LGHL MC&J: Week 11’s national schedule will feature a showdown between Ole Miss and Georgia
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MC&J: Week 11’s national schedule will feature a showdown between Ole Miss and Georgia
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
The Rebels will be looking to ruin Georgia’s dreams of another undefeated season. Plus, picks for six other interesting national games.
Last week we moved back over the .500 mark, using a solid set of national picks to get back into positive territory. Things looked ugly early after Kansas State fell behind Texas, but thankfully the Wildcats kept plugging away to get back inside the number. Now if only Ole Miss hadn’t let Texas A&M back in the game, we could have had a win instead of a tie on the record for the week.
No. 8 Alabama (-10.5) v. Kentucky - 12:00 p.m. ET - ESPN
<Insert Undertaker raising from the dead GIF here> Don’t look now, Alabama is back in the top-10. The Crimson Tide are coming off a 42-28 win over LSU last week, and control their own destiny in the SEC West. If Alabama is able to win this week against Kentucky, as well as in a couple weeks against Auburn, they’ll be heading to the SEC Championship Game to take on Georgia, and if they beat the Bulldogs Nick Saban will be back in the College Football Playoff.
Kentucky snapped a three-game losing streak with a 24-3 win over Mississippi State last week. The victory over the Bulldogs secured bowl eligibility for the Wildcats for the eighth straight season. It feels like Kentucky is not quite good enough to be a top team in the conference, but they also are good enough to be in that second tier of teams in the SEC.
Alabama has figured out how to correctly use quarterback Jalen Milroe, which is big trouble for everyone left on the schedule of the Crimson Tide. Do you see Devin Leary out-dueling Milroe and Alabama? I know I certainly don’t. Running back Ray Davis isn’t going to be able to run wild on the defense of the Crimson Tide like he was able to against Florida earlier in the year. Alabama wins this game by at least two touchdowns.
Alabama 31, Kentucky 14
No. 18 Utah v. No. 5 Washington (-9.5) - 3:30 p.m. ET - FOX
Utah rebounded from their blowout loss to Oregon by beating up on Arizona State last week in Salt Lake City. Bryson Barnes tossed a career-high four touchdowns in the 55-3 win over the Sun Devils, doubling his total for the season. The Utes are going to likely need another outstanding game from Barnes this week, as they’ll travel to Seattle to take on a Washington team that currently sits just outside the College Football Playoff.
Following lackluster performances against Arizona State and Stanford, Washington looked great last week in their 52-42 win at USC. While quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is mentioned as a Heisman Trophy candidate, running back Dillon Johnson was the star of last week’s victory, rushing for 256 yards and four touchdowns against the Trojans. The Huskies still have some work to do to make the playoff, with each win the light at the end of the tunnel gets a little brighter.
I know Utah is going to play really hard for Kyle Whittingham in this game. The effort is only going to get them so far, though. The Utes aren’t as good on the road when they aren’t facing an Alex Grinch defense. Utah probably should have lost at Baylor early in the year, and they weren’t able to get anything going at Oregon State at the end of September. Washington has too much firepower for the Utes to keep pace with.
Washington 38, Utah 21
Miami (FL) v. No. 4 Florida State (-13.5) - 3:30 p.m. ET - ABC
Florida State has to be pushed to the limit at least once more this season, right? The ACC has been a joke this season, which is why I don’t think all that much about Florida State. Don’t get me wrong, the Seminoles have some talented players, I just wouldn’t pick them to beat some of the top teams in the country.
Not that Miami is one of the best teams in the country, but they do have some talent that could keep up with Florida State. Plus, the Hurricanes likely still have last year’s 45-3 loss to their rival still in their heads. What better way for Mario Cristobal to ease some of the pressure from a failed season than by handing the Seminoles their first loss of the year?
If Tyler Van Dyke plays smart football, Miami does have a chance to pull the upset on Saturday. Van Dyke can’t do what he did last week against NC State, where he threw three interceptions. While I don’t see the Hurricanes handing the Seminoles their first loss of the season, I do think Miami will be competitive in this contest.
Florida State 35, Miami (FL) 27
No. 13 Tennessee (-1.5) v. No. 14 Missouri - 3:30 p.m. ET - CBS
There are a number of entertaining games on the schedule for Saturday, but this could be one of those sneaky good games. Currently both teams are tied for second in the SEC East. While Missouri lost last week to Georgia, Tennessee knows it has an outside shot at heading to Atlanta if the Bulldogs slip up against Ole Miss this week. If Georgia loses and Tennessee beats Missouri on Saturday, then next week’s game against the Bulldogs in Knoxville will be for the SEC East crown.
Missouri has had a great season this year. Unfortunately, I think the Tigers have peaked. Much like when teams play Ohio State, a game against Georgia takes a lot out of teams. Plus, star wide receiver Luther Burden is banged up heading into this game, which will make moving the football against a stout Tennessee defense even tougher. Even though Brady Cook will do everything he can, the Volunteers are just a little too much for the Tigers.
Tennessee 31, Missouri 21
No. 9 Ole Miss v. No. 2 Georgia (-10.5) - 7:00 p.m. ET - ESPN
It feels like every week we are wondering just how good Georgia really is. The Bulldogs are still undefeated, they just aren’t nearly as dominant as they have been over the last two years. Kirby Smart has had to replace a lot of talent that is now playing in the NFL, and the injury to Brock Bowers has left quarterback Carson Beck without a true top threat in the passing game.
If only Ole Miss hadn’t fallen apart in the second half against Alabama, this would be the top game in the SEC this year. The Rebels can hurt through the air with Jaxson Dart, as well as on the ground with running back Quinshon Judkins. The only cause for concern for Ole Miss heading into this game is they might have gotten used to some home cooking, with four of their last five games being played in Oxford.
At some point Georgia is going to lose a game. This week’s game against Ole Miss is the toughest contest on the schedule so far this year for the Bulldogs. The Rebels are catching Georgia at the right time, since the Bulldogs are without their top offensive threat. If there ever was a time for Lane Kiffin to truly make some waves in the SEC, this would be the week. Even if Ole Miss doesn’t win this game, I think it comes down to the last possession.
Ole Miss 30, Georgia 27
No. 7 Texas (-10.5) v. TCU - 7:30 p.m. ET - ABC
Regression was expected for TCU after last year’s run to the national title game. Even though another playoff run didn’t seem likely heading into the season, not many people expected the Horned Frogs to be struggling to reach .500. With their 35-28 loss to Texas Tech last week, TCU heads into this game with a 4-5 record. The biggest issue for the Horned Frogs is scoring the football, since they have scored 28 points or less in four of the last five games, losing all four of those contests.
After losing to Oklahoma last month, Texas knows they have no room for error if they want to make the College Football Playoff this season. The task got even tougher when quarterback Quinn Ewers was sidelined. Maalik Murphy has done a solid job stepping in for Ewers, but the Longhorns were playing with fire last week when they were nearly upset by Kansas State in Austin.
With games against Texas and Oklahoma still on the schedule, it’s going to be really tough for TCU to become bowl eligible this season. Even with the injury to Ewers, the Longhorns are still too good on both sides of the football for the Horned Frogs in this one. Texas extracts some revenge for TCU winning last year’s meeting between the schools in Austin.
Texas 34, TCU 17
USC v. No. 6 Oregon (-14.5) - 10:30 p.m. ET - FOX
I’ll never understand why it took Lincoln Riley this long to fire defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. Following last week’s 52-42 loss to Washington, Riley finally put on his big boy pants and dismissed the worst defensive coordinator in college football.
Now there really is only two games left in the college career of quarterback Caleb Williams. While Williams could come back next year, it wouldn’t make any sense for the probable top pick in April’s NFL Draft to not declare for the draft following USC’s regular season finale in a couple weeks against UCLA.
Unlike USC, Oregon has plenty left to play for. As long as they don’t drop another game, the Ducks are on a path to a rematch with Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Last week Oregon put 63 points up against Cal, and they could near that total this week against one of the worst defenses in the country. With a few more big games, Bo Nix could earn a spot in New York City as a Heisman Trophy finalist. Heading into this week’s game, Nix has 30 total touchdowns this year.
At first glance this feels like a lot of points for Oregon to be laying against a high-powered offense. Just remember that USC doesn’t have much left to play for. Maybe the Trojans get up for this game and try to play spoiler, I just don’t see it happening. The Ducks are way too tough in Eugene for a soft team like USC to hang with them.
Oregon 52, USC 28
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Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
The Rebels will be looking to ruin Georgia’s dreams of another undefeated season. Plus, picks for six other interesting national games.
Last week ATS: 8-6-1 (5-2-1 National, 3-4 B1G)
Season ATS: 82-80-1 (38-46-1 National, 44-34 B1G)
Last week we moved back over the .500 mark, using a solid set of national picks to get back into positive territory. Things looked ugly early after Kansas State fell behind Texas, but thankfully the Wildcats kept plugging away to get back inside the number. Now if only Ole Miss hadn’t let Texas A&M back in the game, we could have had a win instead of a tie on the record for the week.
National games
No. 8 Alabama (-10.5) v. Kentucky - 12:00 p.m. ET - ESPN
<Insert Undertaker raising from the dead GIF here> Don’t look now, Alabama is back in the top-10. The Crimson Tide are coming off a 42-28 win over LSU last week, and control their own destiny in the SEC West. If Alabama is able to win this week against Kentucky, as well as in a couple weeks against Auburn, they’ll be heading to the SEC Championship Game to take on Georgia, and if they beat the Bulldogs Nick Saban will be back in the College Football Playoff.
Kentucky snapped a three-game losing streak with a 24-3 win over Mississippi State last week. The victory over the Bulldogs secured bowl eligibility for the Wildcats for the eighth straight season. It feels like Kentucky is not quite good enough to be a top team in the conference, but they also are good enough to be in that second tier of teams in the SEC.
Alabama has figured out how to correctly use quarterback Jalen Milroe, which is big trouble for everyone left on the schedule of the Crimson Tide. Do you see Devin Leary out-dueling Milroe and Alabama? I know I certainly don’t. Running back Ray Davis isn’t going to be able to run wild on the defense of the Crimson Tide like he was able to against Florida earlier in the year. Alabama wins this game by at least two touchdowns.
Alabama 31, Kentucky 14
No. 18 Utah v. No. 5 Washington (-9.5) - 3:30 p.m. ET - FOX
Utah rebounded from their blowout loss to Oregon by beating up on Arizona State last week in Salt Lake City. Bryson Barnes tossed a career-high four touchdowns in the 55-3 win over the Sun Devils, doubling his total for the season. The Utes are going to likely need another outstanding game from Barnes this week, as they’ll travel to Seattle to take on a Washington team that currently sits just outside the College Football Playoff.
Following lackluster performances against Arizona State and Stanford, Washington looked great last week in their 52-42 win at USC. While quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is mentioned as a Heisman Trophy candidate, running back Dillon Johnson was the star of last week’s victory, rushing for 256 yards and four touchdowns against the Trojans. The Huskies still have some work to do to make the playoff, with each win the light at the end of the tunnel gets a little brighter.
I know Utah is going to play really hard for Kyle Whittingham in this game. The effort is only going to get them so far, though. The Utes aren’t as good on the road when they aren’t facing an Alex Grinch defense. Utah probably should have lost at Baylor early in the year, and they weren’t able to get anything going at Oregon State at the end of September. Washington has too much firepower for the Utes to keep pace with.
Washington 38, Utah 21
Miami (FL) v. No. 4 Florida State (-13.5) - 3:30 p.m. ET - ABC
Florida State has to be pushed to the limit at least once more this season, right? The ACC has been a joke this season, which is why I don’t think all that much about Florida State. Don’t get me wrong, the Seminoles have some talented players, I just wouldn’t pick them to beat some of the top teams in the country.
Not that Miami is one of the best teams in the country, but they do have some talent that could keep up with Florida State. Plus, the Hurricanes likely still have last year’s 45-3 loss to their rival still in their heads. What better way for Mario Cristobal to ease some of the pressure from a failed season than by handing the Seminoles their first loss of the year?
If Tyler Van Dyke plays smart football, Miami does have a chance to pull the upset on Saturday. Van Dyke can’t do what he did last week against NC State, where he threw three interceptions. While I don’t see the Hurricanes handing the Seminoles their first loss of the season, I do think Miami will be competitive in this contest.
Florida State 35, Miami (FL) 27
No. 13 Tennessee (-1.5) v. No. 14 Missouri - 3:30 p.m. ET - CBS
There are a number of entertaining games on the schedule for Saturday, but this could be one of those sneaky good games. Currently both teams are tied for second in the SEC East. While Missouri lost last week to Georgia, Tennessee knows it has an outside shot at heading to Atlanta if the Bulldogs slip up against Ole Miss this week. If Georgia loses and Tennessee beats Missouri on Saturday, then next week’s game against the Bulldogs in Knoxville will be for the SEC East crown.
Missouri has had a great season this year. Unfortunately, I think the Tigers have peaked. Much like when teams play Ohio State, a game against Georgia takes a lot out of teams. Plus, star wide receiver Luther Burden is banged up heading into this game, which will make moving the football against a stout Tennessee defense even tougher. Even though Brady Cook will do everything he can, the Volunteers are just a little too much for the Tigers.
Tennessee 31, Missouri 21
No. 9 Ole Miss v. No. 2 Georgia (-10.5) - 7:00 p.m. ET - ESPN
It feels like every week we are wondering just how good Georgia really is. The Bulldogs are still undefeated, they just aren’t nearly as dominant as they have been over the last two years. Kirby Smart has had to replace a lot of talent that is now playing in the NFL, and the injury to Brock Bowers has left quarterback Carson Beck without a true top threat in the passing game.
If only Ole Miss hadn’t fallen apart in the second half against Alabama, this would be the top game in the SEC this year. The Rebels can hurt through the air with Jaxson Dart, as well as on the ground with running back Quinshon Judkins. The only cause for concern for Ole Miss heading into this game is they might have gotten used to some home cooking, with four of their last five games being played in Oxford.
At some point Georgia is going to lose a game. This week’s game against Ole Miss is the toughest contest on the schedule so far this year for the Bulldogs. The Rebels are catching Georgia at the right time, since the Bulldogs are without their top offensive threat. If there ever was a time for Lane Kiffin to truly make some waves in the SEC, this would be the week. Even if Ole Miss doesn’t win this game, I think it comes down to the last possession.
Ole Miss 30, Georgia 27
No. 7 Texas (-10.5) v. TCU - 7:30 p.m. ET - ABC
Regression was expected for TCU after last year’s run to the national title game. Even though another playoff run didn’t seem likely heading into the season, not many people expected the Horned Frogs to be struggling to reach .500. With their 35-28 loss to Texas Tech last week, TCU heads into this game with a 4-5 record. The biggest issue for the Horned Frogs is scoring the football, since they have scored 28 points or less in four of the last five games, losing all four of those contests.
After losing to Oklahoma last month, Texas knows they have no room for error if they want to make the College Football Playoff this season. The task got even tougher when quarterback Quinn Ewers was sidelined. Maalik Murphy has done a solid job stepping in for Ewers, but the Longhorns were playing with fire last week when they were nearly upset by Kansas State in Austin.
With games against Texas and Oklahoma still on the schedule, it’s going to be really tough for TCU to become bowl eligible this season. Even with the injury to Ewers, the Longhorns are still too good on both sides of the football for the Horned Frogs in this one. Texas extracts some revenge for TCU winning last year’s meeting between the schools in Austin.
Texas 34, TCU 17
USC v. No. 6 Oregon (-14.5) - 10:30 p.m. ET - FOX
I’ll never understand why it took Lincoln Riley this long to fire defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. Following last week’s 52-42 loss to Washington, Riley finally put on his big boy pants and dismissed the worst defensive coordinator in college football.
Now there really is only two games left in the college career of quarterback Caleb Williams. While Williams could come back next year, it wouldn’t make any sense for the probable top pick in April’s NFL Draft to not declare for the draft following USC’s regular season finale in a couple weeks against UCLA.
Unlike USC, Oregon has plenty left to play for. As long as they don’t drop another game, the Ducks are on a path to a rematch with Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Last week Oregon put 63 points up against Cal, and they could near that total this week against one of the worst defenses in the country. With a few more big games, Bo Nix could earn a spot in New York City as a Heisman Trophy finalist. Heading into this week’s game, Nix has 30 total touchdowns this year.
At first glance this feels like a lot of points for Oregon to be laying against a high-powered offense. Just remember that USC doesn’t have much left to play for. Maybe the Trojans get up for this game and try to play spoiler, I just don’t see it happening. The Ducks are way too tough in Eugene for a soft team like USC to hang with them.
Oregon 52, USC 28
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