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LGHL I-80 Football Show: 2023 Season Preview - Middling Tier part two
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I-80 Football Show: 2023 Season Preview - Middling Tier part two
JordanW330 via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images
Jordan and Dante wrap up the Middling Tier, breaking down Purdue and Maryland’s 2023 season outlook.
Welcome to a new episode of Land-Grant Holy Land’s I-80 Football Show. On this show, we talk about all things Big Ten football and basketball from New Jersey to California. With four new teams joining the conference in 2024, we’ll integrate them in the show, getting a head start on the 18-team conference.
After every week of action, we will catch you up on all the conference’s games and look ahead at the matchups, storylines, and players you should be paying attention to next week. My name is Jordan Williams, and I am joined by my co-host Dante Morgan.
Listen to the episode and subscribe:
Subscribe: RSS | Apple | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts | iHeart Radio
In this episode, the guys finish up their realignment talk — hopefully — as we’re all ready to move on to the season and talk ball.
Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah are in the Big 12. Arizona and ASU might be a wash, but the Big 12 may have made a mistake letting Utah in. Jordan expects them to compete for the title immediately. There was a lot of parity in the Big 12 before adding Utah, but if they continue trending upward the Utes have a chance to dominate their new conference.
As for the four schools left out, Cal and Stanford are hoping for a lifeline from the ACC, which is the only Power Five conference not to make any moves in the last two years. The ACC is considering adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU, but will likely need to add a fourth team if this is the case. Appalachian State anyone?
Finishing out the Middling Tier, Dante and Jordan break down the 2023 season outlook for Maryland and Purdue. Purdue enters 2023 coming off the best season in program history in which they broke out and won the West. Unfortunately, after their season, they lost Head Coach Jeff Brohm, who went back home to coach at Louisville. They also lost their starting quarterback Aidan O’Connell and star wide receiver Charlie Jones to the NFL Draft.
First-time head coach Ryan Walters will be tasked with continuing the success Brohm had, which will be a tall order. Walters hired Graham Harrell, an air raid disciple, as his offensive coordinator, which is a sign they will continue to sling the ball all over the field — but with a much better defense, as Walters is one of the best young defensive minds in the country.
Maryland enters 2023 coming off their best year under Mike Locksley, and the last year with Taulia Tagovailoa under center. Tagovailoa took a step back statistically last year, but he was still arguably the second-best quarterback in the conference. However, Maryland only managed to win eight games. They lost a lot of good players, including first-round corner Deante Banks, but they should return an above-average defense.
If Taulia can continue to throw for around 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns, with the emergence of sophomore running back Roman Hemby, Maryland should win a bunch of games again. They’re still far away from challenging Michigan and Ohio State, but everyone else should be beatable for the Terrapins.
In their pitstops, Jordan talks about the difference between the Little League Baseball and Softball World Series, and Dante thinks the NBA is getting less competitive because non-star players are making too much money.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Follow the show on YouTube: @JordanW330 and @LandGrantPods
Connect with us on Twitter: Jordan: @JordanW330 and Dante: @DanteM10216
Subscribe: RSS | Apple | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts | iHeart Radio
Continue reading...
JordanW330 via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images
Jordan and Dante wrap up the Middling Tier, breaking down Purdue and Maryland’s 2023 season outlook.
Welcome to a new episode of Land-Grant Holy Land’s I-80 Football Show. On this show, we talk about all things Big Ten football and basketball from New Jersey to California. With four new teams joining the conference in 2024, we’ll integrate them in the show, getting a head start on the 18-team conference.
After every week of action, we will catch you up on all the conference’s games and look ahead at the matchups, storylines, and players you should be paying attention to next week. My name is Jordan Williams, and I am joined by my co-host Dante Morgan.
Listen to the episode and subscribe:
Subscribe: RSS | Apple | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts | iHeart Radio
In this episode, the guys finish up their realignment talk — hopefully — as we’re all ready to move on to the season and talk ball.
Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah are in the Big 12. Arizona and ASU might be a wash, but the Big 12 may have made a mistake letting Utah in. Jordan expects them to compete for the title immediately. There was a lot of parity in the Big 12 before adding Utah, but if they continue trending upward the Utes have a chance to dominate their new conference.
As for the four schools left out, Cal and Stanford are hoping for a lifeline from the ACC, which is the only Power Five conference not to make any moves in the last two years. The ACC is considering adding Cal, Stanford, and SMU, but will likely need to add a fourth team if this is the case. Appalachian State anyone?
Finishing out the Middling Tier, Dante and Jordan break down the 2023 season outlook for Maryland and Purdue. Purdue enters 2023 coming off the best season in program history in which they broke out and won the West. Unfortunately, after their season, they lost Head Coach Jeff Brohm, who went back home to coach at Louisville. They also lost their starting quarterback Aidan O’Connell and star wide receiver Charlie Jones to the NFL Draft.
First-time head coach Ryan Walters will be tasked with continuing the success Brohm had, which will be a tall order. Walters hired Graham Harrell, an air raid disciple, as his offensive coordinator, which is a sign they will continue to sling the ball all over the field — but with a much better defense, as Walters is one of the best young defensive minds in the country.
Maryland enters 2023 coming off their best year under Mike Locksley, and the last year with Taulia Tagovailoa under center. Tagovailoa took a step back statistically last year, but he was still arguably the second-best quarterback in the conference. However, Maryland only managed to win eight games. They lost a lot of good players, including first-round corner Deante Banks, but they should return an above-average defense.
If Taulia can continue to throw for around 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns, with the emergence of sophomore running back Roman Hemby, Maryland should win a bunch of games again. They’re still far away from challenging Michigan and Ohio State, but everyone else should be beatable for the Terrapins.
In their pitstops, Jordan talks about the difference between the Little League Baseball and Softball World Series, and Dante thinks the NBA is getting less competitive because non-star players are making too much money.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Follow the show on YouTube: @JordanW330 and @LandGrantPods
Connect with us on Twitter: Jordan: @JordanW330 and Dante: @DanteM10216
Subscribe: RSS | Apple | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Podcasts | iHeart Radio
Continue reading...
LGHL Looking back at the 2020 Ohio State recruiting class: The Contributors
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Looking back at the 2020 Ohio State recruiting class: The Contributors
Chip.Minnich via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Joseph Scheller/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
Part two of the series focuses upon those players who will be playing in 2023 and possibly beyond.
Every day from now until the start of the season, Land-Grant Holy Land is highlighting Ohio State football players that you should be watching this season. Check out all of our ”Player to Watch” articles to get ready for the season opener against Indiana.
Part one of this series focused on players who were a part of the 2020 Ohio State recruiting class who have since departed the program. This time, we are going to focus upon those who have remained, have contributed to the program and could potentially decide to stay for another season at Ohio State after 2023. As I did in part one of the series, I will address each player, and where they are currently on the depth chart, in order of when that particular player verbally committed to the Buckeyes.
Recruited out of Eastside Catholic in Seattle, Washington as a wide receiver, Scott made the move to tight end during spring practices in 2021. For his career at Ohio State, Scott has caught 10 passes for 70 yards and a touchdown. Scott has been a member of the special teams units during his time at Ohio State, and will have eligibility remaining after the 2023 season. Scott recently graduated from Ohio State, in only three years.
Considering how this is Cade Stover’s last year in the program, it will not be surprising if Scott decides to stick around and try to compete for the starting tight end position for the 2024 season. It is for those reasons why I listed Scott as a “Player To Watch” in 2023.
2. Jakob James - Center
Recruited out of Cincinnati Elder, James redshirted for the 2020 season, and will have eligibility remaining after the 2023 season. James played primarily on special teams units during the 2021 season, and played in 12 games during the 2022 season, most extensively versus Toledo.
James was expected to compete for the starting center position during spring practice, but had to miss the spring due to surgery rehabilitation. James is battling Carson Hinzman and Vic Cutler for the starting center position in 2023 fall camp. When asked about the upcoming season and the battle for the starting center job, James said,
3. Trey Leroux - Offensive Line
Recruited out of Norwalk, Ohio, Leroux redshirted in 2020. Leroux has played sparingly over the last three seasons, and is not being projected to move up the depth chart this upcoming season. Leroux has been Academic All-Big Ten the past two seasons, and will have eligibility after the 2023 season.
4. Joe Royer - Tight End
Another player from Cincinnati Elder, Royer redshirted in 2020. Royer is being talked about as the possible second tight end this coming season, with Cade Stover firmly entrenched as the starter. For his career, Royer has caught three passes for 19 yards. Royer played extensively versus Georgia in the 2022 Peach Bowl, after Cade Stover was injured.
Royer had a rough 2022 season overall, due to the in-season passing of his mother. Like his teammate Scott, Royer has eligibility remaining after the 2023 season, and could be in line to start at tight end for Ohio State in 2024.
5. Mitchell Melton - Linebacker
Melton is one of those players that Ohio State fans are hoping will have a solid 2023 season. After redshirting in 2020, Melton missed both the 2021 and 2022 seasons due to injury; the 2022 injury took place during the 2022 Ohio State Spring Game. Recruited out of Good Counsel High School in Maryland, Melton has been projected by Jim Knowles and the defensive coaching staff as a possible candidate for the 2023 season for the “Jack” position, the hybrid defensive end-linebacker position on the Ohio State defense.
Melton will have eligibility remaining after the 2023 season.
6. Kourt Williams II - Linebacker
Like his teammate Melton, Williams is a player Ohio State fans are hoping can have an injury-free 2023 season. Recruited out of St. John Bosco in California, Williams was projected as a safety who had the potential to be moved to linebacker. Going into the 2023 season, it appears that the coaching staff believes linebacker is Williams’ best position, as that position switch was made at the beginning of fall camp.
Technically, Williams has started a game: the 2022 Rose Bowl, versus Utah. Considering how Williams has battled injuries over the past two seasons, I felt more comfortable listing Williams as a contributor, versus a starter. Over his career, Williams has been credited with 32 total tackles, with 23 of them being solo. Williams also has one sack, and one pass defensed.
Despite his injuries, Williams has made significant contributions to the program, and is held in very high regard by the coaching staff and his teammates, as he was named a captain for the 2022 season. Williams graduated from Ohio State in May of 2023, with a degree in communications. Like his teammates listed in this article, Williams will have eligibility remaining after the 2023 season.
Out of 25 players signed, six have emerged as contributors, or 24%. Below the “Rule Of Thirds” when evaluating recruiting classes, and considering how everyone listed above has eligibility remaining after the 2023 season, it could look even better if some of these players develop into starters for the 2024 season.
In part three of this series, we will look at the players who have emerged as starters in the program.
Continue reading...
Chip.Minnich via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Joseph Scheller/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
Part two of the series focuses upon those players who will be playing in 2023 and possibly beyond.
Every day from now until the start of the season, Land-Grant Holy Land is highlighting Ohio State football players that you should be watching this season. Check out all of our ”Player to Watch” articles to get ready for the season opener against Indiana.
Part one of this series focused on players who were a part of the 2020 Ohio State recruiting class who have since departed the program. This time, we are going to focus upon those who have remained, have contributed to the program and could potentially decide to stay for another season at Ohio State after 2023. As I did in part one of the series, I will address each player, and where they are currently on the depth chart, in order of when that particular player verbally committed to the Buckeyes.
- Gee Scott - Tight End
Recruited out of Eastside Catholic in Seattle, Washington as a wide receiver, Scott made the move to tight end during spring practices in 2021. For his career at Ohio State, Scott has caught 10 passes for 70 yards and a touchdown. Scott has been a member of the special teams units during his time at Ohio State, and will have eligibility remaining after the 2023 season. Scott recently graduated from Ohio State, in only three years.
Considering how this is Cade Stover’s last year in the program, it will not be surprising if Scott decides to stick around and try to compete for the starting tight end position for the 2024 season. It is for those reasons why I listed Scott as a “Player To Watch” in 2023.
2. Jakob James - Center
Recruited out of Cincinnati Elder, James redshirted for the 2020 season, and will have eligibility remaining after the 2023 season. James played primarily on special teams units during the 2021 season, and played in 12 games during the 2022 season, most extensively versus Toledo.
James was expected to compete for the starting center position during spring practice, but had to miss the spring due to surgery rehabilitation. James is battling Carson Hinzman and Vic Cutler for the starting center position in 2023 fall camp. When asked about the upcoming season and the battle for the starting center job, James said,
3. Trey Leroux - Offensive Line
Recruited out of Norwalk, Ohio, Leroux redshirted in 2020. Leroux has played sparingly over the last three seasons, and is not being projected to move up the depth chart this upcoming season. Leroux has been Academic All-Big Ten the past two seasons, and will have eligibility after the 2023 season.
4. Joe Royer - Tight End
Another player from Cincinnati Elder, Royer redshirted in 2020. Royer is being talked about as the possible second tight end this coming season, with Cade Stover firmly entrenched as the starter. For his career, Royer has caught three passes for 19 yards. Royer played extensively versus Georgia in the 2022 Peach Bowl, after Cade Stover was injured.
Royer had a rough 2022 season overall, due to the in-season passing of his mother. Like his teammate Scott, Royer has eligibility remaining after the 2023 season, and could be in line to start at tight end for Ohio State in 2024.
5. Mitchell Melton - Linebacker
Melton is one of those players that Ohio State fans are hoping will have a solid 2023 season. After redshirting in 2020, Melton missed both the 2021 and 2022 seasons due to injury; the 2022 injury took place during the 2022 Ohio State Spring Game. Recruited out of Good Counsel High School in Maryland, Melton has been projected by Jim Knowles and the defensive coaching staff as a possible candidate for the 2023 season for the “Jack” position, the hybrid defensive end-linebacker position on the Ohio State defense.
Melton will have eligibility remaining after the 2023 season.
6. Kourt Williams II - Linebacker
Like his teammate Melton, Williams is a player Ohio State fans are hoping can have an injury-free 2023 season. Recruited out of St. John Bosco in California, Williams was projected as a safety who had the potential to be moved to linebacker. Going into the 2023 season, it appears that the coaching staff believes linebacker is Williams’ best position, as that position switch was made at the beginning of fall camp.
Technically, Williams has started a game: the 2022 Rose Bowl, versus Utah. Considering how Williams has battled injuries over the past two seasons, I felt more comfortable listing Williams as a contributor, versus a starter. Over his career, Williams has been credited with 32 total tackles, with 23 of them being solo. Williams also has one sack, and one pass defensed.
Despite his injuries, Williams has made significant contributions to the program, and is held in very high regard by the coaching staff and his teammates, as he was named a captain for the 2022 season. Williams graduated from Ohio State in May of 2023, with a degree in communications. Like his teammates listed in this article, Williams will have eligibility remaining after the 2023 season.
Out of 25 players signed, six have emerged as contributors, or 24%. Below the “Rule Of Thirds” when evaluating recruiting classes, and considering how everyone listed above has eligibility remaining after the 2023 season, it could look even better if some of these players develop into starters for the 2024 season.
In part three of this series, we will look at the players who have emerged as starters in the program.
Continue reading...
LGHL Buckeyes in the NFL: 2023 Fantasy Football Preview — Michael Thomas
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Buckeyes in the NFL: 2023 Fantasy Football Preview — Michael Thomas
Josh Dooley via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
After missing the better part of three seasons, Thomas is looking to make a triumphant return — or any return, really — and remind the NFL universe (and fantasy football players) of his greatness.
In 2019, Michael Thomas produced one of the greatest individual seasons in NFL history. He set an NFL record with 149 receptions (on 185 targets!), and totaled 1,725 yards and 9 touchdowns. This followed a 2018 season in which we racked up 125 receptions and 1,405 yards, to go with an identical nine TD.
All told, over his first four seasons, Thomas averaged 118 receptions, 1,378 yards, and eight TD.
He was named to the Pro Bowl in three of those seasons (robbed as a rookie), received two First-Team All Pro nods, earned the distinction of 2019 Offensive Player of the Year, and was generally recognized as one of the bestreceivers players in the game. Not bad for a second-round draft pick.
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Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Thomas was so elite, and put up such gaudy stats, that people such as myself recognized him as a potential first pick candidate in fantasy football drafts. Not first WR. First overall. And a few years ago, any WR going first overall would have been borderline heresy in the fantasy world. But Thomas was that good. In fact, his 2019 season was the seventh-best fantasy season ever (modern era, excluding Jerry Rice) for a player at his position.
Unfortunately, Thomas’ impressive run came do a dead stop after that 2019 season, and now both fans and fantasy players are left wondering whether or not Can’t Guard Mike will ever return.
The former Buckeye suffered a nasty ankle injury during Week 1 of the 2020 season, causing him to miss six games. When he did re-enter the lineup roughly two months later, Thomas lacked explosion and his signature ability to separate from defensive backs. He did not appear close to 100 percent healthy, but gutted through it anyway. He played six more games before eventually re-aggravating his injury and missing the remainder of the season.
His totals for the partial season were 40 receptions, 438 yards, and ZERO TD (in 7 games). In addition to playing through injury, Thomas was also catching balls from the corpse of Drew Brees’ right arm, which certainly did not help matters.
Thomas’ ankle injury lingered into the offseason, and in June of 2021 he opted for surgery to address the issue. Multiple ligaments were repaired, and although expected back at some point, he ended up missing the entirety of the 2021 season. It was suggested that Thomas delayed surgery, putting his own season in jeopardy due to a spat with the New Orleans Saints, but both player and team shot that down as silly speculation. Regardless of why the surgery occurred when it did, he is STILL (!) working his way back to full health.
2022 brought about new optimism, as Thomas was temporarily healthy entering the season. He scored three touchdowns in the Saints’ first two games, and all of a sudden, Can’t Guard Mike was back, baby! Unfortunately, CGM’s renaissance lasted less than three full weeks. He suffered a toe injury during Week 3, and was expected to miss a few weeks.
But the issue lingered, and then there was a complication, which ultimately resulted in Thomas being shut down mid-season.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24782646/usa_today_19072286.jpg)
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Adding it all up, Thomas has appeared in just 10 games (8 starts) since the end of the 2019 season... 10. And rarely during any of those games has he resembled the dominant player fans and fantasy owners became familiar with. Even when he was finding the endzone last season, he was essentially just a short yardage specialist. Like the WR version of new teammate Jamaal Williams.
In three games (2022), Thomas reeled in 16 catches for 171 yards — barely 10 yards per catch. And of those 171 yards, only 21 came after the catch! That’s an average of 1.3 YAC, which is basically just catching the ball and falling down. While Thomas was never the fastest guy in the world or a YAC superstar – even at his peak – 1.3 YAC might as well be 0.0 for a WR. He was a stationary target out there, as opposed to Jaylen Waddle and/or A.J. Brown, both of whom averaged over 6.2 YAC.
So what should fans and fantasy owners expect from Thomas moving forward? Eh, not much, in my humble opinion. And it pains me to say that because peak Thomas was incredibly fun to root for. Even more so when you think about the football journey he took to super stardom: Redshirted as a healthy sophomore at Ohio State, second-round NFL Draft pick, and so on. But the reality is, he is now 30 years old and has not played a solid month of football since the Trump administration.
Now, can Thomas give his actual team as well as fantasy owners something? Sure, I think so. But expectations should definitely be low(ered). Because health issues, which are very real and a total bummer, are just a small piece of the puzzle. When it comes to fantasy football in particular, Thomas has many (other) obstacles standing in his way.
First and foremost if the fact that this former Offensive Player of the Year is no longer his team’s No. 1 pass-catching option. Fellow Buckeye Chris Olave inherited that crown last year, and I would be shocked if he gave it up anytime soon. The latter nearly matched Thomas’ rookie season output (at least in terms of yardage), and did so with a combination of Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton throwing him passes!
Now that Derek Carr is the Saints’ QB, I would expect Olave to put up bigger and better numbers while still maintaining something similar to his 2022 target share.
Another factor that should be taken into account by those looking to potentially draft Thomas is the undeniable truth that New Orleans has a larger, deeper core of skill players than they did when Thomas was breaking NFL records. Are said players Hall of Famers? No. But they do exist and they will get touches.
In addition to Olave, the Saints can and will get the ball to Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, Taysom Hill, Rashid Shaheed, and Juwan Johnson, just to name a few. The same core in 2019 was comprised of guys like Ted Ginn Jr., Tre’Quan Smith, Jared Cook, and Latavius Murray... Not the fiercest competition Thomas could have faced for targets and touches.
And finally, let’s just acknowledge that David Carr is not peak Drew Brees. The former is a fine QB, but the latter is/was the most accurate passer in NFL history. Not to mention the league’s second most prolific passer in terms of yardage. Carr will likely produce and be just fine for the Saints, but we should not expect Brees (and Sean Payton) numbers. The former Raider has typically been good at feeding one mouth (WR), and Olave is likely to be that one in New Orleans.
If fantasy owners are still willing to gamble on Thomas, I do believe there is some upside in the scoring department. Which sounds strange, given that he has never put up double-digit TD in a single season. I would consider this stat an outlier, especially when looking at a few of his contemporaries: DaVante Adams, Mike Evans, and DeAndre Hopkins are all in the same age range, and they each have multiple 10+ TD seasons under their belt.
Thomas’ career high of eight TD would have barely put him inside the top-10 last year. But when given opportunities, he has always been reliable in the red zone. Last season was a small but perfect example: Three TD in Weeks 1 and 2. Carr is also used to targeting Darren Waller and/or Adams thanks to his time spent in Oakland and Las Vegas, and Thomas is at least somewhat comparable to both in terms of size, strength, and ability to make contested catches.
According to most outlets, Thomas’ current ADP is outside the top 100. And honestly, I find it hard to disagree with any of those rankings. I will only be targeting Can’t Guard Mike late, if I target him at all. There is just too much risk associated with drafting the former Buckeye, and I would rather roll the dice on a ‘lottery ticket’. Maybe I find the next Cooper Kupp? But if you are bold and decide to move Thomas up in your own personal rankings, well then I guess there are worse strategies than taking a big swing on a big-time player. At least you have proof of concept.
Regardless of whether or not Thomas ends up on one of my teams, I will still (and always) be rooting for him. Here’s hoping he proves me and the other doubters wrong, and enjoys a prosperous and productive 2023 season.
Continue reading...
Josh Dooley via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
After missing the better part of three seasons, Thomas is looking to make a triumphant return — or any return, really — and remind the NFL universe (and fantasy football players) of his greatness.
In 2019, Michael Thomas produced one of the greatest individual seasons in NFL history. He set an NFL record with 149 receptions (on 185 targets!), and totaled 1,725 yards and 9 touchdowns. This followed a 2018 season in which we racked up 125 receptions and 1,405 yards, to go with an identical nine TD.
All told, over his first four seasons, Thomas averaged 118 receptions, 1,378 yards, and eight TD.
He was named to the Pro Bowl in three of those seasons (robbed as a rookie), received two First-Team All Pro nods, earned the distinction of 2019 Offensive Player of the Year, and was generally recognized as one of the best
Thomas was so elite, and put up such gaudy stats, that people such as myself recognized him as a potential first pick candidate in fantasy football drafts. Not first WR. First overall. And a few years ago, any WR going first overall would have been borderline heresy in the fantasy world. But Thomas was that good. In fact, his 2019 season was the seventh-best fantasy season ever (modern era, excluding Jerry Rice) for a player at his position.
Unfortunately, Thomas’ impressive run came do a dead stop after that 2019 season, and now both fans and fantasy players are left wondering whether or not Can’t Guard Mike will ever return.
The former Buckeye suffered a nasty ankle injury during Week 1 of the 2020 season, causing him to miss six games. When he did re-enter the lineup roughly two months later, Thomas lacked explosion and his signature ability to separate from defensive backs. He did not appear close to 100 percent healthy, but gutted through it anyway. He played six more games before eventually re-aggravating his injury and missing the remainder of the season.
His totals for the partial season were 40 receptions, 438 yards, and ZERO TD (in 7 games). In addition to playing through injury, Thomas was also catching balls from the corpse of Drew Brees’ right arm, which certainly did not help matters.
Thomas’ ankle injury lingered into the offseason, and in June of 2021 he opted for surgery to address the issue. Multiple ligaments were repaired, and although expected back at some point, he ended up missing the entirety of the 2021 season. It was suggested that Thomas delayed surgery, putting his own season in jeopardy due to a spat with the New Orleans Saints, but both player and team shot that down as silly speculation. Regardless of why the surgery occurred when it did, he is STILL (!) working his way back to full health.
2022 brought about new optimism, as Thomas was temporarily healthy entering the season. He scored three touchdowns in the Saints’ first two games, and all of a sudden, Can’t Guard Mike was back, baby! Unfortunately, CGM’s renaissance lasted less than three full weeks. He suffered a toe injury during Week 3, and was expected to miss a few weeks.
But the issue lingered, and then there was a complication, which ultimately resulted in Thomas being shut down mid-season.
Adding it all up, Thomas has appeared in just 10 games (8 starts) since the end of the 2019 season... 10. And rarely during any of those games has he resembled the dominant player fans and fantasy owners became familiar with. Even when he was finding the endzone last season, he was essentially just a short yardage specialist. Like the WR version of new teammate Jamaal Williams.
In three games (2022), Thomas reeled in 16 catches for 171 yards — barely 10 yards per catch. And of those 171 yards, only 21 came after the catch! That’s an average of 1.3 YAC, which is basically just catching the ball and falling down. While Thomas was never the fastest guy in the world or a YAC superstar – even at his peak – 1.3 YAC might as well be 0.0 for a WR. He was a stationary target out there, as opposed to Jaylen Waddle and/or A.J. Brown, both of whom averaged over 6.2 YAC.
So what should fans and fantasy owners expect from Thomas moving forward? Eh, not much, in my humble opinion. And it pains me to say that because peak Thomas was incredibly fun to root for. Even more so when you think about the football journey he took to super stardom: Redshirted as a healthy sophomore at Ohio State, second-round NFL Draft pick, and so on. But the reality is, he is now 30 years old and has not played a solid month of football since the Trump administration.
Now, can Thomas give his actual team as well as fantasy owners something? Sure, I think so. But expectations should definitely be low(ered). Because health issues, which are very real and a total bummer, are just a small piece of the puzzle. When it comes to fantasy football in particular, Thomas has many (other) obstacles standing in his way.
First and foremost if the fact that this former Offensive Player of the Year is no longer his team’s No. 1 pass-catching option. Fellow Buckeye Chris Olave inherited that crown last year, and I would be shocked if he gave it up anytime soon. The latter nearly matched Thomas’ rookie season output (at least in terms of yardage), and did so with a combination of Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton throwing him passes!
Now that Derek Carr is the Saints’ QB, I would expect Olave to put up bigger and better numbers while still maintaining something similar to his 2022 target share.
Another factor that should be taken into account by those looking to potentially draft Thomas is the undeniable truth that New Orleans has a larger, deeper core of skill players than they did when Thomas was breaking NFL records. Are said players Hall of Famers? No. But they do exist and they will get touches.
In addition to Olave, the Saints can and will get the ball to Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, Taysom Hill, Rashid Shaheed, and Juwan Johnson, just to name a few. The same core in 2019 was comprised of guys like Ted Ginn Jr., Tre’Quan Smith, Jared Cook, and Latavius Murray... Not the fiercest competition Thomas could have faced for targets and touches.
And finally, let’s just acknowledge that David Carr is not peak Drew Brees. The former is a fine QB, but the latter is/was the most accurate passer in NFL history. Not to mention the league’s second most prolific passer in terms of yardage. Carr will likely produce and be just fine for the Saints, but we should not expect Brees (and Sean Payton) numbers. The former Raider has typically been good at feeding one mouth (WR), and Olave is likely to be that one in New Orleans.
If fantasy owners are still willing to gamble on Thomas, I do believe there is some upside in the scoring department. Which sounds strange, given that he has never put up double-digit TD in a single season. I would consider this stat an outlier, especially when looking at a few of his contemporaries: DaVante Adams, Mike Evans, and DeAndre Hopkins are all in the same age range, and they each have multiple 10+ TD seasons under their belt.
Thomas’ career high of eight TD would have barely put him inside the top-10 last year. But when given opportunities, he has always been reliable in the red zone. Last season was a small but perfect example: Three TD in Weeks 1 and 2. Carr is also used to targeting Darren Waller and/or Adams thanks to his time spent in Oakland and Las Vegas, and Thomas is at least somewhat comparable to both in terms of size, strength, and ability to make contested catches.
According to most outlets, Thomas’ current ADP is outside the top 100. And honestly, I find it hard to disagree with any of those rankings. I will only be targeting Can’t Guard Mike late, if I target him at all. There is just too much risk associated with drafting the former Buckeye, and I would rather roll the dice on a ‘lottery ticket’. Maybe I find the next Cooper Kupp? But if you are bold and decide to move Thomas up in your own personal rankings, well then I guess there are worse strategies than taking a big swing on a big-time player. At least you have proof of concept.
Regardless of whether or not Thomas ends up on one of my teams, I will still (and always) be rooting for him. Here’s hoping he proves me and the other doubters wrong, and enjoys a prosperous and productive 2023 season.
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