You’re Nuts: Will Ohio State patch up inconsistent defense during Jake Diebler’s first year?
Connor Lemons via our friends at Land-Grant Holy Land
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The Buckeyes haven’t had a top-50 defense in four seasons. Could things improve under Diebler?
By adding freshmen and transfers who appear capable of stepping in and scoring points on day one, first-year head coach Jake Diebler has put together a roster that has the potential to be one of the deepest
Ohio State teams (offensively) in the past decade. However, the Buckeyes have been one of the worst defensive teams in the Big Ten over the past four seasons, ultimately causing them to miss out on the NCAA Tournament the last two years. More on this shortly.
Last week, Connor and Justin looked at Ohio State’s now-complete roster and predicted the scoring averages for all 16 members of the team. Both guys had Bruce Thornton, Meechie Johnson, and Aaron Bradshaw as the top three scorers (in that order), but Justin had a much more top-heavy distribution, with those three combining for 47 points and the rest of the roster scoring much less. Connor had those top three scoring less but the guys in the “middle” contributed more.
58% of the people liked Justin’s estimates better, which included Bruce Thornton averaging 18.5 points per game. The remaining 42% sided with Connor.
After 164 weeks:
Connor- 79
Justin- 65
Other- 16
(There have been four ties)
Diebler added Aaron Bradshaw, Sean Stewart, Meechie Johnson, Ques Glover, and Micah Parrish into the program as transfers. Two of those guys are former five-star recruits, two of them have averaged double-digits in college for multiple seasons, and the last is approaching 1300 career points at the collegiate level. The scoring pop is there, but will the Buckeyes figure out how to cure what’s been ailing them for four years now — porous, ugly defense?
Connor: No
Here are Ohio State’s defensive efficiency rankings for each of the last four seasons, according to
KenPom.com:
63
106
111
82
Former head coach Chris Holtmann used to say that the goal every season was to have a balanced team that was top-25 in offense and top-25 in defense. The 2019-2020 team did that, finishing 13th in offense and 19th in defense. History has shown us that teams with this kind of balance typically are successful in the NCAA Tournament, but unfortunately, we’ll never know what the future had in store for that team, as that tournament was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
It’s probably not a coincidence that every Ohio State team since then has struggled mightily on the defensive side of the ball, and it’s also not a coincidence that the numbers I provided above ultimately caused Chris Holtmann to get fired.
After taking over for Holtmann, Diebler’s Buckeyes had a few great defensive performances, including holding
Michigan State to 57 points at home at holding
Rutgers to just 23 second-half points at the RAC. However, Ohio State also gave up 80+ points to Minnesota and Cornell, and committed 27 personal fouls against Illinois in the
Big Ten Tournament, leading to 32 free throw attempts for the Illini. That team finished 63rd nationally in defensive efficiency.
After the season, all three of Ohio State’s best defensive players left. Felix Okpara transferred to Tennessee, Dale Bonner graduated, and Scotty Middleton transferred to Seton Hall. Per
EvanMiya.com, Okpara was the 14th-best defensive player in the conference, Bonner was 27th, and Middleton was 29th.
The advanced metrics may not love them, but I think Ohio State will have two rock-solid defenders in Evan Mahaffey and Micah Parrish. The issue is that both of these players could wind up coming off the bench, limiting how much impact they can have on that side of the ball (their offensive ability does not necessarily warrant either of them starting).
Basically, I think Diebler’s intensity and the way he holds his players accountable will help this team improve defensively from how it ended with Holtmann, but I am not confident that the assembled personnel will create a team that’s locked in and focused on the defensive side of the ball at all times.
Maybe a fringe top-50 defensive team? Probably not much better than that this season.
Justin: Yes
I think the defense will be vastly improved for two reasons. They are Evan Mahaffey and Micah Parrish.
Defense is simple in college basketball. It is about buy-in and then having the right personnel to implement a good system. A way to make that easier is to have the right long and versatile wings to guard multiple positions and utilize flexibility on the course.
When it comes to the guards on the team, Bruce Thornton and Meechie Johnson are better on the defensive end than they get credit for. They aren’t going to win any awards, and they aren’t Aaron Craft, but they can hold their own. In the frontcourt, Aaron Bradshaw and Sean Stewart are both long and athletic.
Losing Felix Okpara and Roddy Gayle will hurt. They were the two best defenders on the team last year, and now they are gone. However, all four of the transfers who are likely starters are fast and athletic and can guard multiple positions, and that helps.
The problem is that they have to make such a large jump because, as Connor pointed out, the metrics of the Buckeye’s defense have been very bad.
To be successful in March, the Buckeyes will likely have to have a top-25 defense. The metrics show they either need to be that or have an elite offense. I think they will be very good on offense but not elite or the best in the country, so they will need the defense to step up and get better and get better fast.
But I do think this team is at least set up well to make that jump.
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