Ohio State Men’s Basketball Big Ten Tournament vs Illinois: Game Preview and Prediction
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Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
The Buckeyes’ five-game winning streak and NCAA Tournament hopes are on the line against an explosive Illinois team.
How about the Fighting Jake Dieblers, eh?
After knocking off Iowa in the second round of the
Big Ten Tournament on Thursday night, No. 10 seed
Ohio State has now advanced to the quarterfinal, where it will face No. 2 seed Illinois with a trip to the semifinals on the line. The two teams met one time this past season — an 87-75 Illinois win in Columbus on January 30.
Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask — two players who both were named First Team All-Big Ten this week — each had 23 points in the road win for the Fighting Illini. Bruce Thornton was held to seven points in that game, and Felix Okpara was scoreless.
The 90 points Ohio State scored on Thursday night was the second-most it has scored all season, but the elevated pace of play could show some effects on Friday as the Buckeyes play their second game in two days. In terms of tempo, Iowa is the fastest-moving team in the Big Ten at 71.4 possessions per 40 minutes, while Illinois is third at 69.7. Comparatively, Ohio State is the fifth-slowest team in the Big Ten at 65.5 possessions per 40 minutes, but has been moving pushing pace more deliberately since Jake Diebler took over.
Why is pace relevant? Because Ohio State might not have the lungs and the legs to run with the third-fastest team in the Big Ten for 40 minutes one day after running with the fastest team in the Big Ten for 40 minutes. That will make bench production paramount for Ohio State against Illinois, as Diebler will be subbing players in an out continuously, trying to keep guys fresh while also throwing different combinations at Illinois.
Jake Diebler’s Buckeyes have shown some versatility over the past four weeks, beating
Michigan State in a 60-57 rock fight but also out-running Iowa on Thursday in a 90-78 win. Ohio State has shown the ability to win physical, low-scoring bouts if that is what the situation calls for. It showed on Thursday that it can also go punch-for-punch with any team that wants to play in the 80’s or 90’s.
Preview
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
Ohio State fans were relieved when the Buckeyes wound up as the 10-seed and avoided Purdue in the second round, but beating Illinois on the second day of a back-to-back will be a tall task. The Fighting Illini beat Ohio State by 12 in Columbus two months ago, but the lead got as high as 16 and the Buckeyes were more or less out of the game for the entire second half.
Illinois finished as the runner-up in the Big Ten with a conference record of 14-6. Two of those losses were to Maryland and Penn State, so the Illini aren’t immune to an off night every now and then. What has been very on the money for this team lately, however, has been its offense. Illinois has scored 85 or more points in 11 of its last 15 games, and averages 83.9 points per game — the second-most in the Big Ten behind Purdue.
Meanwhile, Illinois’ team defense has taken a pretty serious slide while the offense has sharpened. Their defensive efficiency has slid down to No. 76 in the country, allowing 101.1 points per 100 possessions, or 1.01 points per possession. This is the ninth-best defense in the conference, while Ohio State is the seventh-best defense in the Big Ten (not impressive at first glance, but if you watched the Buckeyes for the first three months of the season, you know getting to seventh is quite the accomplishment).
Illinois has allowed some high point totals to a few middle-of the road Big Ten teams recently. For example, Michigan State and Maryland both scored 80, Penn State scored 89, Minnesota scored 97, and Wisconsin scored 83. Illinois was still able to win three of those games, but the fact remains that — like Iowa — Ohio State should be able to watch the ball go into the basket quite a bit.
The Illini are currently No. 16 in the NET rankings (Quad-1 win opportunity) and No. 10 in KenPom. Illinois has three players who are averaging 12.9 or more points per game while also playing at least 31 minutes.
- Terrence Shannon Jr. (21.6 PPG, 4.2 REB, 46.9% FG, 34.9% 3PT, 33.9 minutes per game)
- Marcus Domask (16 PPG, 4.9 REB, 3.5 AST, 46% FG, 28.1% 3PT, 34.2 minutes per game)
- Coleman Hawkins (12.9 PPG, 6.1 REB, 2.7 AST, 46% FG, 39.2% 3PT, 31.4 minutes per game)
When these teams met in January, that trio combined for 51 points. Ohio State won’t be able to stop all three from getting hot, but they can try to force them into taking shots they would prefer not take. That means forcing Shannon to his right and making him shoot threes, which is preferable to letting the 6-foot-6, 230-pound guard get downhill with his lightning fast first step and pick apart Ohio State’s interior defense. Roddy Gayle Jr. will have to work hard to keep Domask from breaking loose as well, as the 6-foot-6 Southern Illinois transfer isn’t a sharpshooter from deep but is very good backing down smaller guards and getting into a rhythm in the mid-range.
It will likely be Gayle guarding Domask and Mahaffey guarding Shannon initially. Look for the Buckeyes to send help on all post drives and force Illinois to kick it back out and rely on outside shooting until that strategy fails.
Also look for Devin Royal to get some extended run in this game, as he’s been impactful on the glass for Ohio State in spurts and could make a big difference in this one if he can stay out of foul trouble. When these teams met in January, Illinois out-rebounded Ohio State 36-28.
Prediction
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
Ohio State is playing with a high level of confidence right now, and truly believes that nobody wants to play them. The depth that people thought the Buckeyes would have at the beginning of the year is finally paying dividends, but is it too late?
After not scoring at all in the first half against Iowa, Jamison Battle exploded for 23 in the second half. Bruce Thornton came one assist and a few rebounds away from a triple-double. Roddy Gayle had an almost invisible 10/4/4, and Scotty Middleton came out of nowhere to score 11 points in the first half. Nearly everybody is playing well at the same time.
However, I think exhaustion could set in during the second half against Illinois. In a win-or-go home tournament, you have no choice but to empty the tank in every game, which puts the teams with double-byes at a big advantage. Illinois hasn’t had a warm-up game like Ohio State, but they also didn’t run back and forth with Iowa for 40 minutes yesterday.
Although the run has been improbable, incredible, and inspiring, I do not think Ohio State will have the horses to outlast Illinois. Domask and Shannon are big guards that create matchup issues, and at the end of the day Illinois is just the better, more dynamic team.
The Buckeyes will keep it close, but sending Illinois home will take a Herculean effort.
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: BTN
LGHL score prediction: Illinois 81, Ohio State 76
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