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Eastern Illinois at Ohio State, Nov 16th, 7pm EST, BTN

one more cupcake before they head out to Maui.

Eastern Illinois Panthers (0-3) at Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0)

Columbus, Ohio; Wednesday, 7 p.m. EST

BOTTOM LINE: Eastern Illinois heads into the matchup with Ohio State after losing three games in a row.

Ohio State went 13-3 at home last season while going 20-12 overall. The Buckeyes shot 47.1% from the field and 36.5% from 3-point range last season.

Eastern Illinois finished 5-26 overall with a 1-16 record on the road a season ago. The Panthers averaged 56.3 points per game while shooting 39.8% from the field and 32.6% from deep last season.

https://wtop.com/ncaa-basketball/2022/11/eastern-illinois-faces-ohio-state-on-3-game-skid/

Mid-November Heisman Race Update

Heisman Race Update

At THIS LINK you will find a previous comparison that shows quite vividly C.J. Stroud's superiority to other top FBS quarterbacks to this point in the season. Below is a continuation of that comparison with an update to the season stats.

HERE you will find a brief glossary of the terms used herein. These terms are also explained within this post, but in future weeks the explanations will be elided. We will simply include links to the glossary.

The Heisman race has been expanded to include a couple of Pac 12 quarterbacks who a certain 4-letter network has been plugging for the Heisman. The only member of the top 8 in Passing Efficiency that is excluded here is Kurtis Rourke of the Ohio Bobcats, as no one is likely to mention his name for the Heisman at any point, though they bring up Caleb Williams (who is ranked below him) with every third breath. The only QB outside of the top 8 that is included here is J.J. McCarthy, who is 18th in passing efficiency according to the NCAA. It is notable that his DPE is higher than that of the most recent media darling, Bo Nix. Passing efficiency shown here might be different than you'll see elsewhere as games against FCS teams have been excluded.

The columns in the following table can be interpreted as follows:

Quarterback: The quarterback to whom the numbers in that row apply. Some of you may have pieced that together for yourselves, or at least remembered it from last week.

PE vs FBS: Pass Efficiency in FBS games only

DPE: Differential Pass Efficiency - Ratio of your PE to your opponents' average PED

Rigidity: A number that indicates how well a quarterback maintains performance against the best competition. Positive numbers indicate better performance against better competition where as negative numbers are indicative of bullies who pad stats against lesser competition. Significant improvements were made to the rigidity calculation this week, making it more accurate (tedious details elided).

Composite PED: All passing stats for all opponents were compiled into one pass efficiency number. Composite PED is where that pass efficiency would land among FBS teams in this week's Pass Efficiency Defense (PED) rankings.
QuarterbackPE vs FBSQB's DPERigidityComposite PED
C.J. Stroud188.1591.53511.54339
Hendon Hooker178.9761.497-4.67226
Drake Maye177.6581.41069.07549
Grayson McCall174.7211.327-11.44076
Caleb Williams166.4151.225-17.00790
J.J. McCarthy157.6041.224-36.70663
Max Duggan163.4611.20932.64589
Bo Nix169.1971.201-38.923102

This analysis is 100% objective. When other teams are superior, DSA says so (see Georgia's DSC if you doubt it). In this case though, Buckeye Planet stats give us very good reason to believe that the Buckeye Quarterback is the best there is in this sport. No scarlet colored glasses, just raw, unbiased numbers that have a ton of relevant context baked into them. With three weeks left in this contest, we can honestly say "C.J. Stroud for Heisman: Not Because He's a Buckeye; Because He Deserves It"

SG Jamaal Brown (B1G Champion, R.I.P.)

former Buckeye bballer Jamaal Brown passed away over the weekend/...

NOVEMBER 14, 2022
FORMER CAPTAIN JAMAAL BROWN PASSES AWAY

COLUMBUS, Ohio – Ohio State men’s basketball is saddened by the news that former captain Jamaal Brown has passed away at his home in Texas over the weekend. Brown was 52.

The Arlington, Texas native appeared in 127 games, starting 126 of those games, from 1988-92. A floor leader, Brown averaged 9.0 points per game and scored 1,139 points in his career. He led the Buckeyes to back-to-back Big Ten titles in 1991 and 1992 and served as a team captain during his senior season in 1992. Brown made a team-high 34 three-pointers in 1991 and was second behind Jim Jackson in 1992 with 41 threes.

The Buckeyes made three NCAA Tournament appearances during Brown’s four seasons, including a Sweet 16 appearance in 1991 and an Elite Eight appearance in 1992. Known as the team’s best defender, he typically drew the opposition’s best player. In the NCAA Second Round game against Georgia Tech in 1991, Brown frustrated All-American Kenny Anderson into an 8-for-28 shooting performance which helped the Buckeyes to a 65-61 victory. The highlight of his career was a career-high 29-point effort in leading Ohio State to a 93-85 victory over No. 3 Indiana inside Assembly Hall in January of 1991.

Brown was a communications major who frequently made stops at local elementary schools talking to students about life and basketball and the dangers of drug use. Teammate and fellow captain Tony White described Brown as “a guy who knew how to play the game, didn’t make a whole lot of mistakes, made jump shots, was a physical presence and a great defender.” Brown was from Arlington, Texas and attended Sam Houston High School where he earned All-State honors in both track and basketball. During his senior season, he was the MVP of the Texas All-Star Game and then set the school record by clearing 6-10 in the high jump.

https://ohiostatebuckeyes.com/former-captain-jamaal-brown-passes-away/

Scenarios for Final 2022 CFP Rankings

OK, this attempts to predict how the committee will rank teams at the end of the year. It does NOT try to predict the outcomes of the remaining games or which scenarios will actually occur. But if you have a scenario in mind that includes all the results, scrolling the numbered list from top down until you find teams that match your results will find what I'm guessing will be the 4 seeds, in order.

I am listing the resumes of each team based on the following criteria: A good win is against an FBS team with no more than 3 losses, a close win is any game within 8 points, overtime games are indicated, and large margins of victory are listed if the opponent is a ‘good’ team as previously defined. Sorry, the # of close wins for UNC messes up my formatting.

The only current 2-loss teams included are LSU and Alabama. The only current 1-loss team excluded is Coastal Carolina.


TeamRemaining gamesGood WinsLossesOther Close wins
Georgia@Ky, Ga Tech, LSUOregon(+46), Tenn - Mizzou
tOSU@Md, TTUN, CCGND, @Penn St - -
TTUNIllini, @ tOSU, no CCGPenn St - Maryland
TCU@Baylor, Ia St, CCGOkla St(OT), Kans St - @SMU, Kans, @Tex
Tennessee@S. Car., @Vandy@LSU(+27), Bama@Georgia(-14)@Pitt(OT), Fla
USC@UCLA, ND, CCG@Oregon St(+3)@Utah(-1)Arizona, Cal
LSUUAB, @aTm, UGAMiss(+25), Bama(OT)FSU(-1), Tenn(-27)@Aub, @Ark
ClemsonMiaFL, S. Car., @UNC@Fla St(+6)@ND(-21)@Wake(OT), Syr(+6)
AlabamaAustin Peay, AuburnOle Miss(+6)@Tenn(-3), @LSU(OT)@Tex(+1), aTm(+4)
TeamRemaining gamesGood WinsLossesOther Close wins
N. CarolinaGa Tech, NC St, Clemson@Duke(+3)ND(-13)@AppSt(+2), @GaSt(+7), @MiaFL(+3), @Va(+3), @Wake(+2)
I had to avoid scenarios which are extremely unlikely, like Georgia beating LSU but losing to both Ky and Ga Tech, or tOSU winning The Game but losing both at Maryland and in the CCG.

NOTE - most scenarios cannot co-exist, so the first 4 teams and Tennessee are believed to control their own destiny. And UGA is believed to be in the top-4 if they beat Ky and Ga Tech, even if they lose to LSU.

#01. UGA undefeated thru CCG
#02. tOSU undefeated thru CCG
#03. TTUN undefeated thru CCG (mutually exclusive with #02)
#04. TCU undefeated thru CCG
#05. UGA with 1 loss, even if it’s to LSU in CCG (head-to-head over Tenn)
#06. Tenn wins out, no CCG
#07. tOSU 1-loss to Md, wins CCG
#08. TTUN 1-loss to Illini, wins CCG
#09. USC wins out over UCLA, ND, and CCG (possible revenge over Utah)
#10. LSU wins out with CCG over UGA
#11. tOSU with 1-loss and no CCG win
#12. TTUN with 1 loss and no CCG win
#13. Clemson wins out with CCG over UNC
#14. Bama wins out, has 2 losses, no CCG
#15. TCU with a loss but a CCG win
#15. UNC wins out with CCG win over Clemson
#16. TCU with 1 loss in the CCG

Alabama’s can only end up with one good win, over Ole Miss, who has no good wins of their own. They’re toast.

USC need to win out and have TCU lose, I think they’d end up ahead of every 1-loss non conference champion except Tennessee.

I think Georgia is the only team that could pick up a loss and still be reasonably safe to get in.

2026 tOSU Recruiting Discussion

  • Georgia 2026 wide receiver Aaron Gregory: “The game atmosphere from yesterday was great. Nothing like The Ohio State. I had a great visit. I made some great connections with the wide receiver coach Brian Hartline and the safety coach Perry Eliano. They liked my size and potential, future visits are definitely in the works. Great hospitality, enjoyed being able to watch practice and learn from a great group of players and coaches.”
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio...owing-the-buckeyes-56-14-victory-over-indiana

Week 12 Games Discussion

It’s don’t-look-ahead week, just ahead of so many rivalry games.

Week 12

Tuesday, Nov. 15

Bowling Green at Toledo | 7 p.m. | ESPNU
Ohio at Ball State | 7 p.m. | ESPN2

Wednesday, Nov. 16

Eastern Michigan at Kent State | 6 p.m. | ESPN2
Miami (Ohio) at Northern Illinois | 7 p.m. | CBSSN
Western Michigan at Central Michigan | 9 p.m. | ESPNU

Thursday, Nov. 17

SE Louisiana at Nicholls | 7 p.m. | ESPN+
SMU at Tulane | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

Friday, Nov. 18

South Florida at Tulsa | 9 p.m. | ESPN2
San Diego State at New Mexico | 9:45 p.m. | FS1

Saturday, Nov. 19

Navy at UCF | 11 a.m. | ESPN2
Illinois at Michigan | 12 p.m. | ABC
Wisconsin at Nebraska | 12 p.m. | ESPN
TCU at Baylor | 12 p.m. | FOX
Northwestern at Purdue | 12 p.m. | FS1
Austin Peay at Alabama | 12 p.m. | ESPN+/SECN+
Louisiana at Florida State | 12 p.m. | ESPN3
East Tennessee State at Mississippi State | 12 p.m. | ESPN+/SECN+
UMass at Texas A&M | 12 p.m. | ESPN+/SECN+
Florida at Vanderbilt | 12 p.m. | SEC Network
Indiana at Michigan State | 12 p.m. | Big Ten Network
UConn at Army | 12 p.m. | CBSSN
Virginia Tech at Liberty | 12 p.m. | ESPN+
Duke at Pitt | 12 p.m. | ACC Network
UTSA at Rice | 1 p.m. | ESPN+

Washington State at Arizona | 2 p.m. | Pac-12 Networks
Kansas State at West Virginia | 2 p.m. | Big 12 Now
North Alabama at Memphis | 2 p.m. | ESPN+
Georgia State at James Madison | 2 p.m. | ESPN+
Houston at East Carolina | 2 p.m. | ESPN+
Oregon State at Arizona State | 2:15 p.m. | ESPN2
Boston College at Notre Dame | 2:30 p.m. | NBC/Peacock
Old Dominion at Appalachian State | 2:30 p.m. | ESPN+

Georgia at Kentucky | 3:30 p.m. | CBS

Ohio State at Maryland | 3:30 p.m. | ABC
Miami (Fla.) at Clemson | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN
Penn State at Rutgers | 3:30 p.m. | Big Ten Network
NC State at Louisville | 3:30 p.m. | ACC Network
Texas at Kansas | 3:30 p.m. | FS1
Coastal Carolina at Virginia | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN3
Akron at Buffalo | 3:30 p.m. | CBSSN
Utah Tech at BYU | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN3
South Alabama at Southern Miss | 3:30 p.m. | NFL Network
UL Monroe at Troy | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Charlotte | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN3
Florida Atlantic at Middle Tennessee | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN+
Iowa at Minnesota | 4 p.m. | FOX
Western Kentucky at Auburn | 4 p.m. | SEC Network
Cincinnati at Temple | 4 p.m. | ESPNU
FIU at UTEP | 4 p.m. | ESPN+

Arkansas State at Texas State | 5 p.m. | ESPN3
Georgia Tech at North Carolina | 5:30 p.m. | ESPN2
Stanford at Cal | 5:30 p.m. | Pac-12 Networks
Marshall at Georgia Southern | 6 p.m. | ESPN+
Ole Miss at Arkansas | 6:30 p.m. | SEC Network
Tennessee at South Carolina | 7 p.m. | ESPN
Texas Tech at Iowa State | 7 p.m. | FS1
Boise State at Wyoming | 7 p.m. | CBSSN
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma | 7:30 p.m. | ABC
New Mexico State at Missouri | 7:30 p.m. | ESPNU
USC at UCLA | 8 p.m. | FOX
Syracuse at Wake Forest | 8 p.m. | ACC Network

UAB at LSU | 9 p.m. | ESPN2

Colorado at Washington | 9 p.m. | Pac-12 Networks
Colorado State at Air Force | 9 p.m. | FS2
San Jose State at Utah State | 9:45 | FS1
Utah at Oregon | 10:30 p.m. | ESPN
Fresno State at Nevada | 10:30 p.m. | CBSSN
UNLV at Hawai'i | 11 p.m. | Spectrum Sports PPV

  • Locked
Week 12 Games

It’s don’t-look-ahead week, just ahead of so many rivalry games.

Week 12

Tuesday, Nov. 15

Bowling Green at Toledo | 7 p.m. | ESPNU
Ohio at Ball State | 7 p.m. | ESPN2

Wednesday, Nov. 16

Eastern Michigan at Kent State | 6 p.m. | ESPN2
Miami (Ohio) at Northern Illinois | 7 p.m. | CBSSN
Western Michigan at Central Michigan | 9 p.m. | ESPNU

Thursday, Nov. 17

SE Louisiana at Nicholls | 7 p.m. | ESPN+
SMU at Tulane | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

Friday, Nov. 18

South Florida at Tulsa | 9 p.m. | ESPN2
San Diego State at New Mexico | 9:45 p.m. | FS1

Saturday, Nov. 19

Navy at UCF | 11 a.m. | ESPN2
Illinois at Michigan | 12 p.m. | ABC
Wisconsin at Nebraska | 12 p.m. | ESPN
TCU at Baylor | 12 p.m. | FOX
Northwestern at Purdue | 12 p.m. | FS1
Austin Peay at Alabama | 12 p.m. | ESPN+/SECN+
Louisiana at Florida State | 12 p.m. | ESPN3
East Tennessee State at Mississippi State | 12 p.m. | ESPN+/SECN+
UMass at Texas A&M | 12 p.m. | ESPN+/SECN+
Florida at Vanderbilt | 12 p.m. | SEC Network
Indiana at Michigan State | 12 p.m. | Big Ten Network
UConn at Army | 12 p.m. | CBSSN
Virginia Tech at Liberty | 12 p.m. | ESPN+
Duke at Pitt | 12 p.m. | ACC Network
UTSA at Rice | 1 p.m. | ESPN+

Washington State at Arizona | 2 p.m. | Pac-12 Networks
Kansas State at West Virginia | 2 p.m. | Big 12 Now
North Alabama at Memphis | 2 p.m. | ESPN+
Georgia State at James Madison | 2 p.m. | ESPN+
Houston at East Carolina | 2 p.m. | ESPN+
Oregon State at Arizona State | 2:15 p.m. | ESPN2
Boston College at Notre Dame | 2:30 p.m. | NBC/Peacock
Old Dominion at Appalachian State | 2:30 p.m. | ESPN+

Georgia at Kentucky | 3:30 p.m. | CBS

Ohio State at Maryland | 3:30 p.m. | ABC
Miami (Fla.) at Clemson | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN
Penn State at Rutgers | 3:30 p.m. | Big Ten Network
NC State at Louisville | 3:30 p.m. | ACC Network
Texas at Kansas | 3:30 p.m. | FS1
Coastal Carolina at Virginia | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN3
Akron at Buffalo | 3:30 p.m. | CBSSN
Utah Tech at BYU | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN3
South Alabama at Southern Miss | 3:30 p.m. | NFL Network
UL Monroe at Troy | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Charlotte | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN3
Florida Atlantic at Middle Tennessee | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN+
Iowa at Minnesota | 4 p.m. | FOX
Western Kentucky at Auburn | 4 p.m. | SEC Network
Cincinnati at Temple | 4 p.m. | ESPNU
FIU at UTEP | 4 p.m. | ESPN+

Arkansas State at Texas State | 5 p.m. | ESPN3
Georgia Tech at North Carolina | 5:30 p.m. | ESPN2
Stanford at Cal | 5:30 p.m. | Pac-12 Networks
Marshall at Georgia Southern | 6 p.m. | ESPN+
Ole Miss at Arkansas | 6:30 p.m. | SEC Network
Tennessee at South Carolina | 7 p.m. | ESPN
Texas Tech at Iowa State | 7 p.m. | FS1
Boise State at Wyoming | 7 p.m. | CBSSN
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma | 7:30 p.m. | ABC
New Mexico State at Missouri | 7:30 p.m. | ESPNU
USC at UCLA | 8 p.m. | FOX
Syracuse at Wake Forest | 8 p.m. | ACC Network

UAB at LSU | 9 p.m. | ESPN2

Colorado at Washington | 9 p.m. | Pac-12 Networks
Colorado State at Air Force | 9 p.m. | FS2
San Jose State at Utah State | 9:45 | FS1
Utah at Oregon | 10:30 p.m. | ESPN
Fresno State at Nevada | 10:30 p.m. | CBSSN
UNLV at Hawai'i | 11 p.m. | Spectrum Sports PPV

2022 Indiana Recap

Indiana Recap

1. On a cold and snowy day in the Horseshoe, Ohio State trounced Indiana by the final score of 56 to 14, which marked the Buckeyes' 28th victory in a row against the hapless Hoosiers. In the series, Ohio State now owns a record of 79-12-5 (.849 winning percentage) and has outscored Indiana 2,655 to 1,096 (27.7 to 11.4 on a per game basis).

2. As you might imagine from the final score, Ohio State did pretty much everything right in yesterday's game. Quarterback C.J. Stroud did nothing to hurt his Heisman chances, connecting on 17 of 28 passes (.607 completion percentage) for 297 yards (10.6 yards per attempt), 5 touchdowns, no interceptions, and no sacks. If we're going to be completely honest, Stroud was a little bit off at times and a couple of his touchdown passes were called primarily to pad his stats for the benefit of Heisman voters, although each pass did in fact have a secondary purpose as well (more or those later).

3. Marvin Harrison Jr. once again proved that he is the best wide receiver in college football (and would probably be a top-10 wide receiver in the NFL if he were playing in the League today). Harrison had 7 receptions for 135 yards (19.3 average), including a 58-yard touchdown (his career-long reception). Harrison's best catch of the day came along the sideline when (reminiscent of Michael Thomas in the 2015 Sugar Bowl) he was somehow able to get one foot down in bounds while all of his momentum was carrying him out:

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4. Emeka Egbuka had a quiet day with just 2 receptions for 38 yards and a touchdown. Julian Fleming had 2 receptions for 24 yards, but also dropped what would have been a 45-yard touchdown. Jayden Ballard added a 24-yard reception from backup quarterback Kyle McCord.

5. The first of Stroud's stat-padding touchdowns was a one-yard pass to tight end Cade Stover in the third quarter. Showing a "heavy" look (I-formation, three tight ends), Stroud faked a handoff to the I-back and then lobbed a pass to Stover who blocked, released late, and found himself wide open in the corner of the end zone for the score. While Stroud was able to add an easy touchdown to his résumé, the play was also a nice constraint to the power running attack which once again failed to produce the necessary results in short yardage situations (see below). For the game, Stover had 3 receptions for 45 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

6. The second of Stroud's "gravy" touchdowns came with 8:49 left in the game with the Buckeyes maintaining a commanding 49-14 lead. Under normal circumstances, Stroud would have been on the bench watching the reserves mop up the Hoosiers, but Ryan Day dialed up a feel-good play worthy of the Hallmark Channel:

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7. Miyan Williams had his best day as a Buckeye, with 15 carries for 147 yards, including a 48-yard touchdown. However, Williams suffered the dreaded "lower body injury" in the second half and was helped off the field and carted to the locker room. With TreVeyon Henderson already out of the game with an injury of his own, true freshman Dallan Hayden saw extended action and racked up 102 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. When Hayden got dinged up, wide receiver Xavier Johnson filled in and promptly broke off a 71-yard touchdown run (with a key downfield block provided by Marvin Harrison Jr); Johnson added two receptions for 47 yards and recovered a blocked punt on special teams.

8. Although the running attack accounted for 345 yards and 3 touchdowns on 41 attempts (8.4 average), the Buckeyes still had problems in short yardage situations. The Buckeyes ran the ball seven times with one or two yards needed for a first down, with the following results (in game order):

3rd-and-2: 1 yard gain
3rd-and-1: 48 yard gain (TD)
3rd-and-2: 1 yard gain
3rd-and-1: no gain
4th-and-1: 1 yard loss
1st-and-2: 1 yard gain
3rd-and-1: 3 yard gain (first down)​

To recap: seven short yardage situations, two successes (one first down, one touchdown), five failures (including a turnover on downs). Not good, which is why we will probably see more play action passing from heavy formations.

9. The Buckeye defense generally played a great game, surrendering only 14 points, 269 total yards (4.2 per play), and 11 first downs while forcing 12 punts (nine after three-and-out drives) and holding Indiana to 3 of 18 (16.7%) on third and fourth down conversions. The defense recorded ten TFLs (including 4 sacks) for 38 yards lost, but they did not force any turnovers and allowed two long gains (a 49 yard pass and a 44 yard run). Safety Lathan Ransom led the way with 9 tackles and 1.5 sacks; linebacker Tommy Eichenberg had 7 tackles and 3 TFLs; linebacker Steele Chambers had 10 tackles and a sack; and end Jack Sawyer had 1.5 sacks.

10. The special teams blocked a punt (Lathan Ransom) that was recovered at the Indiana 2-yard line (Xavier Johnson) and led to a quick touchdown, but also muffed two punts (one recovered by the Hoosiers that they converted into seven points).

11. The refs let both teams play, calling only five penalties all game (three against Ohio State for 15 yards; two against Indiana for 20 yards).

2018 season reseeded

Attachments

  • 2018 Big Ten Championship - Ohio State vs Northwestern - December 1 2018 8PM.mp4.torrent
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  • 2018 Game 1 - Ohio State vs Oregon State - September 1 2018 12PM.mp4.torrent
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  • 2018 Game 2 - Ohio State vs Rutgers - September 8 2018 330PM.mp4.torrent
    12.9 KB · Views: 2
  • 2018 Game 7 - Ohio State vs Minnesota - October 13 2018 12PM.mp4.torrent
    12.7 KB · Views: 7
  • 2018 Game 9 - Ohio State vs Nebraska - November 03 2018 12PM.mp4.torrent
    14.9 KB · Views: 2
  • 2018 Game 12 - Ohio State vs TTUN - November 24 2018 12PM.mp4.torrent
    17.1 KB · Views: 0
  • 2018 Game 4 - Ohio State vs Tulane - September 23 2018 330PM.mp4.torrent
    13.7 KB · Views: 1
  • 2018 Game 12 - Ohio State vs TTUN - November 24 2018 12PM.mp4.torrent
    17.1 KB · Views: 5
  • 2018 Game 10 - Ohio State at Michigan State - November 10 2018 12PM.mp4.torrent
    14 KB · Views: 2
  • TCU VS OSU 2018.mp4.torrent
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  • 2019 Rose Bowl - Ohio State vs Washington - January 1 2019 5PM - Skycam.mp4.torrent
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Injuries and artificial turf

In todays game thread some folks were referencing the increase in injuries since we went back to artificial turf. I just stumbled on the following article referencing how the NFL Players union wants to ban, “Slit firm turf fields.” Does anyone know if that’s the type we have in the Shoe?


https://www.foxnews.com/sports/nflpa-calls-immediate-replacement-ban-slit-firm-turf-fields

LGHL Play Like a Girl podcast: Justin Fields is finally figuring it out

Play Like a Girl podcast: Justin Fields is finally figuring it out
Meredith Hein
via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


usa_today_19375800.0.jpg

Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Alexis also shares her thoughts on if the Eagles could win it all, plus a recap of this weekend’s best games.

On LGHL’s Play Like a Girl podcast, Alexis and Meredith talk everything from Ohio State sports to advocacy for women in sports and all the happenings in between.

Check out the podcast below, and make sure to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts:


Welcome back to the Play Like a Girl podcast! This week, Alexis and Meredith caught up on NFL news, including an update on Alexis’ undefeated Philadelphia Eagles and her thoughts on completing the season undefeated, making it to the Super Bowl, and winning the Super Bowl.

Plus, the pair talk about our resident favorite quarterback Justin Fields’ record-breaking rushing performance Sunday — and how another Ohio State quarterback performed on the ground in Chicago Saturday.

They also review how Team Cat did vs. Team Dog this week and talk about what we expect from Ohio State this weekend against Indiana. Hopefully more offense.


Contact Alexis Chassen
Twitter: @lovelybuckeye

Contact Meredith Hein
Twitter: @MeredithHein

Continue reading...

LGHL MC&J: TCU will try and stay undefeated when they take on Texas on Saturday

MC&J: TCU will try and stay undefeated when they take on Texas on Saturday
Brett Ludwiczak
via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


1438290427.0.jpg

Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images

Plus, picks for six other interesting games outside the Big Ten on Saturday.

Last week ATS: 11-3 (4-3 B1G, 7-0 National)

Season ATS: 75-75-3 (35-39-1 B1G, 40-35-2 National)

If only I could make picks every week like I did last week. Thanks to the huge week, our record is back to even with a month of games left to go, as well as bowl season.

National games:


(All lines courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook.)

No. 7 LSU (-3.5) v. Arkansas - 12:00 p.m. - ESPN

LSU enters this matchup coming off the emotional win over Alabama last week. After a tough start to the season, Jayden Daniels has become more comfortable in the LSU offense. Not only has Daniels recorded 24 total touchdowns this year, the Arizona State transfer has done a great job at limiting mistakes, only throwing one interception.

After starting the season with a ton of promise, Arkansas has fallen apart, losing four of their last six games The most recent loss came last week when they were defeated in Fayetteville by Liberty. KJ Jefferson has the ability to match Daniels on the ground and through the air, the Arkansas quarterback just isn’t getting much help.

Normally I’d say this game is a textbook scenario to take the Razorbacks. While the idea of taking an unranked home underdog hosting a ranked team coming off a huge win sounds great, this LSU team feels a little different. The Tigers look like they are buying into Brian Kelly’s coaching. Arkansas could make things interesting for a while, I just think LSU ends up winning this game by 7-10 points.

LSU 31, Arkansas 21


Louisville v. No. 10 Clemson (-7) - 3:30 p.m. - ESPN

Are we really sure that Clemson is that much better of a team than Louisville right now? The Cardinals have found a bit of a rhythm, winning their last four games. Malik Cunningham isn’t going to wow anybody with his passing, but he can keep opponents off balance with his ability to run the football. The Louisville offense is pretty balanced, throwing for 221 yards per game, while running for 202 yards per contest.

Clemson is in a lot of trouble right now. The Tigers looked listless in a 35-14 loss to Notre Dame last week. Even though the Tigers are still in the driver’s seat to make the ACC Championship Game, it is obvious they had a bigger goal for this season. It’ll be interesting to see if Dabo Swinney sticks with D.J. Uiagalelei, or turns to freshman quarterback Cade Klubnik.

Some may think the loss to the Fighting Irish might wake the Tigers up. I’m not so sure since Clemson has a number of problems. The Tigers don’t have playmakers on either side of the football that they have had in the past. A dynamic quarterback like Cunningham could cause fits for the Tigers, who are already dealing with confidence issues.

Louisville 28, Clemson 24


No. 9 Alabama (-11.5) v. No. 11 Ole Miss - 3:30 p.m. - CBS

We have all seen this snuff film before. Alabama drops a game and Sabanbot2000 has his team ready to murder in their next game. The Crimson Tide obviously don’t have the receivers that we have seen from them over the last few years. What they do have is Bryce Young. Even though the quarterback isn’t in the Heisman Trophy conversation after winning last year, he is still one of the most dangerous players in college football.

Ole Miss is one of the best teams in the country at running the football. Unfortunately for the Rebels, Alabama doesn’t give up much on the ground, with opponents averaging 104 yards per game rushing against the Crimson Tide. If Alabama is able to slow down Quinshon Judkins, that puts more pressure on Jaxson Dart, who has thrown seven interceptions this year.

Even though Ole Miss has just one loss this year, they haven’t really played anyone aside from LSU. I’m not convinced the Rebels are ready to win, or even keep a game like this close. The Crimson Tide keep themselves in position in the SEC West in case LSU falters down the stretch. Alabama wins their six straight against the Rebels by at least 15 points.

Alabama 45, Ole Miss 23


No. 22 UCF v. No. 17 Tulane (-1.5) - 3:30 p.m. - ESPN2

If at the beginning of the year you told me I’d be writing about this game in November, I would have thought you were crazy. Saturday’s contest in New Orleans will go a long way at determining the New Year’s Six Group of Five representative.

UCF has an offense that is averaging over 500 yards per game. What we don’t know is who is going to be taking the snaps for the Knights. Last week, John Rhys Plumlee missed the 35-28 win over Memphis with a concussion. In Plumlee’s place, Mikey Keene threw for 219 yards and three scores, while running back RJ Harvey rushed for 151 yards and a touchdown.

Tulane does a lot of little things well. The Green Wave are allowing just over 300 yards per game this year, while scoring 33 points. I’m just not convinced this is a good matchup for them. UCF has a lot of tough wins over the last few years, while Tulane hasn’t been tested all that much. I feel like Plumlee will be back, which makes things even tougher for the Green Wave in this game.

UCF 34, Tulane 30


No. 1 Georgia (-16) v. Mississippi State - 7:00 p.m. - ESPN

Under Mike Leach, Mississippi State seems to make a name for themselves by putting up a bunch of points against bad teams, and then folding like a cheap tent against good team. Hell, Leach was even folding chairs himself on the sidelines because he didn’t think his wide receivers deserved to sit in them.


Last week: Mike Leach said last week he was worried his WRs kids would have T-Rex arms because they sucked so bad at catching.

Tonight: Leach throws all his WR's chairs on the ground b/c they don't deserve to sit. (h/t @JonathanFlippo) pic.twitter.com/DlhVnr0ZPR

— Jim Weber (@JimMWeber) November 6, 2022

Aside from a road game against Missouri last month, Georgia hasn’t really been tested this year. The Bulldogs destroyed Oregon in the opener, and in the last two weeks they’ve easily handled Florida and Tennessee. Even though Georgia lost a lot of the stars from last year’s title team to the NFL, Stetson Bennett is still in Athens, running an offense that doesn’t make many mistakes.

While there will be plenty of cowbells ringing in Starkville, Georgia is too good to be effected by the road trip and the Mississippi State fans. As we saw last week, Kirby Smart’s team can shut down the pass. It’s not like Mike Leach’s squad can hurt you any other way when you take away their air attack.

Georgia 38, Mississippi State 14


No. 25 Washington v. No. 6 Oregon (-13.5) - 7:00 p.m. - FOX

After dropping games to UCLA and Arizona State, Washington has rebounded with wins in their last three games. The victories might have not been runaways, with the Huskies winning the games against Arizona, Cal, and Oregon State by a combined 20 points, but wins are wins. Amazingly, last week against the Beavers saw Michael Penix Jr. fail to throw for at least 300 yards in a game for the first time this season. Penix finished with 298 yards passing in the win.

If you take away the 49-3 loss to Georgia in the opener, and there is no way the Ducks would be outside the top-four in the CFP rankings. Oregon has scored at least 40 points in each of the eight games following the drubbing by the Bulldogs. With four total touchdowns last week against Colorado, Bo Nix now has 35 scores on the season.

Oregon has largely dominated this series of late, winning 15 of the last 17 meetings with their neighbors to the north. The only two Washington wins during that span came in 2016 and 2017. I feel like the Ducks are going to earn another win on Saturday night, I’m just not sure it will be by two touchdowns. The last three games between the rivals have been decided by a combined 17 points. Washington has the firepower to at least keep the Ducks from running away with the game.

Oregon 41, Washington 31


No. 4 TCU v. No. 18 Texas (-7) - 7:30 p.m. - ABC

Honestly, I’m not even sure why they are playing this game. All I’m hearing is how it is a lock that Texas is going to win, and the College Football Playoff committee is going to be so relieved when the Longhorns hand the Horned Frogs their first loss of the season. I must have missed where Texas became such a reliable team.

Not that I don’t get why people are already burying TCU. The Horned Frogs have been playing with fire for the last month, with all five of their wins coming by 10 points or less. In most of those games, TCU was trailing in the second half. While some might knock the Horned Frogs for needing so long to get things together in games, I actually credit them for never giving up.

Texas certainly is a different team with Quinn Ewers at quarterback. Let’s not kid ourselves though, Bijan Robinson is what makes the Longhorn offense tick. Robinson has 1,129 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground this year. Even with Robinson and Ewers, Texas still has to work way too hard to win games. The Longhorns almost lost to Iowa State and Kansas State, while dropping an extremely winnable game against Oklahoma State.

I know Austin is going to be rocking on Saturday. It’s not anything TCU can’t handle, though. It just seems like everybody and their mom is on the Longhorns in this game, which makes it hard to pass up taking the touchdown with the Horned Frogs against a Texas team that loves making a meal out of everything they do.

TCU 37, Texas 34

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.

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CFP - But With Context

Contextual Comparisons

Like any sports message board, Buckeye Planet is full of people who are convinced that they're right and that anyone who disagrees with them is not only wrong but also stupid, insane, evil, downright un-American, or combination thereof. What sets us apart is that we also have a few people who have a sense of perspective. I'm not one of them, but I hear they're out there.

This time of year the discussions and arguments among college football fans are about who deserves to be ranked where in the CFP rankings. Statistics can't end those discussions and settle those arguments, because everyone has a different definition of that elusive word "deserves". Even for those who believe that being the best makes you deserving, stats can provide only data, not answers.

Unlike what you'll get from most sports media, we here at BP prefer stats with context. Rather than just compare teams to whom they've played, we prefer numbers that compare teams to everyone whom their opponents have played.

Take scoring offense: Just scoring more than other teams doesn't mean much if you don't answer the age-old question: "Who have they played?" But if you look at Differential Scoring Offense (DSO), the answer to that question is built into the statistic. A DSO of 1 means that you score exactly what your opponents usually give up; a DSO of 2 means you score twice as much; a DSO of 0.5 means you only score half as much. To add more context to the discussion, rigidity is a number from -100 to 100 that indicates how well your DSO holds up against better competition. For more information on BP-Style Stats, see this Glossary.


Rushing Offense


While our example above was scoring offense, the principle works the same for rushing offense. In Differential Rushing Offense (DRO), Air Force is number one in the country. The point here however is to provide context for playoff ranking discussions, so the table below shows the DRO rankings for the top twelve in CFP rankings:


TeamDRO ratioDRO RankCFP Rank
Michigan1.77123
Mississippi1.696411
UCLA1.631512
Oregon1.407166
Georgia1.382181
Ohio State1.382192
Tennessee1.350205
Alabama1.314269
TCU1.263314
LSU1.209397
Clemson1.1324610
USC1.132478
Many people prefer to compare teams by yards per carry rather than yards per game. This does add a bit of context, and using differential stats adds even more. The following table shows the top twelve in Differential Yards Per Carry (offense):

TeamDYpC ratioDYpC RankCFP Rank
Michigan1.45713
Ohio State1.44722
Alabama1.42139
UCLA1.411412
Georgia1.36881
Oregon1.290126
Mississippi1.2761511
TCU1.257194
USC1.204238
LSU1.164287
Tennessee1.100405
Clemson1.0335610
Stats are okay. Stats with context are great. Stats with context that are surprising are among my favorite things. Stats with context that show something surprising about how great Ohio State is.... That's life.

Based on DYpC alone, I could argue that Ohio State has the second-best rushing attack in the country. Does this mean that the Buckeyes' running game doesn't need work? Of course not. This is where rigidity comes into play. Despite being number two in DYpC, the Buckeyes have a subpar rigidity of -35.736, while their prime opponent (Michigan) not only has a slightly better DYpC but also a decent rigidity of 19.254. The upshot is that the Buckeyes have done better against the lesser teams but have struggled, relatively speaking, against the better rushing defenses on their schedule (Penn State, Iowa). Regardless, these differential numbers do show that the Ohio State running game is a good one; the Buckeyes just need to shore up a few things in order to become truly elite on the ground. Buckeye fans seem to love to panic, and the running game has been a prime source of that panic lately. But a little numerical context can provide some much needed perspective, no?

Rushing Defense

Rushing defense is more of a mixed bag for the top twelve:

TeamDRD ratioDRD RankCFP Rank
Georgia0.47611
Michigan0.50633
Tennessee0.54945
Alabama0.57479
Oregon0.656156
Louisiana State0.666187
Ohio State0.679212
Clemson0.7282910
UCLA0.7894512
Texas Christian0.834574
Southern Cal0.909788
Mississippi1.04310411
As with the offense, the Yards Per Carry comparison is probably more valid, and it comes with some surprises:

TeamDYpC ratioDYpC RankCFP Rank
Tennessee0.68115
Michigan0.68723
Alabama0.68839
Georgia0.70551
Ohio State0.788132
Louisiana State0.838227
Oregon0.845236
UCLA0.9284112
Texas Christian0.946524
Clemson0.9515510
Mississippi1.0829811
Southern Cal1.084998
Would you have guessed that the Vols are #1 in the country in Differential Yards per Carry defense?

Yeah... Me either

The most striking thing to me about the rushing defense numbers though is how poor some of the top twelve teams are at stopping the run. There was a time not so long ago when the rushing defense rankings didn't look all that different from the AP top-20.

Passing Offense

Having finally gotten the DSA spreadsheets cranked up for the first time in over a decade, it's a shame that they churned out their first FBS-wide numbers right after the Buckeyes played a starring role in The Perfect Storm II, or at least that's what it looked like from the comfort of my recliner in my man cave. Doubtless, the Buckeyes would have utterly dominated these rankings before Saturday's game against Northwestern. Nevertheless, here they are, with that horrible day included. (North Carolina, with top-five quarterback Drake Maye running the show, is number one in the country in DPO):

TeamDPO ratioDPO RankCFP Rank
Tennessee1.51525
Ohio State1.40392
USC1.328138
Georgia1.259171
Oregon1.185246
Alabama1.168289
LSU1.126377
Clemson1.0924510
UCLA1.0625012
TCU1.025564
Mississippi1.0126111
Michigan0.919833
For decades now, pass efficiency has been considered a better measure for comparing quarterbacks than simple passing yards per game. It's even better when some context is added, as with Differential Passing Efficiency:

TeamDPE ratioDPE RankCFP Rank
Tennessee1.55015
Ohio State1.53422
USC1.24678
Michigan1.204113
TCU1.197134
UCLA1.1851412
Oregon1.174166
LSU1.163187
Georgia1.163191
Mississippi1.1212911
Alabama1.118309
Clemson1.1043310
O
f all the comparisons that we've done so far, it is interesting that Offensive Differential Pass Efficiency is the only one where all of the top twelve teams are in the top 33 nationally.

While C.J. Stroud is ahead of Hendon Hooker in this metric, it is notable that the Volunteers as a team are actually ahead of the Buckeyes (in large part due to the nor'easter the Buckeyes played through on Saturday). It is also remarkable how far in front of everyone else those two teams are. North Carolina is third at 1.414, and no one else is above 1.3. It is also noteworthy that Ohio State's Rigidity in this metric is 12.461 while Tennessee's is -23.590, meaning that Ohio State has held up better to their tougher competition than Tennessee has (spoiler: three of Ohio State's opponents are in the top ten in DPE-defense).


Passing Defense

If you were expecting the top teams to be bunched near the top in Pass Defense the way they were for offense, you'll be disappointed. The only thing notable about the Differential Pass Defense numbers is that just two of the top twelve were in the top ten for DPD, with Ohio State being tops among them at number six with a DPD of 0.766, and Alabama at number nine with a DPD of 0.792. Below is the chart for DPE defense. (Illinois is #1 in FBS with DPE of 0.698):

TeamDPE ratioDPE RankCFP Rank
Georgia0.74721
Alabama0.76539
Michigan0.82283
Ohio State0.869162
Louisiana State0.882227
Clemson0.8822310
Texas Christian0.933484
Tennessee0.947525
Southern Cal0.948548
UCLA0.9666012
Oregon1.013736
Mississippi1.0639111
Of note is the presence of three of Ohio State's opponents in the top ten in FBS in Differential Pass Efficiency – Defense: Penn State is at #4, Iowa at #9, and Notre Dame at #10 (Wisconsin, another Ohio State opponent, checks in at #24).

Scoring

Finally we come to the most important numbers: Differential Scoring, both offense and defense, and the the composite number that combines them (see the previously-mentioned Glossary if these things are new to you). In addition to the top twelve, some other teams of note are included:

TeamDSO ratioDSO RankDSD ratioDSD RankDSC powerDSC RankCFP Rank
Georgia1.49380.38713.85411
Ohio State2.04410.60073.40622
Michigan1.67930.53043.17033
Tennessee1.89920.701202.70945
Alabama1.59540.59162.69859
Illinois0.991660.47622.080621
Penn State1.449100.708212.046714
Texas1.284230.688161.866818
Louisiana State1.284220.710221.808107
Notre Dame1.145420.699191.6381420
Southern Cal1.48590.914471.625168
Wisconsin1.384130.852391.62317NR
Clemson1.352140.855401.5811810
Minnesota0.992650.62991.57719NR
Iowa0.884810.56651.56120NR
Oregon1.421110.981571.448236
UCLA1.411120.997591.4152612
Texas Christian1.290190.917491.407274
Maryland1.127470.826341.36533NR
Michigan State1.127490.838351.34535NR
North Carolina1.58051.2741131.2404515
Mississippi1.284241.037721.2384611
Kentucky0.869840.717231.2124924
There are so many interesting comparisons one could make in the above table. I will point out two and leave the rest to the reader's imagination. First, observe how almost absurdly biased the committee is toward offense. When it comes to the "eye test", they seem to notice only one side of the ball. The second point is something we already knew intuitively, but I don't think I've ever seen it spelled out so dramatically. Compare each B1G team's DSC to its ranking. Some might say that all of those impressive DSC rankings come from playing in a bad conference. I would say that those people don't know how DSC really works. It is a mathematical impossibility for a conference to have that many teams that highly ranked in DSC by beating up on each other, or even by beating up on the weaker members of their own conference, because whatever those better teams are doing to the lesser teams is hurting every other B1G team's differential numbers.

There are many other observations that can be made, but half the fun is discovering things for yourself. Go nuts. If there are specific rankings that you would like to know or perhaps additional calculations you would like to see, just ask.

LGHL Jacy Sheldon leads Ohio State’s toppling of Rocky Top

Jacy Sheldon leads Ohio State’s toppling of Rocky Top
1ThomasCostello
via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


usa_today_19391045.0.jpg

Joseph Scheller/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Dublin, Ohio guard’s defensive play is the foundation of Ohio State’s signature win against the University of Tennessee.

There was an electricity about Tuesday’s Ohio State Buckeyes game even before the clock started to run. In the weeks leading up to the game, Ohio State pushed to get their fans into the Schottenstein Center on Election Day, while Tennessee Volunteers orange stood out throughout the arena. There were pyrotechnics, a loud student section, and a small part of the Best Damn Band in the Land heightening the atmosphere. Once the game began though, it was guard Jacy Sheldon pulling in the collective attention.

The Vols started the game as expected, getting to the hoop. Tennessee featured a starting lineup including transfer student Rickea Jackson who led the SEC in points per game last season, 6-foot-6 center Tamari Key in the paint and local Columbus-area high school star Jordan Horston leading head coach Kellie Harper’s side.

Tennessee struck first, going up four points. Combine that with a tough start for the Scarlet and Gray, missing their initial three shots and earning an early turnover and foul. In response, the Schottenstein Center was reduced to the cavernous multipurpose arena that it is, instead of a sixth player in the stands. In stepped an unforgiving Sheldon.

Why unforgiving? All night Sheldon made the Vols regret any small mistake within her reach.

Down four, Sheldon earned two quick steals turned to assists to Taylor Mikesell and Taylor Thierry. The first, Sheldon anticipating a pass from Jackson beyond the arc, creating a fast break. The second, the guard making even a simple inbound pass difficult for the visitors, quickly finding the outlet to Mikesell. It was the start of a defensive performance that surprised everyone but Sheldon’s teammates.

“I’m used to Jacy being a defensive player,” said Mikesell after the 87-75 victory. “I think we’ve gotten used to playing with each other in our little press and then bringing Madison (Greene) back, it’s good to have three defensive players in the back. We got a lot of stops that helped us on our offense.”

It wasn’t necessarily a surprise that Sheldon was strong defensively. After all, she was named to the B1G All-Defensive Team in 2021-22 on top of her unanimous First Team All-B1G honor. The surprise was how Tennessee couldn’t stop it.

Sheldon met her career high in takeaways Tuesday, in the first half alone. Then in the second she doubled it. The Naismith watch list player’s eight steals came in a variety of ways. Outside of a couple anticipated passes, Sheldon dived to the ground, forced drops and wrestled the ball away from players seven to 12 inches taller.

There was no hesitation. Sheldon was laser-focused on the court, which is nothing new. After making her 1,000th career point last year in another marquee victory, against the Maryland Terrapins, Sheldon appeared annoyed when the announcer shared her accomplishment with the crowd, and pushed attention away following that highlight 21/22 win. On Tuesday, she shifted the focus again.

After a team shooting half of 10% from deep and 39% overall in the first half, Mikesell scored 15 third quarter points and forward Rebeka Mikulášiková’s game-tying three turned the decibel levels up to the ceiling. As every Buckeye began finding their shots, making timely blocks and frustrating the Vols, Sheldon quietly had eight points, four assists and four steals in the second half to maintain the firm foundation she built in the first half.

Tuesday could have been a star player finding a new level to meet an occasion or this season’s Sheldon is different.

“She plays so hard,” said head coach Kevin McGuff. “I don’t think people realize how good of an athlete she is, she’s so quick up the court. She’s got a great first step. She just seemed to make some timely plays on both ends of the floor.”

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LGHL How the College Football Playoff picture looks from here

How the College Football Playoff picture looks from here
David M Wheeler
via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


usa_today_19366062.0.jpg

Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

The 9-0 Buckeyes are ranked No. 2, right in the thick of things.

Coming into the 2022 season – or any season, for that matter – it was easy to say of Ohio State’s team, if they win all of their games, including the Big Ten Championship game, they’re in the playoffs. Sure. The Bucks are in a power conference, play a decently strong schedule, and carry a big reputation. After nine games, that mandate of winning every game still holds. Beat Indiana, beat Maryland, beat TTUN, beat whatever the Big Ten West sends to Indianapolis, and they’re in.

We’re now well into November, and we have a much clearer look at the playoffs — who’s likely to participate and who’s not. The four unbeaten teams occupy the top four positions in the CFP rankings released Tuesday night. That seems right, but what else can we say about the playoff picture?

We can laugh at Oklahoma and Texas A&M, preseason contenders who fell by the wayside long ago. We can at least smile at the recent misfortunes of perennial playoff participants Alabama and Clemson. And when it comes to the Buckeyes, we can certainly smile at the season so far. But we’d better also cross our fingers, because there’s football left to play. Let’s look at how the playoffs stack up.

Any non-Power Five conference teams this year?


The short answer is “no.” In 2021 Cincinnati became the first such team to participate in the CFP, which has been in place since the 2014 season. Cincinnati had a multi-season history of success, they were undefeated, and they had the big win at Notre Dame. There’s nobody this year who meets those criteria, and, let’s face it, an independent (not named Notre Dame) or a team from the Sun Belt, All-American Conference, Conference USA, MAC, or Mountain West would have to be unbeaten with a jaw-dropping win against somebody.

There are currently three one-loss teams: independent Liberty, Coastal Carolina from the Sun Belt, and surprising Tulane, leading the AAC. Although the Green Wave are the only team in this week’s CFP rankings (at No. 17), all three of these teams are engaged in great seasons. For me, Liberty is the most intriguing because of its schedule and because it’s one point away from being undefeated, having lost to a ranked Wake Forest team, 37-36. Liberty has wins over BYU and Arkansas and will face Virginia Tech in a couple of weeks. Not giants, you say? True, but a legitimate schedule that makes Liberty the best of the rest.

What about a two-loss team in this year’s playoffs?


It’s never happened and I’m counting on precedent to keep the Crimson Tide out. But there is a scenario, and one that’s not really unlikely, that would place two-loss LSU in the playoffs. Let’s say that Georgia and LSU win out over their final three games (although LSU must play at Texas A&M, a team desperate, I would think, to have something redeeming to point to). The Dawgs and Tigers would meet in the SEC Championship. While we all might expect Kirby Smart’s guys to keep rolling, what if LSU beat Georgia? Surely, the SEC champs (with wins over Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss) are in and, I would think, Georgia too.

I don’t see any other two-loss team with any chance of making the playoffs. Unless, of course, something really weird happens to all of the frontrunners.

So, who’s likely to get in?


The SEC champ, and, if that is LSU, then Georgia as well. If Georgia wins, a one-loss Tennessee, with wins over LSU and Alabama, would also get a berth, I think. The Vols have a pretty easy final three games, with only a trip to Columbia, SC posing any threat. Without unforeseen upsets, I predict two SEC teams from among Georgia, Tennessee, and LSU. Sorry, Bama.

Oops, did I overlook Ole Miss? No. The Rebels are 8-1 (4-1 in the SEC) and play Alabama this weekend. The game is in Oxford, but I think that the Tide will win pretty big. Even if Ole Miss wins – a very big win, no question – they would lose the SEC West tiebreaker to LSU, who beat them by 25, and be shut out of the championship game. The Rebels’ only chance is to win out and have LSU stumble. Then, of course, beat Georgia for the title. As the Brits are so fond of saying, “not bloody likely.”

The winner of the Ohio State vs. Michigan game. We assume that the winner will also win the Big Ten Championship, but what if they lose to, say, Illinois or Wisconsin? I think that OSU or Michigan, with one loss, still gets into the playoffs unless they somehow get blown out in Indianapolis.

That leaves only one spot available for the other three Power Five conferences (and maybe the loser of the Ohio State-Michigan game). TCU is the only unbeaten in this group, and if they win out, they’re in the playoffs. An undefeated conference champ is in. The Frogs have a tough stretch, however, playing at Texas (a team clearly on the rise) and then at home against Baylor and Iowa State. I think that they’ll lose to Texas and maybe one of the others. A one-loss TCU isn’t that appealing. While their strength of schedule is a very respectable No. 42, their wins over then-ranked Oklahoma, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State don’t look as impressive as they once did.

Ah, Clemson. Can Dabo sneak in once again? Although they looked bad against Notre Dame and barely beat Syracuse, Florida State, and Wake Forest, I fear that Clemson with one loss and an ACC Championship trophy would get into the playoffs. But it won’t be easy for this not particularly strong team. While their final three games are all at home, Louisville, Miami (FL), and South Carolina won’t be cakewalks. Clemson could also lose to North Carolina in the ACC Championship game.

What about the Tar Heels? Well, they’re sitting at 8-1, 5-0 in the conference. Their one loss was to Notre Dame, 45-32, but they haven’t really got a top-quality win. UNC, too, has a pretty tough finish to their season: at Wake Forest, Georgia Tech in Chapel Hill, and NC State also at home. Winning those three and then beating Clemson for the title would put them in probably. In short, they still have a shot.

The PAC-12 is, as usual, a bit of a mess. No one is undefeated. Oregon, USC, and UCLA are all 8-1; Utah is 7-2. All are good teams. And they’ve all got tough games to go. UCLA has the best chance, with the easiest schedule. If they beat USC, they could claim that fourth playoff slot. The Trojans, on the other hand, would have to beat UCLA and Notre Dame. USC’s one loss was to Utah, by one point. Oregon closes out the regular season against two ranked teams, No. 13 Utah and No. 25 Washington, both at home, and then at rival Oregon State. I wouldn’t be surprised if, when the dust clears out west, there aren’t any PAC-12 teams remaining with a single loss. Oregon is the best of the teams, with its 45-30 win over the Bruins.

Here’s my take, with current CFP rankings in parentheses.

Playoff prediction


1. Georgia (1)
2. Ohio State (2)
3. Tennessee (5)
4. Oregon (6)

But nobody wants to see a replay of the Georgia-Oregon game (49-3, if you don’t remember), so I going to change it.

Second playoff prediction


1. Georgia (1)
2. Ohio State (2)
3. Tennessee (5)
4. Clemson (10), with Oregon (6), Michigan (3), USC (8), in that order, as the next likely teams in

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