What gives me confidence going into this game is OSU's ability to win the big games, and Texas' ability to lose them. Take away Michigan (The same Michigan that OSU throttled), and name any time that Texas has beaten a team that they shouldn't have over the past few years.
I have gone back back to 2001 and posted their results. Their rankings are in parenthesis going into the game each time. I have highlighted the times that they actually beat a team that was ranked higher than them. This may not be significant to some, but it basically shows me all that I need to know. They can win games that they should win, but they come up short when it's all on the line........much like the Cooper days at OSU.......
2001
Coach: Mack Brown
Season: 11-2-0
Big 12: 7-1-0 (T-1st, South Champion)
Final Ranking: 5th AP; 5th USA Today/ESPN
Sept. 1 (#5) New Mexico State W 41-7
Sept. 8 (#4) North Carolina W 44-14
Sept. 22 (#5) @ Houston W 53-26
Sept. 29 (#5) Texas Tech W 42-7
Oct. 6 (#5) vs. #3 Oklahoma L 3-14
Oct. 13 (#11) @ Oklahoma State W 45-17
Oct. 20 (#9) #14 Colorado W 41-7
Oct. 27 (#7) @ Missouri W 35-16
Nov. 3 (#5) @ Baylor W 49-10
Nov. 10 (#5) Kansas W 59-0
Nov. 23 (#5) @ Texas A&M W 21-7
Dec. 1 (#3) #9 Colorado L 37-39*
Dec. 28 (#9) vs. #21 Washington W 47-43#
* - Big 12 Championship
# - Holiday Bowl
2002
Coach: Mack Brown
Season: 11-2-0
Big 12: 6-2-0 (T-1st, South)
Final Ranking: 6th AP; 7th USA Today/ESPN
Aug. 31 (#3) North Texas W 27-0
Sept. 14 (#3) @ North Carolina W 52-21
Sept. 21 (#3) Houston W 41-11
Sept. 28 (#3) @ Tulane W 49-0
Oct. 5 (#2) Oklahoma State W 17-15
Oct. 12 (#3) vs. #2 Oklahoma L 24-35
Oct. 19 (#8) @ #17 Kansas State W 17-14
Oct. 26 (#7) #17 Iowa State W 21-10
Nov. 2 (#7) @ Nebraska W 27-24
Nov. 9 (#4) Baylor W 41-0
Nov. 16 (#4) @ Texas Tech L 38-42
Nov. 29 (#10) Texas A&M W 50-20
Jan. 1 (#9) vs. LSU W 35-20#
# - Cotton Bowl
2003
Coach: Mack Brown
Season: 10-3-0
Big 12: 7-1-0
Final Ranking: 12th AP; 11th USA Today/ESPN
Aug. 31 (#5) New Mexico State W 66-7
Sept. 13 (#6) Arkansas L 28-38
Sept. 20 (#13) @ Rice W 48-7
Sept. 27 (#13) Tulane W 63-18
Oct. 4 (#13) #16 Kansas State W 24-20
Oct. 11 (#11) vs. #1 Oklahoma L 13-65
Oct. 18 (#20) @ Iowa State W 40-19
Oct. 25 (#19) @ Baylor W 56-0
Nov. 1 (#16) #12 Nebraska W 31-7
Nov. 8 (#11) @ #21 Oklahoma State W 55-16
Nov. 15 (#6) Texas Tech W 43-40
Nov. 28 (#6) @ Texas A&M W 46-15
Dec. 30 (#5) vs. #15 Washington St. L 20-28#
# - Holiday Bowl
2004
Coach: Mack Brown
Season: 11-1-0
Big 12: 7-1-0
Final Ranking: 5th AP; 4th USA Today/ESPN
Sept. 4 (#7) North Texas W 65-0
Sept. 11 (#7) @ Arkansas W 22-20
Sept. 25 (#5) Rice W 35-13
Oct. 2 (#5) Baylor W 44-14
Oct. 9 (#5) vs. #2 Oklahoma L 0-12
Oct. 16 (#9) #24 Missouri W 28-20
Oct. 13 (#8) @ #24 Texas Tech W 51-21
Oct. 30 (#8) @ Colorado W 31-7
Nov. 6 (#6) #19 Oklahoma State W 56-35
Nov. 13 (#6) @ Kansas W 27-23
Nov. 26 (#5) No. 22 Texas A&M W 26-13
Jan. 1 (#6) vs. #12 Michigan W 38-37#
# - Rose Bowl