confusing outcomes. It’s one thing to put the ball in the hands of your best player with the game on the line; it’s another to revert to Tecmo Bowl-ass playcalling because you don’t trust anyone else:


Ohio State’s close game playbook

This isn’t a knock on Barrett. He’s as tough as they come, and honestly, there are worse options than bludgeoning him up the middle when you need a first down. Ultimately though, it isn’t a winning strategy for the Buckeyes to utilize against Penn State, or any other top-flight team if they want to win a championship.

So, in what’s almost assuredly going to be a close game, will Meyer and Co. trust that the rest of the Buckeyes’ offensive weapons can contribute in crunch time, or will they revert to Barrett trying to gut out 20 carries once again?

Judgement day for the passing game


The best way to eliminate the “Barrett student body left/right” playcalls is for the passing game to show that the last five weeks wasn’t all smoke and mirrors. Even marginal success in the air means not letting Penn State crowd the box like they did last year:


A 100% real and completely un-photoshopped picture from last year’s game

While it’s been awesome watching Barrett and his receivers rebound from the Oklahoma game over the last month-plus, tomorrow presents the first real chance for them to show it against a top-flight defense.

You can bet that the Nittany Lions will bring up their safeties and trust their corners by themselves until Zone 6 proves they can make them pay, and that’s probably the key to whether Ohio State wins this game or not.

In short, a successful day throwing means Ohio State is in the drivers seat for a spot in the College Football Playoff by Saturday night. Another unsuccessful day, and we’re asking the same questions we did after the Oklahoma and Clemson games.

Breaking the streak


I’m sure you’ve already heard, but Penn State has allowed a total of zero first quarter points this season. In total, they’ve outscored opponents 90-0 in the opening frame, which seems good, in my opinion. Recent history doesn’t suggest Ohio State will be the first to score on them.

In their last three games versus ranked opponents (Oklahoma, Clemson, Michigan), the Buckeyes haven’t scored in the first quarter, and have averaged a meager 3.3 yards per play. Spoiler: That probably won’t cut it against the No. 2 team in the country that likes to kill its opponents right off the bat. Ohio State doesn’t have to score in the first quarter to win tomorrow, but it sure would go a long way towards helping them win.

Defending Saquon Barkley


Michigan linebacker Mike McCray is a very good football player. He’s without question one of the best defenders in the Big Ten. At 6’4”, 242 pounds, he has the size to play inside, and is quick enough to have registered seven tackles for loss this season. What he’s not built for is covering Saquon Barkley:



One of the reasons Michigan got dirt-napped so bad last week was that players like McCray were put into unwinnable situations against Barkley, and Penn State made them pay. He’s going to produce no matter what, but Michigan’s apparent lack of strategy for defending him meant that they didn’t really defend anyone at all.

Whether Ohio State opts for Iowa’s plan of letting Barkley run wild, and clamping down on everyone else, or making it the focal point of the defense to stop him like Northwestern and Indiana tried to do, literally any strategy would be better than what Michigan came up with.

Keep an eye on Jerome Baker’s play-to-play movements, as he’s the linebacker best suited to match up with Barkley’s athleticism. If they don’t go that route, Greg Schiano might opt to just trust that Buckeyes’ talented defensive line can limit his damage. Either way, No. 26 is going to be a handful.

Avoiding the big mistake


Here are some things Ohio State did in last year’s game that should have been more than enough to win:

• Outgained Penn State by over 100 yards.
• Converted seven more third downs, plus a fourth down.
• Held a 15 minute time of possession advantage, and ran 27 more plays.
• Forced a turnover and didn’t commit one.
• Held a 19-13 advantage in first downs.

In all, the Buckeyes had a 64% win expectancy, but two huge special teams plays ultimately changed the tide of the game. Tomorrow is probably going to be another close game, and a clean day on special teams could mean the difference between winning and losing.

That starts with not kicking the ball to Barkley. He already has one kickoff return touchdown, and giving him any more chances to beat you seems like an unwise decision, especially for an Ohio State kick coverage group that’s been bad (111th in kickoff success rate).

By almost any measure, Ohio State should win this game. They’re more talented, have a better offense and defense, and are playing at home in what will be a crazy environment. But as we saw last year, one special teams play can change everything, and that has to be worrisome given what we’ve seen from Ohio State’s third phase this season.

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Urban Meyer discusses the revenge factor with his Buckeyes facing the Penn State Nittany Lions - FOXSports.com
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Urban Meyer discusses the revenge factor with his Buckeyes facing the Penn State Nittany Lions
FOXSports.com
MINNEAPOLIS — Just five games into the season, the Minnesota Timberwolves are quickly learning how valuable newcomer Jimmy Butler is to their success. While Butler sat out consecutive games because of an upper-respiratory infection, Minnesota ...

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Ohio State football | Tight ends for Buckeyes, Nittany Lions capable of big plays - The Columbus Dispatch
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Ohio State football | Tight ends for Buckeyes, Nittany Lions capable of big plays
The Columbus Dispatch
Call up the Penn State highlights and tight end Mike Gesicki — a player the Buckeyes once coveted — jumps off the screen at key moments. Do the same for Ohio State and it's obvious tight ends Marcus Baugh and newcomer Rashod Berry have become ...


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New coach tries to put struggling Buckeyes back together - New York Daily News
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New coach tries to put struggling Buckeyes back together
New York Daily News
COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — The offseason for the Ohio State basketball program was strange and tumultuous. First the Buckeyes missed the NCAA Tournament for the second straight season, finishing 7-11 in the Big Ten. Center Trevor Thompson left early for ...

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Ohio State vs. Penn State 2017: Game preview, prediction, and 6 things to know
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


Ohio State will be fighting to stay in the College Football Playoff race on Saturday afternoon when they host Penn State.

Following their loss to Oklahoma in early September, Ohio State has handily won five straight games. Fresh off their bye week, Ohio State welcomes Penn State to Ohio Stadium for Saturday afternoon’s contest, and the Buckeyes have revenge on their minds.

Last year Ohio State was undefeated when they made the trip to Happy Valley to take on the Nittany Lions. The Buckeyes looked to be in good shape to stay undefeated when they entered the fourth quarter with a 21-7 lead. Ohio State wasn’t able to hand Penn State their third loss of the season though, as the Nittany Lions scored the final 17 points of the game to pull off the upset. The game-winner for Penn State came with just under five minutes remaining, when Grant Haley returned a block field goal 60 yards for a touchdown.

Last year Penn State came into their matchup against the Buckeyes off their bye week, and the Nittany Lions put their time off to good use, by formulating a game plan that resulted in the upset of the Buckeyes. This year Ohio State is the team coming off a bye week, and Urban Meyer is 45-4 when he has more than a week to prepare for his opponent.

With the week off, Ohio State was able to watch last Saturday night as Penn State hosted Michigan in State College. The Nittany Lions impressed, scoring 28 unanswered points in the 42-13 victory over the Wolverines. Penn State was able to add to Michigan’s woes on offense, holding the Wolverines to just 269 yards in the win. Saquon Barkley continued to add to his stellar season, rushing for two touchdowns and catching a third.

The bye week came at just the right time for Ohio State, as they probably need the full two weeks to solve a Penn State defense that is allowing just 9.6 points per game, which is the best in the country. The Nittany Lions have already recorded two shutouts this year, and they have yet to allow an opponent to score 20 points. Seniors Jason Cabinda and Marcus Allen lead the Penn State defense. Cabinda leads the team with 53 tackles this year, while Allen is just 10 tackles away from 300 for his career in State College.

Ohio State is going to have their work cut out for them running the football, as Taz Bateman is the only opponent Penn State has allowed to eclipse 100 yards on the ground this year. The Georgia State running back needed 29 carries to hit the 100-yard mark. The Buckeyes are going to have to continue to get strong play from their offensive line if they want to get J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber in a rhythm early, so the running game could possibly relieve some pressure the Nittany Lions will throw at quarterback J.T. Barrett.

Ohio State’s biggest advantages


Brimming with confidence. Say what you will about the competition Ohio State has faced over the past five games, but the Buckeyes have done what has been expected of them since their loss to Oklahoma. During the five-game win streak, Ohio State has racked up at least 500 yards of total offense in each game, marking the first time in school history they have eclipsed 500 yards in five straight games.

Ohio State has scored at least 50 points in each of the last four games, and now have scored at least 50 points 23 times under Urban Meyer. Many of those touchdowns have come from the arm of J.T. Barrett, who has thrown for 18 touchdowns during the five-game win streak. The next touchdown Barrett throws will break a tie with Drew Brees for the most touchdown passes in Big Ten history. Currently Brees and Barrett both have 90 career touchdown passes.

Unlike last year when Ohio State’s wide receivers struggled with consistency, this year Barrett has been getting many of his teammates involved in the passing game. So far this year Ohio State has eight players who have caught at least 10 passes, nine players who have amassed at least 100 yards receiving during the year, and 10 players who have caught at least one touchdown pass. The variety of weapons Barrett has to choose from could be the difference against a Penn State defense that hasn’t seen a passing game so far this year as dynamic as what they’ll see from the Buckeyes on Saturday.

Tough nut to crack. Following the first two games of the season, Ohio State’s defense was under fire for their lackluster performance. Since losing to Oklahoma, Ohio State has allowed just 56 points, and only 42 of those can be pinned on the defense, as one of UNLV’s touchdowns was an interception return, and Maryland returned a kickoff for a touchdown.

Ohio State has been especially stingy on defense when opponents have found their way inside the red zone. Opponents have gotten inside Ohio State’s 20-yard line 17 times this year, but the Buckeyes have only given up 10 touchdowns, which is sixth-best in the nation.

Ohio State’s strong defensive line can be given a lot of credit for setting the tone for the rest of the defense with the pressure and penetration they have been able to create. Nick Bosa has been even better than advertised in his sophomore season, as he leads the team with 10 tackles for loss. Ohio State will need another strong outing from Bosa and his mates on the defensive line, as they’ll have a tough task in trying to slow down Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley.

Revenge on their mind. While it is never hard for Ohio State to get up for a game against Penn State, the result of last year’s game has the Buckeyes itching for another crack at the Nittany Lions. Ohio State dominated last year’s contest in State College pretty much everywhere except on the scoreboard. The Buckeyes outgained Penn State by over 130 yards and possessed the football for nearly 15 minutes more than the Nittany Lions, only to see the game decided by a fluky blocked field goal for a touchdown.

Saturday’s game will mark the eighth time in which both teams enter the game ranked inside the top 10, with Ohio State winning four of the seven previous matchups. The Ohio State faithful are hoping the result will be a little different than the last time these two teams met in Columbus with both ranked in the top 10. In 2008, Penn State entered the game ranked third in the country, while Ohio State was ranked 10th. The Nittany Lions were able to grit out a 13-6 win over the Buckeyes.

The atmosphere for Saturday’s game will be a little different, as for the first time since Urban Meyer took over at Ohio State, the game between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions will kickoff before 5:30 p.m. ET. Even with the earlier start, as well as some possible cold and rainy weather in the forecast, it doesn’t mean the crowd inside Ohio Stadium will be any less juiced. Penn State had some issues on the road at Iowa, committing a season-high eight penalties, so any noise from the Buckeye crowd that could throw the Nittany Lions off their game would be an added bonus.

Penn State’s biggest advantages


The real deal. Saquon Barkley has been the most electrifying player in college football so far this year. The junior is one of the front runners for the Heisman Trophy, and it’s not hard to see why. Last week Barkley set the tone for the win over Michigan with a 69-yard touchdown run on just the second play of the game, and then followed it up with a 15-yard touchdown run just a few minutes later. The 14-0 deficit was something the Wolverines weren’t able to overcome.

The running back is a threat both on the ground, and through the air, as he is averaging 108 yards rushing per game, along with 64 yards receiving per game. If that wasn’t enough for opponents to try and stop, Barkley has returned a kickoff for a touchdown this year, and he also threw for a touchdown against Indiana. The 211 all-purpose yards Barkley is averaging per game leads the nation.

Barkley is the first Penn State player, and just the fourth player in Big Ten history to rush for 3,000 yards and rack up 1,000 receiving yards in his career. If those stats weren’t impressive enough, Barkley is the first junior to accomplish the feat. Barkley’s ability to hurt defense not only on the ground, but also in the passing game is what powers Penn State’s offense, because with the added attention Barkley demands, it can free up some of the other playmakers the Nittany Lions have on offense.

Trace MoxieSorley. Penn State has to feel like they hit the jackpot for the job Trace McSorley has done in replacing Christian Hackenberg. The senior has thrown at least one touchdown in 22 straight games, and his 45 passing touchdowns are just three shy of tying the school record.

What the senior quarterback has that not many other quarterbacks in the country have is no fear. On the final play of the game with the Nittany Lions trailing at Iowa earlier this year, McSorley zipped a seven-yard touchdown pass to Juwan Johnson to give Penn State a 21-19 win.

What makes McSorley even harder to defend is he does have the ability to make some plays with his legs when needed. To go along with the 14 touchdowns he has thrown this year, McSorley has also added seven rushing touchdowns. Ohio State has to be careful not to over pursue and allow McSorley to break contain and keep drives alive with his legs.

Even though Ohio State lost to Penn State last year, they did a good job for the most part in holding McSorley in check. The quarterback completed just eight of his 23 passes for 154 yards and a touchdown, and added 63 yards and a touchdown on the ground. If Ohio State can hold McSorley to similar numbers and maybe add in a couple turnovers, they’ll have a good shot at taking down the Nittany Lions.

Send ‘em home early. Last year Penn State was an exciting team to watch, especially at the end of the year, but some of that was because they were able to dig themselves out of some early deficits. In the 2016 Big Ten Championship Game, the Nittany Lions found themselves behind Wisconsin 14-7 at the end of the first quarter, and by halftime it was 28-14 in the Badgers favor. Penn State was able to come back and beat Wisconsin to earn a spot in the Rose Bowl, where they fell behind USC 13-0 after 15 minutes of play.

The Nittany Lions have learned from some of their mistakes from last year, and are starting games a lot stronger. So far this year the Nittany Lions are outscoring opponents 90-0 in the first quarter. It’s no coincidence that Penn State has won every game except for one by double figures.

Along with jumping out to an early lead, Penn State is also not beating themselves. This year the Nittany Lions are averaging just 3.57 penalties per game, which is second-best in the country. The only game where Penn State committed more than five penalties this year came against Iowa, where the Nittany Lions committed eight infractions for 90 yards. If the crowd noise inside Ohio Stadium doesn’t throw the Nittany Lions off their game, it’ll make an already tough task in beating Penn State that much harder.

Summary


F/+ Projection: Ohio State 33, Penn State 24

Win Probability: Ohio State 71.1%

By the numbers this will be a hard-fought game, with both defenses struggling after feasting for most of the season on subpar competition. Ohio State should be able to find a few more holes with the arm of J.T. Barrett, along with the legs of J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber in this contest.

While Penn State will have some trouble slowing Barrett, Dobbins, and Weber, Ohio State’s tough defense will have a more success slowing what Barkley and McSorley will bring to the table. The Buckeye defensive line is a game changer with the pressure they can create.

Despite what happened to Ohio State last year in State College with the blocked field goal that was returned for a touchdown, it’s a little easier to trust Ohio State’s special teams in a close game. Penn State kicker Tyler Davis has hit just six of his 13 field goal attempts this year, and has missed all four of his attempts from 30-39 yards.

This game should be an entertaining one, as it’ll mix in the Big Ten toughness of years past, along with some of the new-age offenses. The colder temperatures and possible rain could add to the Big Ten feel. The Buckeyes find a way to stay in the playoff picture as they snap Penn State’s 15-game regular season winning streak.

How to watch, stream, listen to Penn State v. Ohio State:


Game time: Saturday, Oct. 28th, 3:30 p.m. ET

TV: FOX

Streaming: FOX Sports Go

Radio: 97.1 WBNS-FM

Know your enemy: Black Shoe Diaries

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PREVIEW: No. 6 Ohio State hosts No. 2 Penn State on Saturday - Dayton Daily News
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


PREVIEW: No. 6 Ohio State hosts No. 2 Penn State on Saturday
Dayton Daily News
Ohio State's Urban Meyer walks the sideline during a game against Penn State on Saturday, Oct. 22, 2016, at Beaver Stadium in State College, Pa. David Jablonski/Staff. COLUMBUS. Who: No. 2 Penn State (7-0, 4-0) at No. 6 Ohio State (6-1, 4-0). When: 3 ...


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After struggling last year, Ohio State’s wide receivers are having fun again
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


Zone 6 has had plenty of touchdowns to celebrate so far this season.

“That’s something we take pride in. When we go out, we want everybody to know that we’re there. If that’s energy or putting in work being quiet, we’re doing what we’re supposed to do. We’re just a bunch of hard-working dudes. That’s all we are. We do what we can, we do what we’re supposed to do and we do what we’re asked.”

Ohio State wide receivers coach Zach Smith via Austin Ward, Land of 10


After Ohio State dealt with inconsistency from their wide receivers last year, it’s obvious “Zone 6” is having a lot more fun this year. The Buckeye wide receivers have found the endzone plenty of times this season, and they are hoping to continue the trend when Penn State comes to town on Saturday.

Wide receivers coach Zach Smith heads up Zone 6, but it has taken a lot of hard work to get where he is now. Smith knew from an early age he wanted to be a coach, especially since his grandfather is Earle Bruce. The former Ohio State head coach told Smith to go to Bowling Green to learn from Urban Meyer. The current Buckeye head coach eventually went to Florida, and Smith wound up on Meyer’s staff from 2005 until 2009.

Meyer and Smith eventually reunited at Ohio State, and they have been together since. During his time at Ohio State, Smith has helped develop receivers like Michael Thomas, Devin Smith, and Noah Brown. Now the Buckeyes have a talented group of young receivers, which could be on their way to the NFL over the next few seasons. Zone 6 works hard, but they also know when they can have a bit of fun. With the way they have played so far this year, they deserve to enjoy some of the fruits of their labor, but Smith undoubtedly has his wide receivers hungry for more.

“Always be aware of where he’s at, know where he is every play, every down. That’s just pure respect.”

Ohio State linebacker Jerome Baker via Mitch Stacy, Associated Press


Penn State’s Saquon Barkley can do it all. The junior running back is the first Penn State player to eclipse the 3,000 yard rushing mark and 1,000 yard receiving mark in his career. Oh yeah, Barkley has also returned a kick for a touchdown this year, as well as thrown a touchdown pass. Really all that is left to Barkley to do is record a defensive touchdown.

So far teams have had no luck in slowing down Barkley this year, but Ohio State hopes their disciplined approach will be able to keep Barkley from being the difference in the game. Penn State has used mismatches to free up Barkley for some big touchdowns this year, but the Buckeyes know they have to account for the running back on every down. But there is a fine line because the Buckeyes can’t give Barkley too much attention either, because the Nittany Lions have a number of other weapons on offense who can hurt opposing defenses. All of this is why Barkley is considered one of the front runners for the Heisman Trophy this year.

“I want to believe what I’ve seen these last five games. So do you, Buckeye Nation. Your team still hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent this season because it fell to the only one it played.”

Dennis Dodd, CBS Sports


It’s easy to understand why some people might not be ready to completely buy into Ohio State quite yet. The Buckeyes have demolished their last five opponents since losing to Oklahoma, but those five opponents have a combined record of 17-19. Ohio State isn’t the only team facing questions like this though.

Who really has Alabama played this year? While Penn State has beaten Iowa on the road, and Michigan last week at home, the Nittany Lions schedule has been rather soft. The College Football Playoff could see a serious shakeup if the Buckeyes are able to beat Penn State on Saturday.

What has made the lead-up to the Penn State game even more exhausting that normal, is the uncertainty of which Ohio State is going to show up against the Nittany Lions. Will it be the Buckeye team that laid an egg against Oklahoma, or the buzzsaw fans have seen over the past five games. Were those beatings the Buckeyes handed out over the past month and a half really getting the team more comfortable for these tougher or conference games, or did they just pad stats? Saturday can’t come soon enough for Buckeye fans to find out.

“I think the reality is you have other programs in the state that have been really high-achieving programs. I get why we haven’t played some of those schools in the past, but I also recognize that, I think perhaps if those programs were really struggling programs that wouldn’t be beneficial for us. I don’t think that be in Ohio State’s best interest, but they’re programs that have had success and makes it mutually beneficial.”

Ohio State men’s basketball coach Chris Holtmann via Edward Sutelan, The Lantern


Ohio State men’s basketball head coach is more focused on prepping his team for the upcoming season, but the first-year Buckeye coach is also trying to help put together a Crossroads Classic-type event in Ohio. While he was at Butler, the Bulldogs participate in a yearly event, which saw the four best teams in Indiana square off in Indianapolis. In his first year on the job, Holtmann’s Bulldogs took on Indiana, followed by Purdue and Indiana again in his final two seasons at Butler. The only team he didn’t face off with during his time at the school in the Crossroads Classic was Notre Dame.

Any type of Crossroads Classic event in Ohio would likely include Ohio State, Cincinnati, Xavier, and Dayton. Fans have been calling for an event like this for years, but putting it together is easier said than done. In the past Ohio State hasn’t really had anything to gain by participating in an event like this. Now with the Buckeyes rebuilding, and the other three schools seeing more success at this time, if there was ever a time to put an event like this together, it would be now.

One recent change would could get in the way of Ohio State being involved in an event like this would be the recent change by the Big Ten, increasing the number of conference games from 18 to 20. With Ohio State involved in the CBS Sports Classic for at least a few more years, the Buckeyes might be hesitant to add an event like this to their schedule. If Ohio State is able to work an event like this into their future schedules, it’ll be sure to increase interest on the hardwood in the Buckeye State.

STICK TO SPORTS

• Ohio State has issued a neighborhood safety alert after an armed robbery early Thursday morning.
• Hot Chicken Takeover’s Easton location will open on November 6th.
• The new White Castle headquarters building has been approved.
• There is still time to get free sushi at P.F. Chang’s today.
• Check out this visual tour of some of the restaurants from ‘The Sopranos’.

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Ohio State Buckeyes will edge powerful Penn State: Livingston (photos) - cleveland.com
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Ohio State Buckeyes will edge powerful Penn State: Livingston (photos)
cleveland.com
COLUMBUS, Ohio --Oklahoma "humbled" Ohio State and let the Buckeyes "know we weren't who we thought we were," according to linebacker Jerome Baker from Benedictine. The defeat in early September at the Horseshoe sent Baker back to the videotape ...
Buckeyes scheming to stop Barkley, 'the best we've seen'The Philadelphia Tribune
Will the real Ohio State please stand up? Buckeyes' boom-or-bust test vs. Penn StateCBSSports.com
Ohio State recruiting: The latest on Buckeyes' top-ranked 2018 recruiting classLandof10.com
USA TODAY
all 210 news articles »

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Buckeyes coach Chris Holtmann knows how to make his point … a difficult point - The Athletic
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Buckeyes coach Chris Holtmann knows how to make his point … a difficult point
The Athletic
Paul Patterson, who coached basketball at Taylor University for 34 years, tells the story of one of his players being so upset after a game that he left the locker room without a word and holed up in a motel room 15 miles from campus until he could ...


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Is Ohio State pulling off a 2014-style bounceback again? Penn State can answer that, one way or the other - SB Nation
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Is Ohio State pulling off a 2014-style bounceback again? Penn State can answer that, one way or the other
SB Nation
The Buckeyes have finished sixth or better in the AP poll for 11 of the last 15 seasons. They are 67-7 since Urban Meyer took over in 2012. They are one of the most proven commodities in sports. Now they welcome Penn State to town. The Nittany Lions ...

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Buckeyes scheming to stop Barkley, 'the best we've seen' - The Philadelphia Tribune
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Buckeyes scheming to stop Barkley, 'the best we've seen'
The Philadelphia Tribune
The first one did not go well for Penn State — 38-10 Buckeyes. But against an Ohio State team with Ezekiel Elliott, Joey Bosa and plethora of future NFL draft picks, Barkley as a freshman might have been the best player on the field. He ran for 194 ...
Will the real Ohio State please stand up? Buckeyes' boom-or-bust test vs. Penn StateCBSSports.com
Ohio State recruiting: DT Taron Vincent excited to be coming back to Columbus; Buckeyes recruiting IndianaLandof10.com
Week 9 Preview: Buckeyes seek revenge against Penn StateUSA TODAY
Washington Post
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Ohio State looking to seal off borders, keep state's top prospects at home
Caleb Houser via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


They're facing stiff competition from Notre Dame and other top programs for Ohio's best talent.

The wait is nearly over! In case you've been living under a rock, tomorrow at 3:30pm the game of the year—essentially not only in the Big Ten Conference but in all of college football—takes place in Columbus when the Buckeyes host undefeated Penn State. With so much on the line in this game, including a clear shot to the Big Ten Championship and maybe the Playoffs as well, you know Urban Meyer is using his background in psychology to prep his team for the ultimate revenge. Seemingly all eyes will be on the game, including both ESPN'S College Gameday and Fox Sports coverage. Buckeye Nation and many of the nation's top recruits (as we already know) will be in Columbus, and a win over the Nittany Lions on the field could also show potential for wins over that same team on the recruiting trail.

Ohio's best belong in Columbus


As mentioned, it seems as if everyone Ohio State is recruiting will be in Columbus tomorrow afternoon, but the Buckeyes know there's one prospect who will be elsewhere. Enter Cincinnati Anderson's Zeke Correll and you have a 2019 stud in-state lineman that the Buckeyes know is a top priority they'd love to add to the fold alongside Doug Nester, their 2019 offensive tackle commit.

Correll, a 6'4, 270-pound offensive guard, is already one of the top prospects on Ohio State's board. Knowing the importance of protecting the borders around Ohio, Urban Meyer and his staff are taking this recruitment more than seriously. However, Correll has weekend plans tomorrow to be in South Bend, Indiana for an unofficial visit with Notre Dame. Fortunately, Ohio State still has a strong presence with the ninth-best guard in the country and Ohio's eleventh-best player.


In an article with Bucknuts recruiting analyst Bill Kurelic, Correll makes it known to Buckeye recruiting followers that while he has weekend plans in another location, Meyer and Mark Pantoni speak with Zeke on a more than frequent basis. And who could blame them? After all, when a "Zeke" comes to Columbus they usually have pretty decent success. You can guarantee that the Ohio State staff will continue their full court press on this in-stater in hopes that they build the wall a little more solid around the talent within Ohio.

He's got his. Do you?


Of what seems like thousands of recruits in attendance tomorrow for this battle, one prospect Ohio State is starting to talk about more and more will certainly not only be at the game, but also joining in on the called for "blackout" of the Horseshoe. Rasheed Walker, a Waldorf, Maryland native, was thought to be all but locked up by Penn State. However, in the last few weeks, the Buckeyes have entered this race and have become a serious threat to land the 6'6, 300-pound offensive tackle. Realizing there's still the in-state Jackson Carman trying to be reeled in by the Buckeyes, Urban Meyer knows the battle is won in the trenches and the more, the merrier.


Walker not only possesses nearly thirty scholarship offers, but is considered to be the nation's eleventh-best tackle and the sixth-best prospect at any position in a very talented Maryland. With Penn State in town, they know Walker will be in Ohio State gear, and their chances with him still remain pretty solid. If the Buckeyes want to land this monster sized talent, they'll not only want to win on the field, but roll out the red carpet treatment and hope that Rasheed falls in love with the atmosphere. Having already visited Ohio State several times including position camp visits, the interest between the two parties is more than serious. Maybe this weekend can continue to sway this one away from Happy Valley and to Columbus instead.

So you're saying there's a chance?


Ohio State's defensive secondary recruiting is already going more than okay in this current 2018 cycle. It could even get better if their top uncommitted target, Anthony Cook, picks the Buckeyes come October 30. However, with the continued success the Buckeyes are having in their secondary with proven development, they're going to entertain more than just a couple of top prospects. Fortunately, when Urban Meyer and position coach Kerry Coombs go after a recruit, they more times than not end up with said recruit. However, with only so many spots on a college football roster, someone is bound to be left out. Or else they just choose another school entirely.

IMG Academy standout cornerback Houston Griffith is a current Florida State Seminoles commit, but there's been talk that he will still take his five allowed official visits. Of course when you only get five, it's important to choose wisely. Lately however, there's been some noise in the air that Griffith may even in fact take an official visit to Ohio State which was not originally planned. The nation's fifteenth-best corner and Florida's twentieth-best prospect at any position would certainly be welcomed by any program, but will the number match up for the Buckeyes? Will Griffith's visit, if he were to have one, even lead to a serious option for Ohio State? Nobody can tell for sure, but if a visit does occur, there's more than enough time until signing day 2018 for some shake-up to take place.

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Week 9 Preview: Buckeyes Seek Revenge Against Penn State - U.S. News & World Report
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Week 9 Preview: Buckeyes Seek Revenge Against Penn State
U.S. News & World Report
Ohio State (6-1, 4-0 Big Ten) will try to keep its playoff hopes alive by gaining revenge against Penn State (7-0, 4-0), which beat the Buckeyes 24-21 last season. These two teams are tied with No. 16 Michigan State (6-1, 4-0) atop the Big Ten's East ...

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New coach tries to put struggling Buckeyes back together - Idaho Statesman
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New coach tries to put struggling Buckeyes back together
Idaho Statesman
First the Buckeyes missed the NCAA Tournament for the second straight season, finishing 7-11 in the Big Ten. Center Trevor Thompson left early for the NBA draft. One of the team's best players, JaQuan Lyle, quit in April following an arrest, and ...

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Country's No. 3 RB who Buckeyes offered commits to Georgia - 247Sports
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Country's No. 3 RB who Buckeyes offered commits to Georgia
247Sports
The Buckeyes offered a scholarship to Miami (Fla.) Central running back James Cook early. However, with commitments from Brian Snead and Master Teague, the Buckeyes have not been recruiting running backs for quite some time and Cook announced ...

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Kurelic: Ohio star's new Top 3; Anthony Cook on, off and where? - 247Sports
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Kurelic: Ohio star's new Top 3; Anthony Cook on, off and where?
247Sports
1) The Buckeyes offered a scholarship to Cincinnati (Ohio) Anderson 2019 offensive lineman Zeke Correll in May. Since then Correll has been to Ohio State multiple times with his mother and father including earlier this summer for one of the Ohio State ...

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New coach tries to put struggling Buckeyes back together - FOXSports.com
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New coach tries to put struggling Buckeyes back together
FOXSports.com
COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) The offseason for the Ohio State basketball program was strange and tumultuous. First the Buckeyes missed the NCAA Tournament for the second straight season, finishing 7-11 in the Big Ten. Center Trevor Thompson left early for the ...

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Big Ten Week 9 picks: Can Penn State beat the Buckeyes twice in a row? - ESPN (blog)
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Big Ten Week 9 picks: Can Penn State beat the Buckeyes twice in a row?
ESPN (blog)
Ultimately, I'm struggling most to answer the question of whether the Buckeyes and their revamped passing game -- 18 touchdowns and no interceptions in the past five games -- will remain productive. I think they'll struggle, and Penn State is too good ...
Saquon Barkley "Excited" To See Buckeye Rookie JK DobbinsScout

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Dot Commentary: Which QB in PSU/OSU matchup would you build around?
Tom Dienhart, BTN.com Senior Writer via Big Ten Network

The BTN.com team debates which QB in this weekend's huge matchup they'd build around.

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Ohio State’s formula for beating Penn State: Run the ball, generate havoc
Chad Peltier via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


This is a championship-level matchup between two elite teams — and the stats are split.

Penn State, even more than Oklahoma, is the game we’ve talked about the most all offseason.

And not just in a simple “revenge!” kind of way — this game has become a bar for where Ohio State is at as a program, for what kind of legacy J.T. Barrett will leave behind*, and whether the offense is actually “fixed.”

This game is a really, really big deal.

The hype for the game is justified, too. Penn State’s AP ranking — second in the country — more or less matches their ranking according to the advanced stats: 2nd in S&P+, 5th in F/+, 3rd in Sagarin, 5th in The Power Rank. It’s a legitimate top-3 or top-5 matchup.

(*If you’re asking me, J.T. Barrett’s legacy as one of Ohio State’s all-time great’s is already assured.)


Ohio State is seemingly a much more talented team than Penn State — +34% blue chip ratio! — but the Nittany Lions have played like an elite team all season. Penn State ranks third in the S&P+ rankings, and while there is a sizable gap between their actual S&P+ margins — 29.2 to 22.1, which is the same difference as between Penn State and 15th-ranked South Florida — it’s easy to see why this may be the best game of the entire season in terms of overall quality of teams.

If you measure team talent solely based on blue chip ratio, then Ohio State is definitely far superior: Ohio State has 63 four- or five-star recruits on its roster, while Penn State has 34. The difference between those (29) is nearly as many as Penn State has in total. However, even without considering equalizers like player development or scheme/playcalling, Penn State’s average recruit has a rating of 87.89, meaning that while there are a lot of three-stars on the roster, a lot of them are near-four star. Ohio State’s average is second in the country at 92.13, but that’s not as sizable a margin as it looks when just comparing blue chip ratios.

Penn State is also significantly more experienced in terms of returning production. Their overall returning production ranking are 27th vs. 72nd.

And on top of their high overall talent, incredible offensive coordinator, and experience, the Nittany Lions also are among the best in the country in turnover margin. That’s a combination that will win you a lot of games.

When Ohio State has the ball


Good news: now we have opponent-adjusted measures for just about everything, including overall success rates and IsoPPP. That means that anywhere you see the “+”, the ranking is opponent-adjusted. I still list the raw success rate percentages as well, for context.

Penn State’s offense gets most of the love because of stars like Saquon Barkley and Trace McSorley. That’s justified. But the less-heralded Nittany Lions defense is also top-10 despite not having many (any?) household names for the average college football fan.

The Penn State defense has four main strengths:

1. The secondary: 8th in passing S&P+, 11th in passing success rate, 5th in passing IsoPPP, 3rd in defensive back havoc rate
2. Creating havoc, sack rate: 7th in overall havoc rate, 6th in defensive line havoc rate, 38th in adjusted sack rate, 22nd in stuff rate.
3. Preventing opponents from finishing drives: 11th in average points allowed by opponent scoring opportunities (3.29)
4. Field position: first overall (opponents’ average starting field position is the 23.7 yard line).

Several of those strengths create especially bad matchups for Ohio State.

But Ohio State also has a critical advantage, too: the offense could — even should — be able to run the ball very effectively.

First, let’s talk about the passing game. Since the loss to Oklahoma, J.T. Barrett has played like one of the top-3ish quarterbacks in the country, going from people calling for him to be benched to him re-entering the Heisman conversation. Kevin Wilson’s playcalling has had a lot to do with this, as have Ohio State’s opponents, but it is undeniable that we’ve seen real improvement in the passing game, regardless of the quality of opposing defenses. J.T. is playing with confidence unlike we’ve seen since the 2014 season.

And the advanced passing stats reflect that. Until this week we’ve had to use passing stats unadjusted for opponent quality, but now passing S&P+ rates the passing attack as the 6th-best in the country. So now they have to justify that opponent-adjusted ranking by facing a truly elite secondary. Two Nittany Lions, Grant Haley and Marcus Allen, have been nominated for the Thorpe award. The team is 20th in average interceptions per game.

The secondary’s job is eased by a solid pass rush as well. You may remember last year’s game, where Barrett was sacked six times -- the good news is that Garrett Sickels and his 2.5 sacks are gone, but Penn State is still 6th in overall DL havoc and 38th in adjusted sack rate this year. Ohio State’s offensive line is ranked 66th in adjusted sack rate.

Isaiah Prince has improved dramatically at right tackle, but Demetrius Knox is still making his second-ever start against a great Penn State defensive line. Knox looked solid against Nebraska, but Nebraska’s defensive line is also just 106th in adjusted sack rate. According to CFB Film Room, the guard spots are the most concerning in pass protection:


So there are two critical questions that the Ohio State offense has to solve. First, can the guards especially hold up in pass protection against a disruptive Penn State defensive front? Second, if Barrett does have time to pass, as Ross Fulton said, “stretch the defense horizontally to exploit the intermediate zones between the run-focused front and three deep defenders”? Can they effectively constrain the Penn State secondary with screens and play action that provide “a vertical hi-lo stretch on the remaining deep zone defenders”, as Fulton again wrote? These concepts have worked extremely well against sub-par competition, but now they must work against elite defenders.

Two more related Penn State strengths: field position and finishing drives. The Penn State’s defense country-leading average starting field position is due in large part to their offense’s ability to move the ball: they rank 22nd in first down rate (84%) and 19th in FEI’s offensive drive success rate, meaning that the Nittany Lions offense rarely puts its defensive in a bad place field position-wise. Then, after forcing opponents to drive an average of 76.3 yards to score a touchdown, they are excellent at forcing field goals instead of allowing touchdowns. Penn State allows an average of just 3.29 points per opponent scoring opportunity, which is a first down inside the opponents’ 40 yard line. When the field gets shorter, Penn State’s defense gets tougher (much like Ohio State’s).

Combine an elite secondary with a disruptive defensive line, that often forces offenses to drive further on average then any other defense, and then limits offenses to field goals... then you’ve got a recipe for a more low-scoring game.

The Ohio State offense does have one key advantage over the Penn State defense, and that’s on the ground. Penn State ranks 50th in opponent-adjusted rushing S&P+. This is where opponent adjustments are key, because while the Nittany Lions are 13th in rushing success rate, allowing just a 33.8% success rate and not more than 3.77 yards per carry in any game this season, they’ve also not faced any great rushing offenses. Michigan found sporadic success with a few big plays, but still averaged just 2.45 yards per carry.

Penn State’s run defense is a little more complicated than just that, though. Even just looking at the opponent-unadjusted numbers, they rank 13th in success rate, 25th in opportunity rate, and 22nd in stuff rate — but 47th in adjusted line yards. This suggests that Penn State makes a significant number of tackles behind the line, but also allows a fair number of successful plays too — especially explosive plays. They rank 30th in rushing IsoPPP, but also 37th in allowing runs of 10+ yards, even against the relatively poor rushing teams they’ve faced.

All of this means that Ohio State should be able to run on Penn State. J.K. Dobbins should pick up a number of explosive runs — and he’s a much different style player than anyone the Buckeyes had last year. Occasionally Ohio State has veered away from its running backs and relied on quarterback runs in big games: against top-15 S&P+ teams in the last three years, Ohio State’s RB/QB run rate is just 1.13. In their four losses, it is 1.01. Dobbins especially should get the ball often, and the Buckeyes should find explosive success relying on him and Weber.

The nightmare scenario is where Penn State’s secondary is able to effectively contain the passing game, allowing the Nittany Lions to commit more defenders to stopping the run, or vice versa, where the defensive line is so disruptive and creates so many negative plays on its own that the secondary gets more help.

But the stats suggest that while the Nittany Lions may get a few tackles for loss, they shouldn’t get many — Ohio State is second in allowing the fewest run stuffs. And they should also rip off a number of 10+ yard runs, too. The strong run game could be the key to Ohio State’s win.

It is true that Penn State hasn’t played any elite offenses. It’s difficult to pick out the best offense they’ve faced, even.

When Penn State has the ball


The Penn State offense gets a lot of deserved love from the national media. Between Saquon Barkley, Trace McSorley, and Joe Morehead’s playcalling, there’s a lot of talent on that side of the ball.

It’s easy to run through their strengths. Barkley averages 8.2 highlight yards per opportunity (meaning he’s very explosive), and is still efficient with a 44.4% opportunity rate. McSorley is an underrated runner, averaging 5.1 yards per carry but equaling Barkley’s opportunity rate. McSorley has improved in his efficiency too, now with a 46% passing success rate (up from 42.4%, and ranked 25th now). This is clearly a top-10 offense. And Ohio State’s secondary still really hasn’t been challenged since the Oklahoma game — the opponent-adjusted metrics for the passing offense have drastically improved, but Ohio State’s pass defense still ranks just 49th in passing S&P+.

But there are some clear weaknesses that the Ohio State should be able to take advantage of:

1. The PSU offensive line: 117th in stuff rate (OSU is 7th in stuff rate), 105th in adjusted sack rate, 50th in adjusted line yards
2. Finishing drives: Penn State averages only 4.66 points per scoring opportunity, which is 45th

Ohio State should really be able to exploit the PSU offense in these two areas, because they rank 5th in finishing drives, allowing just 3.03 points per scoring opportunity on average, 2nd in adjusted line yards, 7th in stuff rate, 7th in adjusted sack rate, and 8th in havoc rate. In short, Ohio State’s defensive line especially should create a ton of negative plays -- that, plus the defense getting more efficient the closer they get to their own endzone — gives the Ohio State defense a blueprint for slowing down the Nittany Lions.

Of course, as multiple coaches have said, Saquon Barkley is a transcendent talent. He rushed for 194 yards against Ohio State as a freshman, then averaged 8.25 yards per carry against the Buckeyes last season. And the Nittany Lions do rank 9th overall in rushing S&P+ and 12th in opportunity rate, meaning that they’re still an elite rushing team. But as you can see with their other offensive line stats, they still frequently allow negative plays. If Ohio State is going to win here, then the Buckeye defense will have to fulfill this expected advantage, stopping Barkley in the backfield while still remaining sound and disciplined.

The big concern for the Ohio State defense is still against the pass. Outside of Denzel Ward, a second shutdown corner still hasn’t emerged, and we’ve seen slot receivers burn both cornerbacks and mismatched linebackers. And Penn State last year, and Indiana and Oklahoma both showed the ability to complete sideline passes in one-on-one coverage, too. This is a real, real concern for Ohio State — probably the most critical area for the Buckeyes to win. Jordan Fuller was effective in the slot against Nebraska, so maybe he’s part of the answer. Ultimately I don’t expect the secondary to shut down the Penn State passing game or the defensive line to completely shut down Barkley — but they have to create enough negative plays to keep the Nittany Lions behind the chains.

The one good thing about the passing game is that Penn State is less explosive than they were last year, down from 4th to 49th in passing IsoPPP. In 2016 they had an explosive pass rate of 23.5% (which is the percentage of 15+ yard passes), but that is down to 21.7% this year. So both the rate and the magnitude of explosive pass plays are down this year.

Saquon Barkley is a big part of the passing game, almost equaling Daesean Hamilton’s team-leading 481 receiving yards despite receiving six fewer targets. Barkley vs. Jerome Baker (or whoever else is responsible for him in coverage) is an absolutely key matchup. Hamilton averages 17.2 yards per catch too, so he’s still a major explosive threat.

One more note on the offense — a lot has been made about Penn State’s fast starts. In fact, getting out to an early commanding lead over Michigan last week had a huge effect on the game. But in terms of efficiency, Penn State’s offense is excellent for the entire game. They rank 11th in first quarter offensive S&P+, but are 21st, 16th, and 3rd in S&P+ in the other three quarters. Interestingly enough, the defense takes a big dip in the fourth quarter, going from an average of 14th in the first three quarters to 62nd in the fourth. My guess is that could be due to defensive depth as players get tired. But that’s just a guess.

Intangible factors


There are also a few less-quantifiable factors that could affect the game. I don’t think any/all of these are enough to significantly affect the game’s outcome either way, but they might nudge either team up or down within their possible range of performances:

1. Revenge factor for Ohio State
2. PSU coming off big White Out win
3. OSU’s bye week and extra prep time
4. Alternate uniforms

I don’t know if these will have any effect at all, or if they do, who they benefit necessarily (I’d guess they’d slightly benefit Ohio State if they have any impact), but I thought they were worth mentioning nonetheless.

Takeaways


So if you want the tl;dr, here are the key matchups that should determine the game:

1. Ohio State’s pass defense is just 38th in passing S&P+, against the 9th-ranked passing S&P+ offense. Ohio State’s second corner and slot coverage have been notable weak points this season, and McSorley has gotten even more efficient (but also less explosive).
2. But Ohio State should be able to create a lot of negative plays, both in run stuffs (7th vs. 117th) and sacks (7th vs. 105th).
3. Another huge key will be taking advantage of Penn State’s relative weakness against the run (5th vs. 50th in rushing S&P+). Dobbins has to have an explosive game with more than 12 carries.
4. The little things will matter a lot: turning Penn State scoring opportunities into field goals instead of touchdowns (5th vs. 45th in finishing drives, in OSU’s favor), field position (Penn State is 1st compared to OSU at 36th in offensive average field position), and turnovers always make a huge difference. I haven’t really discussed turnovers here, but obviously any turnovers could significantly swing the game either way -- and Penn State has a slight advantage in average turnover margin per game.

Picks

• S&P+: Ohio State 33.2, Penn State 23.5, 71.1% win probability
• F/+: Ohio State by 3, 56.8% win probability
• Adj. S&P+: Ohio State by 8.6, 69% win probability
• Power Rank: Penn State by 1.6, 45% win probability
• My pick: Ohio State 31, Penn State 27

As you can see, the stats are split on predictions. S&P+ is high on the Buckeyes, FEI much less so, and Power Rank favors the Nittany Lions. I fall somewhere in the middle, but there’s also a part of me that, like Doug Lesmerises said on BuckeyeTalk (listen if you’re not already!), thinks that Ohio State rolls.

In the distribution of possible game outcomes, I think there are a fairly wide range of outcomes with a decent likelihood — most likely is a touchdown or so Buckeye win, and then nearly equal chances of a narrow Ohio State win or narrow Penn State win, and then much less likely is a Penn State win by more than 10 points or so.

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Buckeyes aim for payback when Penn State visits Horseshoe - Minneapolis Star Tribune
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Buckeyes aim for payback when Penn State visits Horseshoe
Minneapolis Star Tribune
The Buckeyes have had this one circled on their calendars since Grant Haley — he of the 60-yard blocked field goal return — and an unranked Penn State beat them 24-21 in Happy Valley last year when they were ranked second. Ohio State has amassed ...
2017 Buckeyes are top scoring team in Ohio State history; will it stick ...cleveland.com
Ohio State vs. Penn State: Take the favored BuckeyesNew York Post
Ohio State football: Buckeyes have best Big Ten odds, list of prospects visiting growsLandof10.com
Black Shoe Diaries -ESPN
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