Week 10’s Big Ten college football bets, odds features Nebraska and Ohio State battling under the lights
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


The Cornhuskers and Buckeyes meet for the first time since 2012 in what is essentially a College Football Playoff eliminator game.

Trying to figure out who to pick in Alabama-LSU and a few of the other national games? You can find this week’s picks here.

Last week ATS: 5-6 (1-4 National, 4-2 B1G)

Season ATS: 55-61-3 (21-28-1 National, 34-33-2 B1G)

B1G games:


No. 8 Wisconsin (-7) v. Northwestern - 12:00 PM EST - ABC

Even though they didn’t end up pulling out the victory last week, Northwestern has to be feeling good about themselves after making Ohio State sweat in Columbus. Now the Wildcats turn their attention to a Big Ten West clash with Nebraska, with both teams sitting a game behind Nebraska. Against Ohio State, the Wildcats got eight catches for 158 yards out of Austin Carr, but the wide receiver failed to score a touchdown, snapping a streak of six straight games in which he has reached the end zone.

Yet again Wisconsin was taken to overtime by a top 10 team, but unlike the Ohio State game a few weeks ago, the Badgers were able to pull out the victory. Wisconsin didn’t get much out of Corey Clement against the Cornhuskers, instead getting a season-high 120 yards out of running back Dare Ogunbowale. It might be tough for Carr to find any traction against the Badgers since Wisconsin has a strong secondary. Derrick Tindal and Sojourn Shelton both have 10 pass breakups.

In recent memory Evanston seems to Wisconsin’s kryptonite. The Badgers have lost their last four games at Northwestern, failing to register a win there since 1999. I don’t know if I’m fully convinced that Northwestern is able to extend that streak, but I do think the Wildcats end up covering the spread.

Northwestern 24, Wisconsin 20

Indiana (-14) v. Rutgers - 12:00 PM EST - Big Ten Network

While nothing is for certain, it really does look like Indiana will be going bowling for a second straight season. Not only do the Hoosiers get to play Rutgers this weekend, but they still get to play Purdue later this month. After rushing for 130 yards last week in the win over Maryland, Devine Redding should have another big day against a Rutgers defense that is giving up 260 rushing yards per game to opponents.

Rutgers gave Minnesota a run for their money a couple weeks ago with Giovanni Rescigno at quarterback, but I don’t think the Hoosiers let the Scarlet Knights hang around. The combination of Redding and quarterback Richard Lagow will be too much for Rutgers to handle.

Indiana 41, Rutgers 17

Michigan State (-7) v. Illinois - 12:00 PM EST - ESPNews

Michigan State has not only lost six straight games, but they just lost starting quarterback Brian Lewerke for the season to a leg injury. At least the Spartans showed a little fight against Michigan in the loss. The same can’t be said for Illinois who has looked terrible pretty much all year long. The Spartans snap their losing streak while adding to Lovie Smith’s woes in Champaign.

Michigan State 31, Illinois 21

Maryland v. No. 3 Michigan (-31) - 3:30 PM EST - ESPN

The Terrapins started off the season hot, winning D.J. Durkin’s first four games, but since then Maryland has come back down to earth, losing three of their last four. It looked like Maryland was well on their way to bowl eligibility, but now they’ll have to sweat it out with this game against Michigan, followed by tilts with Ohio State and Nebraska before the Terrapins get a reprieve with a game against Rutgers to close out the regular season.

Michigan was able to get a bit of revenge against Michigan State after what transpired last year in Ann Arbor, but they had a little more difficulty with the Spartans than many had anticipated. Running the football is what Maryland wants to do, but it’s hard to imagine the Terrapins getting much on the ground against a Michigan defense that is allowing just 111 yards per game on the ground.

One might think that Michigan might take their foot of the gas a little earlier in this one since the Wolverines are going up against former assistant coach D.J. Durkin, but then again Jim Harbaugh is certifiably insane. The one reason I think this stays within the number is because there will probably be a lot of running in this one, which could make taking the points a wise option here.

Michigan 38, Maryland 13

Purdue v. Minnesota (-17) - 3:30 PM EST - Big Ten Network

This game seems like it’d be a perfect game for the Friday night broadcasts that the Big Ten is planning on doing starting next year. Just put this on Friday so the Big Ten can get what they want, but also we won’t feel bad at all if we don’t end up watching.

Purdue just got demolished by Penn State last week, while Minnesota had their way with Illinois. I feel like I keep going to well with counting on Purdue to cover the spread via late touchdowns from David Blough. Last week it didn’t work, but I could see it happening this week. Hopefully the Golden Gophers don’t jump out by too much to ruin my strategy here.

Minnesota 38, Purdue 24

Iowa v. No. 12 Penn State (-7) - 7:30 PM EST - Big Ten Network

After losing earlier in the year to Pitt and Michigan, it looked like James Franklin might be on the hot seat, but Penn State has really turned things around. The Nittany Lions have won four straight games, and are ranked 12th in the College Football Playoff rankings. After a sluggish start last week, Penn State blitzed Purdue in the second half and ended up winning by 38 points. Saquon Barkley set a career-high with 207 yards rushing against the Boilermakers in the lopsided victory.

If there is one area where Penn State has struggled this year it has been against the run, and that’s what Iowa does best on offense. Akrun Wadley and LeShun Daniels Jr. are both in the top 10 in the Big Ten in rushing, so the duo could add to their totals. The Hawkeyes have had some success knocking off ranked Penn State teams in the last decade, beating the third-ranked Nittany Lions in Iowa City in 2008, and followed that up by beating a fifth-ranked Penn State team in State College in 2009.

Even though it’s very possible that Iowa could beat Penn State here, I just don’t see it happening. Penn State at home at night is just a whole different animal, which Ohio State found out a couple weeks ago. Iowa may keep things tight early, but in the end I think the Nittany Lions win by double digits.

Penn State 27, Iowa 17

No. 10 Nebraska v. No. 6 Ohio State (-17) - 8:00 PM EST - ABC

Mike Riley has really found some traction in his second year in Lincoln. Even with last week’s overtime loss at Wisconsin, the Cornhuskers have played some good football this year. The Nebraska defense is greatly improved, and is leading the nation with 15 interceptions. The offense is steadied by the senior leadership of Tommy Armstrong Jr. at quarterback, and receivers like Jordan Westerkamp and Stanley Morgan Jr. are players Ohio State can’t let get away from them.

Ohio State has been extremely frustrating over the last few weeks. First the Buckeyes were taken to overtime against Wisconsin, followed that up with a loss to Penn State, and last week barely got by Northwestern. Although, the Wildcats are a lot better team than some are giving them credit for.

The passing game for Ohio State lately has been awful, and it’s hard to see them getting on track against a strong Nebraska secondary. At least the Buckeyes have the luxury of using Mike Weber, Curtis Samuel, and J.T. Barrett to rush the football and possibly open things up for Barrett to make some throws and find some momentum. It certainly would help if the defense could get a few turnovers to give the offense a short field that could possibly help put some distance on the Cornhuskers.

Much like the Northwestern game, I think this spread is a little too high. It’s hard to back Ohio State laying more than two touchdowns against a talented Nebraska team. Of course it wouldn’t surprise me if the Buckeyes blew the Cornhuskers out of the water, especially with Nebraska playing their second road game in a row. I think Ohio State ends up winning a 10-14 game here.

Ohio State 33, Nebraska 21

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Ohio State Basketball returns to action with more leadership and higher expectations
Matt Tamanini via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


What does this team need to do to make the NCAA Tournament?

With the 2016-2017 Ohio State basketball team set to officially take the floor for the first time on Sunday, Land-Grant Holy Land’s official podcast, The Hangout in the Holyland, takes a deep dive into what will hopefully be a bounce-back season after losing to Florida in the second round of the NIT tournament last year.

Hosts Matt Tamanini and Matt Brown are joined by WNBS FM 97.1 The Fan’s Lori Schmidt to give an up-close look at the program following the departure of 80% of the team’s 2015 recruiting class and Thad Matta’s top assistant.

Matt Brown also recaps the highlights of Big Ten Basketball Media Day, which was held in Washington D.C. for the first time this year, and the Matts make a few (not so) bold predictions about the season for Ohio State and the Big Ten as a whole.

They also discuss...

• Ohio State’s surprising rankings in KenPom’s advanced metrics.
• if Marc Loving isn’t going to be the team’s leader, who is?
• Chris Jent’s impact on the team.
• if JaQuan Lyle is the best player on the team.
• the potential impact of the four-man recruiting class.

Matt, Lori, and Matt also discuss bed wetting, “Matt sandwiches,” and dumb money.


You can find the podcast on our iTunes page, and we strongly encourage reviews, comments, criticisms, etc. to help us deliver the best possible audio product. The more we hear from you, the better we can make it. We’re also on Soundcloud, the SB Nation podcast page, and you can subscribe via RSS on your Android and Windows Phone devices here.

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Ohio State needs to turn potential into production to beat Nebraska.
Colton Denning via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


Playing consistently for four quarters would help too.

With four weeks left in the regular season, the Ohio State Buckeyes have every single goal they set out for at the beginning of the year within their grasp. Despite losing to Penn State two weeks ago, they still control their own destiny in the Big Ten, and beyond. In fact, the Buckeyes already rank 6th in 2016’s initial College Football Playoff Top 25, with multiple big-time games left to prove their worth to the committee. The first of those games comes on Saturday.

Against No. 10 Nebraska, the Buckeyes have chance to notch another signature win to go with their victories over Wisconsin (8th) and Oklahoma (14th). It’s also a game that may make-or-break this team’s identity as one good enough to compete for a conference title (and more), or ultimately, one that was just too young to reach such lofty goals.

Ohio State has been inconsistent enough over the course of the last month that it isn’t hard to picture the Huskers coming into Columbus and winning, despite what Las Vegas would have you believe. To avoid such a fate, the Buckeyes will probably have to play their most complete game since their road victory in Norman in mid-September.

So, with that in mind, here are five things to watch for on Saturday:

Potential


In the fourth quarter versus Northwestern, the Ohio State passing game came up big when it needed to. JT Barrett hit Noah Brown twice on intermediate routes, including a massive third down conversion late, which helped the Buckeyes seal the win. However, it was an earlier completion to KJ Hill that stood out the most:


A WILD COMPLETION DOWNFIELD APPEARED

Hill’s 34 yard catch-and-run set the Buckeyes up to score what would ultimately be the winning touchdown, and was by far the team’s longest reception of the day. It’s easy to play couch quarterback and yell “DO THIS PLAY AGAIN,” at the coaching staff (who can’t hear you), but it was refreshing to see the Buckeyes strike on an intermediate route, and let one of their superior athletes make a play, rather than the usual incomplete pass 40 yards downfield. It was only one play, but don’t be surprised to see similar concepts incorporated more this week. (Hopefully)

Hucking the ball downfield and hoping a receiver makes a play has been a futile exercise, but for a passing game searching for both efficiency and explosiveness, plays like these will be crucial to unlocking the offense we saw in the Oklahoma and Wisconsin games.

Back to basics


The potential return of consistent passing is a major key to the Buckeyes’ offensive success this week, but they’ll also need to improve what’s been a stagnant running game as of late to keep Nebraska’s defense off balance.

The Buckeyes have averaged a paltry 4.7 yards per carry over their last four games, and haven’t had a 100-yard rusher since Barrett’s 137 against Indiana. With opponents loading the box and daring Ohio State to pass, early downs have become a grind for an offense that prides itself on running the ball effectively. Against Nebraska, there’s a decent chance they’ll be able to do so, and maybe with some extra explosion.

The Huskers’ defense comes into the game ranked a nice (depending on your point of view) 69th in Defensive Rushing S&P+, including 124th in Rushing IsoPPP. They’ve given up 10 runs of 30-plus yards, and if there were ever a game for Ohio State to break out of it’s explosive rushing lull, it’s this one.

Be on the lookout for an improved rushing attack on Saturday, with the possibility of a few explosive runs, especially from Curtis Samuel. (Provided he gets more than like three carries)

Winning up front


One of the bigger stories of Nebraska’s season has been the ridiculous amount of injuries along the offensive line. The injuries, and constant shuffling have played a big role in the Cornhuskers’ running game’s struggles (83rd in Rushing S&P+) and the line has essentially invited opponents into the backfield if they ask nicely enough (110th in Stuff Rate). This should play right into the hand of the Ohio State defense.

The Buckeyes boast one of the best run defenses in the country (3rd in Defensive Rushing S&P+, and are quite skilled at invading opponent’s backfields (1st in stuff rate). The numbers would indicate that Nebraska is going to have an extremely difficult time running the ball, especially on standard downs. That means a lot of 2nd/3rd and longs, which brings us to what will probably decide the game.

Bomb’s away


On this week’s podcast, Hail Varsity’s Erin Sorensen broke down what Nebraska needs to do to be successful on offense tomorrow, and one of those keys was limiting turnovers, especially through the air.

As she put it, every once in a while, quarterback Tommy Armstrong has a tendency to drop back and throw what Cornhuskers fans lovingly call, “YOLO bombs” (The spawn of Rex Grossman’s own legendary quarterbacking philosophy)

Indeed, Armstrong’s 43 career interceptions in three-plus seasons would indicate the profile of a quarterback unafraid to take chances, such as this first down throw against Wisconsin last week:


BAH GAWD THAT’S MALIK HOOKER’S MUSIC

It’s a good bet that Ohio State’s rangy and athletic secondary will take advantage at least once when Armstrong making this type of decision on Saturday, and it’ll could end up being the turning point of the game.

The running game’s recent four game slide has put more pressure on Armstrong to make plays through the air, and he’s thrown six of his seven interceptions in those games as a result. If the Buckeyes consistently put Nebraska into passing situations, the more likely it becomes that Armstrong forces passes, and gives Ohio State’s secondary an opportunity to make a game-changing play.

Four quarters


One of the more frustrating aspects of watching Ohio State the past month has been its lack of consistency over the course of a full game. It’s to be expected of a team this young, but at times the Buckeyes have oscillated between looking dominant (Parts of the Penn State and Wisconsin games) and being downright lost (Also those games, as well as Indiana and Northwestern).

While they may be able to beat Nebraska with another up-and-down performance, playing their first complete game since Oklahoma, —You don’t count, Rutgers— would go a long way in proving their aspirations of winning the Big Ten East and possibly more are still legitimate.

At some point, you play enough games to have established what you are, and maybe they’ve reached that point. Maybe the 2016 Buckeyes are merely a very good —but not great— team, who are just young enough to not be able overcome their inconsistencies and make a run at a title. There’s no shame in that, and no matter what, Ohio State will probably be set up for a big 2017 season. But, Saturday’s game provides them another opportunity to showcase that 2016 can still be more than that.

Nebraska provides an excellent test for where the Buckeyes are at heading into the home stretch, and ultimately, how this season will be remembered. If Ohio State is able play a complete game for the first time since Oklahoma, they probably win comfortably and head into the season’s home stretch with all of their goals very much still in play.

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Top-ranked OLB Gaoteote says Buckeyes set bar high - 247Sports
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Top-ranked OLB Gaoteote says Buckeyes set bar high
247Sports
If the Buckeyes win out, they will obviously have a good chance to make the College Football Playoff as the Big Ten champion, but they could need some help in getting there. With that in mind, here is a guide for who to root for in Week 10 of college ...

and more »

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Preview: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Nebraska - Dayton Daily News
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Preview: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Nebraska
Dayton Daily News
Ohio State notes: The Buckeyes are 15-4 in night games at Ohio Stadium and have won 13 of the last 14. … Ohio State ranks sixth in the nation in total defense (295.5) and scoring defense (15.1 points per game). It's fourth in turnover margin (plus 1 ...

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Forcing turnovers will be key for Ohio State against Nebraska
Colton Denning via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


The Buckeyes will need a rebound performance from the secondary this week.

Despite some of the ups and downs of the past month, Ohio State finds itself in position to accomplish everything it set out to at the beginning of the season.

The loss to Penn State was a downer, but the Buckeyes still control their own destiny in the Big Ten East, and with their No. 6 ranking in 2016’s initial College Football Playoff Top 25, are more than positioned to make the playoff if they take care of business. They have an excellent opportunity to reward the committee’s faith in them this week against No. 10, Nebraska.

On this week’s Hangout in the Holyland, Colton talks with Erin Sorensen of Hail Varsity, about all things Nebraska, including:

• How the Huskers have rallied around each other this season, despite the tragic offseason death of punter Sam Foltz, and the backlash to some of their players’ national anthem protest.
• Nebraska’s strength’s and weaknesses, and why quarterback Tommy Armstrong holds the key to the Huskers success.
• How the players have bought into Head Coach Mike Riley’s philosophy in year two, and why that’s been a catalyst for the secondary’s resurgence.

They then break down this week’s game, why Armstrong turning the ball over (or not) will be the determining factor, Nebraska needing to continue to limit Ohio State’s deep passing game, and why they both think there’s a very real chance the Huskers leave Ohio Stadium with a win.

You can find the podcast on our iTunes page, and we strongly encourage reviews, comments, criticisms, etc. to help us deliver the best possible audio product. The more we hear from you, the better we can make it. We’re also on Soundcloud, the SB Nation podcast page, and you can subscribe via RSS on your Android and Windows Phone devices here.

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BM5: 'Biggest recruiting weekend of the year'; Bashing Beck? - 247Sports
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


BM5: 'Biggest recruiting weekend of the year'; Bashing Beck?
247Sports
“Coming in, I'm pretty sure a bunch of young guys are going to get overtaken by the moment,” he said of what the 42 Buckeye freshmen will experience on Saturday night. “Coming out, seeing that. It's nothing that you can really prepare for because I don ...

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Buckeyes look to shuck Huskers - The Steubenville Herald-Star
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Buckeyes look to shuck Huskers
The Steubenville Herald-Star
Like maybe the players and the Buckeyes' fans. Revenue stream? The last time I checked, Ohio State didn't need to organize a telethon to buy cleats for the lads in scarlet and gray. The Big Ten didn't ask my advice about scheduling Friday night games ...
Big Ten moving six games in 2017 season to Friday night lightsColumbus Dispatch
Ohio State's offense hasn't dropped off, its defense hasLandof10.com
Urban Meyer, Ohio State Football Don't Have Much Reaction to News of Big Ten Friday Night GamesEleven Warriors
cleveland.com -BuckeyeGrove.com (subscription) -ESPN (blog)
all 223 news articles »

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Ohio State vs. Nebraska 2016: Game preview, prediction, and 6 things to know
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


Ohio State enters the final month of the college football regular season and will hope to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive when they host Nebraska on Saturday night.

It wasn’t pretty, but Ohio State found a way past a game Northwestern team last week. Now the Buckeyes will have another tough challenge under the lights at Ohio Stadium on Saturday night when they host Nebraska. The Cornhuskers will be itching to get back on the winning track after they lost at Wisconsin in overtime on Saturday night. The loss snapped an eight-game winning streak, which was Nebraska’s longest in 15 years.

This marks the first meeting between the schools since 2012, when Ohio State beat Nebraska 63-38 in Columbus. Saturday’s game will be just the third meeting between the Buckeyes and Cornhuskers as Big Ten foes. Ohio State holds a 3-1 advantage in the brief series, with the only Nebraska win coming in 2011 when the Cornhuskers rebounded from a 27-6 deficit to beat the Buckeyes 34-27. The schools will become more familiar with each other in the near future, with games scheduled each year from now until 2019.

Urban Meyer teams continued their trend of bouncing back quickly from losses, improving to 23-5 during the head coach’s 15 years of coaching. The Buckeyes jumped out quickly on the Wildcats, scoring 17 points on their first three possessions. From there the offense became stale, as Northwestern was able to eventually tie the game at 17. Curtis Samuel again came to the rescue, with his three-yard touchdown run with less than 10 minutes remaining giving Ohio State the lead for good.

Now Meyer will be looking to improve on a tremendous record against ranked teams. Since he took over at Ohio State, Meyer has gone 14-3 against top 25 teams, and he is 35-13 overall against top 25 teams as a head coach. All three of his losses at Ohio State against ranked teams have come against top 10 teams, as Meyer is 6-3 against top 10 squads, and 17-6 during his coaching career. Meyer will also be trying to add to the record he set last week. The win over Northwestern gave 161 wins in his first 15 seasons as a head coach, passing Bob Stoops’ 160 wins from 1999-2013.

Nebraska will be finishing off a tough two-game road stretch. Last week’s loss to Wisconsin in Madison gave the Cornhuskers their first loss of the season, and now Nebraska has to travel to Columbus this week. Even with the loss, the Cornhuskers sit atop the Big Ten West, but only a game separates Nebraska from Wisconsin, Northwestern, Minnesota, and Iowa. With games still left against the Golden Gophers and Hawkeyes, Nebraska can’t afford any other slip ups if they have any designs on heading to Indianapolis in early December for the Big Ten Championship Game.

The loss to Wisconsin continued the trend of close losses for Nebraska. Dating back to 2014, the loss 10 losses by the Cornhuskers have come by 10 points or less. Nebraska did show a lot of fight against the Badgers, rallying from a 17-7 deficit in the fourth quarter to force overtime. Last year was especially tough for the Cornhuskers in close games, with their seven losses coming by a combined 31 points in Mike Riley’s first season in Lincoln.

The biggest improvement for Nebraska this season has been on the defensive side of the football. After allowing just three opponents to 17 points or fewer this year, the Cornhuskers have already held five opponents to 17 points or less this year. Nebraska has been especially tough in Big Ten play, with all five of their opponents failing to score more than 23 points. This could be the right time for Nebraska to catch Ohio State, since the Buckeyes have had issues on offense over the past few games.

Ohio State’s biggest advantages


Bend but don’t break. The Buckeyes haven’t been as crisp lately on defense as they were earlier in the year, but they still aren’t giving up many points. Last week Ohio State gave up 400 yards at home for the first time since 2014, but the Buckeyes were able to hold Northwestern to just 20 points, but it could’ve been more if the defense didn’t tighten up inside the red zone, with Northwestern settling for field goals on two possessions inside the 20-yard line. For the year the Buckeyes have only allowed opponents just eight touchdowns on 24 possessions, and on seven of those red zone possessions opponents have come away with no points.

Ohio State will have to continue their stinginess inside the red zone if they want to hand Nebraska their second straight loss, as the Cornhuskers have scored touchdowns on 20 of their 33 red zone possessions, and have added field goals on another seven possessions. Nebraska will likely find the sledding tough if they try to run the football inside the red zone, as Ohio State has allowed just three rushing touchdowns this season.

The Buckeyes should be able to have a little more success trying to shut down Nebraska inside the red zone than previous opponents of the Cornhuskers this year because of the talent Ohio State possesses in all three levels of the defense. The defensive line with players like Tyquan Lewis and Nick Bosa creating pressure in the backfield should be able hurry Tommy Armstrong Jr. and possibly allow the linebackers and defensive backs to create some turnovers, something they have done so well all year long. Ohio State has 11 interceptions on the season, with Malik Hooker leading the team with four picks.

A balanced attack. Nebraska’s defense is considerably better than it was last year, allowing just 205 yards per game through the air after giving up 290 yards per game passing in 2015, but they’ll face their toughest test of the season on defense against the Buckeyes. Even though Ohio State hasn’t been as strong the last few games as they were to start the season, the Buckeyes are still very balanced on offense, which makes it a challenge to slow them down.

Ohio State’s has seen some growing pains in the passing game, averaging just 220 yards per game this year, but Curtis Samuel is still a big threat catching passes out of the backfield, leading Ohio State with 44 catches this year. Noah Brown is second on the team with 24 catches, and he is leading the team with six touchdown catches. The Buckeyes have used a variety of weapons in the passing game this year, with 15 players having caught a pass through eight games, but they just need a few receivers to step up on a more consistent basis, which could open up the passing game more.

There’s no question that Ohio State’s bread and butter is their running game, with Mike Weber, Samuel, and J.T. Barrett all having accumulated at least 500 yards rushing so far this year. Weber is tops on the team, with the redshirt freshman having rolled up 770 rushing yards through eight games. If Ohio State blends the physical rushing style of Weber, along with the big play ability of Samuel, there aren’t many teams in the country that can slow them down.

Light up the night. Even if this matchup was taking place during the afternoon on Saturday there’s no question that Ohio Stadium would be rocking, but the volume will be turned up even more because this contest will take place in primetime. Since arriving at Ohio State, Urban Meyer is 7-1 in games starting after 5 p.m. EST, with the lone loss coming in 2014 against Virginia Tech. The Buckeyes already own a victory against Nebraska under the lights at Ohio Stadium, as the 2012 game between the schools was also played in primetime.

Even before Meyer’s arrival in Columbus, something special usually happens under the lights at The Horseshoe, with the Buckeyes owning a 14-4 record all-time in games starting after 5 p.m. EST. Even in the majority of the losses the margin of victory by the opponent was razor thin, with Ohio State losing three of those losses coming by three points. The only exception was in the loss to Virginia Tech, where the Hokies won 35-21.

With Ohio State knowing they need to win the rest of their games, including the showdown with Michigan in Columbus later this month, the Buckeyes will be playing with their backs against the wall on Saturday night. This is something Ohio State has had to deal with recently, as a second loss in 2014 after the loss to Virginia Tech would have dashed any hopes the Buckeyes had of making the College Football Playoff. Ohio State will be ready to go on Saturday night, and it will be up to Nebraska to respond.

Nebraska’s biggest advantages


Tommy terrific. Tommy Armstrong Jr. continues to rewrite some of Nebraska’s quarterback records. Last week the senior became the 11th Nebraska player to eclipse 10,000 yards of total offense, and with just 53 yards he’ll break Taylor Martinez’s school record of 10,233 total yards of offense. Armstrong Jr. already broke Martinez’s record of 56 career touchdown passes earlier this year and he currently has 64 touchdowns for his career at Nebraska.

It isn’t just through the air where Armstrong Jr. can hurt opponents, as his 1,726 career rushing yards are sixth among Nebraska quarterbacks. The senior has 22 career rushing touchdowns, which makes him the 10th Nebraska quarterback with at least 20 touchdowns. Currently Armstrong Jr. is the only active FBS quarterback who has amassed 8,000 career passing yards and 1,500 rushing yards.

Coming into the game against the Buckeyes, some of Nebraska’s receivers are getting healthy, which will help Armstrong Jr. After missing the previous two games, Jordan Westerkamp returned to action against Wisconsin. Last year Westerkamp paced Nebraska’s passing attack with 65 catches and 918 yards. Tight end Cethan Carter should return after missing the last three games with an elbow injury. Sophomore Stanley Morgan Jr. has stepped up with the injury, as he leads the Cornhuskers with 23 receptions on the year, and his five catches against Wisconsin were a career-high.

Team turnover. What allowed Nebraska to make a comeback and force overtime in Madison last week were the turnovers they created. Nate Gerry had two interceptions against the Badgers, giving him 13 interceptions for his career, which is one shy of tying the school record. This was the second game this year in which Gerry has intercepted two passes, with the first coming against Wyoming in the second game of the season.

Gerry isn’t the only Nebraska defender who has been opportunistic this year, as Keyan Williams is tied with Gerry for the team lead with four interceptions. After having just 10 interceptions as a team last year, Nebraska already has 15 interceptions this season, which is the most in the country.

After posting a -12 turnover margin last year, Nebraska is sitting at +5 in turnover margin through eight games this year. Just once in the last 12 years has Nebraska posted a positive turnover margin for the season, as back in 2009 the Cornhuskers were +5. When Nebraska is able to post a positive turnover margin in a game they are unbeatable of late, winning their last 18 games, with six of those wins coming under Mike Riley. Not only does Nebraska capitalize on the turnovers they force, scoring 59 points on 16 takeaways this year, but they also tighten up on defense after committing a turnover, only allowing 18 points on 11 turnovers.

Saving their best for last. Nebraska has excelled in the fourth quarter this year, outscoring opponents 108-13 in the final quarter. The 95 points Nebraska have outscored opponents by in the fourth quarter is by far the best in the country. A big reason for the huge point differential in the final quarter is because the Cornhuskers are dominating time of possession, averaging 10:05 of possession in the final quarter.

The Cornhuskers have been able to hold on to the football so much in the fourth quarter because they have three players who are effective in the rushing game. Tyrell Newby, Devine Ozigbo, and Tommy Armstrong Jr. have all rushed for at least 350 yards this season. The trio has also accounted for 16 rushing touchdowns through eight games.

In contrast, Ohio State has been good in the fourth quarter, outscoring opponents 69-27 in the final quarter, but lately they haven’t been quite as strong. In the past three games the Buckeyes have been outscored 27-17 in the fourth quarter, with the worst of those performances coming against Penn State, where Ohio State was outscored 17-0 over the final 15 minutes.

Summary


F/+ Projection: Ohio State 35, Nebraska 20

Win Probability: Ohio State 81.5%

The numbers say Ohio State should win on Saturday night, but Nebraska will hang around a bit. With the recent struggles of the Ohio State offense, along with how well Nebraska has played earlier in the season, this doesn’t look like it will be a blowout like in 2012. If the final score ends up being close to this projection, it would mark the first time under Mike Riley in which Nebraska has lost a game by more than 10 points.

What will likely be the biggest downfall for Nebraska in this one is the fact that they are on the backend of back-to-back road games. Ohio State had to deal with this earlier in the year, when they weren’t able to earn a victory over Penn State after going to overtime in Madison the previous Saturday. The physical game against the Badgers last week, along with the travel to Columbus this week, should allow for the Buckeyes to win here by a couple touchdowns.

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Ohio State football | Q&A with former Buckeyes running back Pepe Pearson - Columbus Dispatch
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Ohio State football | Q&A with former Buckeyes running back Pepe Pearson
Columbus Dispatch
Dispatch sports reporter/columnist Rob Oller each week finds a former Buckeye for a question-and-answer session. Pepe Pearson Age: 40. Years at Ohio State: 1994-97. Current residence: Huntington, West Virginia Pepe Pearson finished his career at Ohio ...


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Gameday+ | Ohio State vs. Nebraska: Who has the edge? - Columbus Dispatch
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Gameday+ | Ohio State vs. Nebraska: Who has the edge?
Columbus Dispatch
When Cornhuskers run. Edge: OHIO STATE. The Buckeyes are giving up only 3.4 yards per carry and Nebraska's run game has been inconsistent. When Cornhuskers pass. Edge: OHIO STATE. Tommy Armstrong has reduced his interceptions this year, but ...


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Buckeyes look to shuck Huskers - The Daily Times
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Buckeyes look to shuck Huskers
The Daily Times
Like maybe the players and the Buckeyes' fans. Revenue stream? The last time I checked, Ohio State didn't need to organize a telethon to buy cleats for the lads in scarlet and gray. The Big Ten didn't ask my advice about scheduling Friday night games ...
Ohio State's offense hasn't dropped off, its defense hasLandof10.com
Big Ten moving six games in 2017 season to Friday night lightsColumbus Dispatch
Urban Meyer, Ohio State Football Don't Have Much Reaction to News of Big Ten Friday Night GamesEleven Warriors
cleveland.com -ESPN (blog) -BuckeyeGrove.com (subscription)
all 223 news articles »

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Ohio State’s visitor list continues to grow for Saturday night
Caleb Houser via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


Countless star recruits to be taking in the Buckeyes-Cornhuskers contest.

Another week brings another primetime match up for Ohio State. When the Nebraska Cornhuskers come to town, they will be in for a huge night as the Buckeyes night game brings new alternate uniforms and a massive amount of star power. As discussed yesterday, the visitor list is more than impressive, but with another day passing, that list has continued to grow. Easily Ohio State’s biggest recruiting weekend of the season, there’s a whopping 12 five-star recruits from the 2017, 2018 and 2019 classes planning to be on-hand this Saturday night.

Top RB making the trip to OSU


Ohio State has been the cream of the crop when it comes to running backs in recent years. Developing NFL caliber talent is exactly what Urban Meyer and his staff has been able to do and with their success in recruiting, that doesn’t seem to be stopping any time soon.

Yesterday, it was announced publicly that the nation’s top 2018 running back, Zamir White, would be making the trip to Columbus from Laurinburg, N.C. for the primetime match-up versus Nebraska. Sitting as North Carolina’s top prospect, and the 4th best prospect at any position in the country, it’s easy to see why Zamir’s visit is huge for the Buckeyes.

White currently holds 24 offers from nearly every top school in the country. As things stand now, according to the 247sports crystal ball predictions, Zamir is mostly connected with Georgia, Clemson and the home-state North Carolina Tar Heels. Ohio State will look to start building a relationship with the five-star this weekend and if anyone can prove that the running back is the focal point of an offense, it’s clearly Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes.

PSU commit checking out OSU


When it comes to Penn State, there’s no love-loss at all. Ohio State still controls its own destiny to some extent, but make no mistake about it, the loss in State College, Penn. is fuel to the Buckeyes.

This weekend, one of the more important future Nittany Lion commits will be heading to Columbus to visit Ohio State. Micah Parsons, the five-star defensive end from Harrisburg, Penn. made it public yesterday via his Twitter that he would be in attendance this weekend. Accompanying Micah on the trip, 4-star Harrisburg prospect Shaquon Anderson-Butts.

While Parsons is currently committed to Penn State, Urban Meyer and Larry Johnson will certainly do their best to show the five-star what Ohio State can offer and how they would easily benefit from Micah’s abilities. This weekend is certainly a step in the right direction.

Johnson making the trip with Wade


It’s not easy to decipher the top prospect in Ohio State’s 2017 recruiting class. However, one of the top prospects on the defensive side of the ball in the 2017 class is easily Shaun Wade. Committing to Ohio State back in January of 2015, the longtime commit will be in attendance this weekend for the Nebraska game. With him, current Trinity Christian teammate Tyreke Johnson will make the trip.

Johnson, a five-star prospect, is currently the nation’s No. 2 safety prospect and the second best prospect overall in the state of Florida for 2018. With Florida State thought to be the leader for Johnson, Urban Meyer will have to strengthen the relationship between the two parties, but with Wade already an Ohio State commit, Tyreke certainly doesn’t have to look far for feelings regarding the Buckeyes.


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Ohio State football | Malik Hooker takes on bigger role in stopping run - Columbus Dispatch
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Ohio State football | Malik Hooker takes on bigger role in stopping run
Columbus Dispatch
Instead of having a cornerback try to run the width of the field to keep up with Peavy, the Buckeyes decided to have safety Malik Hooker — until then a blossoming, pass-intercepting safety — roll up and ground the jet. The first time the Badgers ...


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Cardale Jones gets a new throwback Buckeye jersey - 247Sports
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Cardale Jones gets a new throwback Buckeye jersey
247Sports
J.T. Barrett may have been Ohio State's model for the Buckeyes' alternate jersey for Saturday's game with Nebraska, but Nike didn't forget about the quarterback's former teammate. Cardale Jones, who took over when Barrett was injured against Michigan ...

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Ohio State a heavy favorite over Nebraska despite recent struggles - Sports Illustrated
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Ohio State a heavy favorite over Nebraska despite recent struggles
Sports Illustrated
The Ohio State Buckeyes are 17–1 straight up over their last 18 home games but just 4–10 against the spread over their last 14. The Buckeyes will look to extend their home winning streak to six games Saturday with a win over the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Preview and PredictionAthlonSports.com
Breaking down the BuckeyesLincoln Journal Star
Ohio State football: Buckeyes find positives in perceived offensive strugglesAkron Beacon Journal
Landof10.com -Columbus Dispatch
all 285 news articles »

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Meyer says Buckeyes are focused on immediate future - Nebraska Radio Network
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Meyer says Buckeyes are focused on immediate future
Nebraska Radio Network
Ohio State coach Urban Meyer won't be watching when the first College Football Playoff rankings are released this evening. After putting up some gaudy numbers in a 5-0 start to the season the Buckeye offense has sputtered in recent weeks and they take ...

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Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Preview and Prediction - AthlonSports.com
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Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Preview and Prediction
AthlonSports.com
The formula for Ohio State is simple: Win out and the Buckeyes will be one of the top four teams in the nation. Of course, that path isn't easy. Michigan comes to Columbus on Nov. 26, and there's a road date at Michigan State on Nov. 19. Ohio State ...
Ohio State a heavy favorite over Nebraska despite recent strugglesSports Illustrated
Breaking down the BuckeyesLincoln Journal Star
Noah Brown consistent threat for Ohio State BuckeyesMyDaytonDailyNews
Landof10.com -247Sports
all 278 news articles »

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Senators Trade For Mike Condon, Return Thomas Chabot to Junior
T6S via our good friends at Buckeye Battle Cry
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


OTTAWA, ON – OCTOBER 11: Goaltender Mike Condon #39 of the Montreal Canadiens protects his net and wins his first ever NHL game against the Ottawa Senators at Canadian Tire Centre on October 11, 2015 in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. The Montreal Canadiens defeated the Ottawa Senators 3-1. (Photo by Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images)

In light of recent events that saw Andrew Hammond land on the LTIR with a groin injury and Nicholle Anderson’s cancer diagnosis that necessitated having her husband, Craig, taking a leave of absence from the team, the Ottawa Senators announced yesterday that they dealt a 2017 fifth round pick to the Pittsburgh Penguins for goaltender Mike Condon.

On the surface, it’s the kind of deal you would expect Pierre Dorion to make.

If there’s one thing the Senators general manager hasn’t been shy to do, it’s flip or add draft picks to a sweeten a deal if he believes it improves the short-term competitiveness of his club.

Condon offers the Senators more NHL experience than either of their internal alternatives – Matt O’Connor and Chris Driedger — but whether he actually represents an upgrade remains to be seen.

Fans may recall Condon’s performance at the beginning of the 2015-16 season when the unheralded backup stepped in admirably after Carey Price sustained a knee injury.

Condon thrived through his first 15 appearances, but by early December, his game fizzled and he’s been struggling to find it since.

First 15 Games Last 41 Games
Record 9-2-3 12-23-3
GAA 2.11 2.91
SV% .918 .899
SO 0 1

Granted, Montreal was a bit of a tire fire last season and to Condon’s credit, he has posted some decent minor league numbers. So maybe there’s something there that the Senators feel confident in, but if Condon continues to play at the sub-replacement level he’s exhibited in the last 41 games, this deal will be one that fans equate with trading an asset for a poor stop-gap solution.

I don’t know, personally speaking, that Condon has NHL experience or has played in 53 more NHL games than Driedger doesn’t do much to placate my concerns. I just want to see the most talented alternative play.

Of course, that’s easy for me to say since I’m not the general manager who was issued a mandate by the owner to reach the postseason. I don’t have my reputation or job on the line and knowing that, maybe it would be difficult to roll the dice and bank on a young goaltender like Driedger to stem the tide until Anderson eventually comes back from his leave of absence. But as Hammond has shown, you don’t necessarily have to have NHL experience to be successful at the game’s highest level.

The biggest cause for concern is that no one is really sure when Anderson will return. Having already returned to the team at the encouragement of Nicholle, it could be some time before the process and test results arrive and the Anderson family makes its decision on how they will move forward.

Knowing that, maybe the organization is really concerned with entrusting Driedger and O’Connor to win games for a playoff bubble team. Moreover, the organization is probably mindful of the impact that would be created by having its two AHL goalies play in Ottawa concurrently. But holy shit, Binghamton’s all sorts of terrible and it’s not like that team’s welfare should come at the expense of the parent club or that there’s a slew of blue chip prospects down there whose development would irreparably suffer from playing in front of lower caliber netminders.

Yesterday’s trade wasn’t the only bit of housekeeping for the Senators. The organization also announced that it had returned Thomas Chabot to the QMJHL Saint John Sea Dogs.

After a strong performance in training camp and preseason, Chabot only wound up playing seven minutes and nine seconds for the Senators in the lone regular season game that he got into.

He wasn’t provided much of an opportunity to assert himself or prove that he belonged, but his situation was compounded by the fact that the coaching staff played up the performance of the defencemen ahead of Chabot on the draft chart.

Although it’s disingenuous to suggest that the second pairing of Dion Phaneuf and Cody Ceci have played well when the two have been a tire fire, the reality of Ottawa’s situation is that neither of these players is going to come out of the lineup for Chabot.

So what that does is create a situation in which the Senators have to dress 11 forwards and seven defencemen or Mark Borowiecki or Chris Wideman have to come out to make room for Chabot.

Fortunately for those third pairing guys, they’ve played well this season.

Admittedly, it’s a small sample size, but per Corsica.Hockey, Wideman and Borowiecki have the first and second highest Corsi percentages on the team and when they’ve been on the ice at five-on-five together, the Senators have outscored, outshot and outchanced the opposition.

The risk is that the Senators’ handling of Chabot, coupled with their investment in the third pairing’s play is that should Borowiecki’s underlying metrics begin falling in line with his historical norms, the Senators may have put themselves in a situation in which they demoted the superior player — relative to Borowiecki or the alternatives in Binghamton — during a season in which they’re trying to win now and now can no longer recall the player until there’s an injury emergency or Chabot’s junior season is over.

As much hope as I want to place in Guy Boucher to get the most out of his players, it’s hard not to wonder whether this is a decision the Senators could ultimately regret if Borowiecki regresses to his career norms.

I mean, there are obvious tangible benefits to Chabot returning to junior — he can dominate that level, he will opportunity to play at the World Juniors, the Senators won’t be rushing his development, blah blah blah — but, it’s hard not to dream on the possibility that Chabot would be an upgrade when the team is trying to win games down the stretch.

Other News and Notes:

• According to a Bruce Garrioch report, the Senators could be closer to reaching an agreement with the NCC in regards to their LeBreton Flats proposal. “The RendezVous LeBreton group — led by Senators’ owner Eugene Melnyk — submitted responses to questions on portions of their bid before a deadline that was set for Monday.”
• Mark Stone (neck) and Chris Wideman (upper-body injury) were scratched for tonight’s game versus the Hurricanes.

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Women's volleyball: Badgers sweep Buckeyes at St. John - OSU - The Lantern
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Women's volleyball: Badgers sweep Buckeyes at St. John
OSU - The Lantern
OSU would go on their own four-point run late in the second set to retake the lead after a brief Badger advantage, but errors from all points of play from the Buckeyes evened the score at 20-20 and gave the Badgers hope of a comeback. Wisconsin senior ...

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Buckeyes in the NBA: Russell's 23 Points Helps Lakers Hand Hawks First Loss of Season - Eleven Warriors
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".


Buckeyes in the NBA: Russell's 23 Points Helps Lakers Hand Hawks First Loss of Season
Eleven Warriors
There were some positives for Cleveland sports on Wednesday, despite the Indians losing a heartbreaking Game 7 of the World Series. With the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks both losing on Wednesday, the Cleveland Cavaliers are the lone unbeaten in ...

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The Ohio State hype video is here for the Nebraska game to prepare you for the playoff push
Harry Lyles Jr. via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


Let’s do this.


The first College Football Playoff rankings were released on Tuesday, and Ohio State came in at No. 6. The Buckeyes’ foe this week, the Nebraska Cornhuskers are ranked No. 10, and a win would help the Buckeyes maintain their path to the playoff.

Ohio State’s had some struggles recently, but as we saw last season, they were able to turn it on at the end of the year. Hopefully the Buckeyes are able to do the same this season, and a dominating win over Nebraska would be a great start.

If you weren’t already pumped for the game on Saturday, this should definitely do the trick.

Go Bucks.

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Ohio State linebacker Raekwon McMillan knows that stats don’t tell the whole story
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


The junior’s tackles are down this year, but McMillan is focused on being a leader on defense.

“Raekwon, he’s one of the most mature people I’ve ever seen come walking into a program as a young person. Obviously he’s a captain in his third year, a guy that has incredible toughness and gives us everything that he’s got.”

Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer via Bill Landis, Cleveland.com


Sometimes expectations can be a little too high. Last year McMillan had 119 tackles over 13 games. This year McMillan has just 51 tackles through eight games. While last week McMillan was named a semifinalist for the Butkus Award, for some Ohio State fans the play of McMillan has been disappointing this year. The criticism from Buckeye fans is a little unjust, considering the amount of talent that surrounded McMillan on the defense last year. This year McMillan is the leader and offenses are accounting for him more, so it’s natural that some of his stats are going to dip.

With being captain, McMillan has plenty of more responsibility on the field this year. Now McMillan has to get the defensive call from Luke Fickell, relay it to his teammates, align the defensive line and defensive backs, and then analyze the opponents before the snap. Even though his tackle numbers might be down this year, it doesn’t mean that McMillan isn’t making plays on the field. In some instances where many thought McMillan shouldn’t have been in a certain area to make a play, it wasn’t in his assignment to be there. The junior is still one of the best linebackers in the country and with all the responsibilities he has on the field, he’s playing just fine, even though there are some that think otherwise.

“I never knew I was fast. But everybody said I was fast. That was really exciting to hear that.”

Ohio State h-back Curtis Samuel via Ralph D. Russo, Associated Press


From a young age there wasn’t a question that Curtis Samuel was talented enough to play major college football. The question was if any of the major programs would find him in New York City. Samuel started walking when he was seven months old and from then he has been a bundle of energy. Football was suggested as a good outlet for Samuel to try and put his energy to good use. So far things have worked out well since now he is the most dynamic player on one of college football’s top team.

When he was growing up, Samuel wanted to be a running back but his high school coach knew that Samuel could be even more than a running back because of his skill set. Samuel’s size makes it so that you don’t want to use him as a feature back because of the pounding he might take. The junior has fit well into being utilized more like a Percy Harvin or Reggie Bush. With talent like that, major college football programs will find you, even if you are in New York City, which isn’t a traditional recruiting hotbed. The 2017 Rivals top 250 only has one player from New York City on the list. With the success had with Samuel, Urban Meyer has paid a little more attention to New York City, bringing in freshman safety Jahsen Wint in this year’s recruiting class. At this rate Meyer might be spending even more time in New York City.

“As a player, I’ve got to do what play is called and execute that to the best of my ability. On a team like this, it could be anybody any game. You saw against Oklahoma, it happened to be me with four touchdowns. We have so much explosive power it could be somebody different every game. Part of that is staying patient and doing everything you can to make an impact.”

Ohio State wide receiver Noah Brown via David Jablonski, Dayton Daily News


After breaking his leg in preseason practice last year, Noah Brown burst back onto the scene with four touchdown catches in the win over Oklahoma this year. Ohio State’s passing game has been inconsistent this year, but there’s no question that when it is working, Brown is the Buckeyes best wide receiver. What Brown has done so far this season is even more impressive considering that he didn’t come into the season at 100 percent as he recovered from last year’s injury, but he has says he is now at full strength.

While Brown’s performance against the Sooners got all the headlines, especially with his ridiculous touchdown catch before halftime, the most important catch Brown has made all season might have come in overtime against Wisconsin, with his touchdown catch ended up being the game-winner. Even with the struggles Ohio State has had with their passing game at times this year, Brown knows that all he can do is stay patient and execute when called upon. Now that he’s healthy, and with the amount of talent Ohio State has on offense, it’s likely Buckeye fans will see Brown making a big impact sooner rather than later.

“The reason we’re not hitting the big plays is we don’t force balls here. We just don’t do that. We have to get better separation (from receivers) and the few times we have, it’s been either protection (breakdowns) or we’ve misfired.”

Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer via Bill Rabinowitz, The Columbus Dispatch


On Saturday night inside Ohio Stadium there are a few similarities between the two starting quarterbacks. Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett and Nebraska’s Tommy Armstrong Jr. both are from Texas, around the same size, and both can hurt you with their arm and legs. That is where the similarities end. Barrett usually looks to run first and then pass, while Armstrong Jr. is the opposite, using his arms to trying and break defenses. With that, the Nebraska quarterback is prone to more mistakes. After throwing 16 interceptions last year, Armstrong Jr. has seven interceptions this year, while Barrett has only thrown four picks.

After having the luxury of Ezekiel Elliott at running back last year, the Ohio State offense has tightened up a bit this year because a lot of their skill position players are so young. With defenses having to key on Elliott last year, along with Michael Thomas, Braxton Miller, and Jalin Marshall at wide receivers, the Buckeyes were able to try and explore the deeper passing game some more. With defenses playing softer coverage this year against Ohio State, the Buckeyes haven’t taken as many deep shots. More of the same might be on display for Barrett and Ohio State this week, especially against a Nebraska team that is leading the country in interceptions.

STICK TO SPORTS

• Ohio State president Michael Drake getting raise, bonus.
• Dick’s Last Resort didn’t last too long in the Arena District.
• Honestly, who uses utensils to eat fried chicken?
• Proof that Parks and Recreation knows all.
• Russia granted Steven Seagal citizenship because sure.

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Ohio State will likely have another close game against Nebraska
Chad Peltier via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


Nebraska's weaknesses don't align very well with Ohio State's strengths.

Another week, another ranked matchup. Nebraska is Ohio State’s fourth top-25 S&P+ opponent this season, but the Buckeyes at least benefit from a home field matchup -- hopefully with a more inspired effort than last week's closer-than-expected win over Northwestern.

National perception has cooled some on Ohio State, as the offense has shown a surprising decline in rushing efficiency along with a lack of an explosive passing game. While there are several specific matchups that Ohio State can exploit, many of their main strengths don't align with Nebraska's weaknesses.

Avg team talent Turnover margin Net explosiveness (10+) Net explosiveness (20+) Net IsoPPP
Ohio State 91.43 +10 +44 +11 -.06
Nebraska 86.19 +5 +23 +8 -.06


Looking at the volatility ceiling and floor data below, you can see two things. First, Ohio State is one of the most volatile teams in the country (118th). Second, Ohio State has a much higher ceiling than Nebraska, but its floor is roughly the same, meaning that there is a lot of room for a close game or an upset unless the Buckeyes play above their average. In the box plot below, you can ignore the first and third quartiles of the box itself -- the whiskers represent the floor and ceiling, and the box line represents the average S&P+ margin.

S&P+ margin Volatility Floor Ceiling
Ohio State 25.4 27.7 (118th) -2.3 53.1
Nebraska 12.4 17.3 (48th) -4.9 29.7




When Ohio State has the ball

S&P+ Rush S&P+ Rush SR Rush IsoPPP Pass S&P+ Pass SR Pass IsoPPP Avg FP Drives
Ohio State 14 3 54.6%(3) 70 50 38.8%(86) 43 32.9(17) 5.78(7)
Nebraska 23 69 36.9%(23) 124 24 40.4%(66) 5 27.5(31) 3.59(14)

• The big question this week will be whether the Buckeyes will be able to run the ball on the Nebraska defense. On (the advanced stats) paper, the Huskers have only the 69th-ranked opponent-adjusted run defense -- but in unadjusted rushing success rate, their defense is top-25, allowing just around 37% of opponent runs as efficient towards picking up a first down. There are two reasons for the difference between the Huskers' opponent-adjusted ranking and their rushing success rate. First, the quality of competition is a big factor. The Huskers have held all but three teams to under 4.3 yards per carry and only two teams have rushed for over 200 yards -- Wisconsin and Oregon. Oregon ran for 7.2 yards per carry and 336 total rushing yards. Neither of those teams has a rushing offense like Ohio State's. Second, Nebraska's main problem in run defense is that they allow a high number of explosive runs. The front seven isn't great getting in to the backfield, stuffing only 19.5% of runs (62nd), but they limit most runs to under five yards (19th in opportunity rate). The problem for the Huskers defense is that opposing running backs have tended to turn any opportunity they do get into an explosive play. Even the unadvanced total rushing stats show this too: Nebraska is 19th in runs of 5+ yards, a respectable 30th in runs of 10+ yards, but tied for 59th in runs of 30+ yards.
• So what does that mean for Ohio State? That weakness doesn't exactly play in to Ohio State's hands. First, all year the Buckeyes' run game has been far better at producing efficient but non-explosive runs. Second, one of the major trends we've seen over the last four weeks is that the offense's rushing efficiency has declined. Potentially because of the lack of balance from the passing game, the steadiness of the run game has also been hurt and Ohio State hasn't had a 100-yard rusher since Mike Weber hit the mark against Rutgers. Curtis Samuel is certainly capable of producing electrifying runs (and Weber is too, just not nearly as often as Samuel), so we could be in store for a moderately efficient rushing performance -- somewhere around a 52% rushing success rate -- that's broken up by the occasional 30-yard carry.
• Nebraska's pass defense is almost the opposite of its run defense -- great opponent-adjusted overall pass defense that prevents big plays (fifth in IsoPPP), but allows a number of shorter, efficient passes. Most opponents average a little over 6 yards per attempt against Nebraska. Last week's gameplan -- hitting the edges with quick screens, flares, and swing passes on standard downs -- is likely what we'll against Nebraska as well.
• The other takeaway from the Nebraska pass defense is that their defensive backs -- particularly upperclassmen safeties Nathan Gerry and Kieron Williams -- are ball hawks. Those two safeties alone have eight interceptions this season. The defensive line hasn't created a ton of havoc outside of senior end Ross Dzuris (4.5 sacks, 7.5 TFLs), but the safeties have been excellent at flipping the field through interceptions.
• Finally, Nebraska is excellent in red zone defense, ranking 30th in red zone touchdown percentage (52.6%) and 14th in average points allowed per scoring opportunity. This could lead to a field goal try or two that otherwise would be a touchdown against a worse defense.

When Nebraska has the ball

S&P+ Rush S&P+ Rush SR Rush IsoPPP Pass S&P+ Pass SR Pass IsoPPP Avg FP Drives
Ohio State 7 18 35.4%(17) 83 8 34.5%(13) 75 25.5(7) 3.78(21)
Nebraska 37 83 45.3%(45) 122 24 42.8%(46) 13 33.3(13) 4.92(50)

• Nebraska's offense hinges on Tommy Armstrong and the passing game, and even further, it hinges on the explosive passing game. Armstrong completes just 53% of his passes and as a 42.8% success rate (which is still better than Ohio State's), but the Huskers rank 13th in passing IsoPPP, meaning that the passes they do complete are often fairly explosive. Two of Armstrong's top receiving targets average over 20 yards per catch (though one of them has just a 39% catch rate). Ohio State's pass defense rarely allows successful passes (13th in passing success rate), but has a tendency to allow big passes when they are completed. The potential best-case scenario for the Huskers is to replicate Penn State's explosiveness with a little better efficiency. This is the primary concern for Ohio State's defense -- the Buckeyes have shown a consistent ability to limit the run and the pass, but they are susceptible to the occasional big play. Enough big plays -- whether its Clayton Thorson running for 35 yards, Corey Clement hitting the edge, or Trace McSorley beating man coverage on consecutive plays -- and Nebraska can drive down the field quickly.
• The second defensive key will be keeping big plays from getting in the end zone. Nebraska averages just 4.92 points per scoring opportunity (potentially because they can't run the ball very effectively), so the Buckeye red zone defense should step up when forced. But big plays could negate the red zone defensive efficiency unless they're somewhat contained.
• Huskers fans have seen a lot more of Good Tommy Armstrong than Bad Tommy Armstrong this year. He has two multi-interception games (against Indiana and Wisconsin), but is overall much more careful with the ball than he's been in previous seasons. Malik Hooker and company are generally good for an interception per game -- and Armstrong has thrown six in his last four games.
• There's not much to worry about for the Huskers' ground game. They're 107th in adjusted line yards, 83rd in rushing S&P+, and 63rd in opportunity rate with just 40.2% of their carries going for 5+ yards. What's worse is that they're 110th in stuff rate, with nearly a quarter of runs going for no gain or a loss. Ohio State is the best in the country at defensive stuff rate, with 29.3% of opposing runs getting stopped at or behind the line. That's likely why Nebraska ranks 79th in standard downs S&P+, where they run on 72% of plays.

The 4 most important stats

1. Defensive passing IsoPPP (Nebraska's explosive passing): The one major area where Nebraska seems to have an advantage over the Ohio State defense is in passing IsoPPP. The Buckeye defense rarely allows efficient passes, but the ones they do tend to be big plays.
2. Rushing IsoPPP (big Ohio State runs): The Buckeye run game hasn't been dominant since the Rutgers game, but the Nebraska defense has a poor rushing IsoPPP, meaning that the successful runs they do allow tend to be fairly big. Explosive running hasn't been one of Ohio State's strong points unless Curtis Samuel is heavily involved in the ground game, so it's not clear whether Ohio State can take advantage of this weakness.
3. Passing success rate: Ohio State's passing success rate has declined in Big Ten play despite a better showing for short-yardage passing last week. We're likely to see more of that against Nebraska -- but the Nebraska defense has been solid preventing big passing plays.
4. Defensive rushing stuff rate. Maybe the most lopsided matchup is between the Ohio State run defense and the Nebraska rushing offense. The Nebraska offensive line allows an incredibly high number of stuffed runs, and the Ohio State defense is the best in the country at creating them.

Picks


S&P+: Ohio State 35, Nebraska 20, win probability 81.5%

F/+: Ohio State by 13.6

My Pick: Ohio State 31, Nebraska 21

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Tom Dienhart’s thoughts on Friday games, the race in the West & more
Tom Dienhart, BTN.com Senior Writer via Big Ten Network

Friday night games. The race in the West. Ohio State's muted offense. Doing a little thinking out loud as we head toward Saturday.

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