Will JT Win Another NC at tOSU?

[ScriptOhio]

I'm still deciding between options two and three, as I think that both are more or less equally applicable. If I knew that there was a clearly better coach out there, I might give option four some serious consideration, but none of the big name guys (Stoops, Meyer, Pelini, Saban, etc.) have anything over Tressel, and with anybody else, you're getting an unknown commodity - maybe you get the next Tressel or Meyer, maybe you get the next Charlie Weis....

I really don't think that JT will win another NC for many reasons - his age, his coaching style, the academic/character restrictions in place at Ohio State (largely implemented by JT himself), and the luck factor involved. Look back at 2002 for a minute. We all remember Holy Buckeye and the PI call, but there were at least ten, perhaps as many as fifteen, game-changing plays that year.

01. Cincinnati - dropped pass in endzone with :48 left in game (UC down by 4)
02. Cincinnati - second dropped pass in endzone with :37 left in game (UC down by 4)
03. Cincinnati - interception in endzone with :32 left in game (UC down by 4)
04. Wisconsin - interception in endzone with 7:09 left in game (UW down by 5)
05. Penn State - Gamble pick six (only TD; game-winning score)
06. Purdue - Holy Buckeye (only TD; game-winning score)
07. Purdue - interception at Ohio State 11-yard line with :51 left in game (Purdue down by 4)
08. Illinois - dropped pass in endzone in OT (Illinois down by 7)
09. Michigan - sack and strip with 2:02 left in game (UM down by 5)
10. Michigan - interception at goal line as time expired (UM down by 5)
11. Miami - 4th-and-14 (kept drive alive in first OT)
12. Miami - the PI call (kept drive alive in first OT)
13. Miami - Krenzel's TD in first OT (tied game)
14. Miami - Clarett's TD (game-winning score)
15. Miami - goal line stand in second OT (Miami down by 7)

Ohio State rolled "seven" on each of those fifteen plays; what are the odds of that happening? If the Buckeyes fail to make even one of those fifteen plays, then they very likely would not have won the NC in 2002; if they go 60-40 on those plays, then they probably lose three or four games. Even a great team needs a little bit of luck, but the Buckeyes had an inordinate amount in 2002. I doubt that we'll ever see a charmed team like that again.

Given that JT will not get another incredible string of luck, I just don't see him being able to win another NC with his coaching style. He doesn't have a cohesive offensive vision, he doesn't use his offense to attack the opposing defenses, and he has struggled to develop a ball-control passing attack. Also, for whatever reason, the line play on both sides of the ball has been suspect from 2004 to the present - maybe that has something to do with passivity as well.

In addition to those 15 plays (above), I don't believe that we would have won the National Championship without this one (my #16):

16. On 3rd down, Dorsey connected with McGahee on a swing pass to the right side, but as the Heisman Trophy finalist turned to go upfield, OSU safety Will Allen came crashing into McGahee, sending him to the ground for a 2-yard loss. On the play, McGahee tore 3 ligaments in his knee and was out for the remainder of the game.

Which brings up yet another incredible string of luck in 2002. Other than Clarett missing a couple games (very minor knee surgery to fix a problem that developed in high school) I don't remember anyone else being injured.

:osu:

 

[Jaxbuck]

Which brings up yet another incredible string of luck in 2002. Other than Clarett missing a couple games (very minor knee surgery to fix a problem that developed in high school) I don't remember anyone else being injured.

MoC missed essentially half the season between the knee and the shoulder stinger he got at the end of the Wisconsin game. It was a big issue the entire second half of the year.

 

[daddyphatsacs]

I think he will win another title. My logic is the fact that he seems to succeed in years that many write off the team (2002). He will get one in one of those sneaky years. A year where the chips fall in to place, and he takes us on a fun ride. He will hoist that trophy at least one more time. If there is ever a playoff system implemented in his tenure, then I think he could get a couple.

 

[Mrstickball]

Yes.

OSU can't shame a stellar program like Oregon in the Rose Bowl, and not eventually have a repeat in another championship game.

Are there problems on the team? Absolutely. Is Tressel imperfect? Yes. But look around the world of football: Every coach can have his problems. Eventually, OSU will get in (I believe we'll be a one-loss team), and we'll out-play team with classic Tresselball, and get a victory.

Having said that, lets not forget that championships are very, very hard to get. Only LSU and Florida have had them since the establishment of the BCS. Tressel does a better, more consistent job than just about any other coach in football, and we are very lucky to have him. Could he and OSU be better? Absolutely, but no program has ever, ever, been close to perfection.

 

[ScriptOhio]

Well, 1961 (8-0-1) and 1973 (10-0-1) were also "undefeated" seasons, but they weren't "perfect" because of a tie.

Looks like you just missed out on the 1944 (9-0-0) perfect season, old timer....

Technically you are correct. However, back in the "old days" when they actually had ties (for winning percentages/conference standings) they counted a tie as 1/2 a win and 1/2 a loss (i.e. 10-0-1 would actually be treated as 10 1/2 - 1/2 or .955 etc.). Even though Gordon Gee called a 13-13 with Michigan in 1992 "one of a greatest wins ever"; I have always looked at a tie as 1/2 a loss (i.e. and not being undefeated).

And yeah, I wasn't around in 1944.

 

[OSU_D/]

To answer the original question: No. I don't think he will.

To echo LJB's post I think Tress is the single best ambassador/CEO of the program OSU fans could hope for. That said he is human and he has weaknesses.

I think the main weakness is a stubborn refusal to accept change along with excessive loyalty to certain people who probably don't warrant it (based on football only results, no dispersions on anyone's character are intended and this is especially for offense).

I fell off the "Tressel can do no wrong" wagon the night UF curb stomped OSU (not so much from losing, just the way we lost) but became much more critical the day USC humiliated the Buckeyes in early 2008. From that day since I have been willing to acknowledge the teams/programs shortcomings (sometimes probably a little too vocally). I have also tried to remind myself that we are all human and you have to weigh the good with the bad and, make no mistake, I think JT brings a ton of good to the equation. Overall I think the good still outweighs the bad and am glad JT is the coach.

I made my peace in 2008 with just being a regional power being a national power (perhaps I missed what you mean by regional power, but every time I think "regional power" I think of ESPN and the SEC snearing at us and thinking we aren't a "national power") and beating the hell out of scUM. That is good enough for me. I look at what I wrote and how could I not be happy with Tressel given OSU is a yearly national power and the team regularly beat Michigan. However, I see more and more people who used to go ballistic at the slightest criticism of JT now asking some hard questions. If that segment of the fan base is starting to sway the overall noise level is just going to keep rising, and getting back to my earlier point of Tressel being overly stubborn/loyal, I think that's where the potential for disaster lies.

If I had to handicap this thing going forward I'd say there is about a 5% chance Tressel sees the need for change, makes it and we see improvement. There is probably another 30% chance Tress just decides to call it a day on his own terms in the next couple of years and exits gracefully. Finally, there is probably about a 65% chance nothing changes, the criticism keeps getting louder and Bollman/the offense turn into Tressels Charlie Bauman within the next 5 years.

Your words were so similar to my thoughts I just made a couple of changes. All in all I voted #2 as he is a great ambassador and his teams are very good-to-great every year. But his lack of change and the repetitiveness of the same offensive issues showing up yearly are frustrating. To me the most frustrating thing is when OSU loses he'll talk about the team not executing and the opponent executing. At some point when the same issues show up yearly and the players are different, some of it is a fault of coaching and coaching stubbornness. Yet he almost never addresses anything about coaching and play-calling... losses are always due to OSU players not executing.

Anyway, to wrap it up.... Thanks, Jim Tressel; all in all I am glad you are the coach!

 

[Muck]

From DL...

Can we make another run?

Last week I did a blog about whether the Buckeyes could have won the national championship as beat up as we are. I threw out a few ideas about making another run next year. The one that kept coming back to me was the possibility of the most potent offense we have seen in some time. I put some more thought into that since I made that post.

.../cont/...

 

[Meyer]

I agree about the schedule to be honest. The harder schedule helps us. Losing one game in the B10 now means you will still have a great shot at the NC. B10 is going to be just as tough as the SEC.

About us making another run at a NC? Who knows really? I think I'll just choose not to get my hopes up and if it happens, it happens.

 

[Diego-Bucks]

I think that after next season, a one-loss Big Ten team will have the similar resume package to the one-loss SEC teams. That is to say, they will have huge considerations for BCS title games with the SOS factor. The key will be to have 1 marquee non-conf match-up with at least a top-40 team, and another match-up against a top-80 team. The other 2 non-conf teams ought to be as competitive as realistically possible while allowing for some tune-ups. The 2011 and 2012 non-conf slates for Ohio State are perfect in my eyes.

Imagine:
Victories over Miami (FL) and Colorado: two BCS-AQ teams (often teams play no AQ teams on the non-conf)

Big Ten Victories over lets say:

Wisconsin
Nebraska
Michigan
Penn State
Illinois
CCG victory over Iowa

and lets say a loss to Michigan State (the loss doesn't matter all that much as long as we take care of the division)

That is a 12-1 resume that gives me the chills. Of course a 13-0 Buckeye team has no concern...

 

[Mike80]

Trust.

The.

Coaches.

/thread

 

[LordJeffBuck]

It is interesting to compare the results of this poll with the pre-season poll, What Will the Buckeyes' Record Be in 2010? In the preseason poll, a vast majority (140 to 38, or 78.65% to 21.35%) felt that the Buckeyes would win a national championship this season. Now, a narrow majority (80 to 75, or 51.61% to 48.39%) feel that JT will not win another national championship at Ohio State.

I don't know if the discrepancy between the two polls reflects the gap between pre-season fantasy and in-season reality, or whether a lot of Buckeye fans truly felt that 2010 was "our year" and that we wouldn't get another title shot any time soon.

 

[Onebuckfan]

This thread disgusts me..will Urban Saban Spurrier Joe Pa Mad Hatter ever win another NC? or will RR Zook Ferentz name any coach ever win one? JT has the same chance as any coach on this list..going undefeated or winning multiple NC"s can only be achieved with some luck.Ohio State is now an elite program..getting to this level is almost impossible..only a few teams are in this class..if you get all your info from the Mark Mays of the world I feel for you.. I know an elite progam when I see it..just because the media doesn't slurp all over tOSu and JT doesn't mean we aren't elite

 

[Diego-Bucks]

This thread disgusts me..will Urban Saban Spurrier Joe Pa Mad Hatter ever win another NC? or will RR Zook Ferentz name any coach ever win one? JT has the same chance as any coach on this list..going undefeated or winning multiple NC"s can only be achieved with some luck.Ohio State is now an elite program..getting to this level is almost impossible..only a few teams are in this class..if you get all your info from the Mark Mays of the world I feel for you.. I know an elite progam when I see it..just because the media doesn't slurp all over tOSu and JT doesn't mean we aren't elite

Well, first off I voted that Yes, I think JT wins another national title. However, you didn't address the initial question. No one here questions whether Ohio State is elite or not. They are.

But does JT have the team in the near-future to win a national title? People see an increasingly competitive Big Ten and question if we are even going to be the Big Ten Champs with regularity. If you are not Big Ten Champs, you aren't National Champs. So do we continue to win the Big Ten?; do we do so with 0 or 1 loss; and do we get the "luck" necessary to win the title; lastly, do we do these 3 aforementioned tasks in the next 4 seasons or so when after that Tressel retires?

I don't think its "disgusting" to doubt this. However, I have the confidence in our current QB and the next QB, plus our better d-line and o-line recruiting to think we have the necessary talent/team to put it all together in a consistent manner and that once in the next 4 years we shall be invited to the NC game, where we will win it.

 

[Diego-Bucks]

It is interesting to compare the results of this poll with the pre-season poll, What Will the Buckeyes' Record Be in 2010? In the preseason poll, a vast majority (140 to 38, or 78.65% to 21.35%) felt that the Buckeyes would win a national championship this season. Now, a narrow majority (80 to 75, or 51.61% to 48.39%) feel that JT will not win another national championship at Ohio State.

I don't know if the discrepancy between the two polls reflects the gap between pre-season fantasy and in-season reality, or whether a lot of Buckeye fans truly felt that 2010 was "our year" and that we wouldn't get another title shot any time soon.

I think you hit the nail on the head. Pre-season confidence is sky-high; after a few injuries, a "lucky" win, or that initial loss will induce the in-season malaise/depression. Sometimes this is called realism. That being said, I still think we have one of the top 4 teams in the nation but I would be uncertain how this secondary is able to put a full game together against the other top teams. Now, next year becomes "the year".

 

[calibuck]

First of all, to answer the initial question, "it depends". On what, well, many things. To have a good team, certainly, in all facets of the game, well, yeah, and to have the good fortune to go relatively uninjured to the key players, definitely. Add to that the quality of teams you play against, the year they are having, plus the added luck of having other teams get upset that may cause you, an undefeated team, to be overlooked.

What looking in that category, it looks pretty darn hard to get to the championship game, let alone win it. However, Tress & Co won in his second year (2002), and was in it two years running. Pretty heady stuff for the first five years on the job. It raised the OSU faithful/fanatics level of expectation exponentially. Now we're putting out threads asking what the odds are that he wins another one. Some of you guys who are longer in the tooth than me, did Woody have these same expectations? I don't seem to remember that, other than, "Woody's team is stacked this year" from my Dad. That meant that he should win the B10, and the Rose (which translated into a national title, usually). Today is more complex, as we all know, equating the human element and the statistical element into the BCS rankings.

Anyway, I agree with the folk that appreciate that Tress & Co run a clean program, graduate many (most?) of the players, get them ALL prepared for life after football, and are acknowledged as an 'elite' program by most of the writers/pundits around (Mark May the notable exception). As a teacher, he and his staff are doing outstanding things with the young people, and that's why we are getting the 'elite' recruits, unlike Coop who promised them NFL riches after three years of toil.

I firmly believe that OSU is very fortunate to have a cadre of coaches like Tress, Matta, and the other coaches at the university. We'll never be a Stanford (winning most of the Sears/Director's Cups), but we'll always be competitive, and once in a while the Buckeye star will shine the brightest. And those are the days that we'll remember. Go Bucks - always!

:gobucks3::gobucks4: