MC&J: Washington will try and stay undefeated in Week 10’s national action
Brett Ludwiczak via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
The Huskies will try and add to Alex Grinch’s woes. Plus, picks for seven other games outside the Big Ten.
Last week ATS: 5-7 (4-3 National, 1-4 B1G)
Season ATS: 74-74 (33-44 National, 41-30 B1G)
Last week was a bit strange, since I struggled with my Big Ten picks while hitting the majority of my national picks. Essentially we have a clean slate for the final month of the regular season as we are heading into November with a 74-74 record.
National games
No. 23 Kansas State v. No. 7 Texas (-4.5) - 12:00 p.m. ET - FOX
Texas was able to easily navigate their first game without Quinn Ewers, beating
BYU 35-6 last week in Austin. Maalik Murphy threw for 170 yards and two touchdowns against the Cougars in his first start for the Longhorns. Texas also got nearly 100 yards and a touchdown on the ground from Jonathon Brooks, as well as a punt return for a score from Xavier Worthy early in the game.
After losing at Oklahoma State early in October, Kansas State has started to figure things out recently, winning their last three games. The Wildcats have looked especially dominant in their last two contests, beating
TCU and Houston by a combined score of 82-3. If there was ever a team to throw a wrench into the Longhorns’ plans of winning the Big 12 to state their case for a spot in the CFP, it feels like Kansas State is that team since they have done just that to a number of teams in the conference in the last decade.
Kansas State 33, Texas 30
Texas A&M v. No. 10 Ole Miss (-3) - 12:00 p.m. ET - ESPN
Texas A&M is sort of that mosquito that keeps flying around. Even though you keep swatting at it, for some reason it takes forever to actually hit it. They pose no real danger, they are just super annoying. The Aggies hung around Alabama and Tennessee before losing to the Crimson Tide and Volunteers. Texas A&M does have a really good defense, I’m just not sure exactly how good they are because they haven’t played anyone with an offense quite like what they’ll see from Ole Miss.
If only the Rebels didn’t collapse in the second half against Alabama, we might be talking about an undefeated Ole Miss team right now. Quarterback Jaxson Dart and running back Quinshon Judkins power an offense that is averaging 474 yards per game so far this year. On the other side of the football, the defense is gaining confidence. After allowing 49 points to
LSU, over the last three games the defense of the Rebels has given up a combined 48 points.
I’m actually a little surprised this line is as low as it is. I know Texas A&M is a solid team, I just think Ole Miss is a tier above them right now. Besides, it feels like since Jimbo Fisher has arrived in College Station the Aggies always seem to fall apart in November. In three of the last four seasons, Texas A&M has lost at least two games in November. Lane Kiffin adds to Fisher’s November woes.
Ole Miss 34, Texas A&M 24
No. 15 Notre Dame (-3) v. Clemson - 12:00 p.m. ET - ABC
I’ll be honest, I just want to see Clemson keep losing games because I want the Dabo Swinney meltdowns to get funnier with each loss. The Tigers have now lost two straight games and Dabo is more worried about Tyler from Spartanburg taking shots at him on his weekly call-in show. Dabo and Clemson have lost the plot, and a home game isn’t going to save them this week.
If anything, Sam Hartman and the Fighting Irish are only going to make things worse for Clemson. Notre Dame continues their recent strong play as they win their third-straight game.
Notre Dame 31, Clemson 21
No. 12 Missouri v. No. 2 Georgia (-15.5) - 3:30 p.m. ET - CBS
This Georgia team is ridiculously tough to get a read on. Just when you think the Bulldogs might be vulnerable, that’s when they put a hurtin’ on their opponents. Then when you think they are going to steamroll somebody, it ends up being a one-score game. No Brock Bowers for Georgia? No problem, since last week against Florida Ladd McConkey made everyone remember just how dangerous he is at receiver.
I think Missouri is actually a pretty good team. The Tigers have a really good offense and an underrated defense. Too bad Eli Drinkwitz is such a whiny nerd. As much as I have been impressed by Missouri when I watch them, this feels like the type of game where Kirby Smart shoves Drinkwitz in a locker. Plus, I bet Georgia is a little chapped they weren’t ranked in the top spot of the first CFP rankings, so they’ll make the committee recognize this week.
Georgia 38, Missouri 20
No. 9 Oklahoma (-5.5) v. Oklahoma State - 3:30 p.m. ET - ABC
This will be the last installment of Bedlam for who knows how long since the Sooners are moving to the SEC following this year. Oklahoma enters this game heading in the wrong direction after their win against Texas. Not only did the Sooners struggle with UCF a couple weeks ago, last week Oklahoma was beaten by Kansas in Lawrence.
As much as I can’t stand Mike Gundy, a part of me wants to see Oklahoma State win this game just to see how smug he is after the win. In a way it’s like rooting for the bad guy to win a wrestling match. You know you’re going to hate yourself for siding with him, yet you still want it to happen. With the way Ollie Gordon and the rest of the Cowboys are playing lately, I actually do think Oklahoma State pulls off the victory over the Sooners in Stillwater on Saturday afternoon.
Oklahoma State 37, Oklahoma 30
No. 21 Kansas v. Iowa State (-2.5) - 7:00 p.m. ET - ESPN
This feels like it should be a prime letdown spot for Kansas after a huge win last week over Oklahoma. Were the Jayhawks coached by pretty much anyone aside from Lance Leipold, I would pick Iowa State to win this game. Even without their starting quarterback for most of the season, Kansas is still 6-2, and still has a shot at making it to the Big 12 Championship Game next month. Running back Devin Neal is a big reason for that, as he leads a Jayhawk ground attack that is averaging over 200 yards per game.
After starting the season dealing with the effects from a gambling scandal (ironic this is mentioned in a gambling article, right?), Iowa State has found their way lately, winning their last three games. Freshman Rocco Becht is looking like the quarterback of the future for the Cyclones, as he has thrown 13 touchdowns so far this season. For as good as Becht has been, I’m just not convinced Iowa State can pull off the upset of Kansas in this one.
Kansas 27, Iowa State 23
No. 5 Washington (-3) v. No. 20 USC - 7:30 p.m. ET - ABC
Michael Penix and the Washington offense against Alex Grinch’s defense is going to be a snuff film. The last time the Trojans allowed less than 30 points in a game was back in September when they beat
Arizona State 42-28. Imagine what Penix and the Huskies will be able to do on Saturday night, especially since Washington knows right now they are just on the outside of the playoff in the CFP rankings right now.
Really though, we could say the same about Caleb Williams going up against the Washington defense, which has struggled of late. This is certainly going to be a fun game to watch with a lot of points put on the scoreboard. In the end, Washington is the more complete team, which is why I think they clear another hurdle on their way to an undefeated regular season. After a couple off weeks, Penix gets back into the Heisman Trophy race with a big performance on Saturday night.
Washington 45, USC 34
No. 14 LSU v. No. 8 Alabama (-3) - 7:45 p.m. ET - CBS
Alabama head coach Nick Saban has done everything you could possibly do in college football. While not much can rattle Saban anymore, I feel like last year’s loss at LSU still has to eat at him after the Tigers won in overtime when they went for two after scoring a touchdown. The loss to LSU drove a stake through the heart of Alabama’s CFP hopes, as it was their second loss of the season.
This year LSU has been cooking on offense. The problem for the Tigers is their defense has been brutal. If Brian Kelly’s team had any semblance of a defense, they might be undefeated right now. Instead, LSU has lost to
Florida State and Ole Miss, and even though they could still make the SEC Championship Game, they aren’t going to be a factor in the playoff.
Even though Alabama’s offense has really struggled at times this year, we have seen it get better recently. I think the growth continues with Jalen Milroe at quarterback after last week’s bye week allowed them the chance to tighten things up even more. LSU hasn’t seen a defense as good as what they’ll see from Alabama on Saturday. While Jayden Daniels will make some plays, the Crimson Tide defense will rise up in key spots.
Alabama 28, LSU 24
Continue reading...