I am not sure this is necessarily the correct form to post this, but what the heck. It concerns two different approaches to recruiting, I suppose, even if it's more about how each of Ohio State's and Michigan's rosters sit as of signing day 2018. Also, unlike
@LordJeffBuck and others, my familiarity with the particulars of how 247 does their rankings, and so on, is not nearly as high. I don't necessarily know what I am supposed to make of a recruit having a .9003 rating. I just know, relative to it's own system of rating players, .9003 is higher than .9002. I know that the difference between being rated .9003 and .9002 isn't all that much, but being rated .9003 is an indication that you're probably a more talented player (or have a higher upside, I suppose) than a player rated, say, .8750. Along this same vein, I think it's pretty well established at this point that ratings don't
always translate. We all know that a kid like James Laurinaitis - rated a 3 star at .8333 and 554th in the Nation overall in the class of 2005 - can end up being a 3 time All-American and Butkus Award winner while a surefire 5 star like, say, Fred Rouse (.9980 #5 national rank) can end up not living up to the talent they displayed in earning the scores in the first place. There are, as we know, many factors that go into that beyond a simple accounting of decimal places and star counts. Coaching, attitude, depth charts and quite a few other things play roles that aren't quantified by any system, much less 247's. Still, 247's system counts for something, and relative to itself, it can be generally relied upon to give us some indication about talent level(s), even if it's not a "fail safe" system.
With that said, I decided to take a look at the rosters of Ohio State and Michigan as of today, assuming that all the signees do, in fact, enroll this fall. A couple of notes. First, I am not at all able to do pretty charts like LordJeff, and so, while I'd love to post ALL the data in my dandy spreadsheet for your own review, I'm not going to be able to do that. Second, as most readers of this board are surely aware, Ohio State (and Michigan, for that matter) is currently over-signed. Of course this means that the information I am going to give today is not entirely accurate in as much as we know there will have to be attrition. Still, I doubt that numbers will change that significantly because, frankly, the differences in the respective rosters is, as we will see, staggering. Third, I am not that close a follower of all things recruiting, and I sure as heck am not the go to guy when it comes to the particulars of scUM's roster. Compounding this issue is Haurbaugh's reluctance to release a roster, much less is there an easy place for a relative hobbiest like myself to find a list of scholarship athletes. I took a look at 247's Michigan Roster and was excited as I thought it may be easier than I feared... and then I realized it had 137 names on it. 137! That's a lot of walk-ons. I digress. Fourth, while I know which Defensive Linemen at Ohio State are DTs and which are DEs, or which DBs are CBs and which are SS or FS, I don't know that about Michigan's players. I made a half-hearted attempt to figure that out, but decided I just didn't want to devote the time to figuring it out.
On to the numbers... and some comments. (All numbers are from 247's composite rankings)
Each roster, as it sits today, has 89 players. When I compiled Michigan's roster, I used some of their sites to exclude known transfers out, and I did include Shea Patterson's transfer in. Michigan also has two players listed as scholarship athletes who had no 247 ratings. It would appear to me each was a walk-on who had been awarded a scholarship. Where those player's lack of a rating makes some kind of difference, I've taken some care to mention it. I have no idea if they will be awarded a scholarship in 2018. My guess is probably not, since Michigan is over-signed.
When Ohio State inked Offensive Lineman Nicholas Petit-Frere yesterday, he became our second highest rated recruit on the roster, just behind Defensive End Nick Bosa .9965 to NPF's .9963. However, as highest rated players on either roster goes, both Petit-Frere and Bosa are behind Michigan's Rashan Gary (1.000) and the incoming Shea Patterson (.9982). As you will read, that pretty much ends the good news for Michigan. Which is to say, if you take a listing of each roster and each player's 247 composite rating, only Gary and Patterson rate higher than their Ohio State counterpart, in terms of overall composite rating regardless of position. I'll add some perspective on this....
Ohio State's lowest rated player is Long Snapper Liam McCullough, who checks in at .7828. Meanwhile, Michigan's lowest rated player (not counting the aforementioned unrated scUMmers (DB Jordan Glasgow and FB Joe Beeducci, by the way)) is Punter Brad Robbins .7591. Alright, sure... a LS and a P bring up the end of the roster. No surprise there. Well, consider this: Ohio State's 3 lowest roster players are all specialists. McCullough, K Sean Nuernberger (.8296) and K Blake Haubeil (.8321). Haubeil, as you may recall, was the #2 kicker in his class. Anyway, as kickers go he's behind sleep over find, Quinn Nordin and his .8563 rating. OK, I suppose that's some more good news for Michigan, but the wins for them on this analysis are already running thin.
To the point, the lowest rated non specialist on Ohio State's roster is Defensive Tackle Devon Hamilton at .8457. Hamilton is above no less than 5 Michigan players who are themselves not specialists or a walk on, unrated player (DL Dwumfour, LB Gill, OL Runyan, WR Bell and OL Ulizio). Put another way, Hamilton would be the 82nd "best" player on Michigan's roster (Best is in quotes not as a slight, but instead because - as noted above - much more goes into a player's skill than his 247 ranking, I just don't want to have to find the right word in any exacting way).
In fact, when we compare where certain players off of each roster would land on the other team's roster, it becomes apparent which school has the more talented group. (again, talent as measured by 247's rankings, nothing more) For example, Punter Dru Chrisman, Ohio State's 83rd player, would be Michigan's 76th best player. But, seriously, enough about specialists. Let's take a look at Ohio State's Gavin Cupp, a reserve O-Lineman. He scores a .8791 at 247 and is Ohio State's 73rd rated player. If he were wearing a rake on his helmet next season, he'd be their 55th best player. That is to say, he'd be a full 18 spots higher on their roster in terms of overall talent rating. And, the truth is, I didn't just pick Mr. Cupp for any random reason. See, when you include the walk-ons, Gavin Cupp would fall just below Michigan's average player who would rate .8806. Incidentally, newly minted WR Chris Olave (.8875) would be an above average player for Michigan in terms of ranking, and the 51st best overall, while checking in as Ohio State's 72nd most talented.
I can't really decide if it's fair to include the NRs from the walk-ons, though, when doing these calculations. On the one hand, they are scholarship players and they should therefore have to count in some way. But, then, they surely rate higher than the zero my calculation has afforded them. So, what happens if we take a look at Michigan's average when they're not counted. And, why don't we just throw out the specialists too. I think it's safe to say they're evaluated in a different way altogether (I mean, Liam is a heck of a long snapper. He's a vital component of the team, very important.... he's a scholarship LS for goodness sake... and he's not even a .8000?) Well, it's a bit of a jump, as the average player jumps to a score of .9031. That would land the average Michigan player firmly between Ohio State's 64th best player, QB Joe Burrow (.9003) and 63rd rated Terry McLaurin (.9051). Conversely, Mr. Burrow would be the 38th best player, and McLaurin the 37th on Michigan's roster.
Ohio State's average player.... let me say that again, Ohio State's
average player would score a .9302. That hypothetical Buckeye (Think of a guy like #50 Dallas Gant .9322 or #51 Antwaun Jackson .9290) would be the 26th best player on Michigan's roster. If you exclude the specialists, Ohio State's average goes up slightly to .9352 (#48 KJ Hill .9330 or #47 Parris Campbell .9389); good enough to best Mustapha Muhammad (.9318) for 24th best, but not quite as good as 23 Nico Collins and his .9378.
A couple other notables. While Gary and Patterson would be the best players on either roster, Michigan's 3rd best player, WR Donovan People-Jones would be Ohio State's 6th best player. Though, good news for Michigan, he would still be the best rated WR on either roster. In fact, Ohio State has 6 players rated .9900 or higher, Shaun Wade, Baron Browning, Jeffrey Okusah, Chase Young, Bosa and Petit-Frere. Michigan? Well, just the three I've already talked about; Gary, Patterson and Peoples-Jones. But, it really seems to be the top-middle of the roster where Ohio State wins the talent disparity race by the widest margins. Michigan's 10th best player, for example, is Drew Singleton .9626. He'd be 30 on Ohio State's roster, a hair behind #29 RB Mike Weber .9627, and ahead of 2018 signee Brian Snead .9607. Before moving on to some position group discussion, consider also the likes of Michigan's #32 Grant Newsome .9129, #34 Deron Irving-Bey .9072, #39 Donovan Jeter .8971, #40 Ryan Hays .8958 and #41 Carlo Kemp .8954. If each of those guys were Ohio State players, they'd find themselves 29 spots lower on the 'talent roster' - the biggest moves of any players backwards. Ohio State's #68 Cam Brown and #69 Matthew Baldwin, conversely, make the same move
forward on Michigan's roster moving up to 39 and 40 respectively.
I could go on. I really wish I knew how to do pretty charts. I did look at one of LJB's posts to see how hard it would be... it looked like a lot of coding that I just didn't want to learn. Point is, I really wish you could all see the stark contrast between rosters that I have in this excel spreadsheet of mine. But, it is what it is. I can still break down position groups for you, and so I will.
OK, let's see.. the good news for Michigan was; 1 - top two players over all are on Michigan's roster. 2 - by extension, then, they then also have the best DL and QB on either club. 3 - I already mentioned DPJ is the top WR on either team. 4 - they have a heck of a place kicker, the sort of kicker you want to spend the night with to be sure to ink him, in fact, and.. I don't know what else. I don't think I'm missing anything from above. So, without further ado, the final good news for Michigan. Not only do they have the top QB at either school in Shea Patterson, they have the more talented QB room as well. Each school has 4 QBs and Michigan's average QB is rated .9576. I suppose I should temper the excitement the weasels should be feeling with the reminder that Patterson hasn't officially been given the green light to play in 2018, but even if he doesn't get the NCAA clearance needed, the room will still come in with a .9440 average rating to Ohio State's .9315. So, let's have a nice golf clap for Michigan's QB room. And... let's also remember that part of the caveat above was with respect to coaching... which is to say, talent is nice. To be sure, talent is
really nice to have. But, then you do have to develop that talent. Have you seen Michigan's QB play of late?
Let's move on...
When it comes to Offensive Lines, the Buckeyes sport an average of .9318 for each of it's 15 roster players. Michigan? .9051 for it's 14 players. The Buckeyes have the top two linemen, in fact (Petit-Frere, .9963 and 2017 recruit Red Shirt FR; Wyatt Davis .9876). Actually, the Buckeyes have 7 of the top 10 linemen in terms of 247 rating, and that doesn't include 2 year starter Michael Jordan (13th rated O-Lineman, 44th Buckeye (and 22nd Wolverine) overall, .9411) For those of you keeping score at home, the Wolverines make up the bottom 3 spots in terms of O-Linemen only, and 6 of the last 10, actually. Ohio's least rated O-Lineman is Brady Taylor at .8618. He'd be 11th if he wore the rival colors... which reminds me...
Blue... So, the Buckeyes picked up a Wide Receiver named L'Christian Smith. Smith, it seems, has a nickname, and that name is... Blue :sad trombone: Anyway, his score is .9454. Guess who he ties on the 247 talent rating system. I'll wait.
If you guessed Tarik Black, well, you're absolutely correct. Black proved to be one of the Maize and Blue's top WR before an injury ended his season. In terms of talent as rated by 247, Black was 3rd on the roster behind DPJ and Kekoa Crawford, who came in just in front of Black at .9455. Good news for Ohio State, right? We just got a guy who would start for Michigan, all things being equal. Well, sadly for Mr. Smith he's behind 4 Buckeyes; Austin Mack .9649, Johnnie Dixon .9644, fellow 2018 signee Kamryn Babb .9629 and Binjimen Victor .9546. I suppose it could have been harder for L'Christian had Trevon Grimes (.9806) stuck around. I digress. It turns out that Zach Smith's much maligned WR room wins the talent battle where his 12 WRs average a .9276 while Michigan's 8 guys tally a respectable .9143. As I was writing this, I did find at least one other piece of good news for scUM. At nearly every position group, and including WR, they have the least talented player and often times it's more than just a single guy. But, I failed to mention 2018 QB Matthew Baldwin (.8958) is the worst QB on either roster according to the ratings. I don't know... having typed that out, it seems bitter sweet for them, at best.
Now, we know that scUM want's to play manball, so they probably have a great RB room. Well, not really. Here, it's a bit difficult to quantify because of the differences between OSU and UM's scheme. For example, and I suppose another plus for them, is they have the best FB on either team. In fact, they have the best 3 FBs, and one of them happens to be a walk on, if you can believe it! Meanwhile, players like Jaelen Gill .9831 and Demario McCall .9767 are two of the top three kids in the respective RB rooms (Along with JK Dobbins, the best rated true RB, .9791) though, as we know, they're not really straight up RB's per se. Michigan does seem to recruit the occasional "Athlete" as well, and I have at least two of them listed here in Ben VanSumeren .8709 and Michael Barrett .8635, the 13th and 14th most talented guys in both RB rooms, and 3rd and 4th best ATHs on either squad, albeit out of 4 total players considered. Of course, Barrett, I am told, looks like a Thicc Curtis Samuel, and he may even end up on the other side of the ball where he is, I am informed, not that much unlike Eric Berry. Time will tell.
Anyway, as you might expect, being that manball is the way they want to go, Michi.... wait.. no, Ohio State, it seems, dominates this position group. The Wolverines best RB, again, in terms of 247 talent and not necessarily commitment to get better, is former Ohio State commit Kareem Walker .9505. Walker is ahead of both Antonio Williams .9286 and the incoming Master Teague .9132. But, he is behind everyone else on the Ohio State roster, though again, at the front of the talent scale in his room, ahead of 11 guys, or 10 if the walk on doesn't count. I'll break it down this way:
Ohio State has 7 guys in the RB room, 5 of whom are running backs and 2 of whom are manning the Perc... err.. Curtis Samuel Position. The average talent level in the room is a robust .9577. That's .9489 for running backs and .9799 for ATH. Michigan, by contrast boasts a room of 12 guys, who average .8026. Again, though, one of those guys is a walk on, so excluding him, they jump up to a ... well... less than impressive, considering the styles of play, .8756. Pure RBs for average .8850. Fullbacks (excluding the walk on) go .8509 and ATH's weigh in at .8672. Look, I don't get paid upwards of 7 Million a year, but I don't think that's how you draw up "manball" on the recruiting dry erase board.
EDIT: As noted by LJB below, things are worse for Manball U in the RB room than the above analysis indicates. In fact, removing Walker results in all of Ohio State's guys being in front of every Michigan back. I am sure this will be shown when LJB gets to the individual position group charts.
You'd also expect Michigan to have better TEs, since Ohio State has a long history of under utilizing them. And if you expected that, by now you'd surely know you'd be wrong. The Buckeyes have the top two guys, the incoming Jeremey Ruckert .9810 and Jake Hausmann .9439. The next two are Wolverines, in Mustapha Muhammad .9318 and Zach Gentry .9248. Then, it's Luke Farrell .9233 and then 4 Wolverines, led by legacy Tyrone Wheatley Jr - a late flip, when Harbaugh hired his dad to be on the staff back in 2015 (though some might think it was an unpublished letter from Harbaugh's own son (allegedly) Jay who wooed him with the reasoning that "both of our dad's coach here, how cool is that!") - and his .8953. As rooms go, Michigan has 7 rostered TEs averaging .8922. Ohio State has 4 (the last being former DE recruit Rashod Berry .8568) averaging .9263
D-Line... Like O-Line, you need to have talent in the trenches to compete at the highest levels. We know about Rashan Gary. But, the next three most talented guys are Buckeyes. Boas .9965, Chase Young .9957 and the #1 DT in 2018 Taron Vincent .9884. The Buckeyes has 9 of the top 12 guys, and that doesn't include #1 JUCO DT Antwaun Jackson, if you can believe that! As it is, the Buckeyes and the Wolverines both sport 17 D-Line guys. Ohio State's average is .9400 Michigan comes in at .9095. Let's see... an average on .9095.... Remember Malik Barrow? He's rated at .8990 when healthy, and rates ahead of 9 Wolverines, including Chase Winovich (.8937) who has certainly played well for them.... even if he did get mauled by a true Freshman (Thayer Munford .8985... wait a second... that's just above Winovich... maybe it wasn't such a shock) on JT Barrett's 21 yard touchdown run in the 2017 edition of The Game (Aren't we glad
that guy is finally gone. Sheesh). Just as a note, Ohio State's offensive line has a talent average of .9318 and Michigan's D line .9095. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes D-Line comes in at .9400 to Michigan's .9051 O-Line. Add in Mickey Mariotti and it's really no wonder why the Buckeyes wore the Wolverines down and out-gained them 226 to 100 on the ground en route to yet another victory in the series. "Manball," indeed.
Ohio State boasts the top 4 Linebackers, lead by Baron Browning and his .9940 rating. The Wolverines room is lead by Drew Singleton and his .9626, good enough for 5th had he been a Buckeye. All in all, Michigan has 9 Linebackers who average .9012 while the Buckeyes have 11 guys who average .9359. The Buckeyes second worst, just behind Michigan's Devin Bush (.8951) LB is Tuf Borland .8933, who is ahead of 5 guys total, one of whom is his own teammate Malik Harrison .8568, himself still ahead of two Michigan guys.
And finally... defensive backs. You may have noticed that the Buckeyes have not only been putting a ton of DBs into the league, but they've also been recruiting the heck out of the position. Now, with Kerry Coombs off to the NFL, we may see something different, but I'd observe, as good as Coombs was at planting flags and coaching up players, Ohio State has been DB U for quite a while now. I guess I'd probably point to Shawn Springs and Ty Howard back in the mid 90s, but some of our readers might think me not mentioning Jack Tatum is a bit of a mistake. In any case, the DB room....
Like the LB room, the top 4 guys are Buckeyes. Okudah .9955 and Wade .9904 are top 10 across both rosters, let alone just DBs, while the hard hitting Tyreke Johnson .9876 comes in to join them and Isaiah Pryor and his .9712 talent. Behind those guys, at 5, is David Long for scUM at .9675. Seven of the top 10 DBs are Buckeyes, including incoming Josh Proctor .9640, Kendall Sheffield .9438, and Brendon White .9421. Noticeably missing is FS Jordan Fuller, who was rated .9403 - good enough for 11th across both rosters, or Damon Arnette, who at .8596 checks in as Ohio State's second least talented DB according to 247. Fuller would be 4th on Michigan's, by the way, but is just 7th over all in the room for the Bucks. And, in what might be the last piece of good news for Michigan, I just noticed the other walk on is the lowest rated DB, Jordan Glasgow, with no rating at all, and below - therefore - Jahsen Wint and his .8485. Of course, I don't know what Glasgow's rating might have been, but I do know he was in the 2 deep for scUM, and Wint... well.. he wasn't. Overall, the Buckeyes win the room convincingly .9313 to .7867. Well, that .7867 does include the zero rated walk on, but if we take him out, put both rooms at 15 guys, the Buckeyes still dominate by nearly a full point, .9313 to .8391.
As I said above, there's a lot more to evaluating a player and a team than looking at the composite rankings of 247. Highly talented guys flop, lower rated guys end up first round draft choices. But, talent is important, and talent ratings aren't pure rubbish. They do inform us on some level, even if it is inexact. Of course, one of the factors not found in a 247 talent ranking is a player's drive. Urban has said he wants guys who will choke you over a game of checkers. And, he pretty much gets exactly that. Which is to say, not only are the supremely talented, they also come with a work ethic and a drive to be better than average. As Urban said "We don't want to coach average"
On the other side of the northern boarder, they're planning their next field trip to Europe. There are some good players up there, to be sure. But, I'm not at all convinced Harbaugh, the "Michigan Man" that he is, after all, hasn't brought with him the same problem that cost several coaches before him..... That problem? The attitude that simply getting to Michigan is enough. After that, enjoy the country club atmosphere. Oh.. and again.. pack a bag, we're going to Paris!
TL;DR - The Buckeyes have an unworldly amount of talent, and compared to Michigan .... well, Michigan fan had better hope the coaching staff is everything they thought it was with the Xs and Os and player development. (Hint: It isn't)
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