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LGHL You’re Nuts: Is it time to be done with “Crystal Balls” in recruiting?
- News
- 0 Replies
You’re Nuts: Is it time to be done with “Crystal Balls” in recruiting?
Connor Lemons via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Jeff Lange / USA TODAY NETWORK
Is the predicting game for the experts, or for the fans?
When four-star guard Dorian Jones committed to Ohio State two weeks ago, it happened under a relative cloud of uncertainty. Ohio State, Rutgers, and Missouri fans all felt like there was a possibility he might pick up their hat, because very little had gotten out about which way Jones was leaning.
One recruiting website had Jones “leaning” towards the Scarlet Knights, while other sites remained neutral and left his page blank — empty of crystal balls or predictions. Jones ultimately wound up a Buckeye, but it truly wasn’t concrete until that very moment.
Two days later, a longtime Ohio State football target, Justin Hill, committed to Alabama after being crystal balled to the Buckeyes earlier in the cycle. Losing a high four-star in-state recruit to Alabama understandably did not sit well with Ohio State fans. But what seemed to tick off people even more than Hill spurning Ohio State for the Crimson Tide was the fact that recruiting experts predicted he would choose Ohio State just weeks earlier.
But in the hours before Hill’s decision, many of those CB’s “flipped” to Alabama. Then, Hill chose the Crimson Tide. News of his decision spread in the hours before he actually announced his decision, and technically the experts were correct with their Alabama prediction... right?
Last week, Connor and Justin each picked which Ohio basketball recruit will be next to commit to the Ohio State men’s basketball program. Justin went with 2025 four-star guard Jerry Easter — originally from Toledo but now playing at Link Academy in Missouri. Connor picked 2026 forward TJ Crumble, a Cleveland kid playing for Richmond Heights.
Connor’s pick of Crumble was the most popular choice, getting 61% of the reader votes. 24% picked “someone else”, while the final 15% sided with Justin, who picked Easter.
Connor- 77
This week, we’re discussing the crystal ball recruiting tool. Is all the ruckus that is causes really worth it in the end? Are the “experts” actually as accurate as they claim if they’re flipping those predictions in the final hour once they hear something that contradicts what they previously said?
They’re never going away, but it’s at least something to discuss.
I don’t have an incredibly strong opinion on this, and I do understand the benefit that crystal balls bring. they are mostly conversation starters, and so insiders can pat themselves on the back, but I do see the benefit.
I just don’t really care. High school athletes get one chance to have their moment and make their decision. Crystal balls take away from their moment when fans already know where they are going.
It reduces viewership of the decision videos, which means fewer people celebrate with the recruit and the athlete. This is the only time in their lives they will get this moment, and it would be nice if they could have that for themselves.
It is a short explanation, but it is really the only point I want to make. Other than that, I have no issue with the crystal balls. I just think the athletes should get more shine.
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I understand the frustration fans have when an “expert” predicts that a great recruit is going to their school, and then is either flat-out wrong or pivots at the last second to a different answer to keep their pristine rating intact. It’s also frustrating when information leaks ahead of time and can potentially spoil someone’s announcement.
But at the same time, these writers at 247Sports, Rivals, On3, and so on are correct way more often than not. This ritual of top-tier prospects getting a stack of crystal balls to one school in the days leading up to their announcement isn’t something new — it’s just gotten more attention recently because of Justin Hill. And while they’re correct over 90% of the time (typically), the decision is never final until the player themselves announce where they’re going.
There’s a reason that, even when it seems pretty obvious where someone is going, thousands of people still tune it to watch a live stream of a high schooler sitting at a table in a dusty gymnasium with four hats sitting in front of them.
On top of that, recruiting is a huge sect of college sports writing, and the crystal ball/prediction portion of the beat is a big part of what drives subscriptions that continue to fund these websites. Even if you don’t love writers puffing out their “96.7% accuracy rating”, the insight they gather throughout the entire year is what contributes and leads into that eventual prediction or crystal ball. It’s a big part of these recruiting websites, and I just don’t see them ending any time soon.
It also feels like there’s a little bit of transfer portal-ish syndrome going on here. When a great player transfers away from a program, people curse their name and say they weren’t worth a damn anyway. When your team gets a great transfer, you brag about it for days.
When your team/school gets a crystal ball for a big time player, fans celebrate. When that CB goes a different direction (or the CB flips at the last minute), people complain and say we should just get rid of them altogether. That’s just how it is.
Continue reading...
Connor Lemons via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Jeff Lange / USA TODAY NETWORK
Is the predicting game for the experts, or for the fans?
When four-star guard Dorian Jones committed to Ohio State two weeks ago, it happened under a relative cloud of uncertainty. Ohio State, Rutgers, and Missouri fans all felt like there was a possibility he might pick up their hat, because very little had gotten out about which way Jones was leaning.
One recruiting website had Jones “leaning” towards the Scarlet Knights, while other sites remained neutral and left his page blank — empty of crystal balls or predictions. Jones ultimately wound up a Buckeye, but it truly wasn’t concrete until that very moment.
Two days later, a longtime Ohio State football target, Justin Hill, committed to Alabama after being crystal balled to the Buckeyes earlier in the cycle. Losing a high four-star in-state recruit to Alabama understandably did not sit well with Ohio State fans. But what seemed to tick off people even more than Hill spurning Ohio State for the Crimson Tide was the fact that recruiting experts predicted he would choose Ohio State just weeks earlier.
But in the hours before Hill’s decision, many of those CB’s “flipped” to Alabama. Then, Hill chose the Crimson Tide. News of his decision spread in the hours before he actually announced his decision, and technically the experts were correct with their Alabama prediction... right?
Last week, Connor and Justin each picked which Ohio basketball recruit will be next to commit to the Ohio State men’s basketball program. Justin went with 2025 four-star guard Jerry Easter — originally from Toledo but now playing at Link Academy in Missouri. Connor picked 2026 forward TJ Crumble, a Cleveland kid playing for Richmond Heights.
Connor’s pick of Crumble was the most popular choice, getting 61% of the reader votes. 24% picked “someone else”, while the final 15% sided with Justin, who picked Easter.
After 160 weeks:
Connor- 77
Justin- 63
Other- 16
(There have been four ties)
This week, we’re discussing the crystal ball recruiting tool. Is all the ruckus that is causes really worth it in the end? Are the “experts” actually as accurate as they claim if they’re flipping those predictions in the final hour once they hear something that contradicts what they previously said?
They’re never going away, but it’s at least something to discuss.
This week’s question: Is it time to be done with crystal balls?
Justin: Yes
I don’t have an incredibly strong opinion on this, and I do understand the benefit that crystal balls bring. they are mostly conversation starters, and so insiders can pat themselves on the back, but I do see the benefit.
I just don’t really care. High school athletes get one chance to have their moment and make their decision. Crystal balls take away from their moment when fans already know where they are going.
It reduces viewership of the decision videos, which means fewer people celebrate with the recruit and the athlete. This is the only time in their lives they will get this moment, and it would be nice if they could have that for themselves.
It is a short explanation, but it is really the only point I want to make. Other than that, I have no issue with the crystal balls. I just think the athletes should get more shine.
Connor: No
I understand the frustration fans have when an “expert” predicts that a great recruit is going to their school, and then is either flat-out wrong or pivots at the last second to a different answer to keep their pristine rating intact. It’s also frustrating when information leaks ahead of time and can potentially spoil someone’s announcement.
But at the same time, these writers at 247Sports, Rivals, On3, and so on are correct way more often than not. This ritual of top-tier prospects getting a stack of crystal balls to one school in the days leading up to their announcement isn’t something new — it’s just gotten more attention recently because of Justin Hill. And while they’re correct over 90% of the time (typically), the decision is never final until the player themselves announce where they’re going.
There’s a reason that, even when it seems pretty obvious where someone is going, thousands of people still tune it to watch a live stream of a high schooler sitting at a table in a dusty gymnasium with four hats sitting in front of them.
On top of that, recruiting is a huge sect of college sports writing, and the crystal ball/prediction portion of the beat is a big part of what drives subscriptions that continue to fund these websites. Even if you don’t love writers puffing out their “96.7% accuracy rating”, the insight they gather throughout the entire year is what contributes and leads into that eventual prediction or crystal ball. It’s a big part of these recruiting websites, and I just don’t see them ending any time soon.
It also feels like there’s a little bit of transfer portal-ish syndrome going on here. When a great player transfers away from a program, people curse their name and say they weren’t worth a damn anyway. When your team gets a great transfer, you brag about it for days.
When your team/school gets a crystal ball for a big time player, fans celebrate. When that CB goes a different direction (or the CB flips at the last minute), people complain and say we should just get rid of them altogether. That’s just how it is.
Continue reading...
Colorado State Rams
- By ScriptOhio
- College Football
- 2 Replies
Colorado State coach Jay Norvell accuses Ole Miss, Texas A&M of tampering with star WR Tory Horton
Jay Norvell called out several Power Four programs for trying to poach his star players.
247sports.com
Colorado State coach Jay Norvell accuses Ole Miss, Texas A&M of tampering with star WR Tory Horton
Jay Norvell called out several Power Four programs for trying to poach his star players.
College football coaches are becoming increasingly vocal in directly calling out tampering as the issue remains persistent in the transfer portal era. Colorado State head coach Jay Norvell most recently accused two SEC programs of trying to poach star wide receiver Tory Horton, who is one of the top returning players in the country at that position in 2024.
"I've had every team in America try to take Tory Horton from us," Norvell said this week at Mountain West Media Days. "From Texas A&M to Ole Miss, I mean, they've all been on him."
Tampering is prohibited under NCAA regulations, but the lack of enforcement against power programs is a growing concern. Norvell discussed the challenge Group of Five schools face in keeping top players from entering the transfer portal and leaving for opportunities at Power Four programs.
"If our elite players can stay in this conference, we can send a lot of really good players to the National Football League," Norvell continued. "Like I said, because of the way we recruit — we're recruiting NFL players. We're fighting like hell to keep them at our school for the next four years. If we can do that, we're gonna be pretty good. But that's the challenge. I think the running back at Boise (State), I think Tory Horton, those guys are as good as you want to find in the country at their positions. I really believe that."
Horton ranked 11th nationally in receiving yards per game (94.7) last season. He caught 96 passes for 1,136 yards and eight touchdowns for Colorado State. Horton led the Mountain West in receptions and finished second in yards receiving.
Norvell also mentioned Colorado State quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi received a sizable offer to transfer to a Big 12 school.
"He said a guy from Kansas State called him, offered him $600,000 because they lost their quarterback, if he got in the portal," Norvell said. "And I'm not accusing Kansas State of anything. I'm just telling you what the kid told me. If they don't want their name thrown in it, I think they should probably get a handle on their people. But there's a lot of that going on in college football, and that's just the way things are right now."
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continued
The Heisman Hype
- By ScriptOhio
- College Football
- 0 Replies
Ducks' Gabriel is Heisman fave in rare July shift
Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel moved past Georgia quarterback Carson Beck and Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers at ESPN BET and is now the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at +750 odds.
Dillon Gabriel passes Beck, Ewers as Heisman favorite
Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel is now the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy with +750 odds at ESPN BET after moving past Georgia quarterback Carson Beck and Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers in an atypical July change for college football's highest honor.
Top Heisman Trophy Odds
| PLAYER, SCHOOL | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Dillon Gabriel, Oregon | +750 |
| Carson Beck, Georgia | +800 |
| Quinn Ewers, Texas | +900 |
| Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss | +1500 |
| Will Howard, Ohio State | +1600 |
| Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee | +1600 |
| Jalen Milroe, Alabama | +1600 |
| Garrett Nussmeier, LSU | +2200 |
| Cameron Ward, Miami | +2200 |
| Conner Weigman, Texas A&M | +2200 |
Beck and Ewers, who had been the favorites since February, are +800 and +900, respectively.
Gabriel began July with 10-1 odds at ESPN BET. He had been as long as 14-1 at other sportsbooks before an uptick of action showed up on the Ducks quarterback over the Fourth of July holiday weekend.
The SuperBook in Las Vegas started receiving bets on Gabriel on Sunday, causing his odds to tighten from 14-1 to 9-1.
"I think there were some maybe influential people that hopped on it and said they liked it on some public spaces," Chase Michaelson, oddsmaker for the SuperBook, told ESPN. "It's people we respect that like Gabriel, and I think there are lots of reasons to like him."
Gabriel has put up gaudy numbers at Oklahoma and UCF. He passed for 3,660 yards with 30 touchdowns and six interceptions with the Sooners last season before transferring to Oregon, where he inherits what's expected to be an explosive Ducks offense.
More money has been bet on Gabriel to win the Heisman than any other player at ESPN BET. At BetMGM sportsbooks, the senior has attracted more than twice as much money as any other player offered in the Heisman odds since July 4.
Gabriel, at +750, would have the longest odds of any Heisman favorite entering the season in the past 15 years, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.
LGHL I-80 Football Show: The Top 100 Players in EA Sports College Football 25
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- 0 Replies
I-80 Football Show: The Top 100 Players in EA Sports College Football 25
JordanW330 via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images
EA dropped its list of the top 100 players in the game and it’s full of athletes from the Big Ten!
Welcome to a new episode of Land-Grant Podcast Network’s I-80 Football Show. On this show, we travel down I-80 to talk all things Big Ten Football. After every week of action, we will catch you up on all the conference’s games and look ahead at the matchups, storylines, and players you should be paying attention to for the next week. My name is Jordan Williams, and I am joined by my co-host Dante Morgan.
EA Sports keeps up the excitement for the revival of College Football 25, but first Mike Gundy puts his foot in his mouth.
Star Oklahoma State running Back Ollie Gordon III recently got arrested for driving while intoxicated, and at Big 12 media days Gundy decided the best route was to minimize the severity and danger of driving while drunk. It’s an internal decision on how a player in this situation should be reprimanded, but minimizing it was a horrible choice, and Gundy is deservedly getting negative reactions to it. As a leader of men, Gundy made a bad situation worse.
With the new College Football game a week away, EA Sports has us salivating at the mouth waiting for its release. This week they dropped their top 100 players and a deep-dive of the Road to Glory game mode. The Big Ten has 31 players in the top 100 headlined by No. 1 ranked player Cornerback Will Johnson from Michigan. In total, there are four players from the Big Ten in the top 10, with Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham joining Will Johnson and at No. 8 and Ohio State safety Caleb Downs and running back Quinshon Judkins at No. 5 and No. 9 respectively.
Depending on who you ask, EA left the best for last with its Road to Glory deep dive. While it’s missing the high school season aspect which is a major disappointment, they seem to have put their best foot forward with the rest of the game. You can expect real decisions that impact your player’s career, wear and tear, NIL, and they brought back position battles. Good luck figuring out if you want your player to be an underdog two-star recruit or an elite five-star recruit with high expectations.
Follow the show on YouTube: @JordanW330
Follow the podcast on Instagram: @I80FootballShow
Connect with us on Twitter: Jordan: @JordanW330 and Dante: @DanteM10216
Continue reading...
JordanW330 via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
Visit their fantastic blog and read the full article (and so much more) here
Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images
EA dropped its list of the top 100 players in the game and it’s full of athletes from the Big Ten!
Welcome to a new episode of Land-Grant Podcast Network’s I-80 Football Show. On this show, we travel down I-80 to talk all things Big Ten Football. After every week of action, we will catch you up on all the conference’s games and look ahead at the matchups, storylines, and players you should be paying attention to for the next week. My name is Jordan Williams, and I am joined by my co-host Dante Morgan.
EA Sports keeps up the excitement for the revival of College Football 25, but first Mike Gundy puts his foot in his mouth.
Star Oklahoma State running Back Ollie Gordon III recently got arrested for driving while intoxicated, and at Big 12 media days Gundy decided the best route was to minimize the severity and danger of driving while drunk. It’s an internal decision on how a player in this situation should be reprimanded, but minimizing it was a horrible choice, and Gundy is deservedly getting negative reactions to it. As a leader of men, Gundy made a bad situation worse.
With the new College Football game a week away, EA Sports has us salivating at the mouth waiting for its release. This week they dropped their top 100 players and a deep-dive of the Road to Glory game mode. The Big Ten has 31 players in the top 100 headlined by No. 1 ranked player Cornerback Will Johnson from Michigan. In total, there are four players from the Big Ten in the top 10, with Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham joining Will Johnson and at No. 8 and Ohio State safety Caleb Downs and running back Quinshon Judkins at No. 5 and No. 9 respectively.
Depending on who you ask, EA left the best for last with its Road to Glory deep dive. While it’s missing the high school season aspect which is a major disappointment, they seem to have put their best foot forward with the rest of the game. You can expect real decisions that impact your player’s career, wear and tear, NIL, and they brought back position battles. Good luck figuring out if you want your player to be an underdog two-star recruit or an elite five-star recruit with high expectations.
Follow the show on YouTube: @JordanW330
Follow the podcast on Instagram: @I80FootballShow
Connect with us on Twitter: Jordan: @JordanW330 and Dante: @DanteM10216
Continue reading...
