Ohio State vs. Michigan: 2023 game preview and prediction
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
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The Buckeyes will look to halt a two-game losing streak to the Wolverines when the teams meet in Ann Arbor on Saturday.
It’s finally here. The Game. On Saturday afternoon
Ohio State and Michigan will square off in Ann Arbor with a whole lot on the line. Not only will bragging rights for a year be at stake, but also spots in the Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff hang in the balance. High stakes are nothing new in this rivalry. This is the 13th meeting between the programs with both teams ranked in the Associated Press Top 5. In those games, Ohio State holds a 7-4-1 edge.
Overall in the series, Michigan holds a 60-51-6 advantage. After Ohio State had won eight straight meetings from 2012 to 2019, Michigan has taken the last two showdowns. Last year in Columbus, the Wolverines used five touchdowns of over 40 yards to beat the Buckeyes 45-23, earning their first victory at Ohio Stadium since 2000. Despite Ohio State having seven more first downs in the game, Michigan still rolled up 530 yards of offense and won by 22 points.
The Ohio State offense is clicking at the right time
Ohio State enters Saturday’s game playing their best football of the season. After beating
Michigan State 38-3 two weeks ago, the Buckeyes closed out their 2023 home schedule by blowing out Minnesota 37-3 last week. Both scores for the Spartans and Golden Gophers came on field goals over 50 yards.
With the victory over Minnesota, Ohio State is now on an 11-game winning streak, which is their eighth streak of that length this century. Last year Ohio State also started their season by winning their first 11 games before falling to Michigan. Ryan Day is now 39-2 in the Big Ten as Ohio State head coach, with the only two setbacks coming at the hands of Jim Harbaugh, along with some assistance from Connor Stalions’ recording equipment.
Spuring the recent offensive uptick for Ohio State has been the return of running back TreVeyon Henderson. Since returning to the lineup against Wisconsin after missing three games because of an injury suffered in the
Notre Dame game, the Buckeyes have averaged 33 more rushing yards per game than its season average. While the team is rushing for 145.5 yards per game this year, Henderson’s return has the Buckeyes averaging 178 yards per game over the last four contests. Along with putting up 124 yards per game rushing, the junior is a factor in the passing attack, adding over 40 receiving yards per game.
Henderson is a fantastic compliment to Marvin Harrison Jr., who is a possible Heisman Trophy finalist. After scoring three touchdowns against Michigan State, Harrison was pretty quiet last week, catching just three passes for 30 yards. Even though his numbers weren’t eye-popping, Harrison still found the end zone in the blowout. If Harrison is going to New York City next month, this is the game where he has to put up one of the biggest performances of his career.
Now Kyle McCord will look to do something the man he backed up for two years, C.J. Stroud, couldn’t do. Beat Michigan. While McCord’s performance throughout the season has ben uneven at times, the first-year starter has gained confidence recently and is playing his best football of the season. What will help McCord on Saturday is he already has some experience coming up big in a hostile environment, as he engineered a game-winning drive late in the game at Notre Dame. McCord is nearing 3,000 yards passing this year, tossing 22 touchdowns and just four interceptions.
Along with finding Harrison through the air, a preferred target for McCord this year has been tight end Cade Stover. “Farmer Gronk” has hauled in 38 passes for 534 yards and five scores. After missing the
Rutgers game due to injury, Stover has caught 11 passes for 105 yards and two touchdowns over the last two games. The 26 yards he was credited with last week pushed Stover over 1,000 career receiving yards, allowing him to join John Frank as the only Ohio State tight ends to reach that mark.
The Buckeye defense is playing with a ton of confidence
On the defensive side of the football, Jack Sawyer enters Saturday’s game coming off his best game as a Buckeye. Against Minnesota, Sawyer had six tackles, with 3.5 of them coming behind the line of scrimmage. The defensive end also forced a fumble on a strip-sack. With his huge output against the Golden Gophers, Sawyer passed J.T. Tuimoloau for second on the team in tackles for loss, four behind Tyleik Williams’ team-leading 10 TFLs.
As a whole, the Buckeye defense has been dominant this year, not allowing more than 17 points in a game so far this season. Ohio State currently ranks first in the country in pass defense, second in scoring defense, and is third in total defense. After being burned for so many big plays last season, the only 40-yard play the defense of the Buckeyes have given up this year came on a fourth down play against Rutgers where the Scarlet Knights ran a “fumblerooski” play.
The biggest reason for the sharp turnaround in play from the defense this year has been because of the pass defense of the Buckeyes. Even though the unit took a hit with the injury to safety Lathan Ransom, Sonny Styles and Malik Hartford have stepped up to fill the void. Along with those two, Josh Proctor has eight pass breakups, which is tied with cornerback Denzel Burke for the team lead.
There’s no question Burke has rebounded from a disappointing sophomore season this year, but Jordan Hancock has gotten better as the year has gone on. Not only did Hancock return an interception 93 yards for a touchdown against Rutgers, last week the junior cornerback picked off a pass against Minnesota. Add in
Ole Miss transfer Davison Igbinosun and freshman Jermaine Mathews Jr. and there is some quality depth at the cornerback position.
One Buckeye who is itching to get back on the field is linebacker Tommy Eichenberg, who has sat out the last two games because of injury. Eichenberg did everything he could to suit up for senior day last week, but the decision was made to give the linebacker an extra week to get healthy for the biggest game of the year. Even though he has sat out the last two games, Eichenberg leads the team with 73 tackles.
While Eichenberg has been on the sidelines, Steele Chambers has held it down at linebacker, and Cody Simon continued his improved play as he has seen more time on the field. Chambers is second on the team with 62 tackles this year, while Simon has 44 tackles. You just know the trio will be playing with a huge chip on their shoulder after how Michigan has run over the Ohio State defense the past two seasons.
Michigan’s season entering The Game
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh won’t be on the sidelines after being suspended three games by the Big Ten for the Connor Stalions sign-stealing scandal. This is the second suspension of the year for Harbaugh, who missed the first three games of the season. Offensive coordinator and offensive line coach Sherrone Moore has served as acting head coach while Harbaugh has been banned from the sidelines.
Despite Harbaugh not coaching on game days for a good portion of the season, Michigan enters Saturday 11-0, running their regular season winning streak to 27 games, which is the second-longest in Big Ten history. The 31-24 win over Maryland last week was the 1,000th win in program history for the Wolverines. Who knows, Michigan could be the first team to win 1,000 games twice if any wins from the last couple years are vacated due to the sign-stealing scandal.
What to expect from the Michigan offense
One of the reasons Michigan has been so successful this year is because of their tremendous play in the first half of games, where they are outscoring opponents 227-55 in the first 30 minutes of games. By building such big leads in the first half, the Wolverines have been able to focus on running the football in the second half, bleeding the clock out, and leaving no doubt in the result. Along with getting up on their foes early, Michigan is also only averaging 25.7 penalty yards per game, which is the lowest total in the country, so they aren’t beating themselves.
Leading the Michigan offense is quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who threw for 263 yards and accounted for four total touchdowns last year against the Buckeyes. The Wolverines haven’t been so reliant on the passing game the last two weeks though, with McCarthy totaling just 31 passing attempts in wins over Penn State and Maryland. Despite not always needing to air it out, the one consistent thing McCarthy has done at Michigan is win. In his first 24 starts, the only game McCarthy has lost was in last year’s
Fiesta Bowl against
TCU.
Shouldering the load lately for the Wolverines has been running back Blake Corum. The junior has carried the football 54 times over the past two games. After scoring 18 touchdowns last year before he was injured in the Illinois game, limiting him to just two carries against Ohio State, Corum has found the end zone 20 times on the ground this year, which is two touchdowns shy of tying Hassan Haskins for most in a season in school history. For his career, Corum is four touchdowns away from tying Anthony Thomas’ school record of 55 rushing touchdowns. With 112 more rushing yards, Corum will reach 1,000 yards rushing for the second straight season.
Michigan may not have a game-changing receiver like Marvin Harrison Jr., but they do have a solid group that can make plays. Roman Wilson leads the team with 37 catches for 612 yards and 10 touchdowns. Tight end Colston Loveland made a monster play against the Buckeyes last year, and has hauled in 32 passes for 464 yards and four scores. Rounding out the group, Cornelius Johnson, A.J. Barner, and Semaj Morgan all have at least 16 catches this year.
After winning the Joe Moore Award the last two years as the best offensive line in the country, the offensive line of the Wolverines have had to work in a few new faces this year. To fill some of the holes of departed offensive linemen, Michigan hit the transfer market, adding tackle LaDarius Henderson from
Arizona State to go along with center Drake Nugent and Myles Hinton from Stanford. Returning to the group are first team all-Big Ten performers Trevor Keegan and Zak Zinter.
The Wolverines on defense
What will be interesting to see on Saturday is if the Michigan defense is on par with what we saw from the unit the last two years. One of the stars of the defense this year has been cornerback Mike Sainristil, who started his career as a wide receiver. Sainristil has intercepted five passes this year, which puts him near the top among Big Ten defenders. Joining Sainristil in the secondary are cornerbacks Will Johnson and Josh Wallace, as well as safeties Makari Paige and Rod Moore.
The Ohio State offensive line will have their hands full with the Michigan defensive line, which belongs in the conversation as one of the best in the country. Anchoring the unit is Kris Jenkins, who is a massive athletic freak who will plug the middle of the line at nose tackle. Defensive end Jaylen Harrell leads the team with 5.5 sacks this year, while at the other end of the defensive line Mason Graham has 5.5 tackles for loss. As a team, Michigan has 27 sacks so far this season.
The linebackers of the Wolverines are paced by Junior Colson, who tops the team with 60 tackles. Joining Colson is Nebraska transfer Ernest Hausmann. The former Cornhusker has been credited with 32 stops through the first 11 games. Lining up at the EDGE position will be Braiden McGregor, who has started all 11 games this season. The tackle numbers for the Wolverines might not look to high, but you have to remember the offense dominates time of possession in games, keeping the defense off the field for long stretches.
Summary
This is going to be a game for the ages. There are so many storylines heading into this game. What will Ryan Day’s strategy be after losing the last two years to Michigan? Will this be the game where Jim Harbaugh not being on the sidelines finally catches up to the Wolverines? Does Marvin Harrison Jr. have a Heisman performance a couple weeks before the ceremony in New York City? Does TreVeyon Henderson continue his strong play since his return from injury? All this and more will be answered on Saturday.
The downfall over the last two years for Ohio State has been they haven’t been tough enough. This year feels a little different. After years of the offense being able to make up for some questionable defensive play, this year the Buckeye defense has been the driving force of the team. Ohio State still hasn’t given up more than 17 points in a game, and they have only allowed one play of over 40 yards. To win this game, Michigan is going to have do things to the Buckeye defense that nobody has been able to do so far this year.
This game is going to come down to quarterback play. J.J. McCarthy has feasted off cupcakes for most of the season, while Blake Corum has really come on over the last couple games for Michigan. The Wolverines have been so confident in their running game that they didn’t have to throw the ball after the midway point of the second quarter two weeks ago against Penn State. With how stout the Buckeyes have been against the run this year, it’s hard to see McCarthy getting another light day of work.
In the end, Ohio State is going to want this game just a little more than Michigan. This feels like a game where the offenses are going to struggle for a lot of the game, but the talent of the skill position players of the Buckeyes is going to be the difference. With all the talk about Marvin Harrison Jr. and Cade Stover, it seems like Emeka Egbuka is getting lost in the shuffle, which is wild considering Egbuka has been talked about as a possible first round pick.
With a loss on Saturday, Ryan Day won’t be fired, but his seat will get a little hotter, especially with a new athletic director coming in next year. If Day prepares for this game like he did the Georgia game it’s going to be hard for the Wolverines to beat the Buckeyes. Coaching is going to be to decide the game, and Day has experience in moments like these, where interim Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore doesn’t. Go Bucks!
LGHL score prediction: Ohio State 24, Michigan 17
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