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LGHL How ice cold fourth quarter performances are hampering Ohio State women’s basketball

How ice cold fourth quarter performances are hampering Ohio State women’s basketball
ThomasCostello
via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


Iowa v Ohio State

Photo by Jason Mowry/Getty Images

The Buckeyes could be left out in the cold when it comes to hosting March Madness should the trend of late game collapses continue

Across Central Ohio, the ground is blanketed with a layer of snow and building that frozen layer of winter are snowflakes. Each one different than the other but still coming together for the same frigid result. Basketball games are a lot like snowflakes, where each game carries its own twists and turns, regardless of the game’s conclusion.

Look at Ohio State women’s basketball over the past two games, and on the surface, the Buckeyes overcame the obstacles to win consecutive overtime matchups over Big Ten foes. However, pay attention to the characteristics of each game and how the Buckeyes found themselves in the position of needing extra time to dispatch their opponents and the stories are like those snowflakes on Ohio State’s campus.

On Thursday, against the Minnesota Golden Gophers, the Buckeyes built a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter. Then, with five minutes remaining, the Gophers started accumulating baskets on Ohio State defensive lapses and combine that with cold shooting and the issues began to snowball.

Minnesota, no stranger to the winter, felt right at home in the storm and scored 12 of the last 14 points before tying it with an open three-point shot in the closing seconds. Junior forward Cotie McMahon and freshman Elsa Lemmilä weren't bothered by the cold close to the fourth quarter and propelled the Buckeyes to a three-point overtime victory.

Then, on Monday afternoon, Ohio State gave up another double-digit lead, this time a 12-point advantage with 1:38 remaining in the fourth quarter. If the Minnesota loss was a slow moving front, the Hawkeyes were a blizzard.

“We could have closed the game out with free throws and we didn’t,” said head coach Kevin McGuff. “And so they made us pay and you know some of it was Lucy [Olsen] just made some incredible shots.”

Graduate senior guard Lucy Olsen led the comeback, hitting three shots from beyond the arc, each time the Buckeyes getting to the line in the bonus and coming up short, failing to convert five late chances. The former Villanova offensive threat scored 12 points in the fourth quarter to put Iowa back in the game.

“Lucy is a really good player,” said McMahon. “I think some of the shots that she made were just tough shots. Like that’s just one in a million chance.”

Ohio State iced the game in overtime, outscoring the Hawkeyes 12-4 with freshman Jaloni Cambridge scoring half of those points. Cambridge also went 4-of-4 from the free throw line to make up for 3-of-6 shooting from the line late in fourth.

Both wins keep the Scarlet and Gray in the driver’s seat for a top-four finish in the Big Ten, and with that a double-bye into the quarterfinals of the conference tournament. Plus, keeping pace to host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament with Ohio State coming in at No. 14 in the tournament committee’s initial top-16 seeding announced Sunday.

Despite the differences in how Ohio State got to the point where they needed overtime in consecutive games, one tough similarity for the Buckeyes to take is the team’s lackluster effort on the defensive end of the court. McMahon points the finger back at the team.

“Just lack of mental focus. I mean, we were doing everything right up until then,” said McMahon. “We just have to stay locked in the full 40 minutes. I feel like that’s where we struggled. Just our defense is still a struggle.”

Now, Ohio State has to prove that it can close out games, adding another wrinkle to the final four games of the regular season and conference tournament. In the regular season, two of the last four games are on the road, starting Thursday in a loud and raucous Assembly Hall against the Indiana Hoosiers.

Then, it’s a Sunday matchup against a Purdue Boilermakers side that’s shocked Ohio State in past seasons. Followed by a home game against the No. 22 ranked Michigan State Spartans who play their toughest basketball in the fourth quarter of games. It all culminates with a trip to College Park, Maryland to face the No. 21 Maryland Terrapins.

It’s a stretch that is difficult, but not impossible for the Scarlet and Gray.

“If we would have played the last five minutes of the game like we played in overtime, because in overtime we played really hard, we executed at a high level, we were together, we had great energy, great communication, but we didn’t have that last five minutes,” said McGuff. “So we’ve got to commit to that for closer to 40 minutes and I think we can close out games. But, you know, until we really get that we’re going to leave ourselves vulnerable.”

Should Ohio State stumble in the final days of the regular season and have another late exit in the Big Ten Tournament, the Buckeyes will have a more difficult road come March Madness. A tough thought for fans of the Scarlet and Gray who don’t want to be left out in the cold when the tournament committee chooses tournament hosts in the next month.

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LGHL How many losses is too many? Examining past “bubble teams” as Ohio State rides the line

How many losses is too many? Examining past “bubble teams” as Ohio State rides the line
Connor Lemons
via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here


NCAA Basketball: Michigan at Ohio State

Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

The Buckeyes have been metrics darlings this year, staying afloat despite picking up 11 losses.

It might not feel like it at times, but the Ohio State men’s basketball team (15-11, 7-8) has actually been pretty good this season.

At least, that’s what the metrics say.

Despite a three-game losing streak during conference play, a 38-point loss to Auburn, and a total of six games that were lost on the final possession, Ohio State has cracked the metrics code this season and is still viewed as a very solid team in the eyes of metrics like KenPom and the NET.

KenPom rankings are considered by the committee that selects the 68-team tournament field, but the NCAA’s NET ranking is even more vital to a team’s tournament chances. It is in the best interest of every team to remain high in both rankings, and despite racking up 11 losses, Ohio State is still in a respectable spot in both rankings.

As of early Tuesday morning, Ohio State was No. 28 in KenPom’s rankings and No. 30 in the NET. The Buckeyes are the only team with double-digit losses in the top-30 of KenPom, and the only team with 11 losses in the top-45 (North Carolina sits at No. 48 with an identical record of 15-11). Ohio State is also the highest-rated team in the NET to have 10+ losses, with Texas sliding in right behind them at No. 31 with a record of 16-10.

Bracket Matrix — a conglomeration of nearly 100 bracket predictions scattered across the internet, averaged together for simplicity — still had Ohio State as a 9-seed as of Monday night.

The Buckeyes have — thus far — avoided any crushing losses on the resume, with zero losses in the Quad-3 or Quad-4 categories. Right now Ohio State’s “worst” losses on the resume are home losses to Indiana, Pitt, and Oregon — the last two of which are still fighting for spots in the NCAA Tournament themselves.

On top of that, the Buckeyes have perfected the art of “looking good” in losses. No, it doesn’t look good to Buckeye fans when you have to overcome a 17-point deficit on the road at Wisconsin just to lose by two points in the final seconds, but to the committee it shows that Ohio State is on a similar level to Wisconsin. The same goes for Michigan, Pitt, Indiana, and every other close loss — Ohio State is not losing convincingly, and they’re beating the teams that they should beat (for the most part).

Because of this, the Buckeyes have slipped through the analytical cracks despite racking up the losses. With five regular season games remaining, Ohio State probably needs to win three out of the last five to feel good about their spot in the NCAA Tournament, right?

An 18-13 record, with a 10-10 record in Big Ten play, should get them in. But anything worse than that, and the Buckeyes may be tempting fate.

Syndication: The Columbus Dispatch
Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Even if analytics like the NET and KenPom still shine favorably on a 14 or 15-loss Ohio State team, at the end of the day human beings finalize the NCAA Tournament bracket, and those human beings simply haven’t put teams with 15 or 16 losses into the NCAA Tournament recently.

After reviewing the resumes of many of the “bubble teams” over the past three seasons (9-12-seeded at-large teams), I can conclude that no team with more than 14 losses entering the tournament has received an at-large bid from 2022-2024.

There were multiple teams to make it with a record of 17-14, however, so does that boot Ohio State if they were to say, end the season 17-15 but then win one or two games in the Big Ten Tournament to end 18-15 or 19-15? Probably not! Precedent is only precedent until something else supersedes it.

But still, 14 losses looks like the magic number that Ohio State should not want to pass if the team wants to feel good about making the big dance. Assuming the Buckeyes don’t win the Big Ten Tournament, that means they can probably afford two more losses in their final five games.

It also doesn’t look like the NET ranking of a team is as critical as it may seem. Over the past three seasons, there’s been a 9-seed that was No. 55 in the NET, and another year there was an 11-seed that finished No. 34. It’s clearly a factor, but resume and the raw wins and losses also matter.

For the purpose of comparing them to the 2024-2025 Ohio State Buckeyes, here are the records of each of the 9-11 seeds from each of the last three NCAA Tournaments, as well as their NET ranking on Selection Sunday. This includes teams that went to the First Four in Dayton and lost, and also includes 2022 Indiana, which somehow got an at-large 12-seed even though those seeds are usually left for the best mid-major teams.


12-seeds


2022 Indiana Hoosiers
Record: 21-13
NET: 38


11-seeds


2022 Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Record: 17-14
NET: 77

2022 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Record: 23-10
NET: 53

2022 Michigan Wolverines
Record: 17-14
NET: 34

2022 Virginia Tech Hokies
Record: 23-12
NET: 27
(Won ACC Tournament and earned automatic bid)

2023 NC State Wolfpack
Record: 23-10
NET: 45

2023 Pitt Panthers
Record: 23-11
NET: 67

2023 Mississippi State Bulldogs
Record: 20-13
NET: 49

2023 Providence Friars
Record: 21-11
NET: 56

2023 Arizona State Sun Devils
Record: 23-12
NET: 66

2023 Nevada Wolfpack
Record: 21-11
NET: 37

2024 Duquesne Dukes
Record: 24-11
NET: 80
(Won A-10 Tournament and earned automatic bid)

2024 NC State Wolfpack
Record: 22-14
NET: 63
(Won ACC Tournament and earned automatic bid)

2024 New Mexico Lobos
Record: 26-9
NET: 22
(Won Mountain West Tournament and earned automatic bid)

2024 Oregon Ducks
Record: 23-11
NET: 59
(Won PAC-12 Tournament and earned automatic bid)


10-seeds


2022 Davidson Wildcats
Record: 27-6
NET: 41

2022 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
Record: 25-7
NET: 23

2022 San Francisco Dons
Record: 24-9
NET: 22

2022 Miami Hurricanes
Record: 23-10
NET: 62

2023 Utah State Aggies
Record: 26-8
NET: 18

2023 Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 22-13
NET: 48

2023 USC Trojans
Record: 22-10
NET: 50

2023 Boise State Broncos
Record: 24-9
NET: 29

2024 Drake Bulldogs
Record: 28-6
NET: 47

2024 Boise State Broncos
Record: 22-10
NET: 26

2024 Colorado Buffaloes
Record: 25-10
NET: 36

2024 Nevada Wolfpack
Record: 26-7
NET: 34

2024 Colorado State Rams
Record: 25-10
NET: 36


9-seeds


2022 Memphis Tigers
Record: 21-10
NET: 53

2022 TCU Horned Frogs
Record: 20-12
NET: 44

2022 Marquette Golden Eagles
Record: 19-12
NET: 42

2022 Creighton Blue Jays
Record: 22-11
NET: 55

2023 West Virginia Mountaineers
Record: 19-14
NET: 25

2023 Auburn Tigers
Record: 20-12
NET: 32

2023 Florida Atlantic Owls
Record: 31-3
NET: 13
(Won American Athletic Conference Tournament and earned automatic bid)

2023 Illinois Fighting Illini
Record: 20-12
NET: 34

2024 Northwestern
Record: 21-11
NET: 53

2024 Texas A&M
Record: 20-14
NET: 45

2024 Michigan State Spartans
Record: 19-14
NET: 24

2024 TCU Horned Frogs
Record: 21-12
NET: 42

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Google Jake Diebler, Dusty May Pushing For Annual Home-And-Home Series Between Buckeyes, Wolverines - Buckeye Sports Bulletin

Jake Diebler, Dusty May Pushing For Annual Home-And-Home Series Between Buckeyes, Wolverines - Buckeye Sports Bulletin
via Google News using key phrase "Buckeyes".

Jake Diebler, Dusty May Pushing For Annual Home-And-Home Series Between Buckeyes, Wolverines Buckeye Sports Bulletin

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2026 College Football Playoff Discussion

Just sayin': Apparently there is discussion by the B1G and SEC for both conferences to each have 4 automatic qualifiers in the CFPs starting in 2026.

Sources: SEC, Big Ten to hold second AD meeting to explore CFP format changes and more

Is a 14-team College Football Playoff with multi-automatic qualifiers per league possible?​

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The SEC and Big Ten are scheduled to hold a second joint meeting of their athletic directors next month, where conference leaders are expected to deeply explore the future of the College Football Playoff format.

The meeting — set for Feb. 19 in New Orleans — comes a week before CFP commissioners meet in Dallas to discuss the future of the playoff, its format and governance structure. Those with knowledge of the meeting spoke to Yahoo Sports under condition of anonymity.

The SEC's and Big Ten’s gathering marks a second step in the budding relationship between two leagues that announced a partnership last spring. Their athletic directors met in Nashville in October, a historic event and one of the first gatherings of two major conference administrators in recent NCAA history.

The Feb. 19 meeting is expected to focus on CFP format and governance as well as the transition into a post-settlement world with athlete revenue sharing. The NCAA and power leagues’ landmark settlement of the House case is up for approval in April and implementation in July.

But perhaps the most interesting topic is the expanded playoff’s future format.

As part of an agreement struck last spring, the Big Ten and SEC believe they have authority over any change to the playoff format starting with the 2026 postseason, the first of a new six-year extension of the CFP. Changes for the 2025 playoff — unlikely at this point — require unanimity among the 10 FBS conference commissioners and Notre Dame’s athletic director.

While executives agreed on a future revenue distribution model last spring — weighted heavily for the SEC and Big Ten — a future format was not finalized. But certain “protections” were agreed upon, including an automatic spot for the five highest-ranked conference champions; a 12- or 14-team field; and qualification guarantees for independents like Notre Dame related to their place in the rankings.

The format is a divisive topic at times.

Many expect the Big Ten — and perhaps the SEC too this time — will again propose a format that assigns multiple automatic qualifiers to single conferences.
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Big Ten and SEC Discussing Possibility of 16-Team College Football Playoff, Regular-Season Scheduling Agreement

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Last spring, during intense and, at times, heated negotiations over the future of the College Football Playoff, leaders of the Big Ten and SEC threatened to create their own postseason system if they were not granted a majority of CFP revenue and full authority over the playoff format.

In the end, executives of the 10 FBS leagues and Notre Dame signed a memorandum of understanding handing control over to college football’s two richest conferences.

Soon, they are expected to exercise that control.

Within the SEC and Big Ten, momentum is building to further expand the playoff to 14 or 16 teams, assign multiple automatic qualifiers per league — as many as four each for themselves — and finalize a scheduling arrangement together that may fetch millions in additional revenue from TV partners, sources told Yahoo Sports.

The playoff format change would clear the way for SEC administrators to, finally, make the long-discussed move to play nine regular-season conference games and would trigger, perhaps, all four power leagues to overhaul their conference championship weekend.

These ideas and concepts, previously reported by Yahoo Sports as possibilities, are now serious agenda items within the highest governing bodies of the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC, according to officials from each of those leagues. The 11 members of the CFP Management Committee — the 10 FBS conference commissioners and Notre Dame’s athletic director — were contacted for this story, many of them confirming the existence of these potential ideas but declining specific comment on the matter.

Final decisions are expected in the coming weeks.

SEC and Big Ten athletic directors will meet Wednesday in New Orleans for the second time in the last five months. Big 12 athletic directors are expected to discuss the future playoff format at meetings this week, and ACC athletic directors, as well as the presidents, met last week in Charlotte, North Carolina.

The CFP Management Committee is scheduled to meet Feb. 25 in Dallas, where the SEC and Big Ten could present ideas for a future format — a consensus recommendation the two leagues may establish this week in New Orleans.

SEC's, Big Ten’s control and possible proposal

According to most who have viewed the memorandum of understanding from last spring, the SEC and Big Ten hold sole discretion on the future CFP format starting in 2026, the beginning of the CFP’s new six-year television agreement with ESPN that runs through the 2031 playoff.....
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The agreement grants the leagues decision-making powers over the format but directs them to have “meaningful consultation” and collect “input” from the other conferences before making their decision.

Leaders in each conference have spent the last several weeks evolving a format idea — multiple automatic qualifiers per league — into a more realistic proposal. The 14- or 16-team model would grant four automatic qualifiers each to the SEC and Big Ten; two each to the ACC and Big 12; and one to the highest-ranked Group of Five champion. It includes one or three at-large spots, one of those intended for Notre Dame if it finishes ranked inside the top 14 — a guarantee specifically designated for the Irish that is part of the CFP memorandum.

Officials describe the 14-team format as a 4-4-2-2-1+1 model in which the top two seeds receive first-round byes. There would be no byes in a 16-team structure. In either, the CFP selection committee’s role is greatly diminished. The committee, its future — as the memorandum stipulates — also controlled by the SEC and Big Ten, would presumably seed 1 through 14 or 16 based directly on its top-25 rankings.
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The data and revenue

The 14-team model — 4-4-2-2-1+1 — aligns mostly with conference strength over the last 11 years of the CFP’s existence, according to data compiled by Yahoo Sports.

Since the 2014 playoff, the SEC has had 52 teams ranked inside the top 14 of the CFP’s rankings heading into conference championship weekend, or about 4.7 teams per year. The Big Ten has had 51 teams (4.6). The Big 12 is next at 23 (2.1), followed by the ACC (20/1.8), Notre Dame (5/0.45) and Group of Five (3/0.27).

The data considers conference realignment shifts (ie: Oklahoma is counted toward the SEC figures, USC for the Big Ten, Stanford for the ACC, Utah for the Big 12, etc.).

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CFP executives used similar data points to establish the playoff’s new revenue distribution model that was agreed upon last spring. As part of that memorandum of understanding, the SEC and Big Ten each receive 29% of the revenue, the ACC gets 17.1% while the Big 12 receives 14.7%; the remaining amount will be distributed to Notre Dame (about 1%) and the 64 Group of Five teams (about 9%).

The new revenue distribution model shook the college athletics landscape for its disparities. In the previous revenue structure, the power conferences split evenly 80% of the CFP’s $460 million in annual revenue and the G5 received about 19%. Under the new deal, SEC and Big Ten schools will see their annual distribution triple, if not quadruple, to around $23 million (SEC) and $20 million-21 million (Big Ten)......

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