What Ohio State needs to do on both sides of the ball to beat Tennessee
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It all starts with whether or not Ryan Day plans to be stupid on Saturday or not.
Football is considered by many to be the epitome of a thinking man’s game. It is as strategic as any of the major American sports and requires nearly a dozen men to work in concert simply to execute a single play. With all of the film study and game plans and technique work that are part of the daily lives of football players and coaches, I often feel like there is a distinct paralysis by analysis that happens amongst the biggest brains in the sport, especially when it comes to the man in charge of our favorite program.
But, let’s be honest, football is simple. The team with the biggest, strongest, fastest, most talented players has a distinct advantage in nearly every matchup, especially at the collegiate level. Obviously that’s not the only thing that matters, but far too often coaches, analysts, and #ballknowers try to make it far more complicated than it needs to be.
So, as the No. 6
Ohio State Buckeyes prepare to take on the No. 7
Tennessee Volunteers in the first round of the 2024 College Football Playoff on Saturday, Dec. 21 at 8 p.m. ET, I wanted to strip away all of the jargon (not that I understand it anyway) and get to two obvious, but in some cases under-the-radar, things that Ryan Day and his staff and squad need to do in order to set up a quarterfinal rematch with the No. 1
Oregon Ducks.
When Ohio State has the ball: Don’t try to prove you are tough by running Woody Hayes’ offense
When Ohio State has the ball, this is the part of the game where I am most unsure of heading into Saturday night; not necesarily because I’m unsure of what OSU is capable of doing, but that I’m unsure of what OSU will actually attempt to do.
Tennessee’s defense has been excellent all season. They come into the playoffs fourth in total defense allowing only 278.3 yards per game, fourth in scoring defense (13.9 points per game), eighth in rush defense (99.58 ypg), and 17th against the pass (178.7 ypg). So even if the Buckeye offense was operating at peak potential, they would be in for a tough battle.
But, friend, I’m not sure if you know this or not, but the Buckeye offense is not operating anywhere near its peak potential. In fact, you might say that the Ohio State offense is operating at “Eek! potential” following the demoralizing and exasperating loss to Michigan.
The obvious major issue for the Buckeyes is the beaten-up, continually reshuffled offensive line. Following in-season injuries to Josh Simmons and Rimington Award winner Seth McLaughlin, Ohio State is now without its two best players up front. Since those injuries occured, there have been further twists, turns, and surprises for the unit at nearly every opportunity, and that has not stopped heading into the postseason.
Ryan Day has essentially said during media availabilities this week that there will be different personnel moving in and out of the offensive line against Tennessee. What exactly that means, we don’t yet know. However, it did appear that at Tuesday’s practice, Luke Montgomery was at left tackle with the starting group, replacing Austin Siereveld who started against Indiana and Michigan.
Apparently, the collected media only saw one play, so it might have just been part of a rotation, or it could have been a smoke screen to confuse onlookers, who knows? However, I would imagine that Montgomery at LT seems set, but whether Siereveld kicks over to right tackle or Tegra Tshabola sticks in the spot — despite his disappointing play in the second half of the season — remains to be seen. Day has referenced a rotation, potentially involving all three. Seems like a horrible way to head into an elimination game, but I don’t get paid millions of dollars to coach the team.
Of course, all of these machinations matter in the micro sense as line play is integral to any offense’s success, but from a macro point of view, I’m just not sure that all of this isn’t a bit like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
In the full games since Simmons suffered his season-ending injury against Oregon, the Ohio State running game has put up decent numbers against bad teams and bad numbers against good teams — with the exception of having a moderately good ground game performance against Penn State.
Looking at these stats, the final two weeks of Ohio State’s regular season should be the most concerning. Against Indiana and Michigan — FBS’s No. 1 and No. 3 rush defenses — Day and Chip Kelly continually tried to force the square peg that is Ohio State’s offense into the round hole that is a
misguided attempt to prove that the team is tough and they were unable to really generate anything worth crowing about; fortunately, that only cost them one game, instead of two.
When factoring in strength of schedule, I think the Vols’ No. 8 rushing defense probably stacks up fairly well to the two Big Ten teams that Ohio State faced to wrap up the regular season. Tennessee is No. 1 nationally in defensive rush success rate; only 31.4% of their opponents’ runs end up having a positive EPA (expected points added). If Day and Kelly continue to try and force-feed the OSU offense in between the tackles, it should be a fairly easy — albeit cold — evening for the folks from Rocky Top.
Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m not suggesting that Ohio State should abandon the run altogether, only that they need to better take advantage of the talent at their disposal. TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins are two of the most dynamic backs in college football, so get them in space and let them make plays. If you are going to rely on the interior offensive line to make holes for them, you are going to continue to get the 2.96-ypc average that you did against Michigan.
Admittedly, two of Tennessee’s best run stoppers are its defensive ends Joshua Josephs and James Pearce Jr., so going outside isn’t going to be a picnic either. The former grades out at a team-high 91.6 in run defense according to Pro Football Focus and the latter is second at 83.8. While the interior of the d-line doesn’t grade out nearly as well, I still find it hard to believe that it wouldn’t have the advantage over its Buckeye counterparts. So, creating space for Henderson and Judkins seems like a much better proposition to me.
Obviously, Ohio State isn’t going to go from running the ball 54% of the time during the regular season to 24% in the playoffs (even though I think they should), but if they at least flipped their run and pass percentages, I think that would be a step in the right direction. If that new 46% percent of plays that are runs involved some of the creativity, movement, misdirection, and outside runs that Kelly employed early in the season, then I think it could be advantageous for the Buckeyes.
But Day cannot fall victim to his self-imposed traps that have undermined each of the last three seasons. Yes, I know that all coaches want a balanced offense, but, sir, your team — especially with these offensive line injuries — is not built to be a ground-and-pound unit. Your team has the best conglomeration of wide receiver talent in the country with a quarterback who has proven to be incredibly accurate for the majority of the season. Use it.
If Day, Kelly, and the Buckeyes are able to best utilize the offensive talent on hand by throwing to set up the run, upping the tempo, and getting creative when they run, I don’t see the Vols having a shot to win. The problem is that Day, Kelly, and the Buckeyes have been unexplainably hesitant to do that this season, so I’m afraid that it could be the Scarlet and Gray behind the 8-ball on Saturday night.
When Tennessee has the ball: Cornerbacks can’t allow big plays by catch or penalty
Despite Tennessee coach Josh Heupel’s reputation as an air-raid guru, this year’s version of his Volunteers is decidedly run-first. Tennessee has run the ball 61.4% of the time this year as redshirt freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava has had considerable ups and downs.
The beating heart of the Vols’ offense is junior running back Dylan Sampson who led the SEC in yards (1,485), attempts (256), and touchdowns (22). There is no doubt that Ohio State has to keep him in check, as I wrote about earlier in the week.
In both of their losses this season, Ohio State has allowed running backs to go over 100 yards on the ground, but neither did so in especially dominating fashion. Oregon’s Jordan James had 115 yards on 23 carries for a solid 5 ypc, but Michigan’s Kalel Mullings bested James by one yard to finish The Game with 116 yards on 32 carries, on a less impressive 3.63 ypc. So, given the fact that Ohio State has the nation’s No. 5 rush defense in terms of yards per carry at 2.85, I feel fairly comfortable in saying that while Sampson will assuredly get his fair share of yards, and will likely even have a few long runs, the OSU defensive front will pose a formidable challenge.
However, the part of Ohio State’s defense that has become increasingly concerning is the play of the starting cornerbacks Denzel Burke and Davison Igninosun. Burke is CB1 and he comes into his fourth season as a Buckeye starter having already had a career filled with ups and downs. He showed tremendous promise in his first year in Columbus, earning Freshman All-American honors in 2021. However, his sophomore season cratered as he seemed overwhelmed at times being the No. 1 guy in the room. His junior year was a return to form, earning second-team All-American honors.
Now in 2024, he has been solid.. not great, but solid; earning a third-team All-Big Ten recognition. On the year, receivers that he has covered have been targeted 36 times, leading to 30 receptions and 370 yards. While an 83.3% completion percentage is not what you would hope for from your top corner, the fact that he is only being thrown at three times per game, certainly compensates for that a bit. Those types of numbers would indicate that when opposing QBs do throw Burke’s way, it is often when he is not in press coverage, instead giving a cushion for a receiver to make a catch in front of him.
However, in four of the last seven games, Burke has allowed at least one catch of 20 yards or more, including a not-so-nice 69-yard reception to Oregon’s Evan Stewart. Not only did the Duck WR create ample separation from Burke, but then he was able to pick up an extra 24 yards after the reception, because either the OSU CB couldn’t tackle him or was more interested in trying to punch the ball out while being drug along.
These are the types of plays that the Buckeyes cannot afford to give up if they want to contain the Volunteer offense. We know that Sampson is going to eat, so if the secondary allows Iamaleava and receivers Dont’e Thornton, Bru McCoy, Squirrel White, and others to establish a passing attack as well, then it could become pretty difficult to get the Vols off the field.
On the season, Tennessee has only accounted for 33 pass plays of 20+ yards, ranking it 92nd nationally. Conversely, Ohio State is sixth nationally in the corresponding category having given up only 23. Jim Knowles’ defense has been a bend-but-don’t-break unit this season, forcing offenses to grind out drives before bowing up in the red zone if not earlier. If Burke — and other DBs for that matter — are taken advantage of regularly via the passing game, then that flips the entire script in Tennessee’s direction.
However, long receptions are not the only way that cornerbacks can give up big, back-breaking plays. OSU’s other starting cornerback Davison Igbinosun has developed a nasty habit of committing pass interference penalties in nearly every high-leverage situation possible.
On the whole, Ohio State has been incredibly disciplined when it comes to penalties, having only committed 52 in the regular season (good for seventh nationally). However, Igbinosn has been flagged 13 times, representing one quarter (25%) of the team's entire penalty output all season. Igbinosun has been targeted 42 times and has given up completions on half of those. However, when you factor in the 13 penalties, opponents are having successful plays 80.9% of the time that he is thrown at
The frustrating thing about Iggy’s penalties — and many of the completions that he allows — is that more often than not, he is in good position. So, I am not sure if that speaks to a lack of catch-point fundamentals, a lack of confidence in his process, a lack of awareness in the last moments of the catch, or maybe all of the above. But, for the same reasons that the Ohio State defense cannot afford to give up big plays through the air, it cannot afford to give up 15-yard penalties on passing downs, which fairly regularly extend drives that otherwise would lead to punts.
When it comes down to it, the same is true on both sides of the ball for the Buckeyes. They need to play into what it is that they do best, and avoid unforced errors, either from the players or coaching staff. Ohio State enters this first-round game as a
7.5-point favorite according to FanDuel, but many of the experts and analysts around the country will tell you to take Tennessee and the points.
If Ryan Day and Chip Kelly continue to insist on making the OSU offense something that even the most casual of viewer knows that it’s not, then I would agree with them.
If Denzel Burke is routinely burnt and Davison Igbinosun is regularly flagged as well, then I would likely recommend betting the Vols’ moneyline.
Hopefully the players and coaches come to the playoffs with clear heads and solid plans, because this team clearly has the potential to win the national title, but they also have the potential to be embarrassed in yet another big spot during Ryan Day’s coaching tenure.
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