B1G Thoughts: Updated power ranking after nine weeks, with Ohio State No. 1
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Nine weeks have passed and the two biggest games of the season are almost here.
Every week after the Big Ten slate of games, I will bring you some B1G thoughts on everything that happened! This will include analysis, stats, key players, moments, and maybe a joke. With the Big Ten expanding from 14 teams to 18 teams in 2024 this article will also include the newest members, Oregon, UCLA, USC, and Washington. Check out the I-80 Football Show in the Land-Grant Holy Land podcast feed for more in-depth analysis and to preview the next week of B1G games.
Halloween has passed, but the scary part of the Big Ten season is just beginning, as we have two of the biggest games of the year yet to be played plus rivalry week.
This coming week Michigan plays its first real opponent when they travel to State College to take on Penn State. James Franklin is trying to break the narrative that he can’t win big games, and the entire conference is hoping for Michigan to be humbled either on the field or off due to the in-person scouting investigation. Before Michigan and Penn State play, let’s review the first nine weeks of the season.
Michigan has looked like one of the best teams in the country after nine games, but they haven’t played anyone with a pulse.
Ohio State is ranked No. 1 in the college football playoff rankings despite many people not thinking they’re the best team in the nation.
The Buckeyes are in a weird spot where they are a team being led by their defense while first-year starter Kyle McCord is trying to find his way. Former Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud is looking like a top-10 quarterback in the NFL, but he couldn’t beat Michigan. While McCord isn’t Stroud, he has a lot of pressure on him to win The Game.
Bryan Ferentz was fired after losing pace on the chase for 325. Illinois has disappointed, but that probably should have been expected with everyone they lost in the offseason. Greg Schiano is proving that
Rutgers was right to return to him as he has the Scarlett Knights bowling with three games left in the season. Can they make it to 8-4?
Wisconsin and Nebraska have both had good and bad moments under their new coaches but it’s fair to say they’re both headed in positive directions. With three games left, they both need a win to become bowl-eligible and leave this season with their heads held high.
Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan are fighting for a College Football Playoff spot, and the last three games still hold weight for a lot of teams.
Tell me if you’ve seen this before: Ohio State and Michigan are at the top of the Big Ten East and are heading towards a massive showdown on Thanksgiving weekend. Even the West is pretty standard. Iowa has continued to find a way to win despite being worse on offense than last season. At this point, the Hawkeyes in the driver’s seat for a head-on collision with whoever comes out of the East.
Michigan has a tough hill to climb to win the conference for the third-straight year, having to face Penn State, Maryland, and Ohio State in its final three games. Maryland is struggling right now, but they still have the ability to get going on offense. Nebraska, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are in the three-way tie to try and unseat Iowa, but they all play each other so that’s going to get cleared up.
The West has been fairly disappointing, maybe more than usual — which is not a good sign heading into the offseason and the 18-team Big Ten in 2024.
Similar to the College Football Playoffs, I can't put Michigan over Ohio State when they haven’t played anybody. I think Ohio State is getting more respect nationally than in the fanbase largely because they’re playing a different style. They’re a defense-first team with a quarterback who is figuring out the ropes and not immediately a Heisman contender in his first year. Michigan has been dominant, but it’s easy to dominate that schedule with or without stealing signs. If Michigan dominates Penn State my opinion will change, but I still think Ohio State is at the top because of who they beat.
Rutgers is making a surprise appearance in the top five of this ranking. I think this is largely a statement on how bad the conference is after the top three teams, but Schiano deserves a lot of credit.
Michigan State and Indiana are at the bottom and both teams should be in the market for a new coach. Michigan State already is, and I’m sure despite the bad PR they’re happy to be out of Mel Tucker’s contract. Indiana needs to accept their mistakes, pay Tom Allen his buyout, and try to enter the market before the landscape of the conference changes and it’s too late.
Purdue is in a bad spot, but it’s Ryan Walters’s first year and they lost almost everyone from that Big Ten West winning program. Nebraska and Wisconsin may not have reached the heights they imagined, but with three games left, they’re both on track for a bowl game. In year one, especially for Nebraska, that’s a major win. Iowa is going to win the West again somehow, but no one in that program should be happy about it. It’ll be interesting to see if Kirk swallows his pride and continues coaching even though his Athletic Director used her power to fire his son Brian, something the previous athletic director would never have done.
The Big Ten is bad at offense, full stop.
On second thought… I have one last thing to say. Just about every team needs to find a new offensive coordinator and update their offense to the 21st century. Especially the Big Ten West teams. This is sad, and if they refuse to change they need to be fired and replaced with someone who will adjust to the times.
Saban didnt become Saban by being static. He gets older every year like the rest of us, but he is always relevant and adjusts to the times. He does whatever it takes to win. Can the coaches in the Big Ten say the same thing?
The B1G is great at defense. These stats make you wonder, is the conference so good at defense because the offenses are horrible and inflate the numbers? Or are the offenses so bad because the defenses are so good?
I know we like to pretend that defense doesn’t win championships, but ask USC and Oklahoma how not having a defense went. Ask Ryan Day why he decided to pay Jim Knowles $2 million a year. Defense is a prerequisite to winning a championship and in a 12-team playoff where the Big Ten will have three to four teams every year, these defenses can make some noise. Still, the Big Ten will never win a ring outside of Ohio State and maybe Michigan if programs won’t invest in their offense.
I can’t wait to see the PAC-4 enter the conference and play these defenses, and I’m excited for *insert SEC School* to have to travel up north and play one of these defenses in the cold. Inflated numbers or not, having the top four defenses in the country and seven of the top 25 is an impressive feat for a conference.
Honestly, these statistics are weird. I fully expected Taulia to be one of the best quarterbacks in the conference. Statistically, he was second or third the last two years behind CJ Stroud, and despite the JJ hype he was the best returning quarterback in the conference.
Marvin Harrison Jr. being the best wide receiver is also expected, but after that it gets weird. Blake Corum having 16 rushing touchdowns is wild, but he hasn’t been super effective outside the red zone and Michigan’s run game has struggled. No one could have predicted Kyle Monangai leading the conference in rushing or Roman Wilson having 10 touchdowns in nine games. He’s cooled down a little once the non-conference slate ended, but it’s still a special season for him.
Defensively, Illinois and Purdue are all over the leaderboards. Purdue has two players tied with seven sacks, yet their defense is bad. It’s been great for Ohio State to get Denzel Burke back to playing his best ball after a down season last year. Iowa hit the jackpot in the transfer portal. Their offensive additions haven’t been great, but Jay Higgins is a major impact player and has a chance to be an All-American along with Cooper DeJean. Wisconsin’s Ricardo Hallman is a major ball hawk. I’m excited to see if he can rack up a couple more interceptions in the final three games.
Record predictions are a crap shoot, but what's the point in writing this column and not predicting final records based on all the data and the games I’ve watched. This has not been a great year for the conference, but I’m predicting they still have nine bowl-eligible teams with three who could sneak in if there are not enough 6-6 teams.
I think Ohio State wins out and stays the No. 1 seed in the CFP rankings, although there is a chance Georgia jumps them if they play and dominate Alabama in the SEC Championship game. While it’s unlikely, a win at Michigan and a close loss to Ohio State could propel Penn State into a CFP berth, IF the PAC-12 and Big-12 continue to cannibalize themselves and both end up with two loss conference champs.
Rutgers will go to the highest-ranked bowl possibly in school history. Illinois has had a down year, and if they can get to 6-6 — which is not what I’m projecting — I think they will consider this year a win. Same with Minnesota with all they’ve had to replace.
As I’ve mentioned, Northwestern, Michigan State, and Indiana should all be hiring new coaches this offseason. Indiana just has to recognize its problem and fire Tom Allen. Nebraska going 7-5 in their first season with Matt Rhule will solidify for their fan base that he’s the right hire. I don’t know their ceiling, but Nebraska is going to be a tough out with Rhule at the helm.
There are going to be a few teams who will wish they capitalized on this final year in the 14-team Big Ten, but it’s too late at this point. All they can hope is to finish strong and gain some sort of momentum towards the offseason.
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