Ohio State v. Nebraska: 2024 game preview and prediction
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
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After having a bye week to digest the loss to Oregon, Ohio State gets back on the field, hosting the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Following their nail-biting 32-31 loss at Oregon,
Ohio State had a bye last week to recover from the tough loss to the Ducks. Now the Buckeyes kickoff the second half of their regular season by hosting the
Nebraska Cornhuskers. The two programs have not only each won over 800 games, they have combined to win 13 national championships and 10 Heisman Trophies.
Saturday’s meeting will be the 11th between the schools, with Ohio State holding a 9-1 edge in the series. The Buckeyes have won the last seven games against the Cornhuskers after Nebraska beat Ohio State 34-27 in 2011 in the first meeting between the schools as Big Ten foes. The last matchup in the series came in 2021, with Ohio State winning 26-17.
Last time out for Ohio State
In their last game, Ohio State fell just short of winning the showdown with Oregon in Eugene. The game was tight throughout, with the biggest lead being when Quinshon Judkins’ one-yard touchdown run early in the second quarter pushed the score to 14-6. The Ducks took the lead for good on a 19-yard Atticus Sappington field goal with less than two minutes left in the game.
Ohio State drove down the field and had a chance to win the game but an illegal substitution penalty on the Ducks took just enough time off the clock to not leave enough time for Will Howard to take a timeout after a 12-yard run to Oregon’s 26. With their victory, Oregon now has handed Ryan Day the only two losses before Thanksgiving during his time as head coach of the Buckeyes.
Still a top-tier offense
Despite the loss, Ohio State still has one of the most explosive offenses in the country. The Buckeyes are averaging 503 yards per game and 43.5 points per game, ranking sixth in the country in both categories. Chip Kelly’s offense is still perfect in the red zone, scoring points on all 26 drives inside the 20-yard-line of their opponents. 24 of those red zone possessions ended with touchdowns.
Aside from the infamous slide with not enough time left to call timeout, Will Howard has been playing great football through his first six games as Ohio State quarterback. The
Kansas State transfer is the first Buckeyes quarterback since C.J. Stroud in 2021 to complete at least 80 percent of pass attempts in back-to-back games. If Howard is able to hit that mark against Nebraska he will be the first Ohio State quarterback since Justin Fields in 2020 to record an 80 percent completion percentage in three consecutive games.
Along with his pinpoint accuracy, Howard is also a threat to pull the football down and run, scoring a rushing touchdown in five straight games. The five touchdowns Howard has rushed for this season leave him four away from tying his career-high, which he set last year with the Wildcats. For his college career, Howard has 105 total touchdowns, with 24 of those scores coming on the ground.
Even though Ohio State lost to Oregon, Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka deserve praise for their play in Eugene. Smith finished with nine catches for 100 yards and a score, while Egbuka caught a career-high 10 balls for 93 yards. Egbuka also found the end zone, marking his fourth straight game with a receiving touchdown. Smith’s 100 yard outing was his second of the season.
Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images
Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images
The freshman is now 96 yards from passing Cris Carter’s freshman school record of 648 receiving yards. Following his 10 catches against the Ducks, Egbuka is two receptions away from moving past Michael Jenkins for fifth-most in school history, and six catches away from moving past Cris Carter for sole possession of fourth place in Ohio State history.
The passing game needed to be productive against the Ducks since the Buckeyes didn’t get much on the ground. TreVeyon Henderson led the team with 87 yards rushing, with 53 of those yards coming on one run. Quinshon Judkins really struggled in the loss, totaling just 23 yards on 11 carries.
Henderson is now 30 yards from passing Carlos Snow’s 3,198 career rushing yards for 10th-most in school history, and 33 yards will see him move past Keith Byars. Both Henderson and Judkins have rushed for over 400 yards this year, with the duo combining to score 10 rushing touchdowns.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Ohio State offense is able to operate after the loss of tackle Josh Simmons, who was injured against Oregon. Head coach Ryan Day announced earlier this week that Simmons will miss the remainder of the season. After transferring from San Diego State prior to last season, Simmons was having a great season and was drawing attention from NFL scouts. Zen Michalski replaced Simmons after the injury in Eugene, and is expected to be the starter this week against Nebraska.
Looking to bounce back
The Ohio State defense wasn’t able to continue their dominance against Oregon that they displayed in the first five games of the season. Despite giving up nearly 500 yards of offense and 32 points to the Ducks, the Buckeyes still have one of the top-ranked defenses in the country. Through six games, Ohio State ranks second in the country in total defense, allowing 251.3 yards per game. The 11 points per game the Buckeyes are giving up this year is also one of the lowest marks in the country, ranking third.
For all of their dominance of lesser competition, there is a worrying trend of the defenses of Jim Knowles failing to meet the moment in big games. Knowles shoulders a lot of the blame, but defensive line coach Larry Johnson isn’t immune from criticism since the defensive line of the Buckeyes isn’t playing up to their potential. J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer have shown moments of brilliance over the last few years, which makes their inconsistent play even more frustrating.
Tuimoloau currently leads the team with three sacks, while Sawyer has 2.5 sacks so far this year. The failure of the defensive line to make life uncomfortable for opposing quarterbacks has put more stress on the linebackers and defensive backs when they take on tougher teams on their schedule.
Stars like Chase Young and the Bosa brothers set the bar high for the defensive line, and while it’s unfair to ask the ends to replicate what those talented players did, those currently in the scarlet and gray at that position should be better than what they are showing now.
Two players whose efforts against Oregon can’t be questioned are linebackers Cody Simon and Sonny Styles. Simon notched a career-high 10 tackles in the loss, while Styles was right behind him with nine stops. Entering Saturday’s game, Styles leads the team with 39 tackles through six games this season, and Simon has made 25 tackles after missing the season opener against Akron.
One player who is hoping to forget the Oregon game is cornerback Denzel Burke, who had his hands full with wide receiver Tez Johnson. Not only did Burke look like he was frequently lost while trying to keep pace with Johnson, he also missed a number of tackles during the game.
In Burke’s defense, Johnson is one of the most elusive receivers in the country. At the other cornerback spot, Davison Igbinosun was the victim of wide receiver Traeshon Holden spitting on him during the game, leading to Holden immediately being ejected for the rest of the game.
Photo by Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images
Alabama transfer Caleb Downs continued to ramp up his production, registering eight tackles in the loss to the Ducks, including a stop behind the line of scrimmage, giving him a tackle for loss in three straight games. More might be needed from Downs this week since head coach Ryan Day said safety Lathan Ransom is “day-to-day” with an injury. If Ransom is limited or sidelined, the Buckeyes will be without their second-leading tackler this season. Along with his 29 tackles, Ransom has 4.5 TFLs and two forced fumbles this year.
How Nebraska has fared this season
Nebraska enters Saturday’s game at a low point after losing 56-7 at Indiana last week. With the loss, the Cornhuskers enter the game with a 5-2 record, marking just the second season in the last decade where Nebraska has at least five wins through their first seven games. The other loss for the Cornhuskers was an overtime setback to Illinois.
Matt Rhule is in his second season as head coach at Nebraska, posting an 11-10 record so far in Lincoln. Rhule previously was the head coach at Temple and Baylor before moving to the NFL for a failed stint as head coach of the
Carolina Panthers. Prior to becoming the head coach at Temple, Rhule was a defensive line coach for the team in 2006, which was the same year when Ryan Day was Temple’s wide receivers coach.
The Cornhuskers on offense
Quarterbacking the Cornhuskers is true freshman Dylan Raiola, who at one time was an Ohio State commit. Raiola is the first true freshman quarterback since Marcus Mariota to post a completion percentage of at least 70 percent over the first three games of their college career.
After tossing eight touchdowns and just two interceptions over his first four games, Raiola has struggled of late, recording just one touchdown and four interceptions, with three of those picks coming last week against Indiana. For the season, Raiola has thrown for 1,592 yards, putting him about a thousand yards shy of breaking Adrian Martinez’s school record for passing yards in a season by a freshman.
Raiola will be working with five targets that have caught at least 19 passes so far this season. Jahmal Banks leads the team in receiving yardage with 316 yards, as well as two receiving touchdowns. Jacory Barney Jr. has a team-high 27 catches, but most of those have been short passes as evidenced by those grabs only totaling 181 yards. Barney’s big threat is when they find a way to get the ball into his hands via handoff, as he has eight carries for 111 yards and three touchdowns.
Tight end Thomas Fidone II was the lone bright spot for the Nebraska offense against the Hoosiers. Fidone finished the game with a career-high six catches for 91 yards. For the season, Fidone has caught 20 passes for 218 yards. Sitting just behind Fidone in receptions are Rahmir Johnson and Isaiah Neyor, who each have 19 grabs. Neyor has found the end zone most out of any Nebraska receiver this year, entering Saturday’s game with four receiving touchdowns.
Heading up the rushing attack for the Cornhuskers is Dante Dowdell. The running back has 350 yards on 81 carries, scoring five touchdowns. Dowdell is new to the program after transferring from Oregon after the 2023 season. Emmett Johnson should also see some work in this game in the backfield, as he has at least eight carries in four games this year, including the last three contests.
Building the Blackshirts back up
Prior to last week’s massacre in Bloomington, the Nebraska defense had been stout through the first six games of the year, allowing 10 points or less in five of their first six games of the season. Even after allowing 56 points to Indiana, Nebraska is allowing just 17.7 points per game, ranking 19th nationally. The Cornhuskers rank around the same when it comes to yardage allowed, with their 304.3 yards allowed per game sitting 18th in the country.
Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images
The secondary of Nebraska will have their hands full with Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and the rest of the Ohio State receivers on Saturday. Leading the charge in the defensive backfield is rover Isaac Gifford, who has 207 career tackles, making him the 10th defensive back in school history with at least 200 tackles.
The senior from Lincoln enters this game as the leading tackler on the team, registering 40 stops. Will Howard will also have to be aware of where Malcolm Hartzog Jr. is since the cornerback already has three interceptions this year. Tommi Hill, DeShon Singleton, and Marques Buford Jr. round out the secondary of the Cornhuskers.
Starring on the defensive line for Nebraska is Ty Robinson. The sixth-year senior defensive end has played in 54 games, starting 40 of those contests. With two more appearances, Robinson will tie the school record for games played. So far this season, Robinson has recorded four sacks, tying him with fellow defensive lineman James Williams for the team lead this season. In the middle of the three-man line is Nash Hutmacher, who has two sacks.
The linebackers of the Cornhuskers are not only sure tacklers, they have done a great job at finding their way into opposing backfields to make stops. Mikai Gbayor and John Bullock have combined to make 70 tackles, 9.5 of which are counted as TFLs. After Georgia transfer MJ Sherman started the first six games of the season at linebacker, freshman Vincent Shavers Jr. started against the Hoosiers. Sherman did play in the game, and was called for roughing the passer on the player where Indiana quarterback suffered a thumb injury.
Prediction
This is a really bad spot for Nebraska since the Cornhuskers will be coming off a beatdown in Bloomington and playing their second straight road game. As if that wasn’t going to be challenging enough, they’ll be taking on an Ohio State team that had last week off to collect themselves after a one-point loss at Oregon in one of the marquee games of the college football regular season.
With a trip to Penn State on deck next week, the Buckeyes know they’ll need a sharp performance to give them some momentum ahead of the showdown with the Nittany Lions. Saturday’s game is going to be massive for Zen Michalski and the offensive line since they’ll be playing their first full game together following the season-ending injury suffered by Josh Simmons against Oregon. The unit will need to gel quickly since they’ll facing a hostile environment in State College next Saturday.
This could be a get-right game for the Ohio State defense after an underwhelming performance against Oregon. There’s no question Dylan Raiola is talented, but opponents have been able to throw some different looks at him as there has been more tape on him to watch. With his recent struggles, if the defensive line of the Buckeyes can get after Raiola, it could allow the secondary to make some plays and restore some of the confidence that they might have lost against the Ducks.
Obviously there could be some rust for the Buckeyes with the noon start after a bye week. Ohio State has been able to shake off some sleepy starts this season and put their opponents away with ease. While Nebraska’s defense could provide some resistance, Indiana showed the Blackshirts aren’t impenetrable. There’s no reason the Buckeyes shouldn’t get back on track and win this game by at least three touchdowns
LGHL score prediction: Ohio State 41, Nebraska 14
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